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Future Of Technology

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A general futurist look at how linear, exponential and discontinuous growth is shaping the future of technology and what may be expected in key areas such as hardware, software, semiconductors, …

A general futurist look at how linear, exponential and discontinuous growth is shaping the future of technology and what may be expected in key areas such as hardware, software, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, life extension and virtual worlds.

Audio: http://feeds.feedburner.com/BroaderPerspectivePodcast

Published in: Technology, Business

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    • 1. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Christine Peterson Vice President and Founder Foresight Nanotech Institute Menlo Park, CA 650-289-0860 [email_address] http://www.foresight.org Liana Holmberg and Tess Chu OS Wrangler & IP Gadfly and Developer Linden Lab San Francisco, CA 415-243-9000 [email_address] [email_address] http//www.lindenlab.com
    • 2. Summary
      • We think about growth and change in linear, exponential and discontinuous paradigms, history is a chain of discontinuities
      • The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing traditional linear phenomena with exponential and discontinuous change
      • Computation (hardware and software) overview: Moore’s Law improvements will likely continue unabated in hardware; software however is stuck
      • Not only will there be linear and exponential growth in the next 50 years but probably also discontinuous change, possibly a change with greater impact than the Internet in our (current) lifetimes
    • 3. Paradigms of growth and change
      • Linear
        • Economic, demographic, biological phenomena
      • Exponential
        • Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Internet communities
      • Discontinuous
        • Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization
        • Impossible to predict
          • Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability
          • Market mechanisms
      Exponential Discontinuous Linear
    • 4. What will be the next Internet?
      • The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
      Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Virtual Reality 2.0 Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personal Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fab Labs
    • 5. Evolution of computation
      • Future of computing
        • New materials
        • 3d circuits
        • Quantum computing
        • Molecular electronics
        • Optical computing
        • DNA computing
      Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit ? Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
    • 6. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
    • 7. Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Drain Source Source Silicon substrate SiO 2 Insulator
    • 8. Semiconductor industry roadmap visibility Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
      • 32 nm in 2008, 22 nm in 2010
      • Molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm
      2007
    • 9. Software remains challenging
      • Abstract, difficult to measure
        • Doubling each 6-10 years
        • Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster ”
      • Large complex projects (FAA, CIA) failure
      • 19 m programmers worldwide in 2010 1
      • Solutions?
        • Distributed ecologies of software programmers
        • Open source vs. proprietary systems
        • Standards, reusable modules
        • Web-based software
          • Aggregating collective intelligence (tagging, RSS, presence), community platforms as the back end (FB, LinkedIn, MySpace)
        • Software that programs software
      1 Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481 Lady Ada Lovelace
    • 10. Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Fastest Supercomputer, June 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/7747 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
      • Estimated 2,000 trillion IPS and 1000 TB memory 2
      • Limited operational/build knowledge
      • Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 yr evolutionary adaptations
      • Massively parallel architecture
      • Understands flexible, fuzzy language
      • General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations
      • Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
      • Blue Gene/L 360 teraFLOPS ( ≈ .36+ trillion IPS) and 32 TiB memory 1
      • Unlimited operational/build knowledge
      • Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months
      • Linear, Von Neumann architecture
      • Understands rigid language
      • Special purpose solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
      • Metal chassis, easy to backup
      Human Machine
    • 11. Artificial intelligence: current status
      • Approaches
        • Symbolic, statistical, learning algorithms, physical/mechanistic, hybrid
      • Current initiatives and funding
        • Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate
        • Strong AI: startup efforts
      • Near-term applications
        • Auditory: speech recognition
        • Visual: security camera (crowbar/gift)
        • Physical: buildings and transportation
      • Format
        • Robotic (Roomba, mower, vehicles)
        • Distributed physical presence
        • Non-corporeal
      Kismet Stanley
    • 12. Molecular nanotechnology
      • Definition: not work at the nano scale or with atoms in 2D but 3D molecular placement in atomically correct structures
      • Scale
        • Human hair: 80,000 nm
        • Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm
        • Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm
      • Microscopy tools
      Sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org, http://www.rfreitas.com
    • 13. Personal fab labs and 3D printing
      • Community fabs, o/s designs
        • MIT Fab Labs
        • Make, TechShop (Menlo Park)
      • 3d printing
        • Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil
      • Personal manufacturing
        • Ponoko (platform)
        • Fabjectory
      http://reprap.org 3D printed plastic avatars RepRap Evil Labs http://www.evilmadscientist.com/ http://fab.cba.mit.edu/about MIT Fab Labs http://www.fabathome.org [email_address]
    • 14. Biotechnology, hacking biology
      • Biology: an information science
        • Genomics, proteomics, metabolomics
      • Faster than Moore’s Law
        • Sequencing and synthesizing
        • X Prize for Genomics
          • $10M to sequence 100 human genomes in 10 days
      • Personalized medicine
      • RNAi, protein folding
      • Cure vs. enhancement
      Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf
    • 15. Anti-aging, life extension and immortality
      • Aging is a pathology
        • Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural
      • Aubrey de Grey
        • Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) and escape velocity
        • Cancer-causing nuclear mutations
        • Mitochondrial mutations
        • Intracellular junk
        • Extracellular junk
        • Cell loss
        • Cell senescence
        • Extracellular crosslinks
      • Life expectancy test
      http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.methuselahmouse.org/ Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
    • 16. Human body 2.0, 3.0
      • Redesign: the digestive system is rebuilt
        • Auto-nourishment via clothing
        • Nanobots go in and out of the skin cycling nutrients and waste
        • Digestive system and blood based nanobots supply precise nutrients
        • Eating becomes like sex, no biological impact, just for fun
      • Redesign: the heart is optional
        • Obsolete organs, heart, lungs, blood; nanobots delivering oxygen to the cells, don’t require liquid-based medium
      • Two systems left
        • Upper esophagus, mouth and brain
        • Skin, muscle, skeleton and their parts of the nervous system
      Sources: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, http://lifeboat.com/ex/human.body.version.2.0
    • 17. Virtual worlds, 3D and simulation
      • Increasing demand for streaming video, data visualization and 3D data display: learning, work and play
        • Simulation and augmented reality
      • Increasingly detailed capture of reality
        • Geospatialization: Google Earth, Nasa World Wind
        • Life capture, life logging
      • Virtual worlds explosion
        • MMORPG video games and interactive worlds
        • Participants: enterprise, education, government
        • Activities: interacting, collaborating, prototyping
      • Virtual reality 2.0: biofeedback, touch, taste, smell
      Wild Divine
    • 18. Affordable space launch
      • Commercial payload launch
      • Space elevator
      • Sub-orbital human flight
        • Spaceport development
      • Extra-orbital robotic missions
      • International participation
      • Agency partnership
      • Prizes stimulate development
      Peggy Whitson Pam Melroy
    • 19. What will be the next Internet?
      • The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
      Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Virtual Reality 2.0 Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personal Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fab Labs
    • 20. Summary
      • We think about growth and change in linear, exponential and discontinuous paradigms, history is a chain of discontinuities
      • The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing traditional linear phenomena with exponential and discontinuous change
      • Computation (hardware and software) overview: Moore’s Law improvements will likely continue unabated in hardware; software however is stuck
      • Not only will there be linear and exponential growth in the next 50 years but probably also discontinuous change, possibly a change with greater impact than the Internet in our (current) lifetimes
    • 21. Thank you Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    • 22. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Futurist MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA 415-505-4426 [email_address] http//www.melanieswan.com Christine Peterson Vice President and Founder Foresight Nanotech Institute Menlo Park, CA 650-289-0860 [email_address] http://www.foresight.org Liana Holmberg and Tess Chu OS Wrangler & IP Gadfly and Developer Linden Lab San Francisco, CA 415-243-9000 [email_address] [email_address] http//www.lindenlab.com