Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Singularity University August 5, 2009 GA11: 9-12 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Summary
A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies
Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009
Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized
Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change
Image credit: Fausto de Martini

Singularity University Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship
Unifying frameworks and track synthesis

Sequence of discontinuities Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities arrive
Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Intelligence augmentation Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives time 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis

Paradigms of growth and change
Linear
Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential
Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications
Discontinuous
Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization
Impossible to predict
Rapid transition time and doubling capability
Adjacent technology advances
Level of engagement
Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Exponential Discontinuous Linear

First principles (implied by historical trends)
Increase in humaneness
Slavery, smoking, saturated fat, dentistry
Increase in abundance
Segment expansion (TIVO wedge)
Radio/music sales, TV/YouTube
Multiple choices, not either/or
Expanded possibilities
Ex: more habitable places: deserts, poles, seasteading, airsteading
Intervention (vs. interference)
Inter-societal knowledge

Evolving concept of science Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

Evolving concept of health Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 A consumer-centric model of health care Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492

Extensibility of Moore’s Law Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither

ITRS semiconductor roadmap Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
2007: 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011
2009: 32 nm shifted out to 2010
2009 2010 X

Computing paradigm shifts Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither ?

Evolving computational models Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery

End of Moore’s Law problem: when does top-down meet bottom-up? Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009
Top-down solutions
Block copolymer lithography
CNT transistors
Memristor
Quantum-dot cellular automata
Plasmonic materials & spintronics
Quilt packaging & 3D stacking
Bottom-up solutions
DNA self-assembly
DNA computing
DNA-based transistors
3D DNA nanocrystals
Molecular memory
Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller

Arms race for the future of intelligence Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human
IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge
Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months
Linear, von Neumann architecture
Understands rigid language
Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
Metal chassis, easy to backup
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2
Limited operational/build knowledge
Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations
Massively parallel architecture
Understands flexible, fuzzy language
General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations
Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

Engineering life into technology Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 2029 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Biomolecular interface convergence

Summary
A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies
Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized
Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop
World’s top venture capitalists
5 teams
Each team has $1b to invest
Round 1: 2009-2020
Round 1: 2020-2030
Round 3: 2030-2040
Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Image credit: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship
Original ten Singularity University tracks

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Nanotechnology Life Sciences AI, Robotics, Networks and Computing Systems Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems
You are the world’s leading venture capitalist…

Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan

by lablogga on Jul 31, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 2

Statistics

Discontinuity Futures Simulation Swan — Presentation Transcript