Futures Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com August 5, 2009 GA12: 2:30-5:30 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis

Summary Futures thinking requires seeing the interlinkage and gestalt in multiple areas of rapid change The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances are realized Technology growth may be linear, exponential or discontinuous The surprise is not the advent of the technology but the pervasiveness of its impact Image: Fausto de Martini

Futures thinking requires seeing the interlinkage and gestalt in multiple areas of rapid change

The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances are realized

Technology growth may be linear, exponential or discontinuous

The surprise is not the advent of the technology but the pervasiveness of its impact

Futures frameworks Dimensional Chronological Growth paradigms Historical trends Conceptual shifts Underlying drivers Evolution Image: http://www.newsin3d.com Image: http://www.secondlife.com

Dimensional

Chronological

Growth paradigms

Historical trends

Conceptual shifts

Underlying drivers

Evolution

Singularity University: dimensional model Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship A unifying framework for track synthesis

A unifying framework for track synthesis

Chronological sequence of advances The ultimate future depends on the order in which changes arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives time 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1gb broadband Battery innovation

The ultimate future depends on the order in which changes arrive

Paradigms of growth and change Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization Difficult to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Level of engagement Exponential Discontinuous Linear

Linear

Economic, demographic, life span phenomena

Exponential

Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications

Discontinuous

Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization

Difficult to predict

Rapid transition time and doubling capability

Adjacent technology advances

Level of engagement

First principles (implied by historical trends) Increase in humaneness Slavery, capital punishment Increase in awareness Smoking, trans fat Increase in abundance Segment expansion (TiVo wedge) Multiple choices, not either/or New possibilities Ex: more habitable places: deserts, poles, seasteading, airsteading Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com

Increase in humaneness

Slavery, capital punishment

Increase in awareness

Smoking, trans fat

Increase in abundance

Segment expansion (TiVo wedge)

Multiple choices, not either/or

New possibilities

Ex: more habitable places: deserts, poles, seasteading, airsteading

Evolving concept of science Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

Evolving concept of health A consumer-centric model of health care Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492

Underlying drivers: core technologies Penryn (45 nm) Core 2 (65 nm) Transistors per microprocessor 2010 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) Sandy Bridge (est.)

Computing paradigm shifts Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither ?

Evolving computational models Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based

ITRS semiconductor roadmap Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf 2007: 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011 2009: 32 nm shifted out to 2010 2009 2010 X

2007: 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011

2009: 32 nm shifted out to 2010

End of Moore’s Law problem: when does top-down meet bottom-up? Top-down solutions EUV and block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA: Holliday junction Rotaxane Molecular propeller Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html

Top-down solutions

EUV and block copolymer lithography

CNT transistors

Memristor

Quantum-dot cellular automata

Plasmonic materials & spintronics

Quilt packaging & 3D stacking

Bottom-up solutions

DNA self-assembly

DNA computing

DNA-based transistors

3D DNA nanocrystals

Molecular memory

Evolution: arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup Human Machine

An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2

Limited operational/build knowledge

Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations

Massively parallel architecture

Understands flexible, fuzzy language

General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations

Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1

Unlimited operational/build knowledge

Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months

Linear, von Neumann architecture

Understands rigid language

Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)

Metal chassis, easy to backup

Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

Engineering life into technology 2029 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Biomolecular interface convergence

Futures frameworks review 1. Dimensional 2. Chronological 3. Growth paradigms 4. Principles 5. Conceptual shifts 6. Drivers 7. Evolution

Summary Futures thinking requires seeing the interlinkage and gestalt in multiple areas of rapid change The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances are realized Technology growth may be linear, exponential or discontinuous The surprise is not the advent of the technology but the pervasiveness of its impact Image: sjhoward.co.uk

Futures thinking requires seeing the interlinkage and gestalt in multiple areas of rapid change

The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances are realized

Technology growth may be linear, exponential or discontinuous

The surprise is not the advent of the technology but the pervasiveness of its impact

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop Nanotechnology Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement AI and Robotics Space and Physical Sciences Energy and Ecological Systems Networks and Computing Systems Futures Studies Policy Law and Ethics Finance and Entrepreneurship Original ten Singularity University tracks

Original ten Singularity University tracks

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop STR - Futures, Policy, Law, Ethics and Finance NAN - Nanotechnology LIF - Life Sciences SPA - Space, Science, Energy and Ecology AIC - AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications You are the world’s leading venture capitalist…

You are the world’s leading venture capitalist…

Discontinuity futures simulation workshop World’s top venture capitalists 5 teams Each team has $1b to invest Round 1: 2009-2020 Each team creates two future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams Each person votes by investing in the top technologies Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

World’s top venture capitalists

5 teams

Each team has $1b to invest

Round 1: 2009-2020

Each team creates two future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams

Each person votes by investing in the top technologies

Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment

Prediction markets Value: expose hidden information Event prediction Opinion Risk preference Question design Requirements Liquidity Successful deployment Specific use cases Trader vs. friend Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring Image: http://discovermagazine.com

Value: expose hidden information

Event prediction

Opinion

Risk preference

Question design

Requirements

Liquidity

Successful deployment

Specific use cases

Trader vs. friend

Structure

Event outcome (win/loss)

Market scoring

Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group 415-505-4426 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/