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Intel - 4G WiMax in DC Metro
 

Intel - 4G WiMax in DC Metro

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Industry Analysis, business case, and technical design for 4G WiMax in the DMV Metrorail system.

Industry Analysis, business case, and technical design for 4G WiMax in the DMV Metrorail system.

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    Intel - 4G WiMax in DC Metro Intel - 4G WiMax in DC Metro Presentation Transcript

    • April 2010
      The WiMAX Experience
      A Case for the DC MetroRail System
      1
    • 2
      Overview
      • Trends in Mobility
      • 3G, 3G-LTE, and 4G
      • Wireless Telecommunications: User Expectations
      • Industry Profile: The End-User
      • Industry Profile: Major Players & Market shares
      • Strategic Assumptions
      • DC Metro Overview
      • Costs & Timeline
      • Marketing Plan
      • Conclusion
      A Case for WiMax
    • 3
      3G, 3G-LTE, and 4G – Key Points
      Special reports regarding industry postion(s) from CNN Money (2009)
      • True 4G must generate speeds of at least 100 megabits per second, according to the International Telecommunication Union
      • AT&T said it is continuing to invest in its 3G network; improvements will double its 3G network's speed to 7 megabits per second
      • 60%+ say 4G applications will enable mobile providers to sell ads and generate profits
      • LTE networks will cost $8 billion to build over the next three to five years and would increase carriers' operating expenses by 30% - hidden costs can include $9 billion (Verizon) for the spectrum rights to deploy its network
      *Source:
      • http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/09/technology/sprint_clearwire_wimax.breakingviews/index.htm
      • http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/08/18/4g-hype-time-for-a-reality-check/
      • http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/technology/4g_networks/index.htm
      A Case for WiMax
    • 4
      Trends in Mobility
      • Providers of Smartphones, Tablet PCs, Netbooks, and similar devices specialize product development for “wireless access”
      • Industry trends and consumer expectations lean towards “transforming the mobile lifestyle” (from Standard & Poors)
      • 10 year wireless telecom subscriber increase (1999-2009) from 76.2M to 276.6M
      • Unlimited usage plans for service/data a standard
      • Prepaid Plans have forecasted CAGR of 8.2% through 2013 (71.8M subscribers); attract youth, offer cool phones with easy access to entertainment and media
      • Data Plans fuel US Carrier revenues; the move towards 4G represents the first time all major service providers (potentially) will use a common network
      A Case for WiMax
    • Trends in Mobility: Current 3G Technology
      3G Spread into 3 major platforms
      Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA)
      University Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS)
      Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO)
      5
      Speed
      (DL / UL)
      3.1 Mbps / 1.8 Mbps
      A Case for WiMax
      Mobility
      High
      < 3 miles
      Coverage
      Time to Mass Market
      Currently available
    • 6
      3G, 3G-LTE, and 4G – Key Points
      Special reports regarding industry postion(s) from CNN Money (2009)
      • True 4G must generate speeds of at least 100 megabits per second, according to the International Telecommunication Union
      • AT&T said it is continuing to invest in its 3G network; improvements will double its 3G network's speed to 7 megabits per second
      • 60%+ say 4G applications will enable mobile providers to sell ads and generate profits
      • LTE networks will cost $8 billion to build over the next three to five years and would increase carriers' operating expenses by 30% - hidden costs can include $9 billion (Verizon) for the spectrum rights to deploy its network
      • Verizon Wireless & AT&T have both announced LTE plans in the next two years; Verizon said it would reach 100 million people; AT&T plans on deploying its network in 2011
      *Source:
      • http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/09/technology/sprint_clearwire_wimax.breakingviews/index.htm
      • http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/08/18/4g-hype-time-for-a-reality-check/
      • http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/technology/4g_networks/index.htm
      A Case for WiMax
    • 7
      3G, 3G-LTE, and 4G – Book Speeds
      3G
      3G-LTE
      Wi-Fi
      WiMAX
      Speed
      (DL / UL)
      3.1 Mbps / 1.8 Mbps
      100 Mbps/50 Mbps
      20 Mbps / Mbps
      46 Mbps/25 Mbps
      Mobility
      High
      High (Up to 250 kmph)
      Low
      High
      (Up to 120 kmph)
      A Case for WiMax
      < 3 miles
      Coverage
      < 3.5 miles
      < 100 ft
      < 3 miles
      Time to Mass Market
      Currently available
      2012
      Currently available
      Currently available
      *Source:
      • WIMAX 802.16e & its comparison with other 3G technologies. SalmanHussainChangazi. Department of Electrical and Information Technology
    • 8
      3G, 3G-LTE, and 4G – Industry Speeds
      *Source:
      • http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/technology/4g_networks/index.htm
      A Case for WiMax
    • 9
      Industry Profile: The End-User
      Keeping the Customer Happy
      • Customer satisfaction measured by 95% or higher service uptime rate
      • Minimization of Churn Rate (% of users that terminate on a monthly basis) promotes sales stability and growth
      • Efficient/accurate billing and fraud control
      • Product & Service Innovation (devices and data services)
      A Case for WiMax
      Productivity and Play in new Mobile Devices
      http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2010/02/15/n_co_ballmer_windows.cnnmoney/
    • 10
      Industry Profile: Major Players & Market shares
      Top 3
      • Verizon Wireless
      • Largest domestic provider after 2009 acquisition of Alltel
      • AT&T
      • A “merger” company with a simplified ownership structure and mobility unit
      • Sprint/Nextel
      • Owns 51% of Clearwire Corp via a 1.18 Billion investment
      The “Wireline” Business
      • Wireline Telco Affiliations allow top carriers to sale bundles
      • Large quantities capital provide additional buying power for network licenses
      • Usually carry the costs of investing in infrastructure
      A Case for WiMax
    • 11
      Strategic Assumptions
      • Verizon & AT&T will launch LTE networks in 2011-2012; will add 30% overhead to operations plus infrastructure investment
      • LTE networks will cost 8BN for total development; WirelineTeleco Affiliate companies may retain infrastructure rights & lease LTE service
      • Verizon has spent 7BN to reserve a spectrum for their LTE network
      • Sprint Nextel has controlling interest in the nations predominant 4G operator, Clearwire Corp. and a long-term investment of 1.18BN
      • While Verizon & AT&T build LTE networks; Sprint Nextel can be first to market standardized 4G networks; lease to competition
      A Case for WiMax
    • 12
      DC Metro Overview
      • Rapid transit system in Washington, DC and its surrounding suburbs which is administered by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)
      • Second-busiest rapid transit system in the USin number of passenger trips, after the New York City Subway
      Second-busiest rapid transit system in the US
      A Case for WiMax
    • 13
      Material Costs/Rental Fees for Base Stations
      Train Backhaul
      • Base Station Lease Fee $500
      • (@ 26 stations) $13,000
      • Operation Cost Per Station $10,000
      • (@ 26 stations) $260,000
      A Case for WiMax
      *Includes Total Cost of Ownership; meets FCC regulations
    • 14
      Material Costs/In-Train (6-Cars)
      In-Train Equipment
      A Case for WiMax
      *Includes Total Cost of Ownership; meets FCC regulations
    • 15
      Aggregated Costs
      Approximate Cost to Integrate Redline with 4G Wimax
      Materials: $128,400
      Leases: $273,000
      Total: $401,400
      A Case for WiMax
      Approximate Cost to Integrate all 6-Car Trains servicing Red Line
      Materials: $428,417
      Total: $428,417
    • 16
      Cost Summary
      • Total Estimated Expense: $829,817
      • Labor not included, similar rollouts span 2-5 years where labor and administration add 1-2 ML in expenses
      • Lease estimates provided by Dr. Burge via Hybrid WiMax/iburst solution in progress for Worcester County
      • A reasonable budget for implementation may exceed 3 ML dollars
      A Case for WiMax
    • 17
      Marketing Plan
      • Product & Place (Distribution)
      • Pricing
      • Connectivity Demand for Red Line
      • Target Market for Red Line
      A Case for WiMax
    • 18
      Marketing Plan: Product
      • Metro commuters will have average speeds of 2-4 Mbps for Wi-Fi and 8-10 Mpbs for WiMAX
      • Connection will provide faster downlink speeds for enhanced “data transactions”
      • Service to User Marketing “push” applications enabled
      • Seamless user connectivity throughout Red Line with plans to expand to entire system
      A Case for WiMax
    • 19
      Marketing Plan: Price
      Operator Direct Sales (a-la-carte)
      • Hourly, Daily, Weekly
      • Payment options for one-time users who's mobile service providers or current mobile service package does not offer connectivity while underground
      • Monthly
      • Payment option for WiMAX subscribers giving them 24/7, un-interrupted connectivity
      Service Provider Leasing
      • Develop a revenue stream by leasing/licensing network to service providers
      • Similar to Worldmax/Netherlands implementation business model
      A Case for WiMax
    • 20
      Connectivity Demand: Mobile Demographics (Q2 2009)
      A Case for WiMax
    • 21
      Connectivity Demand: WMATA Metrorail Rider Demographic
      A Case for WiMax
    • 22
      Connectivity Demand: Analysis
      3 year sales forecast of WiMax or WiFi enabled devices
      A Case for WiMax
    • 23
      Statistical Target Market for Redline
      Expected DC ridership purchases
      • Males
      • Adults ages 18-34
      • Income earners in the $100K
      • Business related users
      Expected Legacy device holders.
      • Adults ages 55+
      New technology, chipsets, innovations available 3-5 years from now
      • 4G integration of Mobile and Wireless Networks, Business and SIM
      • Advanced generation of Qualcomm’s Snap Dragon
      A Case for WiMax
    • 24
      Business Case Conclusion
      • Implementation will take between 2-5 years and cost approximately 3 ML dollars on the Red Line
      • Industry forces show the proliferation of 3G-LTE as a major competitor to 4G WiMax; however, the WiMax operator can lease developed systems to the “Big 3” as technology changes
      • A key driver for revenue would be “keeping the customer happy” by streamlining billing, customer service, and optimizing uptime
      A Case for WiMax
    • 25
      References
      WiMAX: Market in Western Europe, Reference Model and SWOT Analysis. Andrea Calcagno, WiTech CEO & EVP, WiMAX VNO Workshop – 19 February 2009
      Analysis of the Market for WiMAX Services. Ling Bai. Center for Information and Communication Technologies, Technology University of Denmark – May 2007
      A Comparison of Two Fourth Generation Technologies – WiMAX and LTE. Jacob Scheim. Communication and Signal Processing Ltd.
      WIMAX 802.16e & its comparison with other 3G technologies. SalmanHussainChangazi. Department of Electrical and Information Technology
      Lund University, Sweden.
      REFERENCES
    • April 2010
      Appendix
      26
      Lawrence Elliott Ball
    • 27
      Case in Point – Dubai Metro
      • In June 2009, Du (UAE telecoms operator ) partnered with Mobiserve (Cairo telecoms solution provider) to complete the implementation of the Dubai Metro's WiMAX network
      • Allows commuters to access the Internet on all Wi-Fi enabled devices including smartphones and laptops
      Driverless, fully automated metro network
      APPENDIX
    • 28
      Case in Point – Dubai Metro
      Overview
      Dubai Metro
      47 stations, 9 underground
      Number of stations
      Number of trains
      87 trains
      APPENDIX
      Total railway length
      46.6 mi (75 km)
      Annual ridership
      35 MM commuters
      Implementation time
      3 months
    • 29
      Case in Point – Dubai Metro
      Marketing Scheme
      Seamless, high speed Internet while travelling between trains and metro stations
      Product
      Packages range from 1 hour of connectivity for $2.7 USD to unlimited monthly connectivity for $27 USD
      Price
      APPENDIX
      WiFi service is provided through Dubai Metro’s 47 stations and 87 trains for their entire railway length
      Place
      WiFi service is sold by Du as part of their overall theme of cheap, convenient connectivity
      Promotion
    • 30
      Case in Point – Virgin Trains
      • In April 2009, T-Mobile, Nomad Digital (WiMAX specialist), and Virgin Trains partnered to provide genuine high-speed, reliable broadband service for its passengers
      • Wi-fi enabled trains with WiMAX backbone (connected via DSL) running trackside
      Servicing London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow
      APPENDIX
    • 31
      Case in Point – Virgin Trains
      Overview
      Virgin Trains
      42 stations
      Number of stations
      Number of trains
      73 trains
      APPENDIX
      Total railway length
      422.5 mi (680 km)
      Annual ridership
      20 MM commuters
      Implementation time
      N/A
    • 32
      Case in Point – Virgin Trains
      Marketing Scheme
      Seamless, high speed Internet while travelling between trains and metro stations
      Product
      Packages range from 1 hour of connectivity for $7.5 USD to unlimited day of connectivity for $19.7 USD
      Price
      APPENDIX
      WiFi service is provided in Virgin Trains’ two main fleets - Pendolino and Super Voyager
      Place
      WiFi service is sold by T-Mobile with Virgin Trains staff distributing vouchers, and leaflets about the service
      Promotion
    • 33
      Data Transfer and Connectivity Demand
      Market share for Smartphone/Smart Device manufacturers
      APPENDIX
    • 34
      Smartphone subscribers and device penetration
      APPENDIX