State Building in the Digital Era: The case for ICT in Post-Conflict and Fragile EconomiesKen Zita World Affairs ForumNetwork Dynamics Associates September 12, 2012
Christopher StevensU.S. Ambassador to Libya 1960-2012
ICT policy, strategy, Public Sector engagementsinvestments focus on post-conflict, fragile and transitional statesProjects > 50 countries What ICT investments are5% technology, 95% needed most to promote goodpolitics governance?
Context & big themesAfghanistan, Palestine & Libya case studiesICT and US foreign policyQ&A
Core argumentICT is strategic to promotingcapable government institutions,economic growth, and opensocieties in fragile and post-conflict states.
Reality of (governance in) the 21st CenturyInformation is power.
Reality of (governance in) the 21st CenturyInformation is power. Real-time networking is power Ubiquitous broadband is power Big data is power Resilience and sustainability is power Collaboration is power Situational awareness is power Cybersecurity is power Responsiveness to human and social needs is power
Bottom Line Up FrontICT is poorly understood indevelopment planning but isabsolutely strategic to state-building.
Bottom Line Up FrontICT is poorly understood indevelopment planning but isabsolutely strategic to state-building.Fundamental improvements can bemade to stability and sustainabilitythrough “smart interventions” in ICT.
Bottom Line Up FrontICT is poorly understood indevelopment planning but isabsolutely strategic to state-building.Fundamental improvements can bemade to stability and sustainabilitythrough “smart interventions” in ICT.ICT is not systematically incorporatedinto US Foreign Policy today,negatively impacting diplomatic andsoft power objectives.
Bottom Line Up FrontICT is poorly understood indevelopment planning but isabsolutely strategic to state-building. “State building in the new millennium faces anFundamental improvements can bemade to stability and sustainability historically different set ofthrough “smart interventions” in ICT. challenges…than previous experiences of stateICT is not systematically incorporatedinto US Foreign Policy today, building processes.”negatively impacting diplomatic and (OECD)soft power objectives.
Four Big Reasons WhyICT Matters to State-Building1. Ensures Free Flow of Information2. Engine for economic growth3. Creates effective, self-sustaining institutions4. Establishes legitimacy by demonstrating the state can delivery the services people want
1.5 billion people live in conflict-affected and fragile states,including 340m of the “extreme poor”About 70% of fragile states have seen conflict since 198930% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) is spent in fragileand conflict-affected contexts.Basic governance transformations “may take 20-40 years”(OECD).
There is a HUGE technology gap Data center(s), for example, are the service engines for modern, information- centric economies
There is a HUGE technology gap Data center(s), for example, are the service engines for modern, information- centric economies – Economies of scale – Shared/cloud computing – Centralized IT – Advanced software services – Cybersecurity – Resilience
Data Infrastructure in perspective • Data center(s) are the service engines for modern, information- centric economies – Centralized IT – Application hosting – Cloud computing It doesn’t get – Cybersecurity – Resiliencebigger than this
Free Flow of InformationWithout connectivity, an “informationsociety” is not possibleLongstanding US doctrine Mainly media, commerce, not telecom Content debate (NWIO/UNESCO)Globalization is a function of openinformation flowToday’s Internet governance debateTwo emerging models: – The US v. China (and Iran) – The West v. Non-Aligned Movement – Capitalists (and netizens) v. autocrats
Information flow builds civil society Open discussion in a Tripoli coffee shop…
Information flow builds civil society Open discussion …vs. the August 2012 in a Tripoli coffee shop… destruction of a Sufi shrine
Broadband and economic growthPercentage point rise in growth per 10 percentage point rise in penetration There is a clear, statistical correlation between communications usage and economic activity Broadband provides the biggest (socio-)economic boost due to positive linkages associated with increased data flow and commerce In Nigeria, telecom contributed just 0.06 percent of GDP in 1999 but rose to 8.2 percent in 2010, mainly due to surge in mobile.Source: World Bank
Broadband penetration and cost by region SSA and South Asia far behind emerging markets average Arab world broadband of 5%-7% is half of world average (15%, 2009) But costs in poor and fragile states are many times more expensive: - Competition - Transparency - Profit-takingSource: World Bank
Comparative Cost of Bandwidth There is a direct correlation between cost-of-bandwidth and economic growth ISRAELSource: Network Dynamics Associates
Comparative Cost of Bandwidth Our analysis shows costs need to fall -70% CAGR to achieve PA public sector modernization objectives RETAIL $4,140 PALESTINE 70% $1242 $546 AVERAGESource: Network Dynamics Associates
Comparative Cost of Bandwidth PalTel reduced costs to the PA by 55% within about 3 weeks of this analysis RETAIL $4,140 PALESTINE $1242 227% $546 AVERAGESource: Network Dynamics Associates
With Broadband Comes InternetInternet Penetration vs. Political Stability Most critical is the direct relationship between Internet accessibility and usage and political stability Broadband is key driver for Internet take- upSource: Fund For Peace
Institutional RationaleA “smart intervention” roadmap for ICTcan establish the administrative tools fora modern, information-centric 21stcentury stateBuild cohesiveness and unity of effortthrough “whole-of-government” technologyplanning and data-sharingStrengthen the institutions of state and civilsociety by adopting systematic informationmanagement practices
Institutional RationaleSupport a culture of professionalinformation management to assure thatgovernment is responsive, transparent andaccountable to the peopleImprove collaboration and boostoperational efficiency by structuringorganizational priorities around managingreal-time information flowEmbrace e-services at all levels to serveand remain relevant to citizen concerns,and playing a positive and relevant roles inpeople’s lives
Operational RationaleLower communications and IT coststhrough shared services, commonoperating environment and centralizedprocurementIntroduce Open Government Dataplatforms to enable integrated servicesdevelopmentAccelerate introduction of e-governmentprograms and citizen-facinggovernmental servicesEmbrace cybersecurity with consistencyand determination
Challenges and Success Factors(some of the big ones)• Elevating ICT as a national development priority• Leadership & vision• Establishing rules of the road• Designing realistic objectives, expectations and timetables• Engaging the private sector, including through PPP• Securing & prioritizing funding (internal or donor)
AfghanistanUS Telecom Policy Advisory inKabul 2002-2003Establishing a state wherenone existedTelecom as a state “brand”;roles of state vs. private sectorInter-agency and donorcoordinationStabilization ofcommunications network
AfghanistanNational Telecom PolicySpecial projects: – Rules of the road for mobile and fixed networks – Government network – Provincial HQs and supporting infrastructure – National satellite network – National fiber ring – Emergency radioEfforts led by DOD since ‘09
What is required to make a state “viable”?Design a strategy to apply latest-generation ICTs to lead and enablethe institutional framework for aunified, autonomous State.• Transcend purely political discussions to explore actionable, technocratic solutions• Upgrade the PA’s ability to connect people, ideas and workflow in real-time• Modernize public sector administration, within existing constraints• Create unity of effort for a connected government.
“Whole of Government” ICTUpgrade Person-to-PersonCommunications within the PA• Connect top 9% of 84,000 employees in real-time, across all departments• Establish the capacity for shared action, transparency, and responsiveness across all functions• Overcome institutional, technical, geographic, and political fragmentation• Improve ability of PA to respond to the social needs of the people (E-services)
US-funded, 11 month feasibility studyBuild capacity across all departments – Discovery; 17 ministries – Gap analysisChallenges: – No sovereignty over telecom (spectrum, gateway, cables) – Political consciousness re ICT – Political externalities – Unique challenges from occupation – Unhelpful monopoly – Limited funding – Data silos, little cohesiveness – Irrational economic structure
A plan, waiting• “Unified Communications” services to connect PA administrators in real time: – Voice + Data + IM+ Video – Collaboration, workflow, etc. – Accelerator for e-government• National Data Center – Cloud computing – Disaster recovery• Congress pulled USAID funding – Initiative stalled, as is the Two-State process
LibyaDefinitional Mission for USTDA(Summer 2012)Gaddafi dismantled government• Fundamental fabric of public administration must be built from scratchMany pressing vulnerabilities,beginning with securityMassive human capacity gapICT framework essential to enablenew governance models to betested•
Libya Reform Challenges“E-Libya” Development priorities – Modernize government applications – Government network – Government data center – Privatize telecom, liberalize radio spectrum – Prioritize applications for development (national ID, e- passport, border control, etc.) – Cybersecurity
Current US foreign policy toward ICTUnfortunately, there isn’t one
Current US foreign policy toward ICTUnfortunately, there isn’t one No clear, stated strategic doctrine for the role of ICT in foreign affairs Not an “essential service” in disaster relief, reconstruction, stability operations or TTPs Not integral to U.S. development aidPlayers – State (Telecom, C/CRS); DOD; USAID; USTDAFragile stage realities – Need help making transition to digital era – China filling (part of) the gap
ICT and US Foreign PolicyHistory & context Free Flow Doctrine Resistance to “industrial policy” Washington ConsensusInstitutional realities Short-term focus, reactive Not institutionalized; “Let the market decide” Lopsided attention to security issuesRise of China in ICT, and what it represents Industry & competition, surrendering position Two visions: free vs. managed information Role in emerging markets (inc. Af. & Iraq)
Initiatives today“21st Century Statecraft” – Traditional diplomacy via social media – Speaking directly to (and, oddly, listening) to foreign populations – Extremely positive and powerful message management and engagementInternational Policy for Cyberspace – Guidelines for open, interoperable, secure, and reliable communicationsInternet governance – ICANN/ITU – Dubai next month
My core thesisU.S. foreign policy instrumentsneed to be updated and alignedmore closely with the realitythat the communicationsrevolution has fundamentallytransformed the dynamics ofdevelopment.
U.S. Political Objectives are Enabled by ICTStrategic Objective Technology “platforms”Promote good governance and Open Data, shared services, Whole-of-sustainable democratic institutions Government CollaborationSupport stability, resilience, and Critical Infrastructure Protection,security cybersecurity, CERT, digital mappingEncourage human development e-services, hosted services, identityand social welfare management, NREN, healthcare ICTPromote free, open and PPP strategies, market liberalization,transparent markets e-transactions, PKI, standardsFoster democracy & human rights Social media, Internet freedom
ICT Opportunities for Intervention Examples from Fragile States There is a hierarchy of priorities based on the local situation, both political and technical, and the priorities can be mapped Open C4I / Incident Broadband Government management acceleration DataGovernanceStabilitySocial Welfare Collaboration & Proxy servers, Cloud ComputingFree Markets Unified peering, InternetDemocracy / Data Centers Communications freedom Government e- Identity services, hosted Cybersecurity management / services Smart cards Spectrum Healthcare e- SCADA / CIIP Liberalization service platforms
Key take-aways• ICT is now universal and strategic – Global shift to ubiquitous mobile communications and Internet has happened extremely fast – Information technology is no longer “a curiosity” - every aspect of development is impacted• In post-conflict, fragile and failed states, information flows enable stability and recovery by allowing people to self-organize, create economic options -- and act• USG needs to more systematically prioritize ICT interventions to achieve strategic objectives in failing and fragile states