State Building in the Digital Era Ken Zita - world affairs forum 12 sept 2012
1. State Building in the Digital Era:
The case for ICT in Post-Conflict and Fragile Economies
Ken Zita World Affairs Forum
Network Dynamics Associates September 12, 2012
3. ICT policy, strategy, Public Sector engagements
investments focus on post-conflict, fragile
and transitional states
Projects > 50 countries What ICT investments are
5% technology, 95% needed most to promote good
politics governance?
4. Context & big themes
Afghanistan, Palestine & Libya case studies
ICT and US foreign policy
Q&A
5. Core argument
ICT is strategic to promoting
capable government institutions,
economic growth, and open
societies in fragile and post-
conflict states.
7. Reality of (governance in) the 21st Century
Information is power.
Real-time networking is power
Ubiquitous broadband is power
Big data is power
Resilience and sustainability is power
Collaboration is power
Situational awareness is power
Cybersecurity is power
Responsiveness to human and
social needs is power
8. Bottom Line Up Front
ICT is poorly understood in
development planning but is
absolutely strategic to state-building.
9. Bottom Line Up Front
ICT is poorly understood in
development planning but is
absolutely strategic to state-building.
Fundamental improvements can be
made to stability and sustainability
through “smart interventions” in ICT.
10. Bottom Line Up Front
ICT is poorly understood in
development planning but is
absolutely strategic to state-building.
Fundamental improvements can be
made to stability and sustainability
through “smart interventions” in ICT.
ICT is not systematically incorporated
into US Foreign Policy today,
negatively impacting diplomatic and
soft power objectives.
11. Bottom Line Up Front
ICT is poorly understood in
development planning but is
absolutely strategic to state-building. “State building in the new
millennium faces an
Fundamental improvements can be
made to stability and sustainability historically different set of
through “smart interventions” in ICT. challenges…than previous
experiences of state
ICT is not systematically incorporated
into US Foreign Policy today, building processes.”
negatively impacting diplomatic and (OECD)
soft power objectives.
12. Four Big Reasons Why
ICT Matters to State-Building
1. Ensures Free Flow of Information
2. Engine for economic growth
3. Creates effective, self-sustaining
institutions
4. Establishes legitimacy by
demonstrating the state can
delivery the services people want
13.
14. 1.5 billion people live in conflict-affected and fragile states,
including 340m of the “extreme poor”
About 70% of fragile states have seen conflict since 1989
30% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) is spent in fragile
and conflict-affected contexts.
Basic governance transformations “may take 20-40 years”
(OECD).
15. There is a HUGE technology gap
Data center(s), for example,
are the service engines for
modern, information-
centric economies
16. There is a HUGE technology gap
Data center(s), for example,
are the service engines for
modern, information-
centric economies
– Economies of scale
– Shared/cloud computing
– Centralized IT
– Advanced software
services
– Cybersecurity
– Resilience
17. Data Infrastructure in perspective
• Data center(s) are the
service engines for
modern, information-
centric economies
– Centralized IT
– Application hosting
– Cloud computing
It doesn’t get – Cybersecurity
– Resilience
bigger than this
19. Free Flow of Information
Without connectivity, an “information
society” is not possible
Longstanding US doctrine
Mainly media, commerce, not telecom
Content debate (NWIO/UNESCO)
Globalization is a function of open
information flow
Today’s Internet governance debate
Two emerging models:
– The US v. China (and Iran)
– The West v. Non-Aligned Movement
– Capitalists (and netizens) v. autocrats
23. ICT & Economic Growth
The Free Flow of
Information is a
principle engine of
economic growth
More information flows = more
efficient markets, greater
economic diversity, and increased
social opportunity
25. Broadband and economic growth
Percentage point rise in growth per 10 percentage point rise in penetration
There is a clear, statistical
correlation between
communications usage and
economic activity
Broadband provides the biggest
(socio-)economic boost due to
positive linkages associated with
increased data flow and
commerce
In Nigeria, telecom contributed
just 0.06 percent of GDP in 1999
but rose to 8.2 percent in 2010,
mainly due to surge in mobile.
Source: World Bank
26. Broadband penetration and cost by region
SSA and South Asia far
behind emerging markets
average
Arab world broadband of
5%-7% is half of world
average (15%, 2009)
But costs in poor and
fragile states are many
times more expensive:
- Competition
- Transparency
- Profit-taking
Source: World Bank
27. Comparative Cost of Bandwidth
There is a direct
correlation between
cost-of-bandwidth and
economic growth
ISRAEL
Source: Network Dynamics Associates
28. Comparative Cost of Bandwidth
RETAIL
$4,140
PALESTINE 757%
$546
AVERAGE
Source: Network Dynamics Associates
29. Comparative Cost of Bandwidth
Our analysis shows costs
need to fall -70% CAGR to
achieve PA public sector
modernization objectives
RETAIL
$4,140
PALESTINE 70%
$1242
$546
AVERAGE
Source: Network Dynamics Associates
30. Comparative Cost of Bandwidth
PalTel reduced costs to the
PA by 55% within about 3
weeks of this analysis
RETAIL
$4,140
PALESTINE
$1242
227% $546
AVERAGE
Source: Network Dynamics Associates
31. With Broadband Comes Internet
Internet Penetration vs. Political Stability
Most critical is the direct relationship between Internet
accessibility and usage and political stability
Broadband is
key driver for
Internet take-
up
Source: Fund For Peace
34. Institutional Rationale
A “smart intervention” roadmap for ICT
can establish the administrative tools for
a modern, information-centric 21st
century state
Build cohesiveness and unity of effort
through “whole-of-government” technology
planning and data-sharing
Strengthen the institutions of state and civil
society by adopting systematic information
management practices
35. Institutional Rationale
Support a culture of professional
information management to assure that
government is responsive, transparent and
accountable to the people
Improve collaboration and boost
operational efficiency by structuring
organizational priorities around managing
real-time information flow
Embrace e-services at all levels to serve
and remain relevant to citizen concerns,
and playing a positive and relevant roles in
people’s lives
36. Operational Rationale
Lower communications and IT costs
through shared services, common
operating environment and centralized
procurement
Introduce Open Government Data
platforms to enable integrated services
development
Accelerate introduction of e-government
programs and citizen-facing
governmental services
Embrace cybersecurity with consistency
and determination
37. Challenges and Success Factors
(some of the big ones)
• Elevating ICT as a national
development priority
• Leadership & vision
• Establishing rules of the road
• Designing realistic objectives,
expectations and timetables
• Engaging the private sector,
including through PPP
• Securing & prioritizing funding
(internal or donor)
40. Afghanistan
US Telecom Policy Advisory in
Kabul 2002-2003
Establishing a state where
none existed
Telecom as a state “brand”;
roles of state vs. private sector
Inter-agency and donor
coordination
Stabilization of
communications network
41. Afghanistan
National Telecom Policy
Special projects:
– Rules of the road for mobile
and fixed networks
– Government network
– Provincial HQs and
supporting infrastructure
– National satellite network
– National fiber ring
– Emergency radio
Efforts led by DOD since ‘09
43. What is required to make a state “viable”?
Design a strategy to apply latest-
generation ICTs to lead and enable
the institutional framework for a
unified, autonomous State.
• Transcend purely political discussions to
explore actionable, technocratic
solutions
• Upgrade the PA’s ability to connect
people, ideas and workflow in real-time
• Modernize public sector administration,
within existing constraints
• Create unity of effort for a connected
government.
44. “Whole of Government” ICT
Upgrade Person-to-Person
Communications within the PA
• Connect top 9% of 84,000
employees in real-time, across all
departments
• Establish the capacity for shared
action, transparency, and
responsiveness across all
functions
• Overcome institutional, technical,
geographic, and political
fragmentation
• Improve ability of PA to respond
to the social needs of the people
(E-services)
45. US-funded, 11 month feasibility study
Build capacity across all departments
– Discovery; 17 ministries
– Gap analysis
Challenges:
– No sovereignty over telecom
(spectrum, gateway, cables)
– Political consciousness re ICT
– Political externalities
– Unique challenges from occupation
– Unhelpful monopoly
– Limited funding
– Data silos, little cohesiveness
– Irrational economic structure
46. A plan, waiting
• “Unified Communications”
services to connect PA
administrators in real time:
– Voice + Data + IM+ Video
– Collaboration, workflow, etc.
– Accelerator for e-government
• National Data Center
– Cloud computing
– Disaster recovery
• Congress pulled USAID funding
– Initiative stalled, as is the
Two-State process
48. Libya
Definitional Mission for USTDA
(Summer 2012)
Gaddafi dismantled government
• Fundamental fabric of public
administration must be built from
scratch
Many pressing vulnerabilities,
beginning with security
Massive human capacity gap
ICT framework essential to enable
new governance models to be
tested
•
49. Libya Reform Challenges
“E-Libya” Development priorities
– Modernize government
applications
– Government network
– Government data center
– Privatize telecom, liberalize radio
spectrum
– Prioritize applications for
development (national ID, e-
passport, border control, etc.)
– Cybersecurity
52. Current US foreign policy toward ICT
Unfortunately, there isn’t one
No clear, stated strategic doctrine for the role
of ICT in foreign affairs
Not an “essential service” in disaster relief,
reconstruction, stability operations or TTPs
Not integral to U.S. development aid
Players
– State (Telecom, C/CRS); DOD; USAID;
USTDA
Fragile stage realities
– Need help making transition to digital era
– China filling (part of) the gap
53. ICT and US Foreign Policy
History & context
Free Flow Doctrine
Resistance to “industrial policy”
Washington Consensus
Institutional realities
Short-term focus, reactive
Not institutionalized; “Let the market decide”
Lopsided attention to security issues
Rise of China in ICT, and what it represents
Industry & competition, surrendering position
Two visions: free vs. managed information
Role in emerging markets (inc. Af. & Iraq)
54. Initiatives today
“21st Century Statecraft”
– Traditional diplomacy via social media
– Speaking directly to (and, oddly,
listening) to foreign populations
– Extremely positive and powerful
message management and engagement
International Policy for Cyberspace
– Guidelines for open, interoperable,
secure, and reliable communications
Internet governance
– ICANN/ITU – Dubai next month
55. My core thesis
U.S. foreign policy instruments
need to be updated and aligned
more closely with the reality
that the communications
revolution has fundamentally
transformed the dynamics of
development.
56. U.S. Political Objectives are Enabled by ICT
Strategic Objective Technology “platforms”
Promote good governance and Open Data, shared services, Whole-of-
sustainable democratic institutions Government Collaboration
Support stability, resilience, and Critical Infrastructure Protection,
security cybersecurity, CERT, digital mapping
Encourage human development e-services, hosted services, identity
and social welfare management, NREN, healthcare ICT
Promote free, open and PPP strategies, market liberalization,
transparent markets e-transactions, PKI, standards
Foster democracy & human rights Social media, Internet freedom
57. ICT Opportunities for Intervention
Examples from Fragile States
There is a hierarchy of priorities based on the local situation,
both political and technical, and the priorities can be mapped
Open
C4I / Incident Broadband
Government
management acceleration
Data
Governance
Stability
Social Welfare Collaboration & Proxy servers,
Cloud Computing
Free Markets Unified peering, Internet
Democracy / Data Centers
Communications freedom
Government e- Identity
services, hosted Cybersecurity management /
services Smart cards
Spectrum Healthcare e-
SCADA / CIIP
Liberalization service platforms
58. Key take-aways
• ICT is now universal and strategic
– Global shift to ubiquitous mobile communications
and Internet has happened extremely fast
– Information technology is no longer “a curiosity” -
every aspect of development is impacted
• In post-conflict, fragile and failed states,
information flows enable stability and
recovery by allowing people to self-organize,
create economic options -- and act
• USG needs to more systematically prioritize
ICT interventions to achieve strategic
objectives in failing and fragile states
