Targets for Resilient Cities

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Transport planning for Sydney is based on continuing the past and yet simple examination shows this calls for a impossible future. Fundamental change is called for and planning for it must start now.

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Targets for Resilient Cities

  1. 1. Urban Transport World 2011 Targets for Resilient Cities Approaches for integrating land use and transport planning Presented by Kym Lennox February 2011 Kym LennoxUrban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities February 2011
  2. 2. Outline Introduction An unsustainable future An alternative Targets Framework Conclusion Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  3. 3. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  4. 4. Introduction Resilient city • Sustainable in its political economy • Capable of handling economic and environmental shocks • Capable of timely response to changes in the underlying assumptions of the sustainability Resilience is a vision not a target Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  5. 5. Introduction Sustainable Political Economy • Constantly improving productivity • A medium-to-long term structurally balanced public sector budget • Institutional stability The key is investing in the right social and physical infrastructure at the right time Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  6. 6. An unsustainable future Not planning for the known is unsustainable • Transport will remain oil dependant beyond 2050 • Development land will be progressively more expensive • The developed world will have a median age over 50 • The price of energy will more than double in real terms • The population will not stabilise before 2050 • The operational life of today’s planning extends past 2050 Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  7. 7. An unsustainable future Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  8. 8. An unsustainable future Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  9. 9. Introduction Sydney’s last 40 year performance in Transport Infrastructure (~$18B 2010$) Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  10. 10. An unsustainable future Over the past 40 years less than $200 per year per head has been invested into public transport infrastructure in Sydney. Up to 1% of GDP will be lost every year to car park infrastructure investment The cost of the infrastructure to park the additional vehicle fleet in 2050 will cost at least $400 per year per head for the next 40 years and consume up to 100 km2 of green field land across Greater Sydney. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  11. 11. An alternative per Capita Rail passenger Km 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Switzerland Japan Germany United Kingdom China Australia United States Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  12. 12. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  13. 13. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  14. 14. An alternative Land use and transport planning implications • Existing housing stock ill suited to future needs • Planning controls need to respond to the context of the site not to barriers and boundaries • Strategic opportunity and whole of government cost and social benefit needs to inform the decision process Hiding from the future will not stop it occurring. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  15. 15. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  16. 16. If this is what Sydney needs, how will it be funded, what land use planning must have occurred and what triggers implementation stages. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  17. 17. Targets What happens if… • Social values for home ownership change • Public transport demand grows twice as fast • Carbon is priced at $100 per tonne in 2020 • The next 20 years is a second baby boom Responding requires transparency and consistency in policy Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  18. 18. Framework – The 4Es Express the targets  Establish the external benefits  Embed the role of the Stakeholders  Ensure Certainty Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  19. 19. Framework Express the targets Government policy should define and express targets that over time shift land-use to limit the resource intensity of the transport demand. Targets must be measurable and aspirational Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  20. 20. Framework Establish the external benefits Policy and the public sector must establish the external benefits and clearly define the roles of stakeholders in any target. A clear role for government provides a certainty of the economics and defines their participation as regulator and financial contributor. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  21. 21. Framework Embed the role of the Stakeholders Clarity is key to risk taking. Roles can not be defined by what another stakeholder is not doing. The policy and regulatory framework must clearly express and embed the roles and their communication obligations. What is: the role of each department? The role of council? The communication to the community? The controls to ensure achieving the strategic goal? Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  22. 22. Framework Ensure Certainty Certainty connects plans with implementation. Funding will not be maintained without certainty. Certainty is not rigidity in the face of a changing world, it is keeping to the strategic goal. Transparency and participation in the decision making process provides certainty through predictable change. Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  23. 23. Conclusion Sustainability is achievable only through an institutional focus on the structure of the urban form and transport Kym LennoxNSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector November 2010
  24. 24. Questions Kym Lennox Australian Practice Lead The Tipping Point Institute Level 1, 341 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 E: kym.lennox@ttpi.org P: 02 9210 4642 W: www.ttpi.org Kym LennoxUrban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities February 2011
  25. 25. About the Tipping Point Institute The Tipping Point Institute (TTPI) is an established consultancy that focuses on developing and disseminating responses to the carbon constrained reality of the 21st century. TTPI provides its clients clarity and context for their participation in a sustainable future. TTPI’s focus is to: • define the targets through what we term ‘carbon economics’; • deliver outcomes with best practice in infrastructure optimisation and planning; • support public sector procurement and tender responses; and • keep on target through programme governance. Society and the economy are at a tipping point such that the consequences of people’s actions and inactions will ripple through many generations to follow. TTPI seeks to be an active participant as Australia and the world manage the next stage towards a sustainable future. The organisation’s strategic goals are therefore to: 1. Integrate sustainability and consideration of carbon constraints into the decision processes of Government, the private sector and every individual. 2. Lead and disseminate a structured leadership that is apolitical. 3. Promote and improve best practice methods that address the complexity of today’s challenges. Kym LennoxUrban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities February 2011

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