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Market Commentary

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  • 1. February 2012The Five Stages of Grief GreeceBy: James Solloway, CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio ManagerPsychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross is best known for her theoretical model of The Five Stages of Grief, which holdsthat, when faced with a catastrophic loss, most individuals pass through five distinct emotional stages—Denial, Anger,Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance. Interestingly, Greece‟s experience as a member of the single-currencyeurozone appears to be following a similar trajectory. There was profound denial of the problems surroundingGreece‟s long-term fiscal health as far back as the signing of the European Union‟s (EU) Maastricht Treaty in 1992.There has been widespread anger at the discovery that Greece‟s finances were in a worse state than believed, and atthe austerity measures being demanded of Greece by the EU. Greece has been forced to bargain intensively with theEU and other parties since its troubles came to light, and the conditions imposed by those deals are now ushering in aperiod of economic depression. We continue to believe that the EU and Greece will eventually be forced to accept thelatter‟s departure from the single currency union.Greece‟s experience as a member of the eurozone their liabilities and thus avoid running afoul of their treatyappears to be following a trajectory similar to the five obligations. These, measures, along with what Rogoffstages of grief. The first stage took place in 1992. described as “decades of low investment in [Greece‟s] 1 statistical capacity,” have created a climate of severeStage 1—Denial mistrust between Greece and its fellow EMU members, which is reflected in the harsh austerity measures beingIn the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, EU member nations demanded by the EU.pledged to limit deficit spending and national debt levels.Fiscal conservatism has also been a key requirement for Once these shenanigans, and the significant damagemembership in the single-currency Economic and done to Greece‟s finances by the 2008 global financialMonetary Union (EMU). On that basis, the admission of crisis, became apparent, denial quickly evaporated. ThisGreece to the EMU should have raised the eyebrows of was reflected in exploding yields on Greek governmentanyone who had studied the history of sovereign debt debt, as shown in Exhibit 1.defaults. As economists Carmen Reinhart and KennethRogoff demonstrated in their book, This Time isDifferent: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, the Greekgovernment has been in default roughly 50% of the timesince the nineteenth century, far more than any otherEMU member.Greece‟s admission into the EMU was not just a matterof denial—it may also have involved a certain degree ofdeception. A small cadre of investment banks helped 1create complex, structured agreements that allowed Kenneth Rogoff, “Can Greece Avoid the Lion?” Project Syndicate,Greece and other EU countries to obscure a portion of 2/3/2010, <http://www.project- syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff65/English>, accessed 2/13/2012SEI / Commentary / ©2012 SEI 1
  • 2. Exhibit 1: Ten-Year Government Bond Yields There has also been intensive bargaining among holders of Greek debt. As we have noted in previous commentaries, the decision to enforce a haircut upon private sector Greek debt holders (an IMF-imposed condition), while preventing it from being termed a default (presumably a condition of core EMU countries whose banks are heavily exposed to such an event), has had unintended but serious consequences. First, the ECB has remained adamant that it expects full payment on all of the Greek debt it has purchased—a somewhat peculiar demand, given that (1) the ECB is the sole institution that can create euro-denominated financial capital at will; (2) buying Greek assets at a discount and demanding full repayment constitutes a form of monetary tightening, all else equal; and (3) its demand for favorable treatment will tend to intensify anger and mistrust between official institutions and the rest of the eurozone economy. (The Wall Street Journal recentlyStage 2—Anger reported that the ECB had softened its stance somewhat, and would exchange its Greek debt holdingsNaturally, denial and deception gave rise to widespread for bonds issued by the European Financial Stabilityanger. Other EU and EMU nations are angry at Greece Fund, or EFSF, though details are still forthcoming.)for its failure to fulfill its treaty obligations. Greek citizens Second, if Greek debt is eventually discounted to aare angry at their politicians, and angry about having to significant extent, then other troubled eurozoneendure substantial austerity measures imposed from governments can be expected to demand similaroutside their political system. The most recent austerity concessions. In fact, Ireland has stated publicly that it ispackage, passed by the Greek Parliament this weekend, watching this aspect of the Greek negotiations closely. Ifhas been met by renewed demonstrations and violence. other nations follow the path Greece is on, the resultPress reports indicate that unrest has spread to many would constitute a much greater hollowing out of theparts of the country, and that as many as 80,000 eurozone‟s financial assets than a Greek default orprotesters caused significant property damage in haircut, and the risk of such an event could causeAthens, with hundreds of injuries to both protesters and significant financial turmoil if suddenly and fullysecurity forces. discounted in market prices.Stage 3—Bargaining Stage 4—DepressionThe Greek government has been actively bargaining As we observed in our most recent Economic Outlook,with the EU and other external parties, as well as its own “SEI has steadfastly believed from the start that anycitizens, since it first formally asked for assistance in attempt to resolve the crisis, short of full fiscal union, a2010. The measures agreed to in recent days took many massive transfer of aid, and socialization of nationalmonths to hammer out, and are required to prevent an governments‟ debt through the issuance of eurobondsoutright default by Greece in late March, when a was likely to fail. The weakest members of the eurozonesignificant principal payment on its debt comes due. are simply too indebted and uncompetitive. Germany‟sJudging by the late-stage negotiations, mistrust and insistence that the periphery debtors deflate their way tofrustration continue to influence participants‟ actions. For health is reminiscent of the eighteenth century practiceexample, after presenting a hard-won package of deficit of throwing a person into debtors‟ prison until he hasreduction proposals to the European Commission (the worked off his obligations.”executive body of the EU), three additional conditionswere imposed upon Greece: (1) the promised budget The demands from core EMU nations for Greece tocuts had to be specified in more detail; (2) the package deflate or „internally devalue‟ its way to competitivenesswould have to be approved by the Greek Parliament have not abated in the most recent agreement, and thebefore being approved by the EU; and (3) Greece would inevitable result—depression—continues to be reflectedhave to provide a written guarantee that the measures in Greek economic statistics, such as the Januarywill be enacted regardless of the outcome of national Purchasing Managers‟ Index, shown in Exhibit 2, whichelections expected in Spring 2012. The hard line being measures the performance of the country‟staken by the troika comprised of the EU, European manufacturing economy.Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund(IMF) is likely to fuel further anger in Greece.SEI / Commentary / ©2012 SEI 2
  • 3. Exhibit 2: Greece Manufacturing PMI eurozone, however. As we noted in a December 2011 Commentary (“The European Union‟s „Fiscal Compact‟—More of the Same”), “We continue to expect that Greece will eventually exit the eurozone…Such news could cause market dislocation, at least in the short-term, but we do not believe it would spell the end of the euro. Instead, we expect the eurozone to remain intact as long as a majority of the citizens in EMU nations (and aspiring EMU members) believe it is in their interest to do so and are willing to pay the price. We would become more concerned for the euro if Italy or Spain started to seriously entertain the possibility of exiting, but at this point, there‟s no sign of that, and the latest agreement is clearly intended to prevent that from happening.” ®According to the Markit PMI report, “Greece‟smanufacturing sector remained deep in recession during In that same report, we also observed that the ECB wasJanuary, with output, new orders and employment all likely to play an increasingly active role: “The ECB isdeclining at severe rates…Remaining well below the likely to become more active if a slowing eurozone50.0 no-change mark, the headline index signaled economy is reflected in falling price levels. While a deepanother steep deterioration in operating conditions and recession and ongoing policy errors pose clear risks toextended the current period of contraction to 29 the euro‟s future, they are also likely to stimulateconsecutive months.” additional summits and perhaps more forceful ECB interventions.” Under its new leadership, the ECB hasStage 5—Acceptance played a far more activist role since late 2011, with positive effects on eurozone markets. And as Exhibit 4 shows, the latest PMI price indices for the eurozone areConsistent with the Five Stages of Grief model, we quite dovish, providing the ECB with ample room tobelieve that the „fifth stage of Greece‟ will involve continue easing policy and to support the EMU‟sacceptance, by the troika and Greece and that the latter ongoing attempts to ring fence the larger economies ofmust depart from the single-currency union. Under the Italy and Spain.EMU‟s current institutional framework, the adjustmentsnecessary to close Greece‟s competitive gap (shown inExhibit 3) are simply too severe, and imposition of those Exhibit 4: PMI Output Price Indicesmeasures too far outside of democratic processes, toendure long-term.Exhibit 3: National Competitiveness Rankings Our Funds SEI‟s fixed-income funds do not currently hold any Greek sovereign debt. That noted, the situation in Greece remains a concern due to the potential for contagion to other European countries.Our ViewWe do not believe that departures by Greece or otherperiphery nations will lead to the collapse of theSEI / Commentary / ©2012 SEI 3
  • 4. This material is provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC) for educational purposes only and is not meant to be investment advice. The reader should consult with his/her financial advisor for more information. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. SIMC is a wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company.The Centennial Group511 South Washington StreetLansing, MI 48933information@refertcg.com(800) 999-9350THE CENTENNIAL GROUP & ITS AFFILIATES ARE INDEPENDENTLY OWNED & OPERATED. SECURITIES AND INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICESOFFERED THROUGH SECURIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. MEMBER FINRA/SIPC. CORPORATE OFFICE: • 511 SOUTH WASHINGTON AVENUE,LANSING, MI 48933 • WWW.CENTENNIALGROUP.COM• 800-999-9350462617 DOFU 2/12 SEI / Commentary / ©2012 SEI 4