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Future Proof: Top Ten Trends 2010-2020  By  Kurt Cagle
Kurt Cagle <ul><li>Author of eighteen books on web technologies and systems analysis
Industry Analyst
Managing Editor, xmlToday.org
[email_address]
@kurt_cagle on Twitter </li></ul>
Top Ten Trends of the 2010s <ul><li>Generations
Petroleum OS Ends
The Great Dis-Integration
Smart Grid OS
Virtualization </li></ul><ul><li>The New Media
Open Data/Open Govt
The Emergent Education Era
Bio-informatics
Hyper-Presence </li></ul>
Generations <ul><li>Each generation establishes an indelible footprint on a given era,
A generation is both influenced by the preceding generations and influences the following generations
The exact boundaries of generations are seldom clear cut – think of a generation as aggregate behaviors.  </li></ul>
Baby Boomers (1944-1962) <ul><li>Leading edge now retiring (65 in 2009)
Fixed income outflows – shrinking economy
Will place heavy demand on social services
Most heavily impacted by the Great Recession
Relocation into cities and near-suburbs – smaller houses or condos, city services
Will form bulk of the  volunteer  economy moving forward. </li></ul>
GenXers (1963-1981) <ul><li>Becoming primary policy leaders, entrepreneurs and authorities
Architects of the Web, technical/engineering oriented, focused on standards and code
Independent – libertarians or civil libertarians,  live agile methodologies
Distrustful of large institutions
Will have the biggest stamp on the technical foundation of the next decade </li></ul>
Millennials (1982-2000) <ul><li>First social media generation
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Future Proof

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I gave this talk at the Island Tech conference in Victoria, BC, providing an examination of dominant trends likely to play out in the next decade.

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Transcript of "Future Proof"

  1. 1. Future Proof: Top Ten Trends 2010-2020 By Kurt Cagle
  2. 2. Kurt Cagle <ul><li>Author of eighteen books on web technologies and systems analysis
  3. 3. Industry Analyst
  4. 4. Managing Editor, xmlToday.org
  5. 5. [email_address]
  6. 6. @kurt_cagle on Twitter </li></ul>
  7. 7. Top Ten Trends of the 2010s <ul><li>Generations
  8. 8. Petroleum OS Ends
  9. 9. The Great Dis-Integration
  10. 10. Smart Grid OS
  11. 11. Virtualization </li></ul><ul><li>The New Media
  12. 12. Open Data/Open Govt
  13. 13. The Emergent Education Era
  14. 14. Bio-informatics
  15. 15. Hyper-Presence </li></ul>
  16. 16. Generations <ul><li>Each generation establishes an indelible footprint on a given era,
  17. 17. A generation is both influenced by the preceding generations and influences the following generations
  18. 18. The exact boundaries of generations are seldom clear cut – think of a generation as aggregate behaviors. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Baby Boomers (1944-1962) <ul><li>Leading edge now retiring (65 in 2009)
  20. 20. Fixed income outflows – shrinking economy
  21. 21. Will place heavy demand on social services
  22. 22. Most heavily impacted by the Great Recession
  23. 23. Relocation into cities and near-suburbs – smaller houses or condos, city services
  24. 24. Will form bulk of the volunteer economy moving forward. </li></ul>
  25. 25. GenXers (1963-1981) <ul><li>Becoming primary policy leaders, entrepreneurs and authorities
  26. 26. Architects of the Web, technical/engineering oriented, focused on standards and code
  27. 27. Independent – libertarians or civil libertarians, live agile methodologies
  28. 28. Distrustful of large institutions
  29. 29. Will have the biggest stamp on the technical foundation of the next decade </li></ul>
  30. 30. Millennials (1982-2000) <ul><li>First social media generation
  31. 31. Nearly as large as Boomers ( Echo Boomers )
  32. 32. Very entrepreneurial
  33. 33. More likely to be involved in communication/media
  34. 34. Concerned about transparency of gov't & business.
  35. 35. Mashup generation
  36. 36. Environmentally sensitive </li></ul>
  37. 37. Virtuals (2001-2019) <ul><li>Smaller generation than GenXers
  38. 38. The Google Generation – information is pervasive and immediately accessible
  39. 39. Hyper-connected – always communicating
  40. 40. First post-corporate generation
  41. 41. Systemic thinkers
  42. 42. NeoTribalists </li></ul>
  43. 43. The Petroleum Operating System <ul><li>The Energy production and distribution system can be thought of as an economy's Operating System
  44. 44. The Petroleum OS is now 150 years old, and dictates transportation, power generation, urban infrastructure development, financial systems, food production, political organization, education, marketing and media and nearly everything else.
  45. 45. The Petroleum Operating System is crashing ... </li></ul>
  46. 46. Peak Oil – The End of Cheap Oil <ul><li>Cost to produce energy exceeds energy value
  47. 47. Global Oil Peak - 2007?
  48. 48. Demand Still Growing
  49. 49. Max Prod: 85 Mbls/d
  50. 50. Trough Oil: Everything from here gets harder </li></ul>
  51. 51. Energy Shocks <ul><li>Energy Shock Cycle </li><ul><li>Economy Improves, Increases Demand
  52. 52. Demand Increases Price, Fixed or Falling Supply
  53. 53. Price Reaches a Peak, Dragging on the Economy
  54. 54. Economy Crashes, Price Plummets </li></ul><li>Cycles increasing in frequency, severity
  55. 55. Gluts Become Smaller, Shortages Longer
  56. 56. Average Price Through Cycle Increasing </li></ul>
  57. 57. Petroleum OS and Credit <ul><li>Credit derives from energy/resource reserves, which cannot consistently meet demand
  58. 58. Without guaranteed reserves, credit dries up.
  59. 59. Without credit, businesses are forced into cash accrual model, with higher exposed risk.
  60. 60. Most mega-corporations are built with leveraged credit; as credit recedes, they disaggregate.
  61. 61. 2010-2020 is the Great Dis-integration. </li></ul>
  62. 62. The Smart Grid Era <ul><li>Decade will mark transition to the Smart Grid era.
  63. 63. Smart Grid – merging electrical production grid with societal information networks
  64. 64. Smart Grid supports localized, sustainable energy production, with intelligent creation, transmission & storage of power.
  65. 65. Consumers become prosumers, with those contributing to the grid gaining most benefit. </li></ul>
  66. 66. Smart Grid as Open OS? <ul>Petroleum OS <li>Proprietary
  67. 67. Centralized
  68. 68. Forces Segmentation
  69. 69. Vendor Lock-in
  70. 70. High Barrier to Entry
  71. 71. Forced Upgrades
  72. 72. Benefits Producers </li></ul><ul>Smart Grid OS <li>Open Access
  73. 73. Decentralized
  74. 74. Enables Open Standards
  75. 75. Competitive Cooperation
  76. 76. Low Barrier to Entry
  77. 77. Allows for Versioning
  78. 78. Benefits Users, Prosumers </li></ul>
  79. 79. Smart Grid Economy <ul><li>Smart Grid economy is emergent (bottom up)
  80. 80. Communities seek energy independence </li><ul><li>Those that don't face unreliable power (worse than no power, in many respects) </li></ul><li>Smart Grid standardization insures that as a community comes online, it can connect to grid
  81. 81. Smart Grids allow community participation, and community member renumeration </li></ul>
  82. 82. Smart Grid and the Internet <ul><li>The Smart Grid is the next stage of the Internet, and will build out in much the same way the web did
  83. 83. As such SG becomes an overlay of networks: </li><ul><li>Energy, Messaging, Data Abstraction, Application, Social Media, Financial Services, Resource Distribution, Governmental Services </li></ul><li>Electrical standardization moves transportation onto the Smart Grid as well. </li></ul>
  84. 84. Adapting Transportation Grid <ul><li>Electric cars (though car use declines, generally)
  85. 85. High speed rail replaces air travel, save for light air craft
  86. 86. Light rail, e-busses, trolleys re-emerge
  87. 87. Trucking remains but becomes more local
  88. 88. Shipping favors rail, wind-driven ships
  89. 89. Most vehicles are hybrids – oil provides extra power, but is not prime motive power. </li></ul>
  90. 90. Alt-Energy <ul><li>Bio-fuels </li><ul><li>Algae, Yeast, Hemp, Sawgrass, Bio-wastes
  91. 91. Requires Genetically Engineered Agents & Enzymes </li></ul><li>Solar photo-Voltaics </li><ul><li>3 rd Gen pVs, Flexible pV Membranes, Photosynthesis, Supercapacitors, Beamed Microwave Energy </li></ul><li>Thermal Gradient Systems
  92. 92. Kinetic Systems </li><ul><li>High Altitude Kites, Water Snakes </li></ul></ul>
  93. 93. SGOS & Society <ul><li>SGOS fosters city-state hubs; power shifts away from national back towards municipal level.
  94. 94. Physical manufacturing relocalizes, virtual manufacturing (software and services) globalizes
  95. 95. Management & marketing lose influence, technical/creative gain influence.
  96. 96. Corporations are either physical, local and persistant or virtual, distributed and transient (or both). In all cases, they're small. </li></ul>
  97. 97. Virtualization <ul><li>The rendering of physical entities as software
  98. 98. Cloud - the virtualization of hardware
  99. 99. Software as a Service - the virtualization of stand-alone applications as sets of web service streams
  100. 100. Next big wave is virtualization of data , with the web as collections of read/write databases </li><ul><li>This concept is intrinsic to RESTful Services </li></ul></ul>
  101. 101. Virtualization and SGOS <ul><li>Virtualization moves up the stack
  102. 102. Virtualization of government occurs as governmental functions become exposed as services in the noosphere
  103. 103. Virtualization of the media is already underway.
  104. 104. Virtualization of education is happening as the POS educational system collapses.
  105. 105. Each replaces top-down hierarchical systems with bottom-up distributed systems. </li></ul>
  106. 106. Search, Services & Semantics <ul><li>We are switching from process oriented applications to resource oriented (RESTful) ones
  107. 107. Introduces a search/query oriented view of the web.
  108. 108. Search services will retrieve collections of links to resources, packaged in various forms.
  109. 109. Update services will activate messaging actions based upon publishing of content.
  110. 110. Computational semantics will drive both search and publishing. </li></ul>
  111. 111. Social Media <ul><li>Social Media makes all human experiences virtually participatory, before, during and after the fact.
  112. 112. Social Media is absorbing gaming, conferencing, education, training and entertainment.
  113. 113. Social Media platforms will continue to emerge, eclipsing older platforms and services.
  114. 114. Social Media will also be foundation of Augmented Reality </li></ul>
  115. 115. NeoJournalism PaleoJournalism <ul><ul><li>News is scarce
  116. 116. High barrier to entry
  117. 117. Professional journalists
  118. 118. Editor provides gateway function
  119. 119. Branding is key
  120. 120. Advertising driven </li></ul></ul>NeoJournalism <ul><ul><li>News is ubiquitous
  121. 121. Low barrier to entry
  122. 122. Domain expert as journalist
  123. 123. Community provides filtering function
  124. 124. Search/Word of Mouth
  125. 125. Ancillary services driven </li></ul></ul>
  126. 126. Open Data / Open Gov't <ul><li>Next Stage of Web – Web as Database
  127. 127. Orgs will expose both public data services and data editors via REST, XML and JSON
  128. 128. Gov't Big Data Standards – NIEM Framework
  129. 129. Semantic Web Matures: RDF/OWL & Linked Data
  130. 130. Businesses improve transparency via XBRL
  131. 131. Everything becomes ( somewhat ) intelligent </li></ul>
  132. 132. Education's Failing Grade <ul><li>Existing 19th/20 th century education infrastructure disintegrates </li><ul><li>Funding collapses due to credit shock, fuel prices, reduced tax base and demographics
  133. 133. Educational systems fail to deliver competent graduates for information economy
  134. 134. Centralized curricula removes flexibility, targets generation of mediocrity.
  135. 135. Kids becoming idiot savants – knowledge at their fingertips, but with few tools to analyse it. </li></ul></ul>
  136. 136. Rethinking Education <ul><li>Online education webs may provide communities of learning
  137. 137. Distance learning decouples teaching from location
  138. 138. Education becomes life-long activity
  139. 139. Social education becomes biggest issue
  140. 140. 2010s will see an explosion of alt-education forms
  141. 141. Teachers, like journalists, will be the next professionals to face amateurization, to be replaced by guides, mentors and quisitors. </li></ul>
  142. 142. Hyper Awareness & Augmented Reality <ul><li>Geo-informatics becomes pervasive
  143. 143. Wearable computing comes of age </li><ul><li>Location/topicality channels create a where web
  144. 144. Financial transactions become transparent
  145. 145. Motion aware overlays enable in-place virtual worlds
  146. 146. People rent their lives vicariously.
  147. 147. Percentage of people who live and/or work in virtual worlds exceeds 30% by 2020 </li></ul></ul>
  148. 148. Bio-Informatics <ul><li>Electronic Health Records become Open Data
  149. 149. Standardization leads to bottom up revolution
  150. 150. Disintegration of private insurance monopolies in US
  151. 151. XML Based EHRs create distributed web, another part of the Smart Grid
  152. 152. Epidemiology, emergency response merge with Smart Grid (via US National Information Exchange Model, or NIEM)? </li></ul>
  153. 153. Summary <ul><li>Institutional society will dis-integrate over the next twenty years.
  154. 154. What replaces it will be distributed, emergent, virtual, communal, highly participatory and metaphorical.
  155. 155. Declining resources and over-stressed ecosystems will increase conflict globally, but will also hasten the transition to sustainable models
  156. 156. These changes will come from the bottom up. </li></ul>
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