CPX 2011 Complexity and the game of go

Complexity & the game of Go Teaching the world about complexity, one stone at a time www.DeltaKnowledge.net Stuart French @DeltaKnowledge

Is your organisation
A Machine?
Or is it Organic?
Image courtesy Flickr: Patrick Hoesly

Complexity keeps CEOs awake at night! “ While eight out of ten CEOs anticipate significant complexity ahead, less than half feel prepared to handle it.” “ There isn’t the luxury of time. We used to say, ‘Wait until this crisis is over and we get back to normal,’ but that never happens. We have to be ‘change animals.’” - Michele McKenzie Download at http://bit.ly/IBMcomplexity2010

Your Ontology should always drive your Epistemology Dave Snowden

Cynefin Framework

Getting a grip on Complexity Q. If you knew all the causes, would you always be able to determine the outcome? Lets find out!

Getting a grip on Complexity If you knew everybody’s choices before-hand: 1) Could you have predicted everybody’s final position? 2) Could you find a solution as quickly as we just did it? Even with a computer?

Moving a puck forward

“ W e can understand starting conditions as a complex system evolves and we can influence their evolution if we focus on barriers and attractors but not if we look at the end point.
S o attempting to predict the outcome makes things worse not better”
Dave Snowden

“ When you make the complicated simple, you make it better. But when you make the complex simple, you make it wrong.” - Dave Gray, Founder XPLANE

We are not the first to tread this path of complexity

How this idea got started Chess = Complicated Go = Complex

What is Go?
Go is a board game
It originally came from Tibet / China
Created ≈ 2300 B.C.
It is played all over the world, but mainly in
Japan (iGo),
China (Weiqi) &
Korea (Baduk)
Have you seen it before?

Gamification Go is a great metaphor for managing in complex environments 1 Go is a great way to practice recognising and managing complex environments 2

Complicated versus Complex Chess Go
8 x 8 board
19 x 19 board

Play in squares
Kings, Queens, Bishops, Rooks…
Play on lines
Black stones and White stones of equal value

Aim: to kill the other players King
1 st 3 moves = 4,352
Aim: to surround more territory

1st 3 possible moves = 46,655,640 This makes Go VERY complicated

What makes Go Complex? Image thanks to http://gameschoolgems.blogspot.com/2009/12/influence-maps-i.html

Complexity & the game of Go In Go the 4.6 x 10 170 permutations means no two games are the same. Pattern recognition and intuition are key. Rather than dominate, one seeks incremental influence of the board as the nature of the game is revealed. Go can be seen as the story of Human Society:

Basic Rules
Start with an empty board
Take turns placing stones
The aim is to surround as much territory for yourself while reducing your opponents territory

Basic Rules
Each stone has liberties surrounding it (marked by the green squares)
Stones joined by a line to one another are connected and share liberties

Basic Rules
When a stone has no more liberties it is captured and taken from the board
If black plays on any of the green squares white stones will be captured
The bigger an army is, the harder it is to capture

Safe-Fail experiment: Ponnuki Go First player to capture an opponent’s stone wins! Play fast, learn, adapt. Let the game teach you how to play.

A basic game of Go Play fast, learn, adapt. Let the game teach you how to play.

The Suicide Rule
“ A stone cannot be played if it has no liberties after it has played”
White cannot play at A because he will have no liberties
A

The Suicide Rule
“ A stone cannot be played if it has no liberties after it has played”
However if white surrounds black first, then a Play at A is OK because black will be captured giving A four liberties
A

Scoring a Go game The winner is determined by their score Score = Points Surrounded + Prisoners taken White wins! White: 12 + 5 = 17 Black: 15 + 1 = 16

A few hints to play better
Don’t start near the edge
1 4 2 5 3 6 7 8

Place fence posts then the palings
1 2 3

Surround as much area as possible
Black will win White will win

Surround as much area as possible
Try not to play right up against the other player
1 2  

Now for the real thing Lets try Go!

Go’s Key Lessons: 1. Ambient Awareness 2. Adaptive Ability But what does this look like in your organisation?

What does Complexity look like?
Ambient Awareness
- Weak Signal Detection
- Avoiding over-reliance on KPIs and set metrics
- Using Probes and Pilot projects to determine
Adaptive Ability
- Resilience instead of Robustness
- Focus on Safe-Fail and Response-Ability
- Act Learn Adjust (Duncan Brodie)

More resources
Interactive Go Tutorial
http://playgo.to/iwtg/en/
Video Introduction to playing Go
http://blip.tv/file/262606/
Go Software:
iGoWIN (free 9x9 game)
http://bit.ly/Qt9Tb
SmartGo Pro (iPhone)
American Go Association Software List
http://bit.ly/5BORFw
Kids
Hikaru no Go – Anime video
Complexity Tutorial http://bit.ly/4sfHYG David Snowden’s Blog http://bit.ly/1BOdoN Cognitive Edge Podcasts http://bit.ly/28a7Zu Articles: Managing under complexity: Where is Einstein when you really need him? Coping with Complexity Images: Thanks to IGS, FracturedPixel

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CPX 2011 Complexity and the game of go

by Stuart French

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CPX 2011 Complexity and the game of go Presentation Transcript