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GEOG101 Chapt06 lecture
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GEOG101 Chapt06 lecture

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  • 1. Overview
    • Population Growth
    • Population Definitions
    • The Demographic Transition
    • The Demographic Equation
    • World Population Distribution
    • Population Density
    • Population Data and Projections
    • Population Controls
    • Population Prospects
  • 2. Population Geography vs. Demography
    • Population geography
      • Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of humans in relation to variations in the conditions of earth space
      • Spatial analysis
    • Demography
      • The statistical study of human population
  • 3. Population Growth
    • World population is about 6.7 billion
    • Annual increase of 74-75 million
      • Annual increases have been declining
    • 2006 UN projections
      • 9.2 billion in 2050
      • 9.4-9.5 billion by 2100
    • Future growth will occur in developing countries
  • 4. Population Definitions
    • Population measures are made more meaningful by rates and cohort measures
      • Rates
        • Frequency of occurrence during a specified time period
      • Cohort
        • Population group unified by a common characteristic, such as age
  • 5. Birth Rates
    • Annual number of live births per 1000 population
    • Influenced by age and sex structure, customs and family size expectations, population policies
      • High birth rates ( ≥ 30)
        • Characteristic of agricultural, rural countries in which a high proportion of the female population is young
      • Low birth rates ( < 18)
        • Characteristic of industrialized, urbanized countries
      • Transitional birth rates (18-30)
        • Some developing and newly industrializing countries
    • Subject to change
  • 6. Total Fertility Rates
    • Average number of children born to each woman
    • Replacement level fertility: 2.1-2.3
    • Worldwide TFR in 2007: 2.7
      • More-developed countries: 1.6
      • Less-developed countries: 2.9
    • Fertility declines in recent decades
      • Dramatic declines in many less-developed countries
        • Changing cultural values
      • TFRs below replacement level
        • Populations may stabilize or grow due to migration
  • 7. Death Rates
    • Annual number of deaths per 1000 population
    • In the past, varied with levels of development
      • Dramatic reductions in in less-developed countries
        • As a group, death rates now lower than in more-developed countries
    • Also influenced by age structure
    • Infant mortality rate
      • Ratio of deaths of infants aged 1 year or under per 1000 live births
      • Significant declines in modern times
  • 8. Death Rates
    • Modern medicine and sanitation have increased life expectancy
      • Regional variation in benefits
    • HIV/AIDS
      • Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hardest
        • Average life expectancy has been cut
        • Food insecurity
  • 9. Population Pyramids
    • Graphic depiction of the age and sex composition of a population
    • Types of population profiles
      • Rapid growth
      • Slow growth
      • Decline
      • Disrupted growth
    • Population profile influences demands on a country’s social and economic systems
      • Dependency ratio
        • Number of economic dependents that each 100 persons in the productive years must support
  • 10. Natural Increase and Doubling Time
    • Rate of natural increase
      • Birth rate minus death rate expressed as a percentage
      • Excludes migration
    • Doubling time
      • Time it takes for a population to double if current growth rate remains constant
        • 72 divided by rate of natural increase
      • J-curve
        • Depicts exponential (geometric) growth
  • 11. Demographic Transition
    • Model of the effect of economic development on population growth
      • Stage 1: High birth and death rates
      • Stage 2: High birth rates and declining death rates
      • Stage 3: Declining birth rates and low death rates
      • Stage 4: Low birth and death rates
      • Stage 5: Death rates exceed birth rates
    • Devised to describe the experience of northwest European countries
  • 12. A Divided World Converging
    • The population history of Europe was not relevant to all developing countries
      • Many remained in the second stage
    • Introduction of Western technologies of medicine and public health to developing countries
      • Quickly lowered death rates
    • Birth rates are largely dependent on social acceptance of fewer children
      • Have fallen in some developing countries but remain high in others
  • 13. Demographic Equation
    • Regional population change is a function of natural change and net migration
    • Population relocation
      • Can relieve pressures of rapid growth
    • Immigration impacts
      • Demographic equation
      • Population structures of origin and destination
        • Emigrant groups are skewed in favor of young singles
  • 14. World Population Distribution
    • Uneven population distribution
      • Almost 90% live north of the equator
        • 2/3 of total between 20 ° and 60 ° N
      • A large majority occupies a small part of the land
      • People congregate in lowland areas
      • Continental margins have the densest settlement
    • Four clusters of population
      • East Asia
      • South Asia
      • Europe
      • NE United States/SE Canada
  • 15. World Population Distribution
    • Ecumene
      • Permanently inhabited areas of the earth
      • Has been extended by technologies
    • Nonecumene
      • Uninhabited or very sparsely occupied zone
      • 35% to 40% of the land surface
  • 16. Population Density
    • The relationship between number of inhabitants and the area they occupy
    • Crude (arithmetic) density
      • Number of people per unit area of land
    • Physiological density
      • Number of people per unit of arable land
    • Agricultural density
      • Number of rural residents per unit of agriculturally productive land
  • 17. Overpopulation
    • Value judgment that the resources of an area are insufficient to sustain its present population
      • Not the inevitable consequence of high density
    • A continuing imbalance between numbers of people and the carrying capacity of the land
      • Number of people an area can support, given the prevailing technology
        • Related to level of economic development
  • 18. Urbanization
    • Transformation from rural to urban status
    • Rapid growth of cities in developing countries
      • Nearly all world population increase between 2000 and 2030 will be in urban areas of developing countries
    • Consumes a great deal of cropland
    • Problems in densely populated cities in developing countries
      • Lack of housing, jobs, education, health and social services
  • 19. Population Data and Projections
    • Population data
      • Sources: United Nations, World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, national censuses
      • May be inaccurate
    • Population projections
      • Based on assumptions applied to current data
      • Not predictions
      • High, medium, and low projections may be given
  • 20. Population Controls
    • Thomas Robert Malthus
      • Unchecked population increases geometrically, food production increases arithmetically
    • Equilibrium must be achieved between numbers and resources
      • Overpopulation will result in a dieback
        • J-curve converted to S-curve
      • Homeostatic plateau
        • Population that is equivalent to carrying capacity
  • 21. Population Controls
    • Neo-Malthusianism
      • Advocacy of population control programs to improve prosperity and well-being
        • Many countries have adopted family planning programs
          • E.g., China
    • Cornucopians
      • Believe population growth is a stimulus to development
  • 22. Population Prospects
    • Population (demographic) momentum
      • Numbers of births continue to grow as fertility rates per woman decline
        • High concentration of people in the childbearing years
    • Aging
      • Result of transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality
      • Pace is much faster in developing countries
      • Increasing burdens on working-age populations
        • Potential support ratio is falling

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