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# Seven Domains of Predictability - BPMCM 2014

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This is an updated version of the seven domains of predictability that define the different types of process technology given at the BPM & Case Management summit in Washington DC Jun e2014

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### Seven Domains of Predictability - BPMCM 2014

1. 1. Keith D Swenson June 2014 Seven Domains of Predictability / Unpredictability
2. 2. Dependencies  Unpredictable does not mean Random  Weather is unpredictable, but not random  Weather is predictable, but only a few days in advance  Predictability is related to Dependencies  Something that is “independent” is self contained and generally predictable.  Something that is dependent on a small number of external things might be predictable to the extent that the external things are predictable  Something dependent on large numbers of external things, or dependent upon unpredictable things, generally can’t be predicted  Look for the amount of external dependency
3. 3. Closed Systems  Even a closed system with no external dependencies can be unpredictable.  lots of internal dependencies  iterations over and over  overly sensitive responses  Unpredictability is when the number of variables overwhelm the possibilities.  This is known as chaos  but it is not random  It is not just that you don’t know the status well enough to predict, but that it is impossible to know the status that well
4. 4. Repeatability  Repeatable = Predictable  perfectly repeating == perfectly predictable  Can be differences, and still be repeatable  Everything is predictable the moment before it happens  It is about the amount of time ahead.  this is the prediction horizon  If the process lasts longer than the prediction horizon, then we call it unpredictable.  It can not be predefined, and must be managed “on the fly”
5. 5. It is all about time Unstructured Late-structured
6. 6. Trends from 2013 ACM Survey from Nathaniel Palmer BPM.com and WfMC, 2013
7. 7. Percent Predictable Activities 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% None Less Than 10% 10% - 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% Greater than 75% What percentage of your daily work interaction involves anticipated or repetitive activities? 55% said that 75% or more of their work is unpredictable!
8. 8. Work Categories 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of time in work category Purely ad-hoc, never happens the same way twice Consistent, defined goals; varying means to achieve Documented and managed, but not automated Partially automated, but frequent exceptions Fully automated, no opportunity to change 33%
9. 9. How Common are Exceptions? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % exception to defined process Less than 20% 20-40% 40-80% More than 80% All of Them! What percent of work (over the course of a week or month) represents an exception to standard procedures or defined processes?
10. 10. Use of ACM in 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Use of ACM today Using ACM today We're using ACM today vis-a-vis BPM platform2 We're using another platform to deliver ACM (CRM, ECM, et al.) No 'official' ACM environment but realize similar benefits through other systems We do not any ACM type functionality today, but we're currently evaluating Sounds interesting, but not currently considered No interest in ACM currently, don't expect this to change
11. 11. Seven Domains
12. 12. Definition of BPM Business Process Management (BPM) is a discipline involving any combination of modeling, automation, execution, control, measurement and optimization of business activity flows, in support of enterprise goals, spanning systems, employees, customers and partners within and beyond the enterprise boundaries.
13. 13. ApplicationDev Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data
14. 14. ApplicationDev Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Development Investment High Low End User Effort Low High Cost to Modify High Low Control of Process High Low
15. 15. ApplicationDev Process Technology Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data
16. 16. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM ProductionCM AdaptiveCM SocialBiz Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data
17. 17. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone ApplicationDev Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Traditional Programming model Java C++ C# Design, develop, test, release Very robust Very Scalable and Performant Costly to develop
18. 18. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone PDSIntegration Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Design using a process model Easier to explain to business people Easier to change and modify Still mainly about server to server integration, data flows BPEL, Straight-Thru-Processing
19. 19. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone HumanPM Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Design using a process model Model automatically takes care of things that people do: • reminders • reassignment • delegation • escalations • roles • deadlines Easier to explain to business people Easier to change and modify
20. 20. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone ProductionCM Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Production Case Mgmt Design using a case model, but for knowledge worker Processes are more like menu choices Data is center High volume Knowledge Worker for hire Design remains separate from users
21. 21. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone AdaptiveCM Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Not designed using a model, but simply styled by the knowledge worker. Guidelines NOT guardrails Designed data objects Checklists More documents More msgs and notes Less DB use Planning is part of the work
22. 22. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone SocialBiz Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Less customizable, More basic capabilities Special purpose cloud based collaborative applications • eVite, event bright • Discussion forums • Wiki • Basic CMS
23. 23. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM PCM ACM SBS Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data Traditional communications only, No structure All message and attachments
24. 24. ApplicationDev PDSIntegration HumanPM ProductionCM AdaptiveCM SocialBiz Email,Texting, Twitter,Telephone Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable NotesDocuments & Unstructured Data Databases & Structured Data
25. 25. Traditional Application Development Process Driven Server Integration Unlimited data structures Somewhat simpler, process variables, often XML related Some UML/data structure diagrams but mostly text programming languages BPMN or other process diagram is used as central organizing model Java, J2EE, C++, C#, Visual Basic, standard APIs BPEL, WSDL, web services, event bus, connectors
26. 26. Process Driven Server Integration Human Process Management Tasks directed to server, SOA Tasks directed to people High performance, transactional, emphasis on throughput Correctness of assignment more important than performance N/A Organizational Model Server/task assignment relatively fixed Roles change assignment at run time No need to remind a server Reminders No need to escalate Escalation No feature to reassign Reassign Tasks Mostly structured data Structured and unstructured data
27. 27. Human Process Management Production Case Management Process Centric Data Centric Model with BPMN Model with something like CMMN Organizational Model Organizational Model Elaborate Process Diagram with branches, condition logic and automation, enforced order Tasks are more like menu items chosen by case worker at the time, task order not strictly enforced Process gets data from, and puts data to, external repositories Case is itself a repository for most of the information in the case
28. 28. Production Case Management Adaptive Case Management Design Time / Run Time Separated No separate design time from run time Developer creates application, releases upgrades when ready Might be deployed without customization, Customization while using it Case manager has fixed choices Choices can be created on fly Data Centric Data Centric Knowledge worker for-hire Knowledge worker with ownership Regular deployment / training Evolves over time, emergent process Structured and unstructured data Less structured data, more unstructured