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An Outsider’s Observations on the Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence

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Presentation for Best of Analytics conference April 23, 2012 http://www.bestofanalytics.com/ Analytics, Big Data, and the Cloud. “An Outsider’s Observations on the Singularity Institute of Artificial …

Presentation for Best of Analytics conference April 23, 2012 http://www.bestofanalytics.com/ Analytics, Big Data, and the Cloud. “An Outsider’s Observations on the Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence”. The Feb. 28, 2012 paper by Marcus Hutter talking about inside and outside the Singularity is at http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.6177v1.pdf and his General AI is referred to in section 2.4 of http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Muehlhauser-Salamon-Intelligence-Explosion-Evidence-and-Import.pdf and at minutes 31.30 and 40 and 52 in this video http://vimeo.com/14888930 . Copyright (c) 2012 by Transpath Inc.

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  • 1. Kim Solez, MD
  • 2.  Some already know what the technological Singularity is, others don’t, and are finding out now. However, if the people and ideas I present are genuinely new and interesting I should be able to satisfy both groups. Singularity Course
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  • 5. Elenchus - Open Facebook Group"Elenchus" is a form of inquiry anddebate between individuals with opposingviewpoints based on utilizing Socraticdialogue in asking and answering questionsto stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.
The only rule: Maintain Decorum :)
  • 6. “…The technological singularity occurs as artificialintelligences surpass human beings as the smartestand most capable life forms on the Earth.Technological development is taken over by themachines, who can think, act and communicate soquickly that normal humans cannot evencomprehend what is going on. The machines enterinto a „runaway reaction‟ of self-improvement cycles,with each new generation of A.I.s appearing fasterand faster. From this point onwards, technologicaladvancement is explosive, under the control of themachines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted(hence the term „Singularity‟)....”– Ray Kurzweil
  • 7. SingularityCourse
  • 8.  How Inside Outside and Singularity impact young people, important concepts we will discuss later. Big Bang Theory (the TV show; 16 million viewers) Singularity University (I went to Exec. Program) Singularity Summit (9,000 views per video) Singularity Institute of Artificial Intelligence (500 views per video) Kim Solez – Technology and Future of Medicine Course LABMP 590 (500 views per video) SIAI Rationality and Awesomeness Mini-Camp – Participants in early 20s –advice on fashion, style, body language, and confidence-building Singularity Course
  • 9.  In the coming decades, humanity will likely create a powerful AI. SIAI exists to confront this urgent challenge, both the opportunity and the risk. SIAI is fostering research, education, and outreach to increase the likelihood that the promise of AI is realized for the benefit of everyone Singularity Course
  • 10.  .However, Marcus Hutter suggests that there is an element ofhuman insignificance that makes the whole scenario muchmore challenging. Also, Hutter has created a general AI whichmakes the problem seem more immediate! Singularity Course
  • 11.  .However Marcus Hutter suggests that there is an element ofhuman insignificance that makes the whole scenario much morechallenging. Also Hutter has created a sort of general AI whichmakes the problem seem more immediate! Singularity Course
  • 12.  While these are “just” recreational games, they do contain many prototypical elements of the real world, such as food, enemies, friends, space, obstacles, objects, and weapons  Next could be a test in modern virtual worlds... that require intelligent agents, and finally some selected real-world problemsThe same single [AIXI approximation “MC-AIXI-CTW”] haslearned to play TicTacToe, Kuhn Poker, and most impressively,Pacman (Veness et al. 2011) from scratch Singularity Course
  • 13.  Outside the Singularity looking in it will be white noise Inside the Singularity if everything speeds up at the same rate we may not notice anything; it may seem like normal life to us Even if initially our biological brains count for something in our mental processes, very soon the processing power of the machine implant will vastly outstrip our biological brains. Our biological brains become insignificant regardless of the friendliness or lack thereof of the AI Singularity Course
  • 14.  Extreme risk taking because we can back ourselves up from backups if something bad happens Insignificance, lack of identity. Why wait to create backups when we have the processing power to run several lives at once. Can replicate ourselves endlessly in seconds! No more waiting 9 months! The world has little incentive to keep identities straight when biological brains contribute so little to mental processes. Bigger not better Aimlessness, lack of sense of purpose Singularity Course
  • 15.  The challenge of producing a friendly AI, which SIAI has taken on, becomes just a small part of the much larger challenge of creating a friendly world in which humans still have lives of significance, human history is retained and extended A positive outcome is possible; let’s make it likely We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positive outcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. We need to get busy doing that! A simple approach is needed to engage the general public on these matters! Singularity Course
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