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Why things go wrong

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Presentation on Murphy's Law by me, for the Communication & Presentation Skills class in the 1st year at my B-school

Presentation on Murphy's Law by me, for the Communication & Presentation Skills class in the 1st year at my B-school


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Transcript

  • 1. Why do things go wrong? Kshitij Varma
  • 2. Is it just plain bad luck?
  • 3. Or Murphy at Work?
    • “ Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong”
  • 4. The Genesis
    • The “ Gee Whiz ” test to simulate the force of an airplane crash (1949, Edwards Air Force Base, California)
    • Colonel John Paul Stapp – Volunteer for the test & Murphy’s Boss
    • Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr. – An engineer in the airforce
    • “ Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong” makes it to the press
  • 5. Extensions of Murphy’s Law
    • The first 90% of a project takes 90% of the time, the last 10% takes the other 90% of the time.
    • If you are good, you will be assigned all the work. If you are really good, you will get out of it.
    • Never ask two questions to an expert. The reply will discuss the one you are least interested in, and say nothing about the other.
    • Anyone can make a decision given enough facts.
    • A good manager can make a decision without enough facts.
    • A perfect manager can operate in perfect ignorance.
  • 6. Method to the madness? P M  Murphy’s Probability K M = 1 F M = 0.01 I  Importance of the Result C  Complexity of the system U  Urgency of the need F  Frequency The Toyota Tercel test (1989) I = 8 C = 5 U = 8 F = 1 P M = 1
  • 7. Murphy & Me at IIT
    • In order to get a loan you must first prove you don't need it
    • Beauty times brains equals a constant
    • The moment you have worked out an answer, start checking it -- it probably isn't right
    • The only PPTs that start on time are those that you're late for
    • The other line moves faster
    • Corollary - Don't try to change lines. The other line -- the one you were in originally -- will then move faster
  • 8. Negating Murphy – Idiot Proofing
  • 9. Have we seen the last of Murphy?
    • Make something idiot-proof, and they’ll build a better idiot! (O’Toole’s Law #1)
    • Murphy was an optimist! (O’Toole’s Law #2)
  • 10. Thank You Your Queries are welcome

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