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# F****ing Estimates

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People are bad estimators. We all know it and still customers ask "when will it be done".

This talk lists a dozen explanations why estimating doesn't work and how potentially we can solve the more global problem of needing them.

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### F****ing Estimates

1. 1. what’s the problem?
2. 2. Denver Intl. Airport
3. 3. Denver Intl. Airport
4. 4. Eurofighter Typhoon
5. 5. Eurofighter Typhoon
6. 6. Sydney Opera House
7. 7. Sydney Opera House
8. 8. Vicious Cycle in IT BUSINESS WANTS A LOT WE GIVEBUSINESS STARTS UNREALISTIC TO PRESS ESTIMATES IT WE FAIL TO BECOMES EVEN DELIVER HARDER TO DELIVER
9. 9. Let’s run an experiment!
10. 10. A simple task + = \$1,10The bat costs \$1,00 more than the ball.How much does the ball cost?
11. 11. Planning Fallacyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
12. 12. wishfulthinking optimism bias Planning Fallacy
13. 13. Student were asked to assign probabilities of completion time 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec
14. 14. what would you think?
15. 15. real completion rate14% 19% 45 % 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec
16. 16. Estimating time in real life
17. 17. wishful thinking optimism bias Planning Fallacystudent’ssyndrome procrastination
18. 18. wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy procrastination student syndrome
19. 19. “Anything less than perfect is unacceptable”“Work takes as much time as you have” Parkinson’s Law
20. 20. gps paradox optimism bias wishful thinkingperfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination
21. 21. gps paradox wishful thinking optimism bias perfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination delay propagation
22. 22. E. Goldratt Delays get accumulated.Early completions get lost.
23. 23. gps paradox wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy student syndrome procrastination delay propagation
24. 24. 4x 3x 2x 1.5xtime
25. 25. what to do?
26. 26. ONE MORE TIME1. Create …2. Never …3. … size …4. Measure …5. … = … /…6. …. customers7. Incrementally …