Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
F****ing Estimates
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

F****ing Estimates

2,042
views

Published on

People are bad estimators. We all know it and still customers ask "when will it be done". …

People are bad estimators. We all know it and still customers ask "when will it be done".

This talk lists a dozen explanations why estimating doesn't work and how potentially we can solve the more global problem of needing them.


0 Comments
6 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,042
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
12
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
14
Comments
0
Likes
6
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. what’s the problem?
  • 2. Denver Intl. Airport
  • 3. Denver Intl. Airport
  • 4. Eurofighter Typhoon
  • 5. Eurofighter Typhoon
  • 6. Sydney Opera House
  • 7. Sydney Opera House
  • 8. Vicious Cycle in IT BUSINESS WANTS A LOT WE GIVEBUSINESS STARTS UNREALISTIC TO PRESS ESTIMATES IT WE FAIL TO BECOMES EVEN DELIVER HARDER TO DELIVER
  • 9. Let’s run an experiment!
  • 10. A simple task + = $1,10The bat costs $1,00 more than the ball.How much does the ball cost?
  • 11. Planning Fallacyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
  • 12. wishfulthinking optimism bias Planning Fallacy
  • 13. Student were asked to assign probabilities of completion time 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec
  • 14. what would you think?
  • 15. real completion rate14% 19% 45 % 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec
  • 16. Estimating time in real life
  • 17. wishful thinking optimism bias Planning Fallacystudent’ssyndrome procrastination
  • 18. wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy procrastination student syndrome
  • 19. “Anything less than perfect is unacceptable”“Work takes as much time as you have” Parkinson’s Law
  • 20. gps paradox optimism bias wishful thinkingperfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination
  • 21. gps paradox wishful thinking optimism bias perfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination delay propagation
  • 22. E. Goldratt Delays get accumulated.Early completions get lost.
  • 23. gps paradox wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy student syndrome procrastination delay propagation
  • 24. 4x 3x 2x 1.5xtime
  • 25. what to do?
  • 26. ONE MORE TIME1. Create …2. Never …3. … size …4. Measure …5. … = … /…6. …. customers7. Incrementally …