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Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
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Stop asking WHEN?

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Often wrong estimations are blamed as causes of project failures. …

Often wrong estimations are blamed as causes of project failures.

In this talk I'm explaining why we as human beings inevitably suck at estimating our work in time. Irrational behaviour, cognitive biases, and laws of project nature work against a team trying to make estimates.

Stop asking "when" - this is a wrong question.

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Transcript

  • 1. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri
  • 2. I’m one of the scrum guides
  • 3. … when I am not coaching
  • 4. BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH
  • 5. THE VICIOUS CICLE BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH UNDER PRESSURE WE ESTIMATE WORSE WE FAIL AGAIN BUSINESS PUSHES HARDER
  • 6. A TYPICAL PROJECT … #NOESTIMATES we should have multiplied by 2x….
  • 7. Denver Intl. Airport
  • 8. Denver Intl. Airport
  • 9. Eurofighter Typhoon
  • 10. Eurofighter Typhoon
  • 11. Sydney Opera House
  • 12. Sydney Opera House
  • 13. *CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group Statistically a software development project will take x2.0 MONEY x1.6 TIME
  • 14. we’re good a solving simple tasks!
  • 15. 1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10 2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?
  • 16. we’re good a solving simple tasks… NOT!
  • 17. The “software” of our brain is buggy.
  • 18. DON’T READ THIS TEXT AND DON’T CALCULATE 3x3 = ?
  • 19. WATER SO_P SHOWER
  • 20. SALAD SO_P SPAGHETTI
  • 21. WATER SOAP SHOWER SALAD SOUP SPAGHETTI
  • 22. 3x3 = THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT» abc def
  • 23. “How much time will this feature take?” 2 days
  • 24. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? 2 days
  • 25. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? 2 days
  • 26. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec? 2 days
  • 27. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec?How much time will they allow me? 2 days
  • 28. JUMPING TOCONCLUSIONS
  • 29. SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD
  • 30. THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT
  • 31. HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?
  • 32. WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
  • 33. MCMLXXXIV good food:) WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
  • 34. “INTUITION” fast decisions low energy consumption huge energy consumption RABBIT vs. TURTLE “LOGIC” complex stuff
  • 35. RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2 WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?
  • 36. How old was Mahatma Gandhi when he died?
  • 37. 2. How old was he when he died? 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died?
  • 38. 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? 83 average 68 average
  • 39. MEET LUCY. SHE IS SHOCKED.
  • 40. LUCY. SHOCKED.
  • 41. BUTEVENIFYOUR LAZYTURTLEWOKE UP….
  • 42. THE LAWS OF NATURE WORK AGAINST YOU
  • 43. Delays get accumulated
  • 44. Delays get accumulated
  • 45. Delays get accumulated
  • 46. Delays get accumulated
  • 47. Early completion gets lost Delays get accumulated Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers
  • 48. time probability 1 THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME
  • 49. KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE THAN TO COME EARLIER
  • 50. BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY RANDOMNESS
  • 51. DEADLINE (over there)YOU RELEASE * procrastination is [TBD]
  • 52. YOU 42 SOMEONE CRAZY 242 12 142 SOMEONE BRAVE SOMEONE ELSE
  • 53. 83 average 68 average 1. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76 THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !
  • 54. as a user blah… given when then foo…
  • 55. YOU’RE KIDDING S M L MORE GROOMING
  • 56. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 Σ sprints3 2
  • 57. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
  • 58. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY sprints 3 2
  • 59. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY
  • 60. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
  • 61. спринты PROBLEM of ESTIMATIONS ?
  • 62. спринты This is REALITY. and POSSIBILITIES.
  • 63. forget all slides above…
  • 64. forget all slides above… and remember 3 advices
  • 65. STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS AND ACCURACY (as they will always suck) #1
  • 66. #2 START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND YOUR CAPACITY AND SCOPE
  • 67. #3 (in parallel) CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY AND MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE
  • 68. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri

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