B2 b 2012_presentation-g.pesti

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B2 b 2012_presentation-g.pesti

  1. 1. 4th Bi-Annual Border to Border Transportation Conference South Padre Island, Texas November 13-15, 2012 US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends Geza Pesti and Rafael Aldrete-Sanchez Center for International Intelligent Transportation Research Texas A&M Transportation Institute
  2. 2. Significance • Imports from Mexico Using Land Modes of Transport (1996- 2011 average) • Following the 2007 global financial crisis, U.S. trade sharply declined worldwide. • In 2009, imports from Mexico fall by 39.2%1. • Has there been a sustained recovery after 2009?
  3. 3. • Identify trends in freight activities across the US- Mexico border • Quantify temporal and spatial variations in surface trade. Objectives Analyze cross-border freight activities by • Mode of transport • Commodities • Border states • Ports and destination states Approach Trans-Border Surface Freight Database of the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Primary Data Source:
  4. 4. 0 100 200 300 400 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 BillionsUSD Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico 19% 18% 11% 13% 23% -5% -1% 0% 12% 7% 13% 5% 2% -14% 28% 15% Early 2000s recession 2007 global financial crisis
  5. 5. Imports 57% Exports 43% Surface Trade (2004-2011 average) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions USD Import Export Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico
  6. 6. Trade by Surface Mode Truck 82% Rail 16% Other 2% Truck 80% Rail 15% Other 5% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions USD All Surface Modes Truck Rail Import 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions USD All Surface Modes Truck Rail Export
  7. 7. Seasonal Variation
  8. 8. Surface Trade of US States with Mexico Ranked Based on Value of Traded Goods (2005-2011) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Texas California Michigan Arizona Illinois MillionsUSD
  9. 9. Freight Flow by Commodities Change in the freight value was evaluated based on six commodity groups2: • Group 1: Food, beverages, agricultural commodities (HS-code: 1-24) • Group 2: Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels (HS-code: 25-40) • Group 3: Wood, fabrics, paper products, books (HS-code: 41-71) • Group 4: Metals, metallic materials (HS-code: 72-81) • Group 5: Manufactured goods (HS-code: 82-96) • Group 6: Other goods (HS-code: 97-99)
  10. 10. Top Five Ports of Entry Over 80 % of cross-border trade between the US and Mexico is concentrated at the following five ports: • Laredo, TX • Hidalgo, TX • El Paso, TX • Otay Mesa Station, CA • Nogales, AZ
  11. 11. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Food, beverages, agricul tural commodities Minerals, chemicals, pla stic, fossil fuels Wood, fabrics, paper products, books Metals, metallic goods Manufactured goods Other goods 0 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10 Laredo El Paso Hidalgo Otay Mesa Nogales Import from Mexico (Billion USD) Import by Commodity Groups
  12. 12. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Food, beverages, agricul tural commodities Minerals, chemicals, pla stic, fossil fuels Wood, fabrics, paper products, books Metals, metallic goods Manufactured goods Other goods 0 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10 Laredo El Paso Hidalgo Otay Mesa Nogales Export to Mexico (Billion USD) Export by Commodity Groups
  13. 13. Summary Trends and spatial variations in US- Mexico cross-border freight by • Mode of transport • Commodities • Border states • Ports and destination states Results in: CIITR Research Brief US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends Looked at… Will be interesting to see …. • Can the 2010-2011 positive trends be sustained? • What will be the impact of the predicted “Fiscal Cliff” after January

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