Ppz az-abrt aug 30 2013-oslo-3
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Ppz az-abrt aug 30 2013-oslo-3

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Ppz az-abrt aug 30 2013-oslo-3 Ppz az-abrt aug 30 2013-oslo-3 Presentation Transcript

  • Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin Arctic Resources: Arctic Business Forum Round Table August 30, 2013, Oslo Emerging opportunities and existing challenges Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas National Research University ARCTIC FORUM FOUNDATION
  • World Primary Energy Consumption 2 Source: INES RAS report, May 2013 Total: 12,8 BTOE (~ 92 Bboe) Total: 18,0 BTOE (~ 130 Bboe) 2ABRT, Oslo
  • 3 Why Arctic is so important? Arctic is believed to be an area with the highest unexplored HC potential in the world By 2035 the demand for oil and gas will grow globally by 18% and 44%, respectively 60% of planned oil and gas production in 2035 will be from fields, not yet found and discovered Ref.: DNV Summer project 2011, World Energy Outlook, Oil & Gas Journal, USGS ABRT, Oslo 3
  • Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011 ABRT, Oslo 4 Energy Resources in the Arctic Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011
  • 5 Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467 Undiscovered Oil ABRT, Oslo 5
  • 6 Undiscovered Gas ABRT, Oslo 6 Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467
  • HC Resource Potential of the Arctic shelves: USA, Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Russia Producing, under development, discovered and undiscovered fields Liquid / gas Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
  • Producing, developed and discovered fields HC Resource Potential of Norwegian Continental Shelf Undiscovered unawarded resources Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
  • HC Resource Potential of the Barents Sea Producing, developed and discovered fields Undiscovered unawarded resources Table shows only undiscovered unawarded resources Green circle (Shtokman) indicates the scale Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
  • HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves Kara Sea (w/o Ob & Tazov bays) Barents Sea Laptev, East-Siberian & Chukchi seas Sea of Okhotsk Producing, under development, discovered and undiscovered fields Liquid / gas Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)
  • Russia’s conventional HC reserves & resources Ref.: D. Khramov, Rus-Norw Seminar, June 20, 2011 Total: 355 BTOE ABRT, Oslo 11
  • ABRT, Oslo 12 Development opportunities
  • Shtokman Snøhvit Skrugard-Havis (Johan Castberg) Goliat Snøhvit LNG The Barents Sea: An area of international energy cooperation Fedyn swell Gazprom Rosneft Lukoil Statoil ENI ExxonMobil 13 Novatek ABRT, Oslo Total Shell BP RN Nordic Oil AS Free economic zone?
  • Ref: V. Bashkin, R. Galiulin, Neftegaz.ru, No. 8, 2012 Agenda: A – end of the Ice Age; B – climate maxima; C – Rome climate maximum; D – human migration; E – medieval warm period; F – Little Ice Age; G – current warming 14 Years from now (x 1000) Temperature,0C A B C D E F G Cooling and warming periods in the Northern hemisphere: shipment opportunities ABRT, Oslo
  • > 1 15 Keeping the energy balance: Exploration and development cost ABRT, Oslo 15 > 1 trillion $ Exploration expenditures, all Russian shelves
  • 16  Environmental & Reputation  Geological ‒ Low exploration status  Political ‒ Territorial disputes ‒ Security of Supply  Economics/Costs ‒ High CAPEX / OPEX and transportation cost  Competing resources ‒ Shale gas & CBM, lower cost OPEC oil  Harsh environment Source: K. Mørk, DnV, 2012 Challenges associated with the development of Arctic resources: Concluding remarks ABRT, Oslo
  • 17 Opportunities associated with the development of Arctic resources: Concluding remarks ABRT, Oslo  Environmental & Reputation  Geological  Political  Economics/Costs Technology tunnel concept: Develop oil/gas fields from a shoreline base Cavern(s) Sea level Onshore facilities Technology Tunnel  Build dry. Wet or dry drilling/production  L < 30 km, D 6+ m, Cavern 35 m high  Max depth 350 m below sea level Production wells Control room Rig SedimentsRock Pumping pit  Technology development  Security of supply: ‒ Infrastructure development ‒ Pan Arctic transshipment  Education and culture ‒ Joint international programs
  • We can have a safe, secure and reliable development of arctic resources… only through cooperation, not competition, among arctic nations. Any other way of doing this… will not benefit any nation in the long run. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel S. Sullivan, Oct. 15, 2007 18ABRT, Oslo
  • ABRT, Oslo 19 A. Kontorovich, RAO-2009 In the second part of XXI century production of HC in the Arctic petroleum mega basin will be as important in energy supply as Persian Gulf and West Siberia basins today
  • Thank you! Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin E-mail: anatoly.zolotukhin@gmail.com Phone/Fax: +7 499 135 75 16 ABRT, Oslo 20