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Zone 1 & 2 presentation 7 24-08 Zone 1 & 2 presentation 7 24-08 Presentation Transcript

  • GENERAL ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES AND THE LOTTERY GAMING FACILITY BIDS A presentation to the State of Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission Review Board by William R. Eadington, Ph.D. July 24, 2008
  • GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE CONSULTANT REPORTS • Review Board has been charged with selecting projects that will – maximize revenues for the State of Kansas – enhance tourism and economic development in Kansas or its geographic regions, and – be in the best interests of the citizens of Kansas. • Consultants’ findings and conclusions based on – their experience & expertise – descriptions presented in the proposals – facts and data drawn from their own research, and – the conceptual and empirical models consultants have applied to their analysis • Complex issues => Board should ask questions as they come up during Consultant Presentations
  • GENERAL ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES AND CASINO INDUSTRIES • A high proportion of customers and gaming revenues will come from the local/regional market, within a 100 mile radius of the gaming venues • Distance makes a difference => The closer a customer is to a casino, the greater the aggregate spend per annum at that facility • Casino markets that attract a substantial portion of their clientele from beyond 100 miles usually have significant non-gaming amenities (i.e. outdoor recreation options, scenic attractions, entertainment offerings, or unusual retail, hotel and restaurant outlets.) They also tend to have casino “clusters” – LV, Reno, Tahoe, Palm Springs, Niagara Falls, Biloxi, Atlantic City • Restricted markets (monopolies) can create substantial profit opportunities that can prevail for relatively long periods – Certainly the case for Sumner County
  • OTHER ECONOMIC FACTORS • The gaming products found in casinos (slot machines, table games) are highly commoditized – Convenience, pricing are the dominant considerations • The challenge, therefore, is for a casino company to create good reasons for customers to come to their facilities rather than competitors • Differentiation can occur with ambience, theming, branding, scale, entertainment, non-gaming amenities, loyalty programs, complementary policies, hosting, etc. • The closer the consumer is to the casino, the more “gaming centric” the consumer is likely to be – Non-gaming amenities are more attractive to distant visitors (tourists) than to locals
  • ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ISSUES • Since local customers are more “gaming centric,” they will have only limited impact on businesses outside the casino complex – Major economic impacts are more related to employment and increased incomes • “Net Economic Impact” is the employment and revenue gains from a particular project being developed – These come from “exports” and “import substitution” – Distinguish from “cannibalization” of other local business, via redirected spending • Fiscal impacts take into consideration increased demands for public services and infrastructure v. new sources of tax revenues for state and local governments
  • GENERAL ECONOMIC OBSERVATIONS ON THE SOUTHEAST ZONE • When law was passed, reasonable to build a casino in Southeast Kansas with a CAPEX of $250 m + • However, Downstream Casino => $300 m+ – 2,000 slot machines – 45 table games – 15 poker tables – 12 story, 226 room hotel • Market may not support Downstream, let alone another casino of similar size – Merrill Lynch projected $140 m in TR; Wells & Cummings considerably less – Kansas casino would have a substantially greater effective tax rate (27% v. 6%) – Strategic dilemma for Penn National Cherokee => request “phasing in” to get to their $250 million required CAPEX
  • GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE GENERAL STATE OF CASINO MARKETS • Unprecedented increases in gasoline prices and airline ticket prices, as well as increasing food prices – Family budget constraints are more important than in prior years – This affects some households much more dramatically than others • Low levels of consumer confidence with respect to the National economic outlook – Declines for past 6 months; lowest level since 1990 – Consumers in general are going to be more cautious about discretionary spending under such circumstances • Corporations are typically much more cost conscious in recessionary times => Less generous for expense account conventions in Las Vegas or elsewhere • The sub-prime mortgage crisis has adversely affected specific groups in society who are no longer able or willing to participate in the marketplace – Households who are in, or facing, foreclosure – Construction workers, realtors, others in financial services – Others who fear job loss or related cut-backs in income
  • STOCK MARKET PRICE TRENDS FOR MGM, WYNN, LVS, BOYD 2007-2008
  • A NUMBER OF MAJOR GAMING STATES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED: NEVADA NEVADA YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH RATES, SAME MONTH PRIOR YEAR COMPARISONS 2001-2008 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% January-01 January-02 January-03 January-04 January-05 January-06 January-07 January-08 -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00%
  • PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE: ATLANTIC CITY ATLANTIC CITY: YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH RATE, SAME MONTH PRIOR YEAR COMPARISON 2001-2008 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 -5.00% -10.00% -15.00%
  • ILLINOIS RIVERBOAT CASINOS ILLINOIS YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH RATES, SAME MONTH PRIOR YEAR COMPARISON 2000-2008 35.00% 25.00% 15.00% 5.00% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 -5.00% -15.00% -25.00%
  • CONNECTICUT TRIBAL CASINOS CONNECTICUT TRIBAL CASINOS YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH, SAME MONTH PRIOR YEAR 2001-2008 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00%
  • POSSIBLE EXCEPTION: DETROIT (MGM up 19.0%, or $45 million, for first 6 months of 2008) MICHIGAN YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH RATE, SAME MONTH PRIOR YEAR COMPARISONS 2001-2008 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 -10.00% -20.00%
  • SMOKING BANS HAVE BEEN SURPRISING IN THEIR IMPACTS EFFECTS OF SMOKING BANS ON GROWTH 15% RATES OF GAMING REVENUES VARIOUS JURISDICTIONS 10% 5% 0% Year Before First Year Second Year Third Year -5% Victoria,Australia Saskatchewan -10% New Zealand -15% Washington (non-tribal) Delaware -20% -25% -30% -35%
  • GENERAL ECONOMIC OBSERVATIONS ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONE • Regional monopoly casino => nearest competing (Oklahoma tribal) casinos will be at least fifty miles away – Monopoly profit potential • Competitive bidding process: proposals try to preserve a portion of the monopoly profits, but with proposed attractions and amenities to gain comparative advantage – Challenge is to win the bid without giving up too much profit potential • Local customers more influenced by gaming offering; tourists will be drawn more by non-gaming amenities – What is it about this casino that would make me want to visit it rather than my other choices?
  • COMPARATIVE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE COMPETING PROPOSALS • Capabilities of the applicants to deliver on their promises – Financial status – track record – Processes and incentives (for customers, employees, management) • What does the applicant really bring to the Zone and the State? – Brands, player lists, cross-marketing capabilities – Excuses for locals and tourists to visit their facility • What are the comparative strengths of applicants to attract local visitors? To attract tourist visitors? – Role of distance; role of non-gaming amenities