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    Project Agincort D&D Project  1 Project Agincort D&D Project 1 Document Transcript

    • About this document
      The MCIIS Human Smuggling Denial and Deception Strategic Assessment Team, nicknamed Team Agincourt, conducted a research project to assess the use of denial and deception by human smuggling networks conducting operations into the United States. After conducting approximately ten weeks of open source research, analysts produced numerous estimates as they pertain to each border; Southern, Northern, and Atlantic/Pacific. Team Agincourt approached the project with the following finalized requirement in mind:
      Requirement: How do human smuggling networks utilize denial and deception within the networks conducting operations into the United States (with a primary emphasis on operations along the southern border) In the process of examining the question, the following areas will be addressed:
      Analyze human smuggling networks to determine their strengths and weaknesses
      Examine other illegal networks to assess the use of denial and deception techniques and their influences on human smuggling networks bringing people into the US
      Estimate tactical and strategic changes with human smuggling organizations bringing people into the US over the next five years
      The team consisted of six senior students of the MCIIS program. These analysts were paired into regional teams focusing on the Southern Border Region, Northern Border Region, and Atlantic/Pacific Border Region. Team Agincourt carried out this project from 9 September 2009 to 11 November 2009. All information and assessments in this document are accurate as of 11 November 2009.
      Frank Caprezza Justin Hall
      Kyle Doyle Kathleen Rhodes
      Kirk Shoemaker Katherine Porter

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      Key Findings:
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely smuggling networks utilize similar tactics to bring humans into the United States regardless of the human cargos end purpose. However, it is highly likely networks employ the tactics differently based on the type of human cargo. For example, while it is likely a terrorist could enter the US on foot; it is more likely migrant workers account for the majority of smuggling via foot. It is likely smuggling networks will continue utilizing similar tactical methods of denial and deception for each category of human cargo over the next five years.
      It is unlikely human smuggling networks will change from their current modus operandi over the next five years. Rather, it is likely human smuggling networks are comfortable and successful with their current smuggling strategies. It is likely the level of strategic denial and deception varies among human smuggling organizations depending on the US border they are trying to penetrate. It is highly likely smuggling networks along the southern border smuggle the majority of human cargo into the US for economic reasons. In contrast, it is likely smuggling networks operating along the northern and Atlantic and Pacific borders smuggle human cargo for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, terrorism, and other criminal activities.
      It is likely that the prospect of Special Interest Aliens employing Augmented Reality (AR) Technology as a method of denial and deception will increase over the next five years. Sophisticated yet, soon to be easily accessible technology such as AR hardware and software is making it likely that special interest individuals, terrorists, and non-state enemies of the United States (US) will likely be able to cross US borders without the risk of apprehension, extortion, or any physical discomfort. Such “cyber-smuggling,” promoted by AR technology, denies the US law enforcement and intelligence communities the ability to interdict potentially hostile activities, such as training, site selection/reconnaissance and, face to face meetings.
      Southern Border:
      It is likely human smuggling operations along the border require little use of strategic denial and deception; rather smugglers are highly likely utilizing tactical ad hoc deception methods to avoid and evade law enforcement. Due to the type of human cargo primarily smuggled through the southern border, smugglers are highly likely to employ the Supermarket Model of smuggling. This model describes the practice of smuggling large volumes of migrants across the border at a very low cost. Smugglers likely have little financial incentive to ensure human cargo succeeds in entering the US and thus likely make little concerted effort to plan and forecast their smuggling operations. However, the one element where smugglers are likely making a strategic effort to deny law enforcement access is in communications. Smugglers likely deny law enforcement information through the deliberate use of unsophisticated and one time use communication methods. It is likely, over the next five years, smugglers will continue to use low-tech communications methods to subvert law enforcements attempts to monitor and penetrate their communications.
      Northern Border:
      It is likely that human smugglers will continue to use strategic denial and deception methods such as large scale document fraud and disinformation to prevent law enforcement from obtaining mission essential information on the smuggling network itself and the human cargo being smuggled. It is likely that human smugglers will continue to use Canada’s liberal refugee laws as a method of deception to counter US authorities. Due to the relatively low volume and high value of smuggled individuals that enter the US from Canada, it is likely that smuggling networks will continue to formulate and employ strategic efforts, such as tunnel construction, to deny and deceive law enforcement. Although strategic methods are utilized by smuggling networks across the northern border, they also implement tactical intelligence strategies to evade and mislead law enforcement. For example, smugglers often avoid ports or entry along popular border crossing points, but instead use the cover of darkness, heavily wooded areas and maritime routes that usually go unmonitored by border patrol agents.
      Atlantic and Pacific Borders:
      It is unlikely that smugglers bringing human cargo into the US via the Atlantic and Pacific are using strategic denial and deception methods to deceive law enforcement. In contrast to previous assessments, Asian smuggling networks are likely becoming decentralized, familial networks that operate in limited numbers in order to bring siblings, relatives, and even close friends across the border into the US. For areas such as the Caribbean region there are minimal strategic efforts to deny and deceive law enforcement officials. Rather smuggling networks typically employ similar tactics to smugglers operating along the southern border. These tactics include ad hoc organizational structures and tactical route changes. It is unlikely that sophisticated modes of communication or technology will be implemented by smuggling networks in either of the Caribbean or Asian-Pacific region. This is due to most forms of communication taking place in person with no need for the use of sophisticated technology. It is also unlikely that human smuggling networks practice any methods of denial and deception after smuggled individuals cross the border.
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      Table of Contents
      A
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      Kathleen R. Rhodes, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Likely Smuggling Networks Will Continue to Utilize the Same Denial and Deception Techniques as Those in the Past
      Executive Summary: It is likely smuggling networks utilize similar tactics to bring humans into the United States regardless of the human cargos end purpose. However, it is highly likely networks employ the tactics differently based on the type of human cargo. For example, while it is likely a terrorist could enter the US on foot; it is more likely migrant workers account for the majority of smuggling via foot. It is likely smuggling networks will continue utilizing similar tactical methods of denial and deception for each category of human cargo over the next five years.
      Discussion:
      In attempts to comprehend the extent to which human smuggling networks utilize denial and deception, it was essential to break down the various types of human cargo that networks bring into the US. For this tasking, we identified five primary reasons behind individuals being smuggled into the US are classified them as follows:
      Migrant Workers
      Trafficking (Sex and/or Labor)
      Familial
      Asylum
      Terrorism
      The main techniques used by these various smuggling networks in efforts to smuggle people across the border can be categorized as the following:
      Modes of Transportation
      Corruption
      Document Fraud
      Augmented Reality
      Each category has multiple subcomponents in order to further analyze the tactics smugglers employ during their smuggling operations (See Graph Below). For those being smuggled into the US for migrant worker reasons, the main methods utilized were the various modes of transportation, such as walking across the border, or being driven across in vehicles that have been altered in order to conceal hidden compartments. For the individuals (children and adults) being smuggled in to the US who are then later forced into sex/labor trafficking, the most common means of entering the country are by land in altered commercial vehicles or by sea in cargo ships or small pleasure crafts, such as speed boats, as well as through the use of false documentation. The people being smuggled into the country for familial reasons almost mirror the manner in which migrant workers are being smuggled in, mainly through the use of altered vehicles via land routes. It can be generalized that those seeking to claim asylum within the US likely utilize guides as well as altered vehicles in order to reach the soil of the US and claim their status. As for terrorists, it is likely the smuggling tactics most commonly implemented are the use of false documentation, likely provided by a corrupt official within the country of origin, in combination with flying into an outside country, such as Canada, and then crossing the border into the US. In the future, it is likely terrorists will employ the use of sophisticated technology, such as those becoming available through augmented reality, to assist in an act of terrorism against the US.
      The following graph represents the description of the specific types of groups being smuggled into the United States as well as the most common techniques implemented in order to ensure their placement across the border:
      247650441960
      LegendX- Represents the idea that the implementation of a technique used is “possible” XX- Represents the idea that the implementation of a technique used is “likely”XXX- Represents the idea that the implementation of a technique used is “highly likely”
      Katherine. R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Passport Fraud and Exploitation Easy Tasks for the Smuggler
      Executive Summary:
      Human Smugglers likely use fraudulent and exploited passports during the smuggling process. While security features in passports has greatly increased in the last decade, smuggles still use forged and misused genuine documents. It is likely U.S. passports and passports for Visa Waiver Program countries are the most sought after and used passports because of the freedom and maneuverability they present smugglers.
      Discussion:
      The US State Department estimates that human smuggling is a USD10 billion per year global industry, a portion of that money is related to fraudulent documents. Depending on the distance from a source country to the US, illegitimate documentation can be used as a cheap way to smuggler migrants into the country. Document fraud in human smuggling operations falls under two categories: (1) forged or altered documents and (2) genuine documents under false identities.
      The ability to acquire official looking false documentation has historically, been a goal of organized international crime, including smuggling networks. The quality of counterfeit documents varies greatly, depending on the intended use of the document. For example, if a passport is to pass by immigration inspectors much more fine detail is needed. In order to achieve such sophistication networks employ advanced photo shop, graphic design computers, laminating equipment, and the use of holographic design. For simpler uses, such as documents for employment, documents are not as high quality. Counterfeiters for example will use car window tinting to mimic magnetic strips. The most common form of false passport fraud is photo-substitution, particularly for passports originating from countries that do not have sophisticated security features. The Chinese smugglers, snakeheads, are known for using false passports.
      Smugglers also exploit genuine documents to deceive law enforcement during the smuggling process. There are several methods smugglers use to obtain legitimate passports. The most common method is to pose as someone else, with a legitimate birth certificate and photo identification. Birth certificates are kept by local governments, which are more easily corrupted, and can be reissued, to a person upon the presentation of proper identification. Smugglers also steal dead peoples’ identity to deceive the federal passport agency.
      Other methods used by smugglers to exploit genuine passports include simply purchasing them on the black market, purchasing passports from traveling U.S. citizens, and child substitution. According to 2004 State Department statistics false claims of stolen, lost or damaged passports accounted for one-third of all detected passport fraud. U.S. passports can cost as much as USD 10,000 to USD 15,000 on the black market. Child substitution involves a counterfeiter contacting a legitimate U.S. citizen, convincing them to sell their children’s identity, and creating real documents based on stolen identities.
      Passports from other countries are also used to deceive law enforcement during the smuggling process. New Zealand, for example, enjoys Visa Waiver Program (VWP) statues; however each year approximately 12,000 passports are lost or stolen. On the black market these passports command a price of as much as USD 60,000. Under the VWP travelers from 34 countries to travel to and enter the United States for business or visitor purposes for up to 90 days without obtaining a visa. Travelers with VWP passports can also travel to Canada or Mexico and then be readmitted into the U.S. without resubmitting documentation. Chances are greater than even smuggler use the U.S. as a transit point to deliver genuine or forged documentation from abroad into Mexico or Canada where it can be further distributed.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials. Additionally, an interview with a US border agent aided in providing background information for this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Kirk M. Shoemaker, Project Agincourt
      November, 2009
      Prospect Of Special Interest Aliens Employing Augmented Reality Technology As Denial/Deception Likely To Increase In The Next Five Years
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that the prospect of Special Interest Aliens employing Augmented Reality (AR) Technology as a method of denial and deception will increase over the next five years. Sophisticated yet, soon to be easily accessible technology such as AR hardware and software is making it likely that special interest individuals, terrorists, and non-state enemies of the United States (US) will likely be able to cross US borders without the risk of apprehension, extortion, or any physical discomfort. Such “cyber-smuggling,” promoted by AR technology, denies the US law enforcement and intelligence communities the ability to interdict potentially hostile activities, such as training, site selection/reconnaissance and face to face meetings. Numerous sources such as the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, Google trends, and Business Week, as well as private research consultants affirm the likely explosive growth of AR technology. It is likely that the convergence of several factors, including increased dialogue between scientists and researchers as well as a rise in media coverage, is propelling the rapid development of AR.
      Discussion:
      New layer " Augmented Reality" technology adds information to the urban landscapes you view via a smartphone camera. http://www.twincities.com/techtestdrive/ci_13464161right17145The development of sophisticated, yet widely accessible, technology such as AR likely poses a unique threat to the US in terms of denial and deception. Although advanced technology such as AR promises to make lives easier for many Americans by allowing them access and transmit general and specific information about their surroundings and activities, there is likely a darker side to this sophistication. Teacher and technology expert Jamais Cascio has already identified the potential nefarious acts that AR invites in terms of spam and viruses but what about the use of AR by terrorists and non-state enemies of the US? Also, in regard to the smuggling of special interest aliens it is likely that AR will become a prominent tool of education and training.
      Imagine if instead of having to risk apprehension, extortion, or any physical discomfort in order to be smuggled into the US, a special interest alien could easily enter the US through the use of AR and in actuality not be physically present. For individuals interested in terroristic activities, such as training, site selection, and reconnaissance, as well as face to face meetings, this would be an excellent way to avoid detection and deny law enforcement officials the ability to interdict such activity. In a report created for the FBI, authors Cowper and Buerger believe that AR technology, “afford[s] criminals and terrorists new opportunities for exploiting, disrupting and harming society.” They hold that, “police personnel need to fully understand current AR capabilities and what will emerge in the coming decades.” Of specific interest is AR’s ability to potentially allow for the “cyber-smuggling” of individuals into the US and virtually interact with and manipulate data, share real and virtual space with others, and see real time information around them. Specifically focusing on AR technology, the International Symposium on Mixed and Augmented Reality (ISMAR 09), held in Orlando, Florida, in October 2009, will likely help to drive AR and make it more accessible in the near future. The increase in dialogue between scientists and researchers, coupled with the rise in media coverage, will likely push the boundaries of AR over the next several years.
      AR essentially takes input from the outside world, usually through a live video feed and then superimposes upon the real world computer-generated images that move in accordance with the camera’s motion. In existence for about 15 years, the technology has had the interest of the US military but few others. However that is changing and Google trends, an advanced search tracking tool, is mapping a striking increase in the number of searches and queries about AR. On 3 November, 2009 Business Week commented that, “As we look back on the year's technology milestones, 2009 may go down as the year of the rise of augmented reality. As recently as January, this meshing of digital information with real-world images sparked little interest even in the geekiest of circles.” Christine Perey, a principal at Perey Research & Consulting, who advises companies on mobile augmented reality, is excited about the future of AR. She writes, “The market for AR applications on smartphones is so new that it has gone from virtually no users in 2008 to an expected 600,000 by the end of 2009…By 2012 there will be 150 million to 200 million users. That would make up only about 3 percent of the world's mobile-user base but still a high percentage of smartphone users.” This technology is increasingly popular in countries like the US, Japan, and Korea, as well as throughout Europe.
      Despite the fact that at the present, AR technology is receiving an increase in attention, in reality it is still in its developmental phase. Before AR can become affordable, accessible, and a viable option for consumers there are still several key issues that require the attention of the scientific community. These factors are currently limiting the mobility of individuals from entering the US virtually rather than physically. AR technology currently is limited to handheld devices that do not possess the computing power, battery life, and proper software to fully capitalize on the potential of AR. Presently there are only a few practical applications of AR and there is a long way to go before this technology can be trusted. The iPhone and devices powered by Google's Android OS already have some AR apps, but these are mostly limited to overlaying directions or tourist information on a view of the real world. Adam Young of the University of Rochester wrote in 1997 that we “need take into account other challenges like response time delays, hardware failure, or software failures. Once we overcome such challenges we will be well on our way to creating a reliable AR system. Although over 12 years have passed, many of these challenges still remain. Sensors and chips in portable electronics must continue to become more powerful, for AR to be successful.
      In terms of assessing the potential threat of AR and the growing possibility of “Cyber Smuggling,” the US law enforcement and intelligence communities seem to be only in the early stages of recognition. Although the US Customs and Border Patrol created the Customs Cyber Smuggling Center (C3) in 1997 as a center focused on Internet investigations, it seems unlikely that they are ready for the possible use of AR as a method to provide special interest individual’s and potential threats access to the US. Rather, it is likely that C3 is struggling with an overlarge tasking which includes: child pornography trafficking, international money laundering, international drug trafficking, intellectual property rights violations (including music and software), international economic espionage, trafficking in environmental contaminants, illegal arms trafficking, and traffic in weapons of mass destruction.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is high given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. Open source internet documents as well as intuition and logic provided the majority of the information and analysis found in this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kirk M. Shoemaker
      Southern Border
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely human smuggling operations along the border require little use of strategic denial and deception; rather smugglers are highly likely utilizing tactical ad hoc deception methods to avoid and law enforcement. Southern border smugglers highly likely employ the Supermarket Model of smuggling that is, smuggling large volumes of migrants across the border at a very low overhead cost. Smugglers also likely have little financial incentive to ensure human cargo succeed in entering the US. However, the one element of operations smugglers make a concerted effort to deny law enforcement access is likely to their communications. Smugglers likely deny law enforcement information through the deliberate use of unsophisticated and one time use communications methods. It is likely over the next five years smugglers will continue to use low-tech communications methods to subvert law enforcements attempts to monitor and penetrate smugglers communications.
      Key Findings Based on the Steps in the Human Smuggling Process
      Recruiting Operations:
      Human smuggling networks likely do little to deny and deceive law enforcement regarding their recruiting efforts. Human Smugglers traditionally recruit via word of mouth, advertising, and reputation. It is highly likely that Mexican citizens are well aware of the contacts and requirements necessary to be smuggled into the US and they do little to report smugglers to law enforcement officials. Additionally, the sheer volume of individuals being smuggled from Mexico makes it difficult for law enforcement to counter and prevent smuggling operations and recruiting and makes the use of denial and deception unnecessary for smugglers.
      Transportation Within Mexico:
      Human Smugglers highly likely utilize a variety of methods to transport potential smuggled cargo from the interior of Mexico to the border. While, smugglers are likely to change and vary methods and routes based on tactical necessity it is unlikely smugglers are using strategic denial and deception methods such as document large scale fraud or disinformation to hinder law enforcement.
      It is likely there are three sub-categories of potential human cargo smugglers need to transport through-out the country to the border in preparation for crossing the border:
      Category I: Individuals of Mexican descent - no need to deceive Mexican law enforcement.
      Category II: Non-Mexicans but individuals from Latino countries - limited deception needed to transport cargo throughout Mexico en-route to US/Mexican border.
      Category III: Individuals from countries other than Central and South America - Smugglers are likely to conceal transportation and utilize deception during movement of Category III cargo through Mexico toward US/Mexican border. Based upon this assessment, it is likely that smugglers will attempt to conceal the transportation of Category III individuals in order to avoid corrupt law enforcement and other gangs attempting to exploit potential Category III customers.
      Transportation From Mexican Border Into The US:
      Due to the volume and constant flow of smuggled individuals that enter the US from Mexico, it is unlikely that smuggling networks formulate and employ strategic efforts (such as tunnel construction) to deny and deceive law enforcement. Rather, human smugglers primarily focus on securing transportation routes along the border from rival smuggling organizations. Mexican street gangs, such as MS-13, and enforcer gangs, such as Los Zetas, are likely employed to secure and protect human, drug, and weapon smuggling routes.
      While strategic efforts to deny and deceive law enforcement officials are minimal, smugglers are highly likely to utilize tactical intelligence methods to evade and mislead law enforcement. For example, smugglers often use spotters to monitor border patrol agents, track their shifts/schedules, and identify trends in border patrol movement.
      Category I: Individuals of Mexican dissent:
      Smugglers highly likely make little or no effort to deny law enforcement officials information regarding Category I transportation routes. It is likely smugglers are paid the least to smuggle Category I cargo and smugglers care little if persons are smuggled successfully into the US. Consequently, smugglers likely use little strategic denial and deception and rather they focus on tactical ad hoc route changes.
      Category II: Non-Mexicans but individuals from Latino countries:
      Smugglers transporting Category II cargo from Mexico into the US likely utilize similar tactical methods as those used in smuggling Category I cargo.
      Category III: Individuals from countries other than Central and South America:
      It is likely Category III cargo pay smugglers the highest price, as much as USD 70,000, to enter the US. Based on the amount they pay, it is likely smugglers use routes that offer smugglers the greatest probability of successfully smuggling cargo into the US. However, it is likely the primary means of accomplishing this is through the use of ad-hoc (tactical) bribery of border patrol/crossing officials. simple non-secure methods, such as rushing the border, to more secure methods that will ensure the human cargo will indeed make it into US.
      Communication And Technology:
      It is highly likely that the " supermarket model" of human smuggling creates an environment that requires little use of strategic denial and deception. Rather, smugglers focus on tactical and ad hoc denial and deception methods to evade law enforcement. There is likely an attempt to conceal communications and deny law enforcement access to mission essential information through the use of unsophisticated technology such as prepaid cellular (drop) phones, paper records (ledgers), and face to face communication.
      The unsophisticated methods that smugglers use to communicate are in stark contrast with the methods utilized by human traffickers. Traffickers are highly likely to employ numerous sophisticated and preplanned methods, such as encryption codes, preplanned posting on blogs and internet articles, and chat room communications, in order to deny law enforcement information about their operations. It is likely an indication to law enforcement that if they witness an increase in the sophistication of communications equipment and methods human traffickers are likely operating in the area.
      Distribution Of Human Cargo:
      Based upon the simplistic nature delivery, once the smuggled individuals have entered the US, it is unlikely that human smuggling organizations practice any methods aimed at denial and deception.
      Financing and Payment:
      Although smuggling organizations are currently utilizing wire transfers as a method to send and receive money, it is likely that the continued pressure and an increase in financial analysis by law enforcement will force human smugglers to transition to non-electronic forms of payment. It is likely that human smugglers are converting to cash transactions which utilize individuals employed as money couriers to transport funds across the US/Mexican border. While this method is likely less secure for the smuggling organization, it denies law enforcement an electronic money trail as well as prevents officials from filing criminal charges related to money laundering.
      Katherine. R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Supermarket Model of Human Smuggling Likely the Best Practice for Human Smugglers Operating Along the Southern Border
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely the “Supermarket Model” is considered best practice amongst human smugglers operating along the southern US border. According to the Supermarket Model, smugglers attempt to rush the border with a large number of migrants at very low fees. The Supermarket Model is extremely fluid and lacks vertical integration; this fact allows smuggling networks to deny law enforcement the ability disrupt the smuggling chain by arresting one link. Additionally, the quick turnaround in smuggling operations, naturally, hinders law enforcements ability to track and monitor operations for long period of times, thus denying security officials from gaining strategic insight into operations.
      Discussion:
      Figure 1: The primary difference between the Trade and Development Model and the Supermarket Model is the level of structure within the organization and the level of violence used. Graphic courtesy of: http://www.osce.org/documents/pdf_documents/2009/08/39299-6.pdf 153352551435The Supermarket Model is a term coined by American University Professor Louise Shelley. Following the model smugglers focus on economies of scale—low cost high volume of migrants crossing the border daily. The typical fee for a Mexican to enter the United States (US) can range from USD 1,200 to 2,500 and an estimated 700,000 migrants enter the US every year. Consequently, human smuggling is an extremely lucrative and easy business for Mexicans to join.
      The Supermarket Model is also advantages to the potential human cargo. Typically, potential human cargo does not pay the smuggler prior to successful entry into the US. Rather, the potential client pays a small fee prior to crossing the border and will pay in full once successfully arriving into the US. If a migrant is caught during the process they do not lose a large amount of money and can try again. The smuggler has little incentive under this model to protect the migrant and to ensure a successful delivery. Additionally, due to the large numbers of migrants that want to come to America, smugglers have an almost endless supply of migrants and clientele.
      Additionally, the Supermarket Model lacks vertical integration, which hinders law enforcement’s ability to arrest and disrupt the smuggling chain. Smuggling is divided into compartmentalized categories and it is likely members of the chain are only aware of the next link and are unlikely to know detailed information of the larger organizational structure.
      The Supermarket Model is in stark contrast to the model used by other smugglers, particularly Chinese smugglers. Chinese smugglers practice the Trade and Development Model, according to Shelley, which indicates a high level of sophistication and organization. Chinese smugglers, snakeheads, historically smuggle via maritime routes, which necessarily require large scale operations. For example, the Chinese are known for their passport/document fraud skills and use of corrupt government officials to obtain illegitimate documents. As a result, snakeheads charge exorbitant fees, relative to the income of Chinese citizens.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials. Additionally, an interview with a US border agent aided in providing background information for this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Katherine. R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Smuggling Organizations Primary Focus is Likely the Denial of Communications to Law Enforcement
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely the supermarket model of human smuggling creates a business model that does not require a great amount of denial and deception. Smugglers highly likely rush the border daily, overwhelming law enforcement. However, the area smugglers make the greatest attempt to deny law enforcement access to mission essential information, is likely by concealing their communications systems. It is likely human smuggling networks use simple methods of denial to prevent law enforcement access to information. Smugglers use of communication is highly likely in stark contrast with human traffickers who highly likely employ numerous sophisticated methods to avoid and evade law enforcement attempts to disrupt their operations.
      Discussion:
      According to border patrol estimates 1,300 miles of the almost 2,000 mile border is not under effective control. The Department of Homeland Security plans to deploy approximately 17,015, agents to the Mexican border in fiscal year 2010 to combat illegal activity. Because the border is lacking in security, smuggling organizations are able to operate relatively easily and effectively. Smuggling along the border typically follows the “Supermarket Model” of smuggling; low cost high volume; essentially smugglers run the most amount of people across as quickly as possible and hope a majority succeeded.
      To achieve the above outcome smugglers utilize a decentralized compartmentalized structure; with elements knowing only the next person in the chain. Yet, member in the chain must still communicate with each other. The first step in smuggling is recruiting; typically recruiting is done via word-of-mouth and involves communication within a family. For example, a migrant in Mexico will want a brother to come to Mexico and ask a friend to refer a smuggler. Smuggling in and around border cities is so pervasive a simple head node can indicate a migrant would like to be smuggled. Mexican smugglers also use code words to indicate their desire to be smuggled and aid in the operation.
      Once a potential migrant is identified, it is likely one time use phones and “drop phones” are used to facilitate meeting and coordination between recruiters, drivers, and other members of the chain. Along the border cell phone stores are increasing in numbers making it easier for Mexican smugglers to purchase one-time use phones. Recently, the border patrol announced a group of drug smugglers installed communications towers in the mountains along the border to facilitate communication between spotters and drivers.
      In contrast to human smugglers, human traffickers utilize sophisticated, ad-hoc internet technology to communicate. The nature of trafficking is such that both ends of the trafficking chain must communicate and communicate more than in smuggling. Traffickers use methods such as Craigslist.org, online photo sharing sites, social networking sites and other forms of media to quickly and discreetly find a destination for a trafficked person and communicate with the client purchasing the trafficked individual. Traffickers have a plethora of communication sources to choose from to avoid law enforcement, smugglers in contrast use simple one time use phones to prevent law enforcement from gaining insight into the trade.

      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials. Additionally, an interview with a US border agent aided in providing background information for this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Katherine R. Porter, Project Agincourt
      November, 2009
      Smuggling Migrants is Likely Dominated by Small Businesses; However Large Cartels are a Likely Growing Sophisticated Threat
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely there are two primary categories of smuggling operations along the southern border—small family business and large sophisticated organizations. Due to the financial incentives and ease of operations, small businesses likely smuggle the majority of human cargo across the border. Yet, large drug cartels are also highly likely involved in the business of human smuggling, however on a smaller but growing scale. Small business operations are likely less sophisticated then large cartel operations and likely specialize in only human smuggling. Due to the relative cheap cost of smuggling humans and the financial incentives, large cartels are likely to increase their involvement in the human smuggling trade over the next five years.
      1543050125730
      Discussion:
      Figure 2: Compared to drug scale operations small business smuggling encompasses fewer elements. According to border patrol estimates 1,300 miles of the almost 2,000 mile border is not under effective control. The Department of Homeland Security plans to deploy approximately 17,015, agents to the Mexican border in fiscal year 2010 to combat illegal activity. Because the border is lacking in security, small smuggling organizations are able to operate relatively easily and effectively. Smuggling along the border typically follows the “Supermarket Model” of smuggling; low cost high volume; thus advanced technology and financing are not necessary presenting an opportunity for small business to flourish. Statements made by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent indicate the majority of smuggling conducted along the southern border is ran by mom and pop small operations.
      Small businesses present the greatest challenge to law enforcement attempting to combat smuggling because their highly compartmentalized, decentralized, family structure denies law enforcement the ability to penetrate into the organization. Small businesses are, usually, family organizations and they typically recruit friends and extended family to facilitate smuggling operations. Small operations are simple and conducted in four distinct elements.
      The first element is the foot guides, who take the too be smuggled migrant and transport them to the load drivers along the Mexican side of the border. Foot guides are generally younger Mexicans, teenagers. Once a migrant is handed over to a load driver, the foot guide’s job is complete and will likely have little or no knowledge of the load driver’s phase of the operation. Load drivers; drive the migrants across the border with the aid of spotters who are posted along smuggling routes to monitor for border patrol. Spotters act as middle managers relaying information between load drivers and load house personal. The final element of the mom and pop operation are the load house operatives. They are usually the operators of the smuggling business. It is their reasonability to track the finances, arrange delivery of migrants to sponsors, and take care of aliens waiting to be transported to a final destination.
      The lack of vertical integration denies law enforcement the ability to make a relative impact on smuggling networks. For example, border patrol agents can easily arrest foot guides, however they have little or no knowledge about the load house operatives; smugglers can easily replace a member upon arrest. The family structure is also a method of denial employed by smuggling networks. Many Mexican’s do not believe smuggling migrants is a bad business and are thus unlikely to turn-in any member of the organization or suspected smugglers.
      Small scale smuggling is extremely “old fashioned” which allows it to deny law enforcement the ability to use advanced analytical processes against their organization. Small organizations typically use little if any technology, cell phones or “drop phones” are the only primary form of advanced technology used. However, cell phones are prepaid and offer law enforcement little information or value. To prevent law enforcement from tracking or recovering smuggling data, load house operators do not use computer technology; instead they prefer paper and pencil ledgers that are easily destroyable. Smugglers also typically pay and transport money in cash, denying law enforcement the opportunity to trace funds. For example, a border patrol bust on a stash house discovered individual envelopes with varying amounts of money to pay members of the smuggling ring. Smugglers also ferry cash across the border.
      In contrast, Mexican cartels are primarily focused on the drug and weapons trade along the border, however there are indications they are getting involved both directly and indirectly in the humans smuggling trade. According to 2007 figures the price a migrant Mexican pays to enter the U.S. is approximately USD 1,200 to 2,500 however non-Mexicans pay up to USD 60,000 to enter the U.S. Consequently, cartels are likely to become more involved in the human smuggling business.
      Cartels are sophisticated, possessing their own military grade weapons, technology and intelligence. Cartels use gangs, such as the Latin Kings and MS-13, on both sides of the border to act as enforcers for their operations. The primary cartels operating along the border include: the Gulf Cartel, Sinaloa (the Federation) Cartel, Juarez Cartel, and La Familia Michoachana. The structure of a cartel is similar to small operations; however cartels employ more elements and increased violence to maintain order and control during their operations. For example, the Gulf Cartel employs Los Zetas, a paramilitary group that acts as the enforcer for the cartel. Los Zetas are former Mexican military soldiers who were trained in counter narcotics by the United States.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials. Additionally, information gained through an interview with an Immigration and Customs official was invaluable to the creation of this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Katherine. R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      It is Highly Likely, Regardless of Nationality, Money Buys More Secure Routes Into the United States
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely human smugglers charge varying fees for their services based on the type of migrant smuggled and the route the migrant wants to take. It is likely secure smuggling routes are the most expensive of all routes, because they involve the use of corrupt officials and have a higher success rate of entry into the United States. Special Interest Aliens, (SIAs) likely use both secure and unsecure routes, however chances are greater than even a terrorist would use a secure route into the US.
      Discussion:
      22383759525Human Smugglers use a variety of methods to move human cargo from Mexico into the United States. Most smuggling operations fall under the supermarket model; that is sending a large number of migrants with the hope that a majority will make it across and thus be able to pay the smuggling ring. However, there is a small portion of migrants, with the financial resources, that want a secure “guaranteed” route into the US. These individuals pay more to use secure routes; secure routes are routes in which smugglers bribe law enforcement on the.
      There are two different rates for people smuggled into the US, the Mexican rate and the other than Mexican (OTM) rate. Mexican’s typically pay between USD 650 and USD 5,000 depending on the method of smuggling. For example, for a basic coyote to guide a person across the border the fee is minimal; however a migrant can pay up to USD 6,000 if a corrupt border agent is used to guarantee entry into the country. Some migrants are avoiding the border altogether, utilizing boat to ferry from Mexico into Southern California or along the Gulf Coast. It is likely as the border patrol increases its presence along the border, migrants will continue to shift toward water routes as a safer method of smuggling.
      2790825-38100In recent years the number of OTMs increased greatly, with many fearing terrorist groups use Mexico as point of entry into the US. For example, in 1997 law enforcement apprehended only 25,303 OTMs, in 2005 the number jumped to 119,182. However, upon closer examination, the majority of OTMs came from: Honduras, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Non-Mexicans, OTMs, pay a much larger fee for smuggling services in comparison to Mexicans.
      A sub-category of OTM, are special interest aliens, that is those aliens who originate from nations the Intelligence Community (IC) designated as countries that could “export individuals that could bring harm to our country in the way of terrorism.” In 1999 the number of special interest aliens was 736, in 2004 the number was 626, and 530 in 2008. One reason OTM’s and special interest alien’s avoid the southern border is the cost. Smuggling networks exploit them charging between USD 35,000 to USD 50,000 for entry into the US.
      Due to the sheer volume of both Mexican and OTM migrants smuggled across the border, law enforcement still fears special interest aliens with terrorist connection could infiltrate through the border. It is likely a special interest alien using the border would use secure routes involving corrupt officials to guarantee entry, making it more difficult for law enforcement to crackdown and track them.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Kirk M. Shoemaker, Project Agincourt
      November, 2009
      Corruption Likely Playing Major Role In Human Smuggling Operations
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that corruption is playing a major role in human smuggling operations along the southern border of the United States. While the United States Border Patrol (BP) currently remains under strength there is an alarming trend that points to increasing amounts of corruption in US BP agents. The arrest of US officials like Raul and Fidel Villarreal, individuals paid not to perform their duties indicates a gap in US national security. For Mexican smugglers, the ability to purchase the assistance of US agents as well as the endemic corruption in Mexico itself provides a relatively safe operating environment. Receiving support from corrupt Mexican businesses and being able to pay off the Mexican police promotes human smuggling operations.
      Discussion:
      Corruption On the US Side of the Border
      There is growing alarm among those working in the United States Border Patrol (BP) as well as within the Department of Homeland Security over the upsurge in corruption and bribery in both Mexico and the United States. Of particular note is an alarming pattern of corruption among US border patrol agents. Between October 2003 and April 2008, there were approximately 341 cases of alleged corruption identified in regard to US/Mexico border operations. While corruption cases are admittedly only involve a small fraction of the overall security workforce on the border, the numbers are growing and they underscore the potential vulnerability of U.S. law enforcement agencies to corruption.
      It is likely that the main impetus behind the increase in corruption is greed. Corrupt US Border Patrol Agents agree to work cooperatively with smugglers and receive a variable fee for their services. Often smugglers contract US agents to allow vehicles to pass through check points without searching or stopping them. In an arrest made on October 18, 2008, two former BP agents Raul and Fidel Villarreal face charges of conspiracy to bring in illegal aliens for financial gain, multiple counts of bringing in illegal aliens for financial gain, conspiracy to launder money, conspiracy to tamper with a witness, witness tampering, and criminal forfeiture. The two men ran their own smuggling organization and were originally bribed by Claudia Gonzalez and Armando Garcia and paid not to perform their duties of enforcing the immigration laws of the United States. Such cases are continuing to weaken US counter-smuggling operations along the Southern border and these incidents are on the rise.
      As the United States works to increase its security along the Southern border, corruption threatens national security and future progress. Terry Reed, an FBI agent in San Diego, a member of a Border Corruption Task Force, acknowledges that the problem of corrupt border guards is growing. In a FBI videotape of a border patrol crossing, a US border official under suspicion was observed waving cars through his lane at the Port of Entry, not looking at identification, not asking questions, not searching cars. One of the vehicles caught on the tape had 11 illegal immigrants inside. FBI agent Andy Black believes that “There’s more pressure on the other side of the border from the smuggling organizations to elicit the help of a corrupt border officials. The pool of individuals who are susceptible to corruption has grown.” An Associated Press investigation finds that U.S. law officers working on the US/Mexico border face criminal charges of corruption in numbers not seen before.

      Corruption On the Mexican Side of the Border
      Despite the increasing corruption in the United States, corruption is already intrinsic in Mexico and among Mexican officials. The Heritage Foundation cites that corruption in Mexico’s public and private sectors is endemic. The 2009 Index of Economic freedom identifies corruption as significant. Mexico ranks 72nd out of 179 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2007. Corruption has been pervasive for many years.
      Seeking to recruit and bribe US BP agents is an important method of operation for Mexican smugglers. In an interview with a smuggler known as Rafael, it becomes clear that having a corrupt US agent on the dole is a " guaranteed way for migrants to get across on their first try." Having corrupt officials is likely becoming a critical component for the more sophisticated smugglers.
      Mexican smuggling operations are also receiving support and crucial help from seemingly legitimate businesses that supply them with cars, lodging, plane tickets and other services. A 2007 article in the Laredo Morning Times reports that investigators believe that the number of corrupt businesses remains small however they play a significant role in helping illegal immigrants reach the US interior. Police corruption also plays a large role in furthering human smugglers ability to operate in Mexico without great concern. Reuters reports that Endemic police corruption ranging from traffic violation bribes to aiding drug gangs has long plagued Mexico. Aware of widespread police corruption, Mexican President Felipe Calderon is determined to clean up the police. He says, " We are facing a corruption rooted deep in the past and that has shamefully penetrated the organs of justice, the police and the judiciary. My government has taken on the commitment of fighting crime and corruption."
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. Although the open source internet documents provided the majority of the information in this report, a phone conversation with a human intelligence source (US Border Patrol Investigator) was extremely helpful in reinforcing the data.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kirk M. Shoemaker
      Kirk M. Shoemaker, Project Agincourt
      November, 2009
      Potential For Deception In New Generation Of United States Border Patrol Officers
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that there is a growing potential for deception in the new generation of United States (US) Border Patrol (BP) officers. The increasing number of cases and allegations against law enforcement officials operating along the Southern Border of the United States makes it probable that human smugglers are not only employing corruption and bribery but potentially taking it one step further and planting specific individuals within law enforcement agencies. As the Border Patrol seeks to expand and hire new personnel, more individuals like former Agent Oscar Antonio Ortiz, an illegal immigrant, will likely slip through the vetting process. Once smugglers and cartels realize this weakness they will likely seek to exploit the vulnerability.
      Discussion:
      It is likely that US Border Patrol is facing an emerging trend of deception that will continue to become more and more prevalent. The increase in corruption cases within the US law enforcement indicate that corruption is already a rising problem and human smuggling operations are willing to take new and more audacious steps to ensure their cargo (people) crosses the border. An MSNBC article, written in August 2009 cites that in the past ten months, 20 agents from BP have been charged with a corruption-related crime. At that pace, the organization will set a new record for in-house corruption; 90 employees have been charged with corrupt acts since October 2004. Agency officials expect those cases to continue to climb: There are 63 open criminal investigations, including corruption cases, against BP employees. Border Patrol Agent Dove Haber believes that as US law enforcement continues to take more aggressive action against smugglers, the bolder the smugglers will become.
      As the US Border Patrol continues to expand to fulfill requirements, it is likely that among the influx of new agents and officers some nefarious individuals will make it through the vetting process. US BP recruiters are looking to hire approximately 11,000 new employees in 2009 and it is probable that some of these new personnel will be willing to take bribes or succumb to corrupt activity. Also of concern is the possibility of smuggling organizations and cartels specifically planting or placing people inside of the Border Patrol for the purpose of exploiting the rapid expansion of the agency. It is already clear that individuals like Oscar Antonio Ortiz, an illegal immigrant with a forged birth certificate, are able to gain employment within the BP. Ortiz was apprehended in August 2005 after three years of distinguished service in the BP. Following his arrest Ortiz admitted smuggling at least 100 illegal immigrants into the U.S., sometimes by driving them in his Border Patrol truck.
      Clark Ervin, former inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the Border Patrol, believes that " The more pressure there is to hire people quickly, the more dysfunction there is." This presents a case that believes it likely that smugglers will strive to utilize this dysfunction in order to infiltrate law enforcement agencies. During a teleconference with an unnamed US Border Patrol Investigator, it became evident that as the US BP expands and seeks individuals with Spanish speaking capabilities and cultural knowledge, this creates a perfect opportunity for human smuggling organizations and cartels to engage in deception and exploit vulnerability. The US Border Patrol Investigator also was concerned that as the BP continues to hire a new generation of younger agents, these individuals could possibly have already participated in smuggling operations and are now seeking employment with BP in an attempt to enhance human smuggling operations.

      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. Although the open source internet documents provided the majority of the information in this report, a phone conversation with a human intelligence source (US Border Patrol Investigator) was extremely helpful in reinforcing certain aspects of the data.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kirk M. Shoemaker
      Kirk M. Shoemaker, Project Agincourt
      November, 2009
      Highly Likely That Human Smugglers Utilize Women To Seduce Law Enforcement Officials Along US/Mexican Border
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely that smuggling organizations are utilizing women as a method to seduce and corrupt law enforcement officials and border patrol agents along the US and Mexican border. As corruption within the border patrol continues to accelerate and investigations intensify, federal authorities are finding more relationships, including marriages between agents and suspected Latina women. Smugglers are likely becoming more skilled at identifying and exploiting weak inspectors/agents and as in the case of Richard Elizalda. Elizalda worked cooperatively with his lover, alien smuggler Raquel Arin, allowing potentially hundreds of illegal aliens into the US.
      Discussion:
      As human smuggling organizations and Mexican Cartels involved in human smuggling become more audacious, it is highly likely that they will continue and potentially increase their targeted seduction of US Border Patrol agents and law enforcement officers through the use of women. As corruption continues to escalate, in 2004 and 2005, federal authorities in Arizona alone uncovered numerous relationships, including marriages, between Border Patrol agents and illegally in the United States. This presents a precarious situation for the BP agents since these women are likely to have ties to smuggling operations. James Wong, head of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement's Office of Professional Responsibility in San Diego says, " The smugglers have binoculars and spotters, you name it. They scan the line looking for a weak inspector, someone, for example, who likes to flirt with women. And then they will send a test person, a chatty female. She shows up and says, 'My friend needs to visit a doctor, but she doesn't have papers, can you help?' They will get friendly, and before you know it, they own the employee."
      An Associated Press investigation found U.S. law officers who work the border face criminal corruption charges in numbers not seen before. Greed is the primary factor contributing to this increase however drug and immigrant smugglers are also relying on sex to buy protection and safe passage into the United States. The AP’s investigation found that agents helping smuggle immigrants, drugs or other contraband, were taking wads of money or sexual favors in exchange.
      In a Reuter’s article an agent working on the US/Mexican border validate the seduction ploy and said, " I was offered sex to let a woman across the Rio Grande, but I have a family, I turned her down." Gangs and smuggling organizations are likely using attractive women as bait, setting a " honey trap" to entice officials.
      In an analytical report by Stratfor, analysts Scott Stewart and Fred Burton believe that sex is an age-old espionage recruitment tool that fits under the compromise section of MICE (money, ideology, compromise and ego). Stewart and Burton sees sex as a method to recruit an agent (aka setting a “honey trap”). There are two primary ways that sex is used. The first method is a simple payment for services rendered. The second is as a means to blackmail the agent. In terms of the US/Mexican border, Stratfor finds it common for border officials to face sexual offers in return for allowing illegal aliens or drugs to enter the country. Often drug-trafficking organizations employ attractive agents to seduce and then recruit officers. An example is BP inspection officer Richard Elizalda, charged in March 2007 for conspiring with his lover, alien smuggler Raquel Arin, to let the organization she worked for bring illegal aliens through his inspection lane. Elizalda also accepted cash for his efforts, much of which he allegedly spent on gifts for Arin. Elizalda is only one of several cases that present a new and challenging problem for authorities. It is likely that in Elizalda’s case, the smuggling operation that eventually exploited initially took the time to identify and research his weakness. Past, failed relationships and boredom presented a perfect opportunity for the flirtatious actions of an attractive female to lure the unsuspecting agent.
      The rapid increase in the number of corruption cases, from 79 investigations in the 2007 fiscal year compared with 31 in 2003 indicates that Homeland Security Department main anti-corruption arm, the inspector general’s office, has its hands full. As the Border Patrol seeks to expand its numbers, and is looking to hire more than 11,000 people in 2009. There are openings for 3,000 customs and border patrol officers, 4,600 border patrol agents, 3,000 mission and operations support staff, 350 agriculture specialists, and 300 air and marine officers.
      It is highly likely as the number of individuals working along the Southern border increases there will also be an increase in the amount of corruption and number of corruption cases. Jason Ackleson, an associate professor of government at New Mexico State University, holds that, “if you increase the overall number of law enforcement officers as dramatically as we have” from 9,000 border agents and inspectors prior to 9/11 to a planned 20,000 by the end of 2009, “you increase the possibility of corruption due to the larger number of people exposed to it and tempted by it.”
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is high given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. Open source internet documents as well as intuition and logic provided the majority of the information and analysis found in this report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kirk M. Shoemaker
      Katherine. R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Mexican Drug Cartels Involved in Human Smuggling Likely Utilizing Sophisticated Money Laundering Techniques and Sophisticated Security Technology for Now
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely drug cartels involved in human smuggling are utilizing sophisticated financial laundering procedures to deny law enforcement the ability to track financial transactions. However, due to increased regulation it is likely over the next five years large cartels will revert to unsophisticated methods of money laundering, such as ferrying cash across the border. Due to the nature of human smuggling it is unlikely cartels require migrants to pay in any other method than cash denying law enforcement the ability to follow a virtual money audit trail. Additionally, chances are greater than even large cartels have access to advanced technology to aid in the smuggling process.
      Discussion:
      Unlike small business cartels, Mexican drug cartels likely utilize sophisticated money laundering procedures to launder money from the United States (US) to Mexico. Cartels deny law enforcement the ability to identify the major operators in the network by wiring money to multiple individuals in Mexico that have little or no contact with one another. In 2007 the Arizona attorney general estimated that human smuggling in the state was worth USD 2 billion; of that only USD 17 million was seized from illicit wire transfers. Smugglers also open checking accounts at large banks launder the money then close the account in an attempt to deny law enforcement the ability to shut the organization down.
      While these methods effective, new regulation will likely make wire transfers more difficult in the future. For example, in June 2009 the Arizona State Supreme Court ruled against Western Union allowing the Attorney General to continue seizing wire transfers into Mexico. Prior to the ruling smugglers in Arizona moved money into surrounding states and then transferred it into Mexico. The ruling will end that loophole and allow Arizona to stop wire transfers from 29 other states to human smuggling organizations in 26 money transmitter locations in Sonora, Mexico, within 70 miles of the Arizona border.
      In response to law enforcement’s crack down on wire transfers, smugglers are resorting to older methods of transferring money across the border, such as ferrying bags of money. This type of method will likely be used for small payments, to pay coyotes, or by smaller operators. While some sources indicate large cartels will shift to new technology, such as Visa cards, as a method of payment, it is unlikely due to the nature of smuggling migrants large cartels will use a great deal of that technology.
      As the growth and profits in human smuggling increased so too did the sophistication and involvement of organized criminal networks used to protect smuggling routes and assets. According to a Congressional Research Service report from 2005, the Zetas enforcer gang contains several ex-Mexican military officers trained by US Special Forces in counter-narcotics tactic. Several cartels utilize night vision equipment and encrypted radio during the smuggling process. It is also likely cartels employ radio monitors to monitor border agent frequencies. It is not clear if the gangs are being used explicitly to protect money ferrying, but chances are greater than even gangs are used to protect financial assets.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Katherine R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Mexican Cartels Likely Employing Powerful Street Gangs and Enforcer Gangs to Secure Routes from Other Cartels…Not Law Enforcement
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely Mexican cartels, engaged in both smuggling and drug operations, are employing Mexican street gangs, such as MS-13, and other enforcer gangs along the southern border to secure transportation routes into the United States (US). Due to the increased violence between Mexican cartels it is likely they fear interference from other cartels more than law enforcement, thus the primary goal of enforcers is likely route security for cartels against other cartels in the area. There is likely some use of enforcers to ensure human cargo also stays “in line” during transit, but the priority is likely route security.

      Discussion:
      23241001381125According to the Arizona High Intensity Drug Trafficking Center (HIDTA), Mexican criminal organizations, particularly drug cartels, are gang members into the United States. These individuals typically have extensive criminal records and pose a threat, to law enforcement agencies and national security. It is likely smuggled gang members are used as enforcers for the Cartels once inside the US. For example, according to the Justice Department cartels operate in 230 American Cities, up from 50 in 2006.
      In 2006 the Acting Executive Assistant Director, Law Enforcement Services Federal Bureau of Investigation testified that MS-13 gang members are involved in human smuggling operations along the southern border as well. Primarily, the gang members are used to facilitate transportation of illegal migrants from Latin American countries, through Mexico to the US. The gang members are smuggled into the country than used to provide protection for human smuggling operators and act as a “middleman” for drug cartels between Columbia and La Costra Nostra. The Colombian drug cartels prefer and trust MS-13 over local organizations.
      Mexican street gangs, such as MS-13, are a potential threat to US National Security interests. According to a 2005 report for congress, Department of Homeland Security officials (DHS) feared a link between Al Qaeda and human smugglers. In the report it is alleged that several DHS employees believe terrorist organizations could enter the US through the southern border. Several high profile terrorists have entered the US through the Canadian border, including Ahmed Ressam, however with the growth of Al-Qaeda in South America officials fear the southern border could become a point of entry (POE). Security officials also fear human smuggling networks could be used as a deception method to smuggle a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) into the country. Specifically, officials fear the large number of migrants coming across the border could be used as a distraction for terrorists to smuggle WMDs or personnel. However, aside from the 2008 arrest of a smuggling operation bringing East Africans into the country, there are not substantial links between Al Qaeda and smuggling organizations. According to STRATFOR the ideological differences between MS-13 and al-Qaeda are too great for a long lasting operational alliance to be formed.
      In addition to MS-13 other paramilitary gangs also operate in Mexico, providing security for cartel operations. For Example the Gulf cartel employs Los Zetas, a paramilitary gang whose members include former Mexican Special Forces soldiers. Other cartels also employ enforcers along the border; as a result Mexico experienced a drug war between the cartels.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. Although the open source internet documents provided the majority of the information in this report, a phone conversation with a human intelligence source (US Border Patrol Investigator) was extremely helpful in reinforcing the data.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
      Katherine R Porter, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      It is Highly Likely, Regardless of Nationality, Money Buys More Secure Routes Into the United States
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely human smugglers charge varying fees for their services based on the type of migrant smuggled and the route the migrant wants to take. It is likely secure smuggling routes are the most expensive of all routes, because they involve the use of corrupt officials and have a higher success rate of entry into the United States. Special Interest Aliens, (SIAs) likely use both secure and unsecure routes, however chances are greater than even a terrorist would use a secure route into the US.
      Discussion:
      Figure 1 OTM Apprehensions have continued to go up, however special interest alien apprehension remained roughly the same. Courtesy of: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl33097.pdf22383759525Human Smugglers use a variety of methods to move human cargo from Mexico into the United States. Most smuggling operations fall under the supermarket model; that is sending a large number of migrants with the hope that a majority will make it across and thus be able to pay the smuggling ring. However, there is a small portion of migrants, with the financial resources, that want a secure “guaranteed” route into the US. These individuals pay more to use secure routes; secure routes are routes in which smugglers bribe law enforcement on the.
      There are two different rates for people smuggled into the US, the Mexican rate and the other than Mexican (OTM) rate. Mexican’s typically pay between USD 650 and USD 5,000 depending on the method of smuggling. For example, for a basic coyote to guide a person across the border the fee is minimal; however a migrant can pay up to USD 6,000 if a corrupt border agent is used to guarantee entry into the country. Some migrants are avoiding the border altogether, utilizing boat to ferry from Mexico into Southern California or along the Gulf Coast. It is likely as the border patrol increases its presence along the border, migrants will continue to shift toward water routes as a safer method of smuggling.
      226568057150Figure 2: Special interest apprehensions continue to stay relatively stable, however law enforcement still fears special interest aliens could be using secure methods to avoid law enforcement. Courtesy of: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl33097.pdfIn recent years the number of OTMs increased greatly, with many fearing terrorist groups use Mexico as point of entry into the US. For example, in 1997 law enforcement apprehended only 25,303 OTMs, in 2005 the number jumped to 119,182. However, upon closer examination, the majority of OTMs came from: Honduras, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Non-Mexicans, OTMs, pay a much larger fee for smuggling services in comparison to Mexicans.
      A sub-category of OTM, are special interest aliens, that is those aliens who originate from nations the Intelligence Community (IC) designated as countries that could “export individuals that could bring harm to our country in the way of terrorism.” In 1999 the number of special interest aliens was 736, in 2004 the number was 626, and 530 in 2008. One reason OTM’s and special interest alien’s avoid the southern border is the cost. Smuggling networks exploit them charging between USD 35,000 to USD 50,000 for entry into the US.
      Due to the sheer volume of both Mexican and OTM migrants smuggled across the border, law enforcement still fears special interest aliens with terrorist connection could infiltrate through the border. It is likely a special interest alien using the border would use secure routes involving corrupt officials to guarantee entry, making it more difficult for law enforcement to crackdown and track them.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources corroborated each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. The majority of the information used in this report was obtained via open source methods limiting the available data on individual cases of human smuggling and corrupt officials.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Katherine R. Porter
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      Northern Border
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that human smugglers will continue to use strategic denial and deception methods such as large scale document fraud and disinformation to prevent law enforcement from obtaining mission essential information on the smuggling network and the human cargo being smuggled. It is likely that human smugglers will continue to use Canada’s liberal refugee laws as a deception method against US authorities. Due to the relatively low volume and high value of smuggled individuals that enter the US from Canada, it is likely that smuggling networks will continue to formulate and employ strategic efforts, such as tunnel construction, to deny and deceive law enforcement. Although strategic methods are utilized by smuggling networks across the northern border, they also implement tactical intelligence strategies to evade and mislead law enforcement. For example, smugglers often avoid ports or entry along popular border crossing points, but instead use the cover of darkness, heavily wooded areas and maritime routes that usually go unmonitored by border patrol agents.
      Key Findings Based on the Steps in the Human Smuggling Process
      Recruiting Operations:
      Human smuggling networks do little to deny and deceive law enforcement regarding their recruiting efforts. Canadian based smuggling groups generally focus on smuggling individuals of the same nationality. Asian organized crime groups mainly smuggle individuals of Asian descent.
      Transportation into and throughout Canada:
      Human Smugglers likely utilize a variety of methods to transport potential smuggled cargo into Canada, and then into the US Smugglers are unlikely to change and vary methods and routes based on tactical necessity. It is likely that smugglers are using strategic denial and deception methods such as large scale document fraud or disinformation to hinder law enforcement. It is also likely that human smugglers will continue to use Canada’s liberal refugee laws as a deception method against US authorities.
      It is likely there are two sub-categories of potential human cargo smugglers need to transport through-out the country to the border in preparation for crossing the border:
      Group I: Asian organized crime groups - deceive law enforcement through use of refugee laws and false documents.
      Group II: Canadian citizens who emigrated from other countries - limited deception needed to transport cargo throughout Canada en-route to US/Canadian border.
      Group III: Indian Reservations – reservation laws restrict border patrol agents from effectively controlling human smuggling.
      Transportation From Canada Border Into The US:
      Due to the relatively low volume of smuggled individuals that enter the US from Canada, it is likely that smuggling networks will continue to formulate and employ strategic efforts (such as tunnel construction) to deny and deceive law enforcement. Smuggling organizations based in Canada, are likely employed to secure and protect human, drug, and weapon smuggling routes.
      While strategic efforts to deny and deceive law enforcement officials are used infrequently, smugglers are likely to utilize tactical intelligence methods to evade and mislead law enforcement. For example, smugglers often avoid ports of entry along the border, use cover of darkness, use heavily wooded areas and marine routes not monitored or guarded by border patrol agents.
      It is likely that a connection between drug smugglers and their routes can be seen in human smuggling organizations from Canada into the US.
      Group I: Asian organized crime groups:
      Smugglers likely to use cities with high Asian population centers such as Vancouver, Toronto, Seattle, and New York City to deceive law enforcement. It is also likely that human smugglers will deceive law enforcement through use of Canadian refugee laws and false documents. Therefore, smugglers likely use little strategic denial and deception and rather they focus on tactical, such as avoiding major ports of entry along the border.
      Group II: Canadian citizens who emigrated from other countries:
      Smugglers likely use limited deception needed to transport cargo throughout Canada en-route to US/Canadian border.
      Group III: Indian Reservations:
      It is likely that Indian Reservation laws will continue to restrict border patrol agents from effectively controlling human smuggling. The Awakenase Reservation is a prime example of where tactical denial and deception methods are used. ---LINK TO WIKIIIIII
      Communication and Technology:
      Canadian based smuggling groups have little to no use of sophisticated communication and technology to improve their operations. In the future it is likely that smuggling organizations will improve their means of communication and technology for their operations.
      Distribution of Human Cargo:
      Based upon the simplistic nature delivery, once the smuggled individuals have entered the US, it is unlikely that human smuggling organizations practice any methods aimed at denial and deception.
      Financing and Payment:
      It is likely that human smugglers will continue to use cash upfront as a primary payment method.
      Justin R. Hall, Human Smuggling Denial and Deception
      November, 2009
      Canada Likely to Remain a Transit Location for Smugglers Into the US
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that the recent smuggling of Sri Lankans into Canada is only the beginning of an influx of this type of smuggling. Due to Canada's refugee laws and the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka, Canadian officials expect to see more human smuggling on their borders. The US has experienced trouble stopping smuggling originating in British Colombia in the past, as in 2005 54 individuals were smuggled into Washington State.
      Discussion:
      339090085725The Canadian Security services intercepted and seized a suspicious vessel off British Columbia with 76 people aboard in what could be a case of human smuggling. Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan said “Obviously, they are arriving in a non-conventional fashion so that raises concerns . . . of human smuggling.”
      Ship suspected of involvement in human smuggling.An armed RCMP boarding party took control of the vessel in the Strait of Juan de Fuca between Vancouver Island and Washington State. The men aboard originated from Sri Lanka and likely have ties to the Tamil Tigers.
      The boat's passengers are being processed under the Immigration and Refugee Act. Still, the goal of the RCMP remains the safety of the Canadian people. “The CBSA will work closely with domestic and international partners to combat irregular migration to Canada, including smuggling and trafficking in persons.”
      Canadian authorities believe there may be at least one, but possibly two more ships bound for Canada. It is believed that the Tamil conflict has not ended, just simply moved into other countries. At least one passenger, 26-year-old Kartheepan Manickavasagar, is wanted in Sri Lanka for terrorism, according to an Interpol notice.
      In 2005, British Columbia was used as a transit to smuggle humans into Washington State. The man responsible pleaded guilty on 29 September 2009. The man travelled between Canada and the United States from September 2005 to November 2005. During this time, he would meet the illegal immigrants in Washington State after they had walked across the border from Canada. This smuggling ring brought as many as 54 Pakistani and East Indians into the United States.
      As the Mexican border remains the priority for the US government, we will need to rely on Canada for its ability to stop human smuggling at their borders. Once in Canada, smugglers find it relatively easy to bring humans across the unprotected US border. Many of the individuals on the seized ship were likely headed to the US.

      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was moderate due to ongoing nature of the refugee claims and investigation.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Justin Hall
      Justin R. Hall, Human Smuggling Denial and Deception
      November, 2009
      The Akwesasne Reservation Will Likely Remain a Smuggling Area on the Canadian Border
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that the Akwesasne Reservation will continue to be a main human and drug smuggling area of concern for the United States. This is due the ease at which deception techniques such as the use of darkness and tree cover can be used along the reservation area.
      Discussion:
      As American immigration authorities are preoccupied by the nearly one million illegals crossing the Mexican border each year, Akwesasne is not a top priority. The Immigration and Naturalization Service in Washington believe that as long as the illegal Chinese migrants seek a future in New York, more will come through Akwesasne.
      Many Asian smugglers choose to use Canada to smuggle people into the US because of their loose refugee laws. Canada's treatment of refugees stems from the 1951 United Nations' convention, a document that sought to shelter people suffering from political persecution. In recent years, criminals have begun using this document to fit their needs.
      The journey to Akwesasne often begins in China's Fujian province, which sits directly across from Taiwan. Once in Akwesasne, human smugglers find it easy to transport individuals across the border. This results from porously guarded borders, where a maze of roads leads out of both the Quebec and U.S. sides of the reserve and the only markers to indicate the border are a few concrete pillars. Using these areas known to be difficult to protect or altogether unguarded, especially at night, is a form of deception used by the smugglers.
      Along with human smuggling, Akwesasne is also among the National Drug Intelligence Center’s most highly structured drug trafficking organizations (DTO’s) in the New York region. The primary illicit drugs abused by Native Americans on reservations in the New York/New Jersey are crack cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and diverted pharmaceuticals.
      Asian DTO’s smuggle high-potency Canadian marijuana and other drugs into the United States through reservations along the U.S.-Canada border. The drugs are initially transported to the areas in Canada near the border, where Native American criminal groups retrieve the drugs and transport them to the U.S. side of the reservation.
      The drugs are generally transported off the reservation by Native American couriers, destined for major drug markets in the eastern half of the United States. The connection between drug trafficking and human smuggling is not entirely known, however, as the Akwesasne reservation is being utilized for both, it is likely that the same criminal organizations are involved in both.

      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the changing smuggling routes that allow human smugglers to continuously evade law enforcement strategies.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Justin Hall
      Justin R. Hall, Human Smuggling Denial and Deception
      November, 2009
      Human Smuggling Routes Likely Connected to Drug Smuggling Routes
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that human smugglers are using the same routes, mainly Indian Reservations, as those used by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) along the Canadian Border. This is due to the ease at which these areas are accessible to human smugglers and inaccessible to law enforcement.
      Discussion:
      In the Pacific United States, which includes Washington, Idaho, and Oregon, drugs have become a major concern for law enforcement, especially on Indian Reservations. As seen on the Akwesasne Reservation in New York, drug trafficking and human smuggling activities are often the same.
      Mexican DTOs actively engage in drug trafficking on reservations throughout the Pacific Region. Mexican DTOs are active on reservations throughout the region and engage in activities ranging from drug manufacturing and distribution to operating stash sites. Mexican DTOs operating on reservations in the region primarily distribute methamphetamine and produce and distribute marijuana.
      A number of trafficking groups, other than Mexican DTOs, operate on reservations within the region; some simultaneously operate on several reservations. Caucasian and Native American criminal groups and street gangs distribute retail-level quantities of assorted illicit drugs on various reservations throughout the region.
      Most gangs operating on reservations in the region are local gangs composed of young people from the reservations who emulate national-level gangs. Some of the local gangs reportedly operating in the region are Indian Power, Mean Violent Natives Organization, Native Gangster Bloods, New HUD Family Gang, and West Side Crip Villains. Additionally, nationally recognized gangs such as 18th Street, MS 13, Norteños, and Sureños have been identified on some reservations in the region.
      Traffickers exploit reservations in the region that are near the U.S.-Canada border to smuggle drugs from Canada into the United States. Canada-based DTOs, mostly Asian, transport high-potency Canadian marijuana and MDMA from Canada into the United States through reservations along the U.S.-Canada border. Most of the drugs are intended for distribution in drug markets throughout the Pacific Region, but some are provided to local distributors for distribution in Native American communities.
      In the Great Lakes Region, which includes Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, illicit drug trafficking on reservations by Mexican and Native American DTOs has decreased in the region since 2006. Over the past several years, Mexican and Native American DTOs transported and distributed most illicit drugs on reservations in the Great Lakes Region. However, recent law enforcement operations have curtailed the activity of such traffickers. Because of this, there does not seem to be a major connection between drugs and human smuggling in the Great Lakes Region.
      Using these known drug smuggling routes for human smuggling is likely a form of deception used against law enforcement. Drug smuggling over the Canadian border, like human smuggling, has not been given much attention by the US government. Because of the lack of anti-smuggling operations, it remains relatively easy for smugglers using these routes.Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the changing smuggling routes that allow human smugglers to continuously evade law enforcement strategies.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Justin Hall
      Justin R. Hall, Human Smuggling Denial and Deception
      November, 2009
      Canada’s Refugee Laws Likely Impact Human Smuggling into the US
      Executive Summary:
      It is unlikely that the Canadian government will make any major changes to its refugee laws in the next five years, leaving the US border at risk for human smuggling. This is due to Canada's long history of being a country of compassion, willing to give refugee status to almost anyone who shows up on their land.
      Discussion:
      With the seizure of a suspected human smuggling ship off the coast of British Colombia, the refugee laws of Canada have become an important topic of discussion. Refugee claimants are people who enter Canada, whether by boat, airplane or on foot, and declare themselves to be refugees. They must make their claims to the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) in order to stay in Canada. These people are able to apply for welfare or seek work but are not considered permanent residents.
      According to the UN 1951 Geneva Convention, a refugee is someone who has a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group. In Canada, new immigration rules approved in June 2002 state that a refugee is also someone who, if returned home, faces: a risk of torture as defined in the Convention Against Torture, cruel and unusual treatment/punishment or a risk to his/her life.
      The problem for Canada is that they view themselves as a nation dedicated to compassion, tolerance and justice than a ship full of desperate migrants asking for asylum. Yet, if Canada accepts the Tamil refugees, they risk allowing in known terrorist and may be viewed as welcoming to any other Tamil Tigers who wish to come to Canada. If they decide to reject the refugees, they may be repeating one of the darkest moments in Canadian history, where they rejected refugee status to Jews during the holocaust.
      With the collapse of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, Canada will likely see a surge of refugees from the area. According to Tom Quiggin, an Ottawa terrorism expert, the Tamil Tigers “will no doubt be looking to move many of its senior leaders and fighters into well-known safe havens such as Canada.”
      As the US northern border remains unguarded and relatively easy to cross, we may become dependent on Canada’s ability to refuse refugee status to members of groups such as the Tamil Tigers. Entering Canada under their refugee laws is one denial and deception technique being used by human smugglers to bring individuals into the US.

      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the nature of a connection between human smuggling and Canada's refugee laws.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Justin Hall
      Justin R. Hall, Human Smuggling Denial and Deception
      November, 2009
      Human Smuggling Groups Within Canada
      Executive Summary:
      It is likely that the most prominent groups involved in human smuggling in Canada will remain the same in the next 5 years. This is because of the amount of money able to be made by Asian Organized Crime Groups (AOC), as well as individuals looking to make extra cash. The connections of AOC groups makes it easy for them to smuggle individuals into Canada, and then into the US.
      Discussion:
      The most prominent human smuggling groups who use Canada as a means to smuggle into the US are Asian Organized Crime (AOC) groups. AOC includes Chinese groups like triads; loose criminal affiliations; migrant smuggling organizations; Vietnamese street gangs; Korean groups; and to a lesser extent, the Japanese Boryokudan or Yakuza.
      In Canada, AOC groups are active within traditional Asian population centers in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. There is also evidence of AOC migrant smuggling and drug trafficking activity in smaller population centers, such as the predominantly rural Atlantic Region. In the United States, AOC is active throughout the country, from major metropolitan areas and their suburbs to isolated rural communities.
      Established Chinese criminal infrastructures facilitate the smuggling of large numbers of Chinese migrants into North America. Organized crime groups based in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) orchestrate mass illegal Chinese migrant smuggling operations, often in cooperation with one another. These global criminal networks are believed to engage in a variety of subsidiary criminal offenses, including visa fraud to support their primary profit-making activity.
      Aside from AOC groups, small groups or individuals also contribute to human smuggling through Canada to the US. In 2007, police broke up two major human smuggling rings that allegedly snuck hundreds of illegal aliens into the United States from Canada. The rings, operating out of Toronto and Montreal since 2004, allegedly drove foreigners to the American border and guided them across on foot, avoiding roads and border crossings. The aliens, who came to Canada from Korea, Pakistan, India and Central America, allegedly paid $10,000 per person for the service.
      The Montreal ring operated with five individuals, while the Toronto group was made up of six. According to federal prosecutors, the rings were considered among the largest ever to operate in the northeastern United States. Although the rings were not involved in the smuggling of terrorists, the potential certainly had existed. The potential smuggling of terrorists across the border remains a priority for US border security.
      In 2005, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) carried out Operation Gilded Cage. This was a nine month investigation of sex trafficking, harboring of illegal aliens, conspiracy to transport female Korean nationals across state lines with intent to engage in prostitution, and money laundering. A criminal gang known as the Jung Organization was the target of the investigation. They were using massage parlors as fronts for prostitution.The organization was smuggling South Korean women into the US through Canada. Once inside the US, the women were then trafficked to cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco with the intent of forced prostitution.
      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the lack of information regarding human smuggling groups in Canada.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Justin Hall
      Frank Caprezza, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Smugglers Avoiding Major Points of Entry Along Border Likely to Continue
      Executive Summary:It is likely that human smugglers will continue avoiding major border checkpoints into the United States. The border between Canada and the United States is far too long to guard and there is a primary emphasis on the Southern border into Mexico, which diverts most of the Border Patrols resources. As a result, smuggling networks have a natural strategic incentive to use the northern border to smuggle individuals into the US. Additionally, human smugglers will likely continue to deceive law enforcement through the use of tunnels, walking across wooded areas along the border and use boats across the maritime routes. Discussion:Tunnels are primarily used for smuggling drugs or guns across the border undetected. But there are incidents of humans smuggled as well. Before 2006 it was not illegal to dig a tunnel from Canada into the United States. This changed in October 2006 after the Border Tunnels Prevention Act was signed into federal law. However, smugglers continue to dig or use tunnels already constructed along the border. For years in Detroit a human smuggling group used two railroad tunnels that run under the Detroit and Saint Clair Rivers in Ontario and smuggled illegal migrants into the US in groups of two to twenty-five. In 2005 investigators from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police discovered a tunnel dug eight feet beneath the ground and stretching more than 330 feet. It ran from a large garden hut on the Canadian side under the road and ditch that divides the US and Canada into the basement of a house on the US side. This tunnel in particular may have been used to smuggle people across the border. Since there are many areas along the border that are heavily wooded and not guarded, smugglers locate these locations for drop off and pickup spots. In November 2007 law enforcement agencies broke up two human smuggling rings. The organizations had been operating out of Toronto and Montreal since 2004. The smugglers allegedly drove foreigners to the border and guided them across on foot, avoiding roads and border crossings. Once on the US side transportation would be waiting to take them to their next destination. In April 2006 a smuggling ring was shut down that is responsible for smuggling dozens of Indian and Pakistani immigrants from Canada into the United States. Some of the fifty illegal immigrants were captured on film by infrared cameras as they crossed the border on foot in a remote, undisclosed area of the US-Canada border. People in the photos were seen waiting by the side of a road before being picked up by a vehicle.
      Water routes are often used by smugglers to elude law enforcement on both sides of the border. However, most are not caught in the process so there is little to no coverage about them. In February 2009 an investigation by Immigration and Customs Enforcement involved the smuggling of a 23 year old Albanian man and his mother from Windsor, Ontario into Detroit via Jet Ski by crossing the Detroit River. The plan went wrong when the Jet Ski capsized and both fell into the river.
      Smuggling organizations use of avoiding detection while crossing the border will continue unless law enforcement from both the United States and Canada strengthen security along the border. However, this idea is considered costly and not a main priority due to the low level of activity.
      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the varying degrees that human smugglers use to smuggle people across the border and evade law enforcement. For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Frank Caprezza
      Frank Caprezza, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Human Smugglers Unlikely Increase In Use of Clandestine Methods
      Executive Summary:It is unlikely that human smugglers will increase the use of clandestine methods to move human cargo into the United States at border crossings. Due to multiple areas to enter the US undetected via Canada, few smugglers will attempt to hide individuals from Border Patrol agents while attempting to cross at a checkpoint. The odds of being caught at a checkpoint are much higher than in a remote wooded area, or waterway. Discussion:There are few example of human smuggler attempts of deceiving Border Patrol agents at checkpoints by hiding people various ways while cross the border. Most are caught due to the well trained agents or scanning technology at points of entry. During some crossings illegal immigrants hang on the sides of freight trains, on ferries, in car trunks or in the cargo trailers of semi-trucks. However, a small number of illegal immigrants have been apprehended attempting to enter the US from Canada between ports of entry over the past few years. At some ports of entry law enforcement discovered individuals hidden in transport trucks attempting to enter the US.
      In Buffalo, NY there have only been several cases of human smugglers using clandestine methods to move human cargo at the Peace Bridge crossing. One of those cases took place on 29 March 2006, Customs and Border Protection Officers apprehended two Guyanese nationals as they attempted to enter the United States illegally as stowaways aboard an inbound commercial truck. CBP Officers used gamma-imaging technology and discovered the two individuals hiding in a container of Styrofoam trays.In February 2006 law enforcement broke up a human smuggling ring that smuggled more than 100 illegal immigrants from several countries across the Canada-US border. The smugglers used clandestine methods such as hiding people in trunks of cars, putting them on railway cars, in the backs of transport trucks and using small boats for transport.Human smugglers will continue to avoid major border crossings due to the increased security. Chances of getting cargo across at many ports of entry are low due to the technology and number of officers stationed. Smugglers will continue to use heavily wooded areas, marine routes and avoid major ports of entry.
      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the varying degrees that human smugglers use to smuggle people across the border and evade law enforcement.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Frank Caprezza
      Frank Caprezza, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Increase In Security Technology Along Border Will Likely Deter Smuggling
      Executive Summary:It is likely that an increase in security along the border in the form of technology will decrease the level of human smuggling into the US and protect against terrorists from entering in the future. The length and lack of man power along the US-Canada border make it extremely difficult to effectively defend. Electronic surveillance systems, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and infrared seismic sensors will effectively makeup for the lack of man power along the border. Discussion:Most of the terrain in areas of the US-Canada border is unforgiving, and considering its length, it would be virtually impossible to build a wall or fence to keep immigrants from crossing illegally. In addition, with a primary focus on the Southern border there is a lack of manpower. The most viable way to guard the Northern border is with technology.
      Along the 3,995 miles of border, eight Border Patrol sectors protect against the illegal crossing of people and contraband. Between ports of entry on the US-Canada border, Customs and Border Patrol process more than 70 million international travelers and 35 million vehicles, makes approximately 4,000 arrests, and seizes approximately 40,000 pounds of illegal drugs yearly.Over the last few years, the Department of Homeland Security has been installing a combination of infrared seismic sensors in the ground, and video surveillance systems in rugged isolated areas along the border. The US Border Patrol is constructing 16 additional video surveillance towers in Michigan and New York to help secure parts of the border. Eleven of the towers are being installed in Detroit and five in Buffalo, to help monitor water traffic between Canada and the United States.Aircraft both manned and unmanned are also being expanded in use along the border. Blackhawk helicopters and interceptor jets patrol airspace along the US-Canada border, and the Unmanned Aircraft Operations Center in North Dakota will bring enhanced security operations to the border. The Custom and Border Patrols UAV is capable of flying at speeds of up to 260 miles per hour for more than 18 hours at altitudes up to 50,000 feet. The UAV is equipped with an infrared security camera that looks forward 24 kilometers. Tunnels from Canada into the US have been widely used by smugglers for years. To counter the tunnel issue, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) is developing a solution for the future. In partnership with Lockheed Martin, DHS S&T is pursuing a new approach that uses sophisticated ground penetrating radar. The Tunnel Detection Project is part of the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency, a distinct office within S&T set up to think out-of-the-box. If successful, the tunnel detection technology will help agents locate and plug tunnels almost as fast as the criminals can dig them. While most tunnels are used to move drugs or people, they could also be used to move in weapons and explosives for a terrorist attack. Tunnels are a serious challenge for border patrol agents because they can begin and end almost anywhere; their entrances and exits are often hidden inside old warehouses or under trees; if old ones are discovered, new ones are quickly begun. Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the extent at which the level of technology being deployed along the border will likely be insufficient.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Frank Caprezza
      Frank Caprezza, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Terrorists Likely To Use Canada To Enter The US
      Executive Summary:It is likely that terrorists have used and will use in the future the Canadian border to infiltrate the United States. Due to Canada’s extremely liberal immigration laws, individuals from terrorist sponsoring countries are more likely to attempt entry into the US via Canada than anywhere else. Discussion:Today the primary concern for Border Patrol is still the Southern border. Currently about 17,399 Border Patrol agents are deployed on the Mexican border, compared to about 1,798 along the Canadian border. The northern border extends almost 2,000 miles longer than the southern and has far fewer agents deployed despite the fact that terrorists have been apprehended attempting to cross via northern points of entry into the US.
      In 2007 the US government sent agents acting as terrorists carrying fake radioactive materials from Canada into the US. After the agents crossed the 4,000-mile border four times carrying a large, red duffel bag without being intercepted, it was determined that terrorists would likely be able to bring radioactive materials or other contraband undetected into the United States by crossing the US-Canada border.Organizations and individuals that have been apprehended in the past few years by law enforcement claimed to have no ties to smuggling terrorists into the US However; it is likely of the thousands that have already been smuggled that there have been a few terrorist cells or sympathizers that have entered the US via Canada.
      Border patrol agents protecting the border between the United States and Canada are increasingly concerned that Islamic activists may pay sophisticated organized crime gangs to transport terrorists and weapons across into the US. According to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, many terrorist organizations have possibly set up roots in Cana
      da. These groups include Hamas, Hezbollah, and other radical Islamist groups from Iran and Algeria. Also, in 2006 according to a senior FBI official Canada is the most worrisome terrorist point of entry and al-Qaida training manuals advise terrorists to enter the United States from Canada.
      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the low number of terrorists apprehended while crossing into the US from Canada.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Frank Caprezza,
      Frank Caprezza, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Smugglers Avoiding Major Points of Entry Along Border Likely to Continue
      Executive Summary:It is likely that human smugglers will continue avoiding major border checkpoints into the United States. The border between Canada and the United States is far too long to guard and there is a primary emphasis on the Southern border into Mexico, which diverts most of the Border Patrols resources. As a result, smuggling networks have a natural strategic incentive to use the northern border to smuggle individuals into the US. Additionally, human smugglers will likely continue to deceive law enforcement through the use of tunnels, walking across wooded areas along the border and use boats across the maritime routes. Discussion:Tunnels are primarily used for smuggling drugs or guns across the border undetected. But there are incidents of humans smuggled as well. Before 2006 it was not illegal to dig a tunnel from Canada into the United States. This changed in October 2006 after the Border Tunnels Prevention Act was signed into federal law. However, smugglers continue to dig or use tunnels already constructed along the border. For years in Detroit a human smuggling group used two railroad tunnels that run under the Detroit and Saint Clair Rivers in Ontario and smuggled illegal migrants into the US in groups of two to twenty-five. In 2005 investigators from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police discovered a tunnel dug eight feet beneath the ground and stretching more than 330 feet. It ran from a large garden hut on the Canadian side under the road and ditch that divides the US and Canada into the basement of a house on the US side. This tunnel in particular may have been used to smuggle people across the border. Since there are many areas along the border that are heavily wooded and not guarded, smugglers locate these locations for drop off and pickup spots. In November 2007 law enforcement agencies broke up two human smuggling rings. The organizations had been operating out of Toronto and Montreal since 2004. The smugglers allegedly drove foreigners to the border and guided them across on foot, avoiding roads and border crossings. Once on the US side transportation would be waiting to take them to their next destination. In April 2006 a smuggling ring was shut down that is responsible for smuggling dozens of Indian and Pakistani immigrants from Canada into the United States. Some of the fifty illegal immigrants were captured on film by infrared cameras as they crossed the border on foot in a remote, undisclosed area of the US-Canada border. People in the photos were seen waiting by the side of a road before being picked up by a vehicle.
      Water routes are often used by smugglers to elude law enforcement on both sides of the border. However, most are not caught in the process so there is little to no coverage about them. In February 2009 an investigation by Immigration and Customs Enforcement involved the smuggling of a 23 year old Albanian man and his mother from Windsor, Ontario into Detroit via Jet Ski by crossing the Detroit River. The plan went wrong when the Jet Ski capsized and both fell into the river.
      Smuggling organizations use of avoiding detection while crossing the border will continue unless law enforcement from both the United States and Canada strengthen security along the border. However, this idea is considered costly and not a main priority due to the low level of activity.
      Analytic Confidence:Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other's findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the varying degrees that human smugglers use to smuggle people across the border and evade law enforcement. For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Frank Caprezza
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      centercenter
      Atlantic and Pacific Borders
      Executive Summary:
      There is likely human smugglers bringing human cargo into the US via the Atlantic and Pacific oceans use limited strategic denial and deception methods to avoid and evade law enforcement. Unlike in the past, Asian smuggling networks are becoming decentralized familial networks who operate in limited numbers in efforts to bring siblings, relatives, and even close friends across the border into the US. Human smugglers in these regions generally recruit others by word of mouth and are able to constantly evade law enforcement efforts through the support of the community who take it upon themselves to protect those who smuggle individuals out of the country. Additionally, it is likely Asian smuggling networks are moving human cargo into either Canada or Mexico, then transporting the illegal immigrants into the US. For example, from 2002-2005 apprehensions of Chinese migrants along the southern border increased over 125 percent. For areas such as the Caribbean region, minimal strategic efforts are implemented to deny and deceive law enforcement officials, rather smugglers typically employ similar tactics as southern borders smugglers. It is unlikely that sophisticated modes of communication or technology are being implemented by smuggling networks in either of the Caribbean or Asian-Pacific region due to most of the communication taking place in person and no need for the use of advanced technology. Although it is unlikely that human smuggling networks practice any methods of denial and deception once individuals have crossed the border, there are likely possibilities that unassuming individuals are forced into human trafficking once they have entered the US.
      Key Findings Based on the Steps in the Human Smuggling Process
      Recruiting Operations:
      It is likely smuggling networks do very little to deny and deceive law enforcement regarding their recruiting efforts. Human smugglers traditionally recruit via word of mouth and reputation. It is highly likely citizens within the Caribbean region as well as within the Asian-Pacific regions are well aware of the contacts, methods utilized and requirements necessary to be smuggled into the US. Due to this, such citizens will do little to report human smuggling networks to law enforcement officials.
      Transportation from Country of Origin into the US:
      Due to the continuous flow of smuggled individuals that enter the US from the Caribbean region, it is likely that human smuggling networks utilize minimal strategic efforts to deny and deceive law enforcement.
      However, it is highly likely the volume of smuggled persons that enter the US from the Asian-Pacific regions utilize strategic efforts to constantly deny and deceive law enforcement efforts.
      Caribbean Region
      Human smugglers mainly focus on obtaining small coastal freighters, sailboats, makeshift rafts, small pleasure cruisers, or flotation devices that are then filled with refugees that continuously exceed the maximum capacity allowed.
      Asian-Pacific Regions
      Human smugglers chiefly utilize opportunities provided by corruption and loopholes in immigration laws of various countries. By using lengthy and circuitous routes by land, air, and sea they bring immigrants to Latin America or Canada were they can be smuggled over land to the US via subcontracted organizations. Use of container ships and boats directly into the US is minimal particularly in comparison to the 1980’s and 1990’s.
      Although there is a variation between the amount of strategic efforts employed by smuggling networks originating in the Caribbean region compared to that of the Asian-Pacific, it is highly likely both regions utilize tactical intelligence methods to evade and misdirect law enforcement efforts.
      Communication and Technology:
      It is unlikely that sophisticated modes of communication or technology are being implemented by smuggling networks in either of the Caribbean or Asian-Pacific regions. Rather, smugglers focus on tactical and ad hoc denial and deception methods to evade law enforcement. There are likely attempts to conceal communications and deny law enforcement access to mission essential information through the use of unsophisticated technology, such as face to face communication.
      Distribution of Human Cargo:
      Based upon the simplistic nature of the smuggled individual’s entry into the US, it is unlikely that human smuggling networks practice any methods of denial and deception. However, there are likely possibilities that unassuming individuals are forced into human trafficking once they have entered the US.
      Financing and Payment:
      Due to the decentralized nature of the smuggling networks operating out of the Caribbean and Asian-Pacific regions, the most common means of financing and payments take place in person. While this method is less likely to be secure for the smuggling networks, it allows the smugglers to deny law enforcement any access to monetary transfers that have taken place.
      Kyle J. Doyle Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      Trans-Oceanic Human Smuggling Directly Into The US Likely To Continue To Decline As Alternative Routes Become More Attractive
      Executive Summary:
      Incidences of human smuggling by boat directly into the United States (US) are in dramatic decline from the levels seen in the 1980’s and 1990’s; a trend that is likely to continue over the next five years. Several key changes in US policy have contributed to this decline; increased patrols by the US Coast Guard (USCG), stricter sentences for human smugglers, the detention of undocumented asylum applicants pending the resolution of their claims, and increased security of cargo containers from overseas. Human smuggling organizations operating overseas have adapted to these changes. It is likely that the majority of people smuggled from overseas are smuggled over land via Canada and Latin America. The organizations themselves are extremely decentralized. Presently human smuggling from overseas, particularly from Asia, is done through ad hoc networks based around family and friends as well as convenience and opportunity.
      Discussion:
      Incidences of human smuggling by boat into the US are in dramatic decline from the levels seen in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Several policy changes have contributed to this trend, primarily; increased patrols by the USCG, stricter sentences for human smugglers, and the detention of undocumented asylum applicants pending the resolution of their claims. Before these policy changes, numerous immigrants would routinely enter the US by boat as this method, although dangerous to the immigrants, often succeeded and in the case of apprehension immigrants were not detained during the resolution of their asylum applications during which they would ‘disappear’.
      The 1993 incident involving the Golden Venture, a ship carrying nearly three hundred illegal Chinese immigrants, which was run aground in New York City exemplifies the trans-oceanic smuggling of the previous decades. This method was lucrative and successful, yet dangerous for both the smugglers and the smuggled. Several aboard the Golden Venture perished and the organization responsible for its journey has since been broken up by the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI). US policy changes have made human smuggling from overseas a much less centralized business compared to the time of the Golden Venture.
      In 2006 the Pew Research Center found that 13% of the total illegal immigrant population originated from Asia, the highest group outside of Mexico and Latin America. In total only 22% of the illegal immigrant population originates from overseas, outside of Mexico and Latin America. It is important to note the small scale off human smuggling from overseas in comparison to Mexico and Latin America. It appears that the Asian method of smuggling from overseas is mostly indicative of most other human smuggling operations from overseas.
      Contrary to popular misconception overseas human smuggling to the US, from Asia in particular, is no longer monopolized and centralized by organized crime networks. Today Asian human smugglers, also known as ‘snakeheads’, operate in ad hoc networks of extremely well-connected individuals often only working together for very brief periods of time to take advantage of specific opportunities. Patrick Keefe, an academic specializing in the study of Chinese immigration and human smuggling networks states, “from the earliest days. . .snakeheads have exploited a dizzyingly ingenious array of routes to ferry their passengers abroad.”
      The tactics used by are wide ranging; however, they typically involve long circuitous routes by any combination of land, sea, and air travel as well as false documents, sub-contracted organizations, and corruption. As travel by sea directly into the US has become more difficult over time these organizations have quickly adapted. It appears that the most common trend is for smugglers to move their cargo into Canada or Latin America at which point they subcontract with local ‘coyotes’ to move the cargo across the border by land into the US.
      The price to be smuggled into the US from overseas is currently around USD 75,000 which is due in full before the customer leaves. This is further indicative of the difficulties using trans-oceanic routes directly into the US. The journey now requires any number of flights, bribes, false documents, and payment to other organizations to move across the US border by land.
      More recently a review by the Department of Homeland (DHS) Security Office of Inspector General highlighted efforts by DHS Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) and USCG to curtail trans-oceanic human smuggling through major ports and container ships. The document notes that since April 1998 there have only been 23 known incidence of human smuggling via maritime cargo containers. DHS secures US ports through two primary means the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) and the Container Security Initiative (CSI). These programs in conjunction with increases USCG activity and changes to asylum application law have likely greatly diminished maritime human smuggling efforts directly into the US.
      C-TPAT is the outermost layer of security from shipments entering US ports. This program imbeds security measures in foreign supply chains through partnerships with thousands of importers, carriers, terminals, brokers, and manufactures. In exchange for partnership and cooperation private businesses receive the benefit of reduced targeting scores which reduces the chance that containers will have to be searched and therefore delayed.
      CSI targets US-bound cargo for screening at the foreign port of lading. The primary objectives of the program are to identify high-risk containers, prescreen containers, and minimize physical examination through the use of technology. Bilateral agreements between the US and foreign governments to host CBP and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials make this program possible. An automated targeting system determines which containers pose the highest risk for illegal activity, this stage is the first chance the container has a chance to be searched. Containers can also be searched once they reach the US.
      These security measures highlight several changes that have taken place since the 1980’s and 1990’s and even more so since 9/11 which have made entry into the US via the sea or other traditional methods less attractive in comparison to land crossing through Canada or Mexico.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimate statements in this report is medium given the quality of the sources and the extent to which they corroborated with each other. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was moderate and the complexity of the requirement was also moderate. It is difficult to predict trends with these loose organizations because they are very fluid and can change tactics based on opportunity nearly instantaneously. Open source documents from the Internet provided all of the information used to form this analytic report.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kyle Doyle
      Kathleen Rhodes, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      26 Haitians were rescued from an overloaded boat carrying an unknown amount of illegal immigrants attempting to enter the United States. Image courtesy of http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/05/13/florida.boat.deaths/index.htmlright3057525Caribbean Maritime Migration Likely to Continue into Southern United States
      Executive Summary:It is highly likely that maritime migration will continue from the surrounding Caribbean basin into the Southern regions of the United States. As economic and political conditions continue to worsen for the Caribbean regions, it is likely the number of attempts to enter the US will continue to increase. The unpredictable factors that occur when travelling by sea present various challenges to both migrants and law enforcement, while the advancement of maritime technology and the proliferation of small commercial traffic has led to an increase in law enforcement surveillance as well as the creation of new smuggling routes into the United States.Discussion:Driven by a desperate attempt to find opportunity within the United States, migrants often leave their country of origin by any means necessary. Maritime migration can be generalized into two forms; humanitarian and migrant. Humanitarian migration is largely unorganized and lacks an organized smuggling component. It mainly centers around the use of " Rustica" , or small coastal freighters, sailboats or makeshift rafts, filled with refugees that continuously exceed the maximum capacity allowed. Most of the Rusticas have very primitive forms of propulsion, and are materially ill-equipped for the elements of the open sea. Migrant smuggling is the complete opposite of humanitarian smuggling. These networks are well organized and use sophisticated navigation technology and have an increasing availability of large " go-fast" speed boats that can be modified to carry large amounts of fuel and people (and also includes the possibility of holding large amounts of drugs as well). Migrant smuggling organizations also operate with considerable financial support from either political organizations who view the smugglers as " liberators" or through links to organized crime, unlike humanitarian migration which works with very limited funds, if any. The use of humanitarian and migrant smuggling vary depending on the region the smuggling originates from, leading to the difficulty in creating a uniform set of laws to counter the continuous attempts of the smuggling organizations to enter the US.The mass migrations from the Caribbean region have been motivated by significant political events or dissatisfaction with the standard of living. Almost every attempt to enter the US has been by maritime conveyance that were dangerous and largely unorganized. Haiti remains one of the most consistent sources of maritime migrants attempting to enter the US in the Caribbean. Most of the Haitian smuggling is humanitarian in nature and mainly uses boats which are vastly overloaded in order to smuggle as many humans as possible into the US.On 13 May 2009, a small pleasure cruiser headed to the US from Haiti carrying at least 26 migrants capsized, killing at least 10 individuals. During the week of 21 January 2009, two men in Miami, Florida plead guilty to human smuggling charges when they were caught operating two separate vessels with intentions of picking up and transporting Haitian nationals. Recently, Cubans have been employing sophisticated smuggling networks to run migrants into the US directly via the Florida straits using high speed, high-tech " go fast" speed boats. They have also been known to use indirect routes, such as bypassing Florida and entering Mexico to reach the Southwest border or entering into the Dominican Republic in order to cross to Puerto Rico. Thousands of Haitians take to the sea on flimsy boats each year, heading toward the United States or other Caribbean countries hoping to escape grinding poverty in the Western Hemisphere's poorest country.
      For law enforcement, deterring smugglers is difficult due to the smuggler's capability to find means around deterrent actions in order to continue gaining profit from the lucrative business. Forward interdiction and overt patrol are noticeably effective against smuggling routes; however, the increase in law enforcement involvement has driven smugglers to find different routes or venues to operate out of. When law enforcement shows strength in one area against human smuggling organizations, humanitarian and migrant networks continuously seek other paths in efforts to " stay a step ahead" of the law.The continuous attempts of maritime migrants to enter the US has become a threat to law enforcement activity as well as to humanitarian efforts to saving the lives of those who decide to travel under such dangerous conditions. The maritime migrations that occur are inevitable from Haiti, Cuba and other Caribbean nations and require constant surveillance and analysis in order to sufficiently account for the continuously evolving tactics employed by the smuggling organizations.Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other’s findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the changing smuggling routes that continuously evade law enforcement strategies.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kathleen Rhodes
      Kathleen Rhodes, Project AgincourtNovember, 2009
      25241253086100Economic Recession Likely to Slow Illegal Immigrant Crossings?
      Executive Summary: It is likely that the statistics of those being smuggled into the United States will remain near the same levels as those in the recent past, with noticeable decreases over the next five years. The main reasons for human smuggling into the United States has been deeply rooted in economic opportunity, mainly focusing on sex and labor trafficking. However, there is a small percentage that is not accounted for, which leaves room for the possibility of individuals to enter the United States for either personal reasons or speculated terrorist connections.Discussion:According to the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000-2008, human trafficking has occurred if a person was induced to perform labor or a commercial sex act through force, fraud, or coercion. While the Trafficking of Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2005 requires biennial reporting on human trafficking, the Department of Justice, alongside the Institute of Race and Justice at Northeastern University and the Justice Policy Center at the Urban Institute, created the Human Trafficking Reporting System (HTRS). The most recent HTRS provides data on human trafficking incidents investigated between 1 January 2007 and 30 September 2008. (Many task forces began collecting data only recently, so some of the data provided are only partial counts of human trafficking cases that occurred within the specified period of time.)
      Graph portraying the amounts, in percentages, of how many people are smuggled or trafficked into the United States between 2007 to 2008. Image courtesy of http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cshti08.pdfAs of 30 September 2008, there were a total of 1,229 reported human trafficking incidents. Of those 1,229 cases, there were 1,164 (95%) cases which involved economic motivation, while 65 incidents (5%) were related to unknown types of human smuggling. The economic motivations for human smuggling is focused on sex trafficking and labor trafficking. Sex trafficking can be broken down into three categories:
      Forced Prostitution
      Accounts for 596 incidents
      Child Sex Trafficking
      Accounts for 391 cases
      Other Sex Trafficking
      Accounts for 31 occurrences
      Labor trafficking, mostly comprised of migrant workers, can account for 146 incidents of the total 1,164 that have occurred. Due to the limited economic opportunity that has presented itself over the past year, human smuggling into the United States has begun to level off, if not decrease. The number of new illegal immigrants arriving has fallen by about one-third in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade due to the economic recession. Although migration patterns have changed, it must be remembered that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have not left the country, and tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants continue to settle in the country each year. Although sex and labor trafficking provide a lucrative portion to the business of human smuggling, the decline in employment opportunities has forced many aliens reconsider migration to the U.S.
      To account for the other 5% with unknown origins as to why humans are being smuggled in to the US, it can only be left to speculation. The possibility that the small percentage of humans being smuggled into the US can be most likely associated to familial reasons, where family members attempt to smuggling in other relatives. However, there is a chance that a portion of that small percentage could be connected to the smuggling of individuals linked to outside organizations. Although there have been feared links between organizations, such as Al Qaeda and the MS-13 gang, nothing has been confirmed, but the possibility of such organizations working together to deceive US border patrol remains rather plausible.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence in the estimative statements in this report is moderate given the overall quality of the sources and the degree to which the sources supported each other’s findings. Analytic collaboration regarding this requirement was not extensive and the complexity of the requirement was high due to the changing economic conditions within the United States.
      For questions or comments, please contact the author
      Analyst: Kathleen Rhodes
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      Appendix I: Defined Terms
      Alien - According to the Department of Homeland Security, any person not a citizen or national of the United States.Asylee – According to the Department of Homeland Security, Aliens who would otherwise meet the definition of a refugee but are already in the United States Seeking this benefit.Deception – According to the Department of Defense, Deception is those measures designed to mislead the enemy by manipulation, distortion or falsification of evidence to induce the enemy to react in a manner prejudicial to the enemy’s interests.Denial – According to the Department of Defense, denial attempts to deny your adversary key information either about your military forces, your leadership, the status of your country, the effect of the adversary's campaign on your country, on its infrastructure.Denial and Deception – According to the Department of Defense, Denial and Deception is used to conceal state and military secrets, particularly from foreign intelligence collection.Human Smuggling – According to the State Department, human smuggling is the facilitation, transportation, attempted transportation or illegal entry of a person(s) across an international border, in violation of one or more countries laws, either clandestinely or through deception, such as the use of fraudulent documents.Human Trafficking – According to the State Department, unlike human smuggling, which is often a criminal commercial transaction between two willing parties who go their separate ways once their business is complete, trafficking specifically targets the trafficked person as an object of criminal exploitation. The purpose from the beginning of the trafficking enterprise is to profit from the exploitation of the victim. Human trafficking does not require the crossing of an international border - it does not even require the transportation of victims from one locale to another. Victims do not have to be women or children - they may also be adult males.Illegal Alien – According to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), a noncitizen who has not been lawfully admitted to the United States or who has violated the terms of his/her lawful admission.Immigrant – According to the Department of Homeland Security, a Permanent Resident Alien and an immigrant are one in the same. Immigrant is the common term used to describe Permanent Resident .Migrant – According to the department of Homeland Security, A person who leaves his/her country of origin to seek residence in another .Permanent Resident Alien – According to the Department of Homeland Security, An alien admitted to the United States as a lawful permanent resident. Permanent residents are also commonly referred to as immigrants; however, the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) broadly defines an immigrant as any alien in the United States, except one legally admitted under specific nonimmigrant categories (INA section 101(a)(15)). An illegal alien who entered the United States without inspection, for example, would be strictly defined as an immigrant under the INA but is not a permanent resident alien. Lawful permanent residents are legally accorded the privilege of residing permanently in the United States. They may be issued immigrant visas by the Department of State overseas or adjusted to permanent resident status by the Department of Homeland Security in the United States.Refugee – According to the Law Enforcement Training Center, any person who is outside his or her country of nationality who is unable or unwilling to return to that country because of persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution. Persecution or the fear thereof must be based on the alien's race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion. People with no nationality must generally be outside their country of last habitual residence to qualify as a refugee. Refugees are subject to ceilings by geographic area set annually by the President in consultation with Congress and are eligible to adjust to lawful permanent resident status after one year of continuous presence in the United .Special Interest Alien – According to various reports on the arrest of special interest aliens they are: An alien whose country of origin is one in which there is known Al Qaeda .Terrorism – According to US Code Title 22 Chapter 38 terrorism is defined as premeditated, politically motivated, that is actions that are intended to guide or influence government policy, violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets, that is individuals who are not members of the military services or military members who are not actively involved in military hostilities, by sub national groups or clandestine agents.Terrorist – According to the Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy (200), a politically motivated individual who commits an act of violence against a non-combative target in order to further change or alter a governmental policy opposite ones ideological view point.
      Appendix II: Contact Information
      Katherine Porter -- Southern BorderEmail: kporte82@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 814.881.0514Kirk Shoemaker -- Southern BorderEmail: kshoem43@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 717.515.3513Frank Caprezza-- Northern BorderEmail: fcarap16@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 585.472.5621Justin Hall -- Northern BorderEmail: jhall91@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 216.533.1269Kyle Doyle -- Atlantic/Pacific BorderEmail: kdoyle55@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 770.905.9901Kathleen Rhodes -- Atlantic/Pacific BorderEmail: krhode20@mercyhurst.eduTel. #: 858.205.2398
      Appendix III:
      Mexican Cartels Operating Along the Southern Border
      Figure 3 Mexican Cartel's areas of influence http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/mexico_drug_trade_without_gulf_cartel160020067310Common Trends
      Increased coordination among Mexican cartels, human smuggling networks and U.S. based gangs.
      Chances are greater than even cartels charge/extort small scale human smuggler to use their routes during the transportation phase.
      Cartels utilize gangs as enforcers for their operations.
      Use advanced weapons and technology to facilitate smuggling of all kinds.
      It is likely cartels will take a more active role in the human smuggling trade over the next five years.
      Direct-actually smuggle individuals
      Indirect- more likely
      Exploit human smugglers by charging fees to use routes.
      Increase control of areas around border charge ‘protection fees’ similar to mob bosses in the U.S.
      Gulf Cartel
      The most powerful Mexican cartel.
      Leader extradited in 2007
      Osiel Cardenas Guillen
      Extremely violent
      Los Zetas
      Presence in 13 states, center of operations is the northern state of Tamaulipas.
      Borders the south eastern border of Texas—key transit point for smuggling
      Formed an alliance with the Tijuana cartel, following the imprisonment of their leaders
      • The Gulf cartel is reportedly branching out into other trafficking activities, including migrant smuggling. One possible explanation for the cartel's expansion into other smuggling efforts is that drug profits are down because of recent U.S. and Mexican enforcement efforts. The Gulf cartel is reportedly involved in human smuggling along the Texas border. U.S. authorities report that the drug cartels take part in human smuggling to divert U.S. law enforcement attention away from drug routes.
      • 2333625330835Highly likely involved in human smuggling along the Texas border, according to Mexican deputy attorney general.
      • Los Zetas: Enforcer gang employed by Gulf Cartel
      • A private army under the control of the Gulf Cartel.
      • Formed from a group of 30 deserted lieutenants and sub-lieutenants from the Special Air Mobile Force Group in the 1990’s.
      • Figure 4 Los Zetas area of operation in red. http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081209_mexican_drug_cartels_government_progress_and_growing_violenceUtilize sophisticated technology and operational methods.
      • Estimates range from 31-200 members of the gang.
      • 2005 report alleged the Zetas hired at least 30 former Guatemalan Special Forces.
      • Act as assassins for the Cartel.
      • Three-tiered structure
      • Leaders
      • Middlemen-coordinate contracts with petty criminals to carry out street work
      • Contractors
      • Control the trafficking/smuggling routes along the eastern-half of the U.S.-Mexican border
      • They are also used along the southern border due to the territorial dispute with the Juarez and Sinaloa cartels
      • Trained La Familia, the enforcer gang operating in the Michoacan region.
      Tijuana Cartel
      Present in 15 states and based in Tijuana near Baja and San Diego California
      Alliance with the Gulf Cartel.
      U.S. law enforcement believe the ability of the cartel to operate is weakened after the arrest and deaths of key leaders.
      They are now forced to use corrupt officials, intimidation methods, including torture, kidnapping and murder to control smuggling routes.
      Headed by the Arellano Felix Family.
      Not clear who is in charge today—many arrests
      Weaker than in the past but still controls the Tijuana-San Diego border.
      Colima Cartel
      Operates in 7 states and is based on the Pacific state of Colima
      Specializes in Methamphetamines.
      Leaders are the Amezcua Contreras brothers aka the Methamphetamine kings
      In jail since 1997
      In 2007 reports surfaced alleging they were taking over some of the smuggling routes of the Sinaloa, Tijuana and Gulf Cartels.
      Oaxaca Cartel
      Present in 13 states and base of operations is in the southern states of Oaxaca and Chiapas
      Is primarily invested in the marijuana trade along the southern border of Mexico
      Possible involvement in the smuggling of migrants into Mexico from Latin America
      Possible cooperation with the Tijuana cartel.
      Federation
      An alliance of the Juarez, Sinaloa and Valencia cartels.
      They work together, but remain separate organization.
      Juarez Cartel
      Found in 21 Mexican states, principle base is in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua directly across from El Paso, Texas
      Member of the Federation.
      Headed by Vicente Carrillo Fuentas.
      Dominated the 1990’s less power after death of former leader Amado Carrillo Fuentes
      Utilizes hit men and spies—2007 prosecution of Arturo Hernandez
      Considered one of the big four of cartels
      Sinaloa Cartel
      212407576200Presence in 17 states and based in northwestern state of Sinaloa
      Member of the Federation along with Juarez and Valencia
      Headed by Joaquin “El Chap” Guuzman
      Escaped prison in 2001 (Mexican)
      Engaged in turf war with the Gulf Cartel
      2007 5 cartel members arrested in Peru
      • Figure SEQ Figure * ARABIC 5 Sinaloa Organizational structure. http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081209_mexican_drug_cartels_government_progress_and_growing_violenceThe Sinaloa cartel is also reported to be expanding into human smuggling, perhaps in response to the shutdown of drug trafficking routes. The Sinaloa cartel reportedly now controls most migrant smuggling routes into Arizona.
      • In response to the Zetas they formed their own gangs: The Negros and Pelones
      • Less sophisticated than the Zetas.
      • Edgar “La Barbie” Valdes Villarreal is the alleged leader of the Negros
      • Alleged use of members of Mexico’s Federal Investigative Agency (AFI) as enforcers
      • In 2005 1/5 of officers were under investigation of corruption.
      Valencia Cartel
      Present in 13 states with a base of operation near the central state of Michoacan
      Led by Luis and Armando Valencia.
      Operates in the trafficking state of Colima, on the Pacific coast.
      Endnotes: