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Future State 2030:
The global megatrends
shaping governments

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”)...
Contents

Introduction

3

The global megatrends

4

Understanding interconnectedness

34

Tools available to governments
...
Introduction
A host of global megatrends are
impacting the planet

These are placing governments around
the world under si...
The global megatrends impacting governments into 2030

■ Demographics
■ Rise of the individual
■ Enabling technology

■ Cl...
Global megatrend #1: Demographics

Will I have a pension when I am old and
will it be sufficient for me to live on?
© 2013...
Global megatrend #1: Demographics

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a...
Global megatrend #1: Demographics

The consequences of
demographics

The consequences of dem ographics
An aging world

Pub...
Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual

What is government doing to improve services for
me? And how will they ke...
Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG Inte...
Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual

The consequences of the
rise of the individual

Education enabling
empowe...
Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology

How do I keep evolving my skills to ensure that
they are relevant?
© 2013 KPMG I...
Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG Internation...
Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology

The consequences of
enabling technology

0 1 0 11
0 0 0 11
101000
0001
Transform...
Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness

How will governments help us compete?
© 2013 KPMG International Cooperat...
Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG Int...
Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness

The consequences
of economic
interconnectedness

Trade and investment
co...
Global megatrend #5: Public debt

How is government balancing the need to reduce
debt against the need to stimulate growth...
Global megatrend #5: Public debt

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a ...
Global megatrend #5: Public debt

The consequences
of public debt

Increasingly important
international and
intergovernmen...
Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift

FACT:

How is government adjusting to a new economic
world order?
© 2013 KPMG I...
Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift

The evidence of
change
FACT:

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG Inte...
Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift

The consequences of
economic power shift
FACT:

The ‘global south’ as
the engin...
Global megatrend #7: Climate change

Is government doing enough to reduce CO2
emissions in our country?

© 2013 KPMG Inter...
Global megatrend #7: Climate change

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”),...
Global megatrend #7: Climate change

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”),...
Global megatrend #7: Climate change

The consequences of
climate change

Unpredictable, dramatic
ecosystem impacts

The ch...
Global megatrend #8: Resource stress

What is government doing to guarantee that my
children have sufficient food, water a...
Global megatrend #8: Resource stress

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”)...
Global megatrend #8: Resource stress

The consequences of
resource stress

Food and agricultural
pressures

Energy demand
...
Global megatrend #9: Urbanization

What is government doing to get rid of poverty in my
city?
© 2013 KPMG International Co...
Global megatrend #9: Urbanization

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a...
Global megatrend #9: Urbanization

The evidence of
change

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a...
Global Megatrend #9: Urbanization

The consequences
of urbanization

Urban growth driven
by developing world

Interrelatio...
Understanding interconnectedness

Demographics

Climate
change

Resource
Stress

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“K...
The tools available to governments
When looking at what governments may need to change, they may choose from:

Policy

Reg...
What we found
What some governments need to change?

Policy, including
the expansion of:
Engagement in forums

Regulation,...
What we found
How some governments need to change?
Strategies

Structures

Skills

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (...
Responding to megatrend impacts

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firm...
Characteristics of a ‘leading practice’ government in the future

Reactive in addressing the issues of the day

Proactive ...
kpmg.com/socialmedia

© 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms
of the KP...
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Future State 2030

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Future State 2030 is a series that explores how governments must respond to the global megatrends driving change into 2030. The series kicks off with a report that identifies nine global megatrends most salient to the future of governments and presents KPMG’s strategic review of the policy, regulatory and program changes governments will need to consider, as well as the strategies, structures and skills required to effectively implement these needed changes.

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Transcript of "Future State 2030"

  1. 1. Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 0
  2. 2. Contents Introduction 3 The global megatrends 4 Understanding interconnectedness 34 Tools available to governments 35 What we found 36 Responding to megatrend impacts 38 Leading practice governments 39 © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 1
  3. 3. Introduction A host of global megatrends are impacting the planet These are placing governments around the world under significant stress A deeper dive into the implications for governments & public sector policy makers Commissioned independent research from a government think tank © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 2
  4. 4. The global megatrends impacting governments into 2030 ■ Demographics ■ Rise of the individual ■ Enabling technology ■ Climate change ■ Resource stress ■ Urbanization © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. ■ Economic interconnectedness ■ Public debt ■ Economic power shift 3
  5. 5. Global megatrend #1: Demographics Will I have a pension when I am old and will it be sufficient for me to live on? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 4
  6. 6. Global megatrend #1: Demographics The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 5
  7. 7. Global megatrend #1: Demographics The consequences of demographics The consequences of dem ographics An aging world Public pension systems under pressure Healthcare spending increases © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Youth bulges 6
  8. 8. Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual What is government doing to improve services for me? And how will they keep me better informed? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 7
  9. 9. Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 8
  10. 10. Global megatrend #2: The rise of the individual The consequences of the rise of the individual Education enabling empowerment Rising incomes, rising expectations Rising income inequality within countries leading to potential for greater social unrest Faster dissemination of information through social media accelerates action Increasingly connected populations © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 9
  11. 11. Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology How do I keep evolving my skills to ensure that they are relevant? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 10
  12. 12. Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 11
  13. 13. Global megatrend #3: Enabling technology The consequences of enabling technology 0 1 0 11 0 0 0 11 101000 0001 Transformation of communication Big data New social service models The boundary between what is considered public and what is considered private is blurring New social service models © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Change of security and policing to focus on dealing with cyber crime Transportation transformations 12
  14. 14. Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness How will governments help us compete? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 13
  15. 15. Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 14
  16. 16. Global megatrend #4: Economic interconnectedness The consequences of economic interconnectedness Trade and investment continue to increase growth Increasingly complex trade and investment relationships Declining barriers to trade © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Greater risk for international (economic/financial) contagion events 15
  17. 17. Global megatrend #5: Public debt How is government balancing the need to reduce debt against the need to stimulate growth? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 16
  18. 18. Global megatrend #5: Public debt The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 17
  19. 19. Global megatrend #5: Public debt The consequences of public debt Increasingly important international and intergovernmental fiscal relationships Increased exposure to global market risks Population aging exacerbating public debt Reduced capacity to address future international economic/fiscal financial shocks Limited potential to meet growing demand for new services © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 18
  20. 20. Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift FACT: How is government adjusting to a new economic world order? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 19
  21. 21. Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift The evidence of change FACT: © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 20
  22. 22. Global megatrend #6: Economic power shift The consequences of economic power shift FACT: The ‘global south’ as the engine for growth Emerging multipolar world order Innovation as the source of sustaining growth © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Increased consumption base driving economic opportunities 21
  23. 23. Global megatrend #7: Climate change Is government doing enough to reduce CO2 emissions in our country? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 22
  24. 24. Global megatrend #7: Climate change The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 23
  25. 25. Global megatrend #7: Climate change The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 24
  26. 26. Global megatrend #7: Climate change The consequences of climate change Unpredictable, dramatic ecosystem impacts The challenge of global cooperation Pressure to adapt to ‘locked-in’ effects of global warming © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. A greater role for cities 25
  27. 27. Global megatrend #8: Resource stress What is government doing to guarantee that my children have sufficient food, water and energy? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 26
  28. 28. Global megatrend #8: Resource stress The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 27
  29. 29. Global megatrend #8: Resource stress The consequences of resource stress Food and agricultural pressures Energy demand on the rise Increased water demand Increased risk of resource nationalism Competition for metals and minerals © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 28
  30. 30. Global megatrend #9: Urbanization What is government doing to get rid of poverty in my city? © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 29
  31. 31. Global megatrend #9: Urbanization The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 30
  32. 32. Global megatrend #9: Urbanization The evidence of change © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 31
  33. 33. Global Megatrend #9: Urbanization The consequences of urbanization Urban growth driven by developing world Interrelationship between built environment and natural environment Large-scale urban infrastructure needs © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Urban poverty pressures including growing populations living in informal settlements 32
  34. 34. Understanding interconnectedness Demographics Climate change Resource Stress © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 33
  35. 35. The tools available to governments When looking at what governments may need to change, they may choose from: Policy Regulation Programs When looking at how governments may need to change, they may choose from: Strategies Structure © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Skills 34
  36. 36. What we found What some governments need to change? Policy, including the expansion of: Engagement in forums Regulation, including shifts that seek to: Programs, including shifts that seek to: Encourage behavioral change Minimize costs to government Evidence-based policy Enforce market practices Take a holistic long-term view of infrastructure systems © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 35
  37. 37. What we found How some governments need to change? Strategies Structures Skills © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 36
  38. 38. Responding to megatrend impacts © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 37
  39. 39. Characteristics of a ‘leading practice’ government in the future Reactive in addressing the issues of the day Proactive in addressing the problems of tomorrow Slow to medium technology adopter Performance and results are talked about Medium to fast technology adopter Performance and results are acted upon Government-centric service delivery Economy drives efficiency and effectiveness Policy design is considered separately from operational delivery Citizen-centric service delivery Effectiveness drives economy and efficiency Policy design is considered together with operational delivery © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. 38
  40. 40. kpmg.com/socialmedia © 2013 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
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