Employment Tracker DC Metro: March 2012


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The U.S. economy created 227,000 seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs in February, according to the latest employment report from the BLS. This is the third consecutive month of net job gains over 200,000. After flirting with a retrenchment in payroll growth this past summer, the U.S. economy has added 201,000 monthly payrolls, on average, since September. The latest metropolitan area employment figures show that the DC region added 13,400 office-using jobs on an annual basis in 2011.

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Employment Tracker DC Metro: March 2012

  1. 1. March 2012 Employment Tracker: Looking a Little Brighter The outlook for the U.S. economy But by no means are we “out of the Private Sector Delivers Growth Public Private Sector Employment, Annual has improved since the end of woods” yet regarding employment. Change, 000s 2011. Various national and global Continued domestic and 120 events have delivered positive news: international political uncertainty 100 80 at the end of February the Dow and a variety of economic 60 40 Jones Industrial Average surpassed headwinds due to rising oil prices 20 0 13,000, there was bipartisan present challenges to a speedier -20 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 -40 -60 agreement on extending the federal recovery. Nonetheless, the U.S. -80 Private Sector Fed/ State/ Local Govt payroll tax cut, and European leaders economy created 227,000 agreed on (another) Greek debt seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics rescue package. Labor markets in February, according to the latest the second half of the year, the DC are slowly gaining steam while employment report from the BLS. region ranked 5th among the top large layoffs continue to decline. This is the third consecutive month metropolitan areas for office job The Bureau of Labor Statistics of net job gains over 200,000, growth in 2011. (BLS) reported that mass layoffs in which include upward revisions January totaled 130,000 workers, to both December and January The most private sector jobs added on a seasonally-adjusted basis. employment figures. After flirting since 2007. The DC Metro’s private That is the third lowest monthly with a retrenchment in payroll sector added almost 17,000 jobs in figure since the recent recession growth this past summer, the U.S. 2011, on par with pre-recession began in December 2007. economy has added 201,000 2007 figures. On the other monthly payrolls, on average, since hand, the public sector – which Top Office Job Producing Markets September. Although metropolitan includes federal, state, and local Total Nonfarm, Annual Job Growth/Loss, 000s employment updates will not be governments – gained just 1,400 Dallas (1) available until the end of March, payrolls as the federal job machine New York, NY (2) we expect the DC region to post lost momentum throughout the year. Seattle (3) Los Angeles (4) positive results. In fact, 2011 saw the slowest publicWashington, DC (5) Houston (6) 13,400 jobs sector job growth in the DC Metro in 2011 DC ranks #5. The latest metropolitan San Jose (7) since government employment San Diego (8) area employment figures show that Minneapolis (9) contracted in 1998. AlthoughSan Francisco (10) the DC region added 13,400 office- both the public and private sectors -20 -10 0 10 20 30 using jobs on an annual basis in are important to the DC Metro’s 2011 2010 20111. That is well below the almost employment markets, it is private Sources: BLS, Moody’s Economy.com 20,000 office payrolls added in sector job growth that more closely 2010. Still, despite the Federal correlates with commercial office Copyright © 2012 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved. Government having shed jobs in
  2. 2. Employment Growth/Decline by Industry utilities sectors – continued to shrink 12 months, and most will hire DC Metro, 2011 vs. 2010 over the course of 2011, shedding cautiously due to political and 2,300 payrolls during the year. Still, economic uncertainties. In 2012,Prof. Bus. Services 11,900 Education HealthLeisure Hospitality 5,000 4,700 the transportation, warehousing, expect legal and lobbying firms as Financial Activities and utilities sector delivered well as corporate government affairs 2,500 Retail Trade 2,400 State Local Govt 800Federal Government 700 positive, albeit small, job growth Transport Utilities 200 Slow but Steady Growth for 2012 Information -1,500 adding 200 jobs—the first positive Manufacturing -2,500 DC Metro Annual Job Growth Other Services -3,100 gain since 2003. As the local and -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 national economies continue to 45,000 42,000 40,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics strengthen, a boost in demand 35,000 20 Year Historical Average 33,100 30,000 for goods and services eventually space demand (r=0.67). Thus, it 25,000 20,000 18,400 17,400 will drive employment and thus is key that the private sector deliver 15,000 demand for industrial/warehouse 10,000 sustained employment growth in 5,000 space due to increased production, 0 order for the region to experience 2011 2012 2013 2014 distribution, and inventories. robust net demand for office space. Source: BLS, Cassidy Turley Research Employment prospects slowly Private businesses drive growth. DC operations to drive employment improve. DC Metro added 18,400 Metro’s professional and business gains in the downtown markets, non-farm payrolls in 2011. BLS services (PBS) sector – a key user while information technology, revised this figure upward once of office space – added 11,900 finance and healthcare will propel already, and is expected to revise it payrolls in 2011. This is the largest suburban employment gains. upward again in light of the positive employment gain of any sector in national figures. The regional outlook 2011 and the largest increase for 1 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to Jan-Dec 2010 for 2012 employment mirrors the the PBS sector since 2006. While job growth trends in 2011, although still below historical averages, it net job creation will still be only half indicates that private businesses of the 20-year historical average. are starting to slowly hire in the DC While the Federal Government region. And more of those jobs are contributed positively to job growth full-time positions. In 2011, one in 2011, it will be a drag on regional in ten of PBS payrolls added were For more information contact: employment in 2012. The Federal temporary jobs compared to two in Government will continue to right- Jeffrey Kottmeier ten such jobs in 2010. Vice President, Director of Research size–mostly through attrition and Industrial employment – which retirement during the next year. DC Region includes the manufacturing and Private sector businesses will hire 202.463.2100 transportation, warehousing, and slowly throughout the coming Copyright © 2012 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved.