Conflicts 2030
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Conflicts 2030

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Conflicts 2030 Conflicts 2030 Presentation Transcript

  • Conflicts 2030 Factors and Locations World Political and Economic Geography Metropolitan University Prague 2013 Martin Kolmhofer kolmhofer@cee-portal.at
  • 44 % of the world population will live in Asia and Africa 8 billion people (vs 7 billion people now)
  • Countries with the biggest energy resources (oil, gas and coal)
  • In 2030 two thirds of all oil and gas exports will come from the Gulf States + Iraq + Iran
  • Save access and safe transport routes will be of high strategic importance for energy importing countries
  • The Strait of Hormuz , is a narrow, strategically important strait between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf. It is estimated that by 2030 one third of all oil exports will pass through this strait.
  • The Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy is responsible for naval forces in  the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and coast off East Africa as far south as  Kenya. 
  • China? Will keep being dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf. To reduce the risks caused by the long sea route China is building a deep-sea port situated at Gwadar in Pakistan.
  • Proposed trans-Himalayan pipe would link Pakistan's deepwater port of Gwadar with China's remote western regions. Oil tankers would no longer have to pass the straits of Malacca and Formosa.
  • Siberia could cause conflicts between China and Russia – emigration from northeastern Chinese provinces to Siberia (especially in the area of Irkutsk – many natural resources)
  • The Senkaku Islands (Chinese: Diaoyu Islands) are a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. The islands are an issue in foreign relations between Japan and China because of oil and gas resources
  • Spratly Islands and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea: Disputed between Vietnam and China
  • Other mineral resources (Copper, Iron, Gold, Bauxite) are limited to very few locations. China owns over 50 % of rare earth elements (very important for communication technology). Slashing their exports of rare-earth metals is all about moving Chinese manufacturers up the supply chain, so they can sell valuable finished goods to the world rather than lowly raw materials. As a result of the increased demand and tightening restrictions on exports of the metals from China, some countries are stockpiling rare earth resources.
  • In 2030 about 50 % of the world’s population will live in areas where water is scarce
  • Example: Nile rises in Ethiopia. Ethiopia wants to build a big dam on the border to Sudan. Concerns from down stream countries Sudan and Egypt that construction of the massive dam project will reduce water flow.
  • Melting of glaciers in the Himalaya could cause freshwater shortage in neighboring countries
  • Shortage of fertile soil due to increase in world population. Currently China, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia are already buying or renting land.
  • Example Mozambique: 20 % of all fertile soil was sold or rent to other countries since 2000 (View details at landportal.info)
  • The Northwest Passage was, again, free of ice in summer 2011 and the polar region could be unfrozen in just 30 years
  • Consequence: The sea route between Europe and Asia will get almost 4000 km shorter Northwest Passage: sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans Northeast Passage: sea route running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East
  • Melting of the arctic ice gives also access to new resources – Result: conflicting territorial claims
  • Territorial waters: The World's EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) Generally, a state's EEZ extends to a distance of 200 miles (370 km) out from its coastal line.
  • The Russian Flag planted on the Arctic Seabed. Canada sees it as a direct violation of Canadian Waters.