Volume 1 Number 1           Mobile Handset analyst                     May 25, 2004        THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS NEWS...
newsEditor                             M continued from page 1Michael Carrollmichael.carroll@informa.com                  ...
news                                                                                                                      ...
newsMobile Handset analyst                         III   China                                                            ...
shorts                                                                                                                    ...
dataSelected 1Q handset shipments by technology           Vendor              Model             Radio frequency (MHz)     ...
dataSelected 1Q handset shipments by technology (cont.) Vendor                     Model                Radio frequency (M...
business analysisMobile Handset analyst                         Warren Saunders looks at conformance testing in 3G        ...
news analysis                                                                                                             ...
sector profileMobile Handset analyst                         JAVA                         Fragmentation threatens to stall...
sector profile                                                                                                            ...
Order Form: Newsletters     M O B I L E H A N D S E T A N A LY S T                                                        ...
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Handset report

  1. 1. Volume 1 Number 1 Mobile Handset analyst May 25, 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS NEWSLETTER OF DEVICES, COMPONENTS, SOFTWARE AND SMART CARDS Contents III Components NEWS Investment could open 2 Qualcomm looks to the future with doors for Intuwave NEWS 3 complete HDSPA solution Low-end vendors force Sewon to CDMA-chipset supplier Qualcomm might have gotten a megapixels for camera functions. close / IPWireless rolls jump on its rivals with the announcement last week of an The chipset forms part of an overall solution covering out UMTS/TDD HSDPA-enabled solution that is due to ship in sample transmit and receive hardware that includes the U.S.-based NEWS 4 quantities in 2H05. According to industry watchers, gain- firm’s RT6275 transceiver, RFR6275 diversity receiver and Foreign vendors held top slots in ing an early lead in the market will be critical in the long PM6650 powerOne power-management solution. China / Openwave details term, with analysts predicting that HSDPA will come of The RFR6275 receiver has been specially developed in Magic4 purchase age by 2006 or 2007. conjunction with the MSM6280 for HSDPA and builds Qualcomm says its MSM6280 solution will offer peak on the firm’s RTR6275 solution, which was announced at SHORTS 5 data rates of 7.2Mbps across GPRS, EDGE, WCDMA the same time. The RFR chip uses CMOS digital process HP offers wireless printing / and HSDPA networks. The chipset is pin-compatible with technology that is common in the components industry. Symbian offers apps signing / Qualcomm’s MSM6275 product, which means that hard- The chip includes a second antenna for HSDPA that Parts shortage afflicts Treo / ware and software platforms can be shared in order to cut Qualcomm says provides improved signal reception to en- Upgraded UI solution ships / LG certification and development times. able higher data throughput, which it claims gives the picks ART voice solution With high data rates perceived to be the savior of the product the ability to enable up to 5dB receive diversity mobile industry because they offer the ability to deploy gain. In addition, the 6x6mm, 40-pin Quad Flat No-Lead DATA 6 multimedia services, Qualcomm has geared the RFR chip integrates a GPS receiver, making it suitable forSelected 1Q04 handset shipments by technology MSM6280 to work with QVGA and CIF resolution video devices shipping in the U.S. and other markets where decode and encode. Other multimedia capabilities include emergency location services are mandatory. BUSINESS ANALYSIS 8 MPEG-4 decode and encode, 2D/3D graphics support “When it comes to handset interoperability, the lead play- for gaming, and support for imaging sensors up to 4 M Warren Saunders looks at continued on page 2 conformance testing in 3G III WCDMA 9 NEWS ANALYSIS Vendors jockeying Motorola aims to ‘own’ UMTS-handset market for position / KTF likely to follow U.S. vendor Motorola wants to become the dominant Evolution of Motorola’s UMTS devices LGT’s free-MP3 crusade player in the dual-band UMTS handset market by next year as it uses next-generation platforms to gain 20-30% Handset A830 A835 E1000 SECTOR PROFILE 10 market share. “In 2005, we want to own the market,” said Introduced 2002 2003 2004 Java: Fragmentation threatens to Ward Vermoere, senior manager of 3G product operations Size 173cc 139cc 105cc stall growing handset market at Motorola’s Personal Communications Sector. “We are Weight 210g* 155g 140g working with a lot of network partners, and they are work- Display 176x220 176x220 240x320 SUBSCRIBER SERVICE 12 ing with three to four strategy partners each.” Colors 4,000 65,000 262,000 Motorola started shipping UMTS handsets in late Camera VGA VGA 1.2 megapixel 2002 and, according to Vermoere, had shipped more P2P video No Yes Yes than 750,000 by end-March. In fact, the vendor shipped PDA A920 A925 A1000 a total of 450,000 units in 1Q04 alone – mainly to Introduced 2003 2003 2004From the publishers of Hutchison 3G. Size 173cc 173cc 114cc This year, Vermoere says Motorola will use current 3G Weight 212g 212g 160g software platforms and drive down the size, weight and Display 208x320 208x320 208x320 battery-drain reductions of terminals (see fig.). “We’re get- Colors 65,000 65,000 262,000and ting there,” he said. In 2002, UMTS handsets were 160% Camera VGA VGA 1.2 megapixel the size of a GSM unit. That figure had fallen to 140% in P2P video Yes Yes Yes 2003 and 110% this year, and parity is expected to be *Including camera Source: Motorola reached next year.
  2. 2. newsEditor M continued from page 1Michael Carrollmichael.carroll@informa.com er has a significant edge because all new- sson. While Sony Ericsson has been er,” by enabling them to close the gap onEditorial Director comers to an operator’s handset stable making a good comeback in handsets, rivals KDDI, Verizon, Sprint PCS andGavin Pattersongavin.patterson@informa.com will have to keep pace with the leader,” which will help drive some degree of China Unicom, which have deployedCorrespondents says Joe Nordgaard, managing director of consumption for the Ericsson chipset, 1xRTT and EV-DO technologies.Peggy Albright (U.S.) U.S. consulting firm Spectral Advantage. the Ericsson solution has the ‘competi- But investment bank CSFB pointsAhn Mi-Young (South Korea) Nordgaard admits that the new tors stigma’ printed right on it.” out that any weakness in existingChief Subeditor Qualcomm solutions have caused him The spinout of Motorola’s semicon- CDMA markets could affect Qual-Charles Gordon to rethink the future of WCDMA tech- ductor division last year certainly lends comm’s results in the near term. The lat-Production ManagerFelicity Agyemang nology as a whole. “For some years, I credence to Nordgaard’s view. But est figures from the bank showMarketing have maintained that WCDMA will Qualcomm is still in a strong position India-based CDMA carrier ReliancePaul Waite become irrelevant around 2007,” he with regard to WCDMA chipsets and with 236,000 net subscriber additionsT: (44) 20 7017 5614 says. “These two announcements from last week announced that its list of ven- for April, down 36% month on monthpaul.waite@informa.com Qualcomm now have me seriously re- dor customers has grown to 21 with the and 27% on the 359,000 adds in AprilPublisherMark Newman considering that assessment. Indeed, addition of BenQ, Mitsubishi Electric, 2003. “Given that Reliance has addedMain Office 2007 may be the date that WCDMA Pantech & Curitel and Vitelcom Mo- only 1.2 million subscribers throughMortimer House does become seriously relevant.” bile Technology. Qualcomm’s customer April, we continue to believe our full-37-41 Mortimer Street Although the technology problems list already included Hisense Group, year estimate of 10 million units in In-London W1T 3JHT: (44) 20 7017 5000 might be solved by then, Nordgaard Huawei Technologies, LG Electronics, dia is the largest risk to our QualcommF: (44) 20 7017 4288 points out that the established dichoto- Novatel Wireless, Option NV, Sam- forecasts,” the bank says.Web Site my of independent chipset firms vs. sung, Sanyo Electric, Sierra Wireless, Handset sales in South Korea, bywww.baskerville.telecoms.com vendor’s own components arms will re- Toshiba and ZTE. “I doubt Ericsson contrast, remain on track to meetSubscriber Service main. “An important issue in this will amass such a following, no matter CSFB’s 2004 forecast of 18 millionKate Halls and Rob Turner chipset footrace is having a chipset of- how well their chipsets may work,” units, despite an 18% month-on-monthBaskervilleSheepen Place fering divorced from other competitive Nordgaard says. decline to 1.56 million in April. “We at-Colchester interests,” he says. “Why would I buy a Nordgaard says the RFR6275’s com- tribute the sequential decline to a slow-Essex C03 3LP chipset from a handset vendor who is patibility with quad-band GSM850/ down in demand from mobile numberT: (44) 20 7017 5533 my competitor? 900/1800/1900 could prove a bonus for portability, along with a reduction inF: (44) 20 7017 4783 “The next-closest competitor in the Qualcomm because it might “draw channel inventories that we believe weretelecoms.enquiries@informa.com WCDMA chipset race – by all inde- NTT DoCoMo, Cingular, Vodafone built in 1Q04,” the bank says. pendent accounts – appears to be Eric- and eventually China Mobile much clos- michael.carroll@informa.comAmericasT: (1) 978 258 2500F: (1) 978 258 2500 III Softwarecolleen.barron@informa.comPrinted in the UK 23 times a US$3.6 mil. investment could open doors for Intuwaveyearand distributed by air mail. Sales of a smartphone-software-testing to bring a level of automation to smart- Intuwave’s m-Test solution offers(Print) ISSN 1744-1250 solution from UK-based Intuwave phone software testing. “Vendors are what Fox describes as “a window into(Online) ISSN 1744-1269 could be aided by a recent investment our first port of call for m-Test, but the device to speed up vendor’s ownNo part of this publication maybe copied, photocopied or from GemVentures, the venture-capi- we’d like to know more about opera- software script testing.” Thus, theduplicated without prior written tal fund of French smart-card provider tors and their requirements in handset product covers testing of applications,permission from the publishers. Gemplus, by granting Intuwave access and network testing,” says Intuwave regression and interoperability, local-© 2004 Baskerville to Gemplus’ handset-vendor cus- product manager Angus Fox. “Ven- ization and basic acceptance, such as tomers. dors have a multitude of test solutions phone boot and UI response. The deal – announced last week – and requirements … and have tried to The solution is initially available will see GemVentures invest US$3.6 shape them to their own require- only for Symbian-based terminals us- million in cash in Intuwave and gives ments.” ing the Series 60 platform and UIQ Gemplus a seat on Intuwave’s board. Fox says the variety of test solutions user interface, though Fox says it will Terms of the investment will also re- has led to a lot of manual testing. be compatible with Series 80 devices quire Intuwave to merge with smart- “None of [the systems] work very well,” when the platform is ready. “We’re ef- card-security firm Apeera, in which he says. “They do test the devices, but fectively offering a pushbike to a GemVentures holds a minority stake. don’t offer advanced automation solu- group of people who are walking,” he Crucially, though, the investment tions. Phone development involves a says. “We think we know how to build will open up new avenues for In- lot of testing, but it’s still very expen- a car, but need to see some ROI on the tuwave’s m-Test solution, which aims sive.” first release before doing so.” 2 May 25, 2004
  3. 3. news Mobile Handset analystIII South Korea III Data cardsLow-end vendors force Sewon to close IPWireless rollsGrowing competition from Chinese the pair started feeling the pinch of out UMTS/TDDvendors at the low end of the market greater local competition. Telson Elec-forced South Korean vendor Sewon tronics is struggling not to go the same U.S.-based broadband wireless tech-Telecom into receivership May 3, and way as Sewon and has reduced its de- nology provider IPWireless last weekthe company will be delisted from the pendence on China by diversifying sales announced that it has begun shippingKOSDAQ secondary bourse June 1. outlets to the Americas while also try- dual-band UMTS/TDD laptop PC Analysts say the firm’s plight should ing to increase GSM phone shipments. cards to carriers in Europe, Australiaserve as a sobering reminder that South Telson said it is filling its pipeline and Japan. It also said it is developing aKorea can no longer rely on China as its with new deals in Mexico and Brazil af- tri-mode variant.major sales-revenue generator. ter signing carrier agreements in those The current UMTS/TDD PC card “In China, Sewon Telecom could markets in 2H03. The vendor promis- operates in the 1900MHz andnot survive the price competition in the es it is near its targeted sales-generation 2010MHz frequencies, which the firmlow-end segment, where price pressure breakdown of 40% for the Americas, estimates gives it a potential market offrom local rivals like TCL is the most 30% for China and 30% from the rest some 120 carriers in Europe and Asia.intense, while its attempt towards the of the world. One of the key features claimed bymidrange segment was blocked by Mo- The setback for Sewon comes at a IPWireless is that the frequencies usedtorola or Nokia,” says Steven Oh Se- time when Samsung and LGE are gain- should facilitate global roaming, sinceWook, an analyst at Samsung ing ground globally. South Korean an- the bulk of 3G licenses are for theSecurities. alysts indicate that Samsung and LGE’s 1900MHz and 2010MHz spectrum. Sewon generated about 90% of its combined world market share increased The first devices featuring the PCsales in China, with its portfolio com- from 10% in 2002 to 18.3% in 2003 card were shipped to Portuguese carri-prising mainly low-end units in the and project that the combined world er SonaeCom in April, and IPWirelessUS$50-60 range. By contrast, Samsung market share of Samsung, LG and Cu- says other vendor licensees are in theand LGE were switching to middle- to ritel will reach 25% by the end of 2004. process of developing new deviceshigh-priced handsets in the range of From a global perspective, Samsung based on its technology.US$150-200. is now closer to Nokia than to its local The company counts Alcatel, Solec- The emergence of strong Chinese counterparts, with 1Q04 shipments up tron, Nortel, Flextronics, Axcera, Pos-brands has polarized South Korean ven- 30% compared to 1Q03. “If Nokia sio and UP Tech among its partnersdors into a prosperous first-tier group uses an economy of scale as its weapon and licensees.comprising Samsung, LG Electronics to gain profit, Samsung uses a high In addition, IPWireless is workingand Curitel, and a second tier of un- price as its margin-fattening weapon,” on a tri-band 1900/2010/2500MHzderperforming vendors, led by Sewon. Oh told MHA. variant, which it says will help open up Sewon and Telson Electronics were In 2003, the average sale price for a the U.S. market because it will coverthe main South Korea vendors to have Samsung handset was US$194, com- MMDS spectrum, while also sittingcashed in on the fledgling Chinese pared with Nokia’s US$149 and well with any European expansion intoCDMA phone market. But in 2003, US$143 for Motorola. the 2500MHz band.May 25, 2004 3
  4. 4. newsMobile Handset analyst III China III Software Foreign vendors held top slots in March Openwave details Sales of data-enabled handsets in Chi- devices before the fourth quarter. Magic4 purchase na contributed to a 19% year-on-year Nevertheless, non-Chinese vendors rise in sell-through numbers to 4.83 achieved a 55.4% share of the market U.S. software-solutions provider Open- million units in March, with nondo- in March and dominate the top 10 wave Systems has rounded out an- mestic vendors shipping more devices slots in MMS handset shipments (see nouncements of deals with IBM and than local rivals. fig.). U.S. vendor Motorola shored up Siemens covering its mobile browser by Credit Suisse First Boston says that its second-place standing, achieving a revealing that it has signed a definitive overall March shipments were down 15.4% market share – though CSFB agreement to buy UK-based messag- 5% compared with February’s figure notes that Motorola remains top dog ing-software firm Magic4. and that sales of CDMA units in par- when it comes to ASP value – while Under terms of the deal, Open- ticular declined 7% to 530,000 – Samsung echoed its global 1Q04 per- wave will purchase all outstanding roughly 11% of the total market. formance with a market share of 9.8% shares of Magic4 for US$82.6 million GSM-based units accounted for in March. in cash and stock. The final split has 89% of the market in March, though Meanwhile, Siemens has continued not been decided, but the pair have CSFB states that both technologies en- to lose market share and was ranked agreed on a minimum cash payment joyed stronger ASPs because of growing just 15th in March. CSFB said the ven- of 40% of the price. sales of midtier data-enabled products. dor had a 2% share of the overall mar- The acquisition is due to close in “The proportion of CDMA 1x ket in March. The German vendor’s July, and Magic4 should contribute handsets in the overall sales mix has partnership with domestic player Ning- US$9-11 million in revenue by year- risen from 48% a year ago to 85% in bo Bird is viewed as a positive, because end, according to Openwave’s figures. March 2004,” CSFB said. “For GSM, of the 30,000 additional retail outlets That figure is expected to grow to the proportion of handsets sold with a Siemens will gain access to. Bird ended US$35 million by end-2005. camera increased from 2.3% to 16.4% March with a 7% share of the market, Scott Ellison, director of wireless during the same period, and the pro- though the bank cautions that the firm and mobile communications at re- portion of MMS-capable phones in- – like Nokia – is too focused on low- search group IDC, says the move is creased from 6% in April 2003 to 35% end products. timely. “Tighter integration between in March 2004.” TCL, a joint-venture partner of the primary data applications on the The bank say the trend toward mid- French vendor Alcatel, ended March phone – messaging and browsing – is or high-end devices is not good news with a 6.5% market share. “Similar to essential to improving service usabili- for Finnish vendor Nokia, because of Ningbo Bird, TCL’s focus is more on ty and driving adoption,” he says. the firm’s focus on low-end devices in the low-end segment, and it had a 15% Openwave perhaps demonstrated China. While Nokia maintained its share in the RMB1,000-1,500 its understanding of Ellison’s view leading position in March with a share (US$121-181) segment in March,” when it teamed up with IBM to inte- of 15.6%, CSFB expresses little confi- CSFB says. “TCL’s local distribution grate WebSphere Everyplace Mi- dence that the vendor will be able to re- network does not seem to help it gain croenvironment with its Openwave act to the upward shift with higher-end market share any longer.” Phone Suite v.7. IBM’s product fea- tures certified implementations of Top 10 MMS models, Mar-04 J2ME technology, including CLDC Rank Vendor Model Retail price (US$) Market share (%) and MIDP, while Openwave’s mobile 1 Nokia 3100 185 2.9 software offers a raft of multimedia 2 Nokia 6108 271 1.7 solutions, including browsing, client 3 Nokia 3108 214 1.5 provisioning, download, DRM, 4 Nokia 6100 250 1.1 MMS and e-mail. 5 Motorola C550 200 1.1 The pair expects the first devices 6 Samsung SGH-S508 302 1.0 based on the combined software to ship 7 Nokia 6610 230 1.0 in early 2005. 8 Motorola E365 283 0.9 Before then, the first Siemens de- vices based on v.7 – the 65 series – are 9 Motorola E380 204 0.9 expected to ship in mid-2004, follow- 10 Sony Ericsson T618 322 0.9 ing Openwave’s announcement of a Source: CSFB deal with the German vendor last week. 4 May 25, 2004
  5. 5. shorts Mobile Handset analystBLUETOOTH PLATFORMS PDAsHP offers wireless printing RIM builds application list Laplink updates sync solutionSony Ericsson and Hewlett-Packard Wireless e-mail solutions provider Re- U.S.-based synchronization technolo-have agreed on a deal to offer mobile search In Motion has reached an gy provider Laplink has announcedprinting facilities on Sony Ericsson’s agreement with SAP – a provider of details of its latest PDA-synchroniza-P800 and P900 smartphones using business software – to integrate the tion application, which the firmHP’s Wireless printing for Mobile mySAP CRM and SAP(r) solutions with claims offers more functionality andPhones software application. The solu- its BlackBerry handheld platform to of- compatibility than stand-alone Palmtion uses Bluetooth to connect the fer an integrated mobile sales solution. Hotsync or MS ActiveSync solutions.handset to compliant HP printers and The combined product is aimed at mo- PDAsync 3.0 synchronizes contacts,can handle JPEG images, e-mail, SMS, bile sales staff and will offer the abil- calendar, tasks, e-mail and notes be-contacts and calendar items. The soft- ity to view sales orders and CRM tween mobile devices and desktop orware is being made available for down- analytics. Both firms will contribute laptop PCs. The solution also addsload from Sony Ericsson’s web site. engineering, technical, marketing and compatibility with Pocket PC 2003, sales resources to the solution, which Microsoft Outlook 2003, Lotus notesOSes SAP plans to make available later this 6.5 and selected Sony Ericsson ter-Symbian offers apps signing year. In a separate announcement, minals. Laplink is offering PDAsyncUK-based operating-system provider RIM has announced networking and 3.0 as a download for US$60.Symbian has launched an application systems-integration firm LAN 2 LAN USER INTERFACEsigning program to standardize content as its first officially accredited providerfor the platform in order to drive ap- of an integrated wireless enterprise ap- Upgraded UI solution shipsplication development. The Symbian plication service for BlackBerry de- UK-based mobile interface firm Tri-Signed program tests applications vices in the UK. LAN 2 LAN supports genix has begun shipping the latestagainst industry standards for carriers access to back-end databases, includ- version of its UI solution, which itand vendors as well as providing de- ing IBM Lotus Domino and Microsoft claims provides the first practical for-veloper authentication and anti-tamp- SQL server, in addition to word-pro- mat for defining handset UIs and serv-er security. The program will also cessing tools, spreadsheets and pres- ice stores. Trigenix T4 builds on theprovide a distribution channel for Sym- entation applications. firm’s previous solutions by addingbian-based applications, and develop- compatibility with Windows Mobile,ers whose applications are approved Symbian adds Philips to list Java MIDP 1.0 and 2.0 and Symbianwill be permitted to employ a logo sig- Royal Philips Electronics last week an- OS-based devices, which Trigenix es-nifying compliance with the tests. nounced that it has joined Symbian’s timates will account for roughly half of Platinum Partner program in order to all handset shipments by end-2004.I-MODE grow the customer base for its NexperiaNTT DoCoMo grows portfolio products. The Nexperia range consists LG picks ART voice solutionJapanese operator NTT DoCoMo con- of reprogrammable and ready-to-inte- South Korean vendor LG Electronicstinues to expand its range of i-mode grate system and IC solutions for mobile will deploy voice-control solutionshandsets with the launch this week of multimedia applications, with features from ART in its latest range of CDMAthe D506i and F506i models from including software IP libraries. terminals for the U.S. market, follow-domestic vendors Mitsubishi and Fu- ing the announcement of a deal be- COMPONENTSjitsu, respectively. The D506i fea- tween the two firms last week. ART’stures a voice-activated camera Parts shortage afflicts Treo smARTspeak XGT embedded speechshutter that takes pictures in re- U.S.-based vendor PalmOne – the interface will feature in LG’s 4500 se-sponse to a prerecorded word and a hardware arm of Palm – is reportedly ries devices to enable voice dialingmultifunction button on the side of facing a shortage of parts because of from contacts or spoken-phone-num-the device to control camera, voice strong demand for its Treo 600 smart- ber input. The solution also recognizesrecorder, photo viewing and incom- phone. The components in short sup- commands including “contact” anding-call-log features. The F506i in- ply include displays and associated “redial” and offers trainable digit di-cludes an autofocus CCD camera with connections, though the firm is said aling that can be adjusted to the2-megapixel resolution, a 262,144- to be confident of sourcing alternative user’s accent. ART’s solution is fullycolor QVGA TFT display and a sweep- supplies to satisfy demand for the speaker-independent and featurestype fingerprint sensor for locking and 160,000 Treo units it expects to ship voice-feedback capability to confirmunlocking the keypad. by end-May. spoken commands.May 25, 2004 5
  6. 6. dataSelected 1Q handset shipments by technology Vendor Model Radio frequency (MHz) Display Battery type Battery life Alcatel One Touch 332a 800/1900 4,096-color Lithium Ion 600 mAh 360 mins GSM One Touch 156 4,096-color One Touch 155 4,096-color 270 mins Philips 355 4,096-color 240 mins Alcatel One Touch 735i 900/1800 128x128-pixel, 4,096-color Lithium Ion 800 mAh 420 mins One Touch 756 900/1800/1900 262,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 950 mAh 480 mins One Touch 835 900/1800 262,000-color Lithium Ion 785 mAh 420 mins One Touch 556 900/1800/1900 128x160-pixel, 65,000-color STN Lithium Ion 800 mAh 420 mins One Touch 355 65,000-color Motorola V600 850/900/1800/1900 176x220-pixel, 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 750 mAh 210-450 mins V220 Tri-band Color V80 900/1800/1900 176x220-pixel, 65,000-color TFT 210 mins V400p 850/900/1800/1900 MPx 900/1800/1900 320x240-pixel, 256,000-color TFTcolor 180 mins MPx100 900/1800/1900 65,000-color TFT 450 mins A840* GSM 900/1800; 1x 800/1900 220x176-pixel, 65,000-color TFT NEC N900 900/1800 120x160-pixel color TFT N910 900/1800 128x160-pixel, 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 180 mins N820 900/1800 320x240-pixel QVGA LCD N331i 900/1800/1900 128x160-pixel, 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 700 mAh 200 mins Nokia 5140 900/1800/1900, 850/1800/1900 128x128-pixel color 300 mins 7610 900/1800/1900 and 850/1800/1900 65,000-color Lithium Ion 900 mAh 180 mins GPRS Panasonic X700 900/1800/1900 65,536-color TFT X300 65,000-color P341i 900/1800/1900 132x176-pixel, 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 300 mins Philips 535 900/1800 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 360 mins 855 128x160-pixel color TFT 240 mins 639 900/1800 65,000-color PolyLED TFT Lithium Ion 240 mins 759 900/1800/1900 128x160-pixel, 65-000-color TFT Lithium Ion 720 mAh 300 mins 755 900/1800/1900 128x160-pixel, 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 720 mAh 300 mins Sagem myX-7 65,536-color myC-3b 900/1800 128x160-pixel, color STN Lithium Ion 750 mAh 240 mins myX3-2 900/1800 4,096-color Lithium Ion 890 mAh 300 mins myX5-2 850/900/1800 65,536-color Samsung SGH-e715 900/1900 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 800 mAh 180 mins SGH-D100 900/1800/1900 160x128-pixel, 65,536-color OLED Lithium Ion 800 mAH 180 mins SGH-E710 900/1800 128x160-pixel, 65,536-color TFT Lithium Ion 900 mAH 330 mins Sendo S600 65,000-color 420 mins M570 65,000-color 300 mins Siemens ST60 65,000-color Lithium Ion CX65 900/1800/1900 65,536-color Lithium Ion 750 mAh 300 mins CF62 900/1800/1900 65,536-color CSTN 300 mins6 May 25, 2004
  7. 7. dataSelected 1Q handset shipments by technology (cont.) Vendor Model Radio frequency (MHz) Display Battery type Battery life Siemens (cont.) C65 800/1800/1900 130x130-pixel, 65,536-color Lithium Ion 600 mAh 300 mins S65 Tri-band 65,536-color TFT 360 mins M65 Tri-band 65,000-color GPRS (cont.) CX66 850/1800/1900 132x176-pixel, 65,000-color Lithium Ion 750 mAh 300 mins C66 800/1800/1900 130x130-pixel, 65,536-color Lithium Ion 600 mAH 270 mins CF63 850/1800/1900 130x130-pixel, 65,000-color STN Lithium Ion 600 mAh 300 mins Sony Ericsson T630 900/1800/1900 65,000-color TFT Lithium Ion 750 mAh 840 mins S700 900/1800/1900 240x320-pixel, 262,000-color TFT 420 mins T237 850/1900 4,096-color Lithium Ion 720 mins K700 900/1800/1900 176x220-pixel, 65,000-color TFT 420 mins T637 850/1800/1900 65,536-color TFT 540 mins Audiovox PPC5050 65,000-color TFT QVGA Lithium Ion 1500mAH 300 mins CDM-8425 800/1900 4,096-color STN CDM-8475 800/1900 4,096-color STN Vox 8610 65,000-color TFT LGElectronics VX-4400B 800/1900 120x160-pixel, 65,000-color STN Lithium Ion 950 mAh 205 mins Motorola T300p 800 1xRTT V65p 800 color V710 800 168x120-pixel color 100 mins Nokia 6255 800/1900/AMPS 128x160-pixel, 65,536-color Lithium Ion 720 mAh 140 mins 3205 800/1900 6012 800/1900 Color 6015i 800/1900 Color Sony Ericsson A5404S 800 240x320-pixel, color TFT 170 mins Fujitsu F900i 2100 262,144-color QVGA TFT 160 mins LGElectronics U8150 260,000-color TFT G7200 External organic EL Motorola E1000 256,000-color QVGA 130 mins WCDMA A1000 Tri band 208x320-pixel, 65,000-color TFT 225 mins A845 Color NEC N900i 2100 65,536-color QVGA TFT 140 mins c313 220x176-pixel, 65,000-color Lithium Ion 1100 mAH 130 mins Panasonic P900i 2100 240x320-pixel, 65,000-color 150 mins Samsung SGH-Z105 262,144-color TFT Sharp SH900i 2100 320x240-pixel, 262,144-color QVGA TFT 140 mins Nokia 6620 850/1800/1900 65,536-color TFT 240 mins EDGE 9500 900/1800/1900 and 850/1800/1900 65,000-color Lithium Ion 1,300 mAh 360 mins 6820 850/1800/1900 128x128-pixel, 4,096-color Lithium Ion 850 mAh 420 mins Sony Ericsson Z500 850/1800/1900 65,536-color 600 mins*GSM/GPRS/1xRTT deviceSource: Mobile Handset AnalystMay 25, 2004 7
  8. 8. business analysisMobile Handset analyst Warren Saunders looks at conformance testing in 3G How to ensure the next generation of devices deliver Deciding whether a phone is function- In GSM and its offshoots, the ing a proliferation of multifeatured de- ing correctly is no simple process. Be- process is completed, and while there vices that take advantage of 3G’s data fore you even start, everyone involved is some work to do in GPRS and communications capabilities, further needs to agree on what “correctly” EDGE (EGPRS), the strong founda- complicating the testing challenges. means. Standards definitions must be tion offered by vanilla 2G means it is For example, advanced 3G handsets flexible enough to allow innovation, mostly tweaks, rather than fundamen- that bring together integrated PDAs, while giving the guidance required to tals. In WCDMA, however, there is digital cameras, color web browsing, enable rapid service launch. still plenty to do, including much that etc., can entail very complex testing re- Such necessary ambiguity leaves the relates to the crucial handover between quirements because of the need to rules open to a degree of interpretation 2G and 3G, the cause of many of 3’s check that the device functions prop- that can cause serious problems, espe- problems at launch in early 2003. It is erly across all possible permutations cially if manufacturers are testing their the job of the standards bodies and fo- and combinations. new handsets against their own infra- rums to define both the test cases and Despite the recent upswing in for- structure. It is therefore critical that an their relative priority – i.e. which ones tunes of the mobile industry, some industrywide independent testing and get written first. It is then up to the commentators are still unconvinced of certification process be put in place, one test-equipment manufacturers to get the future of 3G in the face of forth- that can evolve with the standard and them approved for use as quickly as coming PWLAN services, which are offer a level of confidence for operators possible and deliver them to the hand- likely to offer increased data rates. This launching handsets around the world. set manufacturers and operators. unpredictability has fed a general at- To be effective, test strategies need In the WCDMA arena, this process mosphere of postponement among to thoroughly exercise device designs is still very much ongoing, and at many industry players, in which “wait and functionality across a range of nor- press time there was still no defined and see” has erroneously appeared to be mal and abnormal operating condi- process for certification of 3G hand- the safest choice. tions. In complex communications sets. The handset manufacturers and Whichever way the industry swings, structures, such as 3G systems, this re- the operators must therefore decide it is a safe bet that from a testing perspec- quires explicit testing of protocol how much of a risk they want to take. tive, the loose ends will be largely dealt stacks in hundreds of different specif- And with increasing pressure from with this year, both for WCDMA and in- ic and repeatable situations (see fig.). shareholders desperate for a return on ter-RAT handover-related problems, but This requirement is important across the enormous investments made so it may take some time before it filters the development, conformance and in- far, it is no surprise that services have down into available handsets. teroperability phases of the testing cy- been launched before all the relevant 3G is an evolution, not a revolu- cle, though it is imperative that faults technical problems have been success- tion, and it will take time before all of be identified as early as possible, be- fully ironed out. the problems associated with the tech- cause the later they’re spotted, the The competition to differentiate nology are successfully addressed. The more expensive they are to correct. new 3G product offerings is also driv- industry’s firm understanding of these issues, which were just as prevalent in Growth in test-case numbers GSM, will help expedite the process, but it will probably be two years before Number of test cases Cumulative total 1,400 there is a base on which the industry 1,200 can confidently build the future. Once reached, there will be no time to rest, 900 as the continued evolution of the tech- Test cases 700 700 nology moves toward advances like 600 HSDPA/3.5G and beyond toward 400 3G-to-Wi-Fi handover and myriad ap- 300 300 300 200 200 plications and enhancements. 100 100 Warren Saunders is head of market- 0 GSM-1 GSM-2 GSM-2+ GPRS WCDMA ing at Anite. For more information, Source: Anite please call (44) 1252 775 200 or e-mail warren.saunders@anite.com 8 May 25, 2004
  9. 9. news analysis Mobile Handset analystChipsets part count and size. We note that It offers only LGE’s LP3000 handset forVendors jockeying Freescale and EMP have had some suc- MP3 file downloads. The MP3-enabled cess in the merchant market, Freescale handsets of LGT or KTF cannot alsofor position with Siemens and EMP with LG and we receive music-on-demand content.Michael Thelander – Signals Research believe a major Japanese handset manu- SKT, meanwhile, has sold 250,000“We envision some much needed com- facturer. Over the long term, EMP could IM7200 EV-DO terminals from SKpetition and some likely consolidation, face some pushback from potential cus- Teletech, which can receive and play bothwhile at the same time we believe that it tomers unless it can convince them that MP3 downloads and MoD downloadwill be difficult for any one vendor to it will not give preferential treatment to content, according to SKT representativecompletely dominate the sector. Sony Ericsson. Won Hong-Shik. But there are two ver- “Without exception, Qualcomm is News out of Intel remains few and sions of the IM7200. The first, whichthe perennial favorite for capturing the far between, although there is some launched in early January, requires a soft-most market share, as many consider it good indication that some announce- ware upgrade in order to receive MP3to have the most advanced Release ’99 ments are forthcoming, likely involving content, and Won says SKT has no ideaUMTS solution; its GSM/GPRS/ Taiwanese ODMs and/or some Japan- how many first-version IM7200 handsetEDGE solution is still playing catch up. ese handset manufacturers.” owners have completed the upgrade. “Turning to NEC, all signs still indi- Won says SKT will take a wait-and-cate that the company is struggling with South Korea see attitude toward the 72-hour-limitits handsets on the UMTS standard (its debacle, probably because SKT couldFOMA handsets seem to be fine), al- KTF likely to follow have the largest number of MP3 users inthough its 616 handset does offer a sig- LGT’s free-MP3 crusade the South Korean market, thanks to itsnificantly lower bill of materials than its MOD-MP3 handset interoperability.313 handset. … NEC and Panasonic KTF is considering following LG Tele- “MP3 is ready to become standardare currently working on their next com by offering a service that allows function of all of our models to bechipset, which will be used in their unlimited playback of music files over launched for price tag of Won500,000 orphones and the merchant market, while MP3-enabled handsets after LGT re- higher,” adds Won. KTF also plans toNEC is supposedly moving away from fused to sign up to an agreement limit- add MP3 capability to 70-80% of its newusing the Agere fab. ing the free-play period to 72 hours. models, earmarked to launch in 2H04. “Texas Instruments also continues to KTF, SKT, LG Electronics, Samsung From the vendor perspective, localstruggle with its UMTS development, and the Korean Association of Phono- first-tier handset manufacturers LGE,although it seems to be doing much gram Producers reached a tentative Samsung, Curitel and SK Teletech arebetter with its CDMA development ef- agreement March 18 to restrict maxi- planning to launch numerous high-endfort. LG should have a handset using mum sound quality to 64KB, com- MP3-enabled handset models this year.the TI 1x chipset in India later this year. pared with 128KB for a paid MP3 file. Samsung says that at least of 20 of itsIn particular, one of its first UMTS cus- “If LGT remains unbudged in its 50 new models to be launched this yeartomers – a major Asian handset manu- stance [against imposing the maximum will be MP3-enabled, while LGE rep-facturer – has reportedly dropped plans free playing time of 72 hours], we will resentative Yoon Won-Il says LGT isto use the TI chipset in an upcoming probably also scrap the 72-hour time ready to launch MP3-enabled handsetsphone. Over time, we believe that TI limit from July this year,” said KTF rep- for SKT and KTF in May and June, re-will have a more dominant role in resentative Kim In-Tae. “We may have spectively. Third-ranked handset ven-UMTS, primarily driven by its to follow the lead of LGT, because if we dor Curitel also plans to launch six orGSM/GPRS success and its strong re- continue to deny the no-time-limit seven MP3-enabled terminals in 2004.lationships, but it isn’t there yet. conveniences, we are worried that our In May, LGT plans to launch the “From a compliance perspective, subscribers might leave us [for LGT].” Canyou HS6550 MP3-enabled phone,Freescale and EMP seemingly have very KTF claims to have distributed only which offers a 256MB external memo-strong solutions. Motorola PCS, we 20,000 MP3-enabled 1xEV-DO ter- ry stick that can store up to 60 MP3point out, has several handsets that are minals in the two months to mid-May. music files. The 1xRTT handset, whichcommercially available using the It offers Samsung’s SPH-V4200 for will also feature a 1.34 million-pixelFreescale solution, while a contact famil- Won682,000 (US$581) and Samsung’s CCD built-in camera and FM radioiar with its performance in IOT notes SPH-S1000 for Won594,000, with the streaming, will cost Won600,000. Inthat the performance of the A835 has SPH-V4200 offering an external mem- contrast, most current MP3-enabledcome a long way in the last few months. ory stick. handsets have a storage capacity of onlyThe challenge, especially for EMP and to During the same period, LGT sold 32-128MB, compared with 512MB fora lesser extent for Freescale, is reducing 130,000 MP3-enabled 1xRR handsets. a typical MP3 player.May 25, 2004 9
  10. 10. sector profileMobile Handset analyst JAVA Fragmentation threatens to stall growing Java-handset market The media’s attention on the impending launch billion downloads, or 85% of the sector, in 2003. ARC ex- pects that level to be maintained for the next five years, fore- of 3G services worldwide and the relative dis- casting overall Java entertainment downloads to rise from 4.3 appointment of WAP have played substantial billion events in 2003 to just over 50 billion by 2008. In term of revenues, ARC Group estimates that Java mar- roles in boosting Java, heralding it as the de ket earned operators almost US$1.4 billion in 2003, a figure facto enabling technology for wireless data it forecasts will jump dramatically to more than US$15.5 bil- services, writes Malik Kamal-Saadi. lion by 2008. The numbers equate to about 3% of all data revenues in 2003, rising to 12.4% by 2008. Removing per- Handsets equipped with Java tripled in number in 2003, son-to-person messaging revenues as an application catego- reaching sales of 95.5 million in 2003, up from 32 million in ry from both the total and Java markets is estimated to leave 2002. Java is already well entrenched in the handset market Java with a 10.7% share of total revenues in the remaining worldwide, with key markets being South Korea and Japan. categories in 2003, increasing to 27.4% by 2008 – a fair re- Java-enabled CDMA phones dominate the South Korean turn for Java applications in the contents categories. market, and in Japan more than half of handsets in circula- Since 2000, many venture-capital companies have rushed tion are already Java-enabled. to market Java because they thought it would be lucrative and Today, despite the proliferation of Java handsets worldwide would induce a high return on investment. The wireless Java and the increasing number of vendor models containing the market has secured a level of financing of about US$15 bil- platform, the number of actual Java users is significantly low- lion, but total revenues from wireless Java services are not fore- er. There are some very stark regional differences in this analy- cast to reach US$15 billion before 2006 or 2007. Thus, the sis, since in Japan and South Korea it is believed that about global market for wireless Java will take another two to three four-fifths of all Java handsets sold in 2003 led to active Java years to achieve a certain level of profitability. ARC Group says users. In Europe, the opposite is understood to be the case, that if the wireless Java market starts to be largely overfunded, with only about 10% of handsets sold leading to active users. it might take even longer for investors to realize their ROI. The promise of Java has been mainly to serve the mobile entertainment market, with the sector forming 76% of total Open or proprietary? Java application volumes in 2003, according to research One of the advantages of Java technology is its openness, which house ARC Group. By 2008, however, the figure is expected has helped convince more than 500 companies to contribute to fall to about 40% because of increased use of Java-based to different expert groups under the Java Community Process. messaging platforms. As might be expected, games provided But that advantage is being depleted. More than 260 Java spec- the most use in the entertainment sector, with volumes of 3.6 ifications requests (JSRs) have been initiated by the leading play- ers, which generally aim first and foremost to benefit their own Fig. 1: Market opportunities for different Java profiles technologies rather than help the Java industry improve as a whole. The high number of JSRs has made Java one of the most VSCL fragmented technologies in the history of the data industry. As 2003 2008 DoJA a result, tool vendors cannot easily take advantage of standard APIs when building functionality into their tools and often cre- MIDP ate proprietary techniques to achieve the benefits the standards were originally created to address. CDC CLDC In addition, the great number of companies – most often rivals – involved in standardizing different JSRs has made the Low-end Mid-range High-end 2008 standardization process relatively slow. For example, the spec- ification for MIDP2.0 profile was released 20 months after the initial proposal, and the first devices implementing the Low-end Mid-range High-end 2003 profile were available four months later. The sluggishness of Source: ARC Group the standardization process has pushed many players, includ- ing NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone, to initiate their10 May 25, 2004
  11. 11. sector profile Mobile Handset analystown implementations to speed up time to market – a trendthat has made Java even more fragmented, since several im- Fig. 2: Evolution path of Java and WAP servicesplementations exist concurrently. Implementations exist basedon JCP profiles such as CLDC1.0, CLDC1.1, MIDP1.0, Java WAPMIDP2.0 and CDC and proprietary implementations suchas NTT DoCoMo’s DoJa for i-mode services (see fig. 1), Service deploymentVodafone’s VSCL and JSCL and KDDI’s ezplus in Japan. While JCP profiles are adhered to by almost all devicemanufacturers worldwide, DoJa is only implemented byJapanese manufacturers. These manufacturers have initiallydesigned their Java i-mode handsets to work over PDC net-works in Japan. Consequently, Java i-mode handsets they of-fer are not particularly well optimized for European servicesthat use GSM network. Vodafone, on the other hand, is ded- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010icating the JSCL profile to work on PDC networks in Japan Source: ARC Groupand VSCL, a modified version of JSCL, to work in the GSMenvironment. sumers a flawless mobile web-surfing experience and ad- On top of the diversity of Java profiles, there is also a grow- vanced wireless data services, but it did not materialize, be-ing concern about Java virtual machines (VM) fragmentation. cause the content was not compelling enough to attractAs the number of commercially available optimized VMs has users in sufficient volumes.increased, so has it become apparent that applications will The Java community has much to learn from the WAPwork slightly differently on different VMs. This is not to sug- experience and should strive to ease the way for applicationsgest that applications will not function at all on different VMs. developers, a condition that is vital if the technology is toAny certified VM will have undergone the Java compatibili- succeed. Without such efforts, the fragmentation of the Javaty test and is therefore guaranteed to function, though no such market; the problems of applications portability, togetherguarantees when it comes to clean-room implementations. with the poor performance of Java applications comparedBut compatibility is a problem for application performance with native applications; and the lack of support for appli-and could affect the user experience, which is a focus of Java cations other than games could all limit the use of Java intechnology. Therefore, developers need to be careful that the the future.functionality central to an application is appropriate to the In addition, the wireless Java industry is facing toughVM on which it is being implemented. For example, a VM competition from within, as well as from other technolo-better at handling graphics than a competitor is will be better gies, such as BREW and advanced OSes. In order to re-for applications such as games. Similarly, a memory-intensive main competitive and win market share, playersapplication will function better on a VM that emphasizes throughout the supply chain will have to maintain attrac-memory-management techniques. tive price points while differentiating their products. They The fragmentation of Java technology makes it difficult will thus need to reduce their margins if they want to re-to build sustainable models for developing applications main competitive. Leading device vendors and wireless net-that can be ported through a variety of handset device work suppliers are still using proprietary technologies andmodels and operators services. Indeed, an application will will not outsource alternatives unless they can save moneyrun only on devices featuring the same profile. For exam- and reduce time to market. Such an approach has led tople, porting an application from a MIDP-based profile to strong pressure on pricing, challenging competitors andJava i-mode or other non-Java-based technology, such as pushing them to either align themselves or lose share ifMicrosoft or Symbian OSes or even CDC, has proved to they want to maintain margins.be an extremely hard task. Java fragmentation makes it dif- As has been the case for many hyped technologies before,ficult for service providers because deploying a wireless data the wireless Java industry must undergo rapid consolidation.service based on different implementations is not easy to It is a trend that is already happening in many segments ofmanage and significantly increases both operational costs the supply chain, and industry players will be forced to cre-and customers’ management costs. In addition, the issue ate partnerships and collaborate to cover overall wireless Javaof application portability is slowing down developers’ in- service delivery in a more efficient and effective way in ordervolvement. Therefore, until a clear standard is presented, to survive.there is a danger that wireless Java take-up will be slower Malik Kamal-Saadi is co-author of Mobile Applicationthan in its early deployment. Platforms and Operating Systems 2003-2008, published It seems that Java is undergoing the same experience in March by ARC Group. For more information, please seeWAP did in its early years (see fig. 2). WAP promised con- www.arcgroup.com/maposMay 25, 2004 11
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