Public Service 2022 Mark Callanan

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  • Public Service 2022 Mark Callanan

    1. 1. Responding to a Changing Environment - Insights from Public Service 2022 … Mark Callanan Institute of Public Administration Presentation to Diploma in Management of the Public Service 28 th November 2008
    2. 2. A Short History of Accelerating Change Source: Acceleration Studies Foundation Internet / E-Mail 1 Computer 2 Television 3 Radio 4 Telephone 5 Accurate Clocks 16 Printing 24 Universities 40 Libraries 400 Writing 500 Agriculture 750 Speech 100,000 Generations Ago
    3. 3. <ul><li>Government is often obsessed by short-term and ‘reactive’ attitudes. It is affected by the pressure of public opinion and the media who demand quick solutions to problems. One of the greatest challenges for government is to balance short-term pressures and long-term objectives. Many areas of public policy, such as ageing, health, education, urban infrastructure, and the environment, can only be addressed adequately over the long term – OECD Review of Irish Public Service </li></ul>
    4. 4. Why a Futures Project? <ul><li>Early warning of possible changes </li></ul><ul><li>Spotting opportunities earlier and dealing with problems when they are easier to fix </li></ul><ul><li>Technique increasingly used in Private and Public sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario Building – Thinking About Plausible and Alternative Versions of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Fostering Inspiration and Imagination on Longer-Term Issues </li></ul><ul><li>Avoiding immediate concerns with the ‘feasibility’ </li></ul><ul><li>Thinking about, Preparing for, and Having answers ready for different Eventualities </li></ul><ul><li>Ignoring Old Demarcations – usually outside our ‘comfort zone’ and beyond our job spec </li></ul>
    5. 5. Source: Clem Bezold, IAF
    6. 6. <ul><li>Sean Dorgan (Chair) </li></ul><ul><li>David Begg </li></ul><ul><li>Prof John Benington </li></ul><ul><li>Gillian Bowler </li></ul><ul><li>John Cullen </li></ul><ul><li>Prof Brendan Drumm </li></ul><ul><li>Alan Dukes </li></ul><ul><li>Prof John Fitzgerald </li></ul><ul><li>Dr Maureen Gaffney </li></ul><ul><li>Dr Mary Kelly </li></ul><ul><li>Dermot McCarthy </li></ul><ul><li>Martin Mansergh TD </li></ul><ul><li>Ann McGuinness </li></ul><ul><li>Prof John Murray </li></ul><ul><li>Prof Iognáid Ó Muircheartaigh </li></ul><ul><li>Julie O’Neill </li></ul><ul><li>Ruairí Quinn TD </li></ul><ul><li>Eddie Sullivan </li></ul><ul><li>Paddy Wright </li></ul>Project Advisory Board
    7. 7. Elements within the Project <ul><li>Terms of Reference – Oct. 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Horizon scanning’ to identify core drivers of change that will impact on public service provision – Late 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Retrospective Analysis, Research on Public Perceptions, and Initial Drivers of Change – Jan. 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Workshops and Interviews – March to May 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario Building, including Economic Forecast based on ‘No Policy Change’ – late-2006 and early 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>How ready are we to meet these alternative futures? – early 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Completion and Launch – Nov. 2007 </li></ul>
    8. 8. Demographic Drivers of Change <ul><li>Increasing Population and New Profiles </li></ul><ul><li>A Multicultural Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>An Ageing Population </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial Patterns – Counteracting the dominance of Dublin? </li></ul>
    9. 9. Societal Drivers of Change <ul><li>Changing Societal Values and Attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>‘ What’s the bottom line?’ – a ‘results-oriented’ clientele, who will go elsewhere if not happy </li></ul><ul><li>A more individualistic and hedonistic society? </li></ul><ul><li>Greater demands for transparency and accountability </li></ul><ul><li>Breakdown of cultural barriers with greater mobility, but ethnic tensions never far away? </li></ul>
    10. 10. Environmental Drivers of Change <ul><li>Energy Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Natural or man-made environmental disasters remain a possibility </li></ul>
    11. 11. Technological Drivers of Change <ul><li>The Pace of Change is Bewildering </li></ul><ul><li>Life-long learning to ‘keep up’ </li></ul><ul><li>Communication easier and cheaper </li></ul><ul><li>Help and a hindrance? </li></ul><ul><li>Portfolio careers </li></ul><ul><li>The knowledge economy has great potential, but could also accentuate inequalities </li></ul>
    12. 12. Economic Drivers of Change <ul><li>Current medium-term forecast is for stagnation in short-term, followed by steady economic growth, with a number of ‘ifs’ </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation – international flows of trade, goods, services, capital, and people </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical balances, north/south, migration </li></ul><ul><li>Relentless and dynamic competition, or ‘take a break’ </li></ul><ul><li>Services sector as the mainstay of employment </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction in numbers employed in traditional manufacturing and agriculture expected </li></ul>
    13. 13. New Balance of Economic Activity Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers (relative to US = 100; purchasing power parity is assumed to remain constant) 143 76 China 100 30 India 61 69 EU (incl. Turkey) 100 100 US GDP 2050 GDP 2005 Country / Region
    14. 14. Workplace Drivers of Change <ul><li>Changing work patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Changing workforce </li></ul><ul><li>A more competitive workplace </li></ul><ul><li>Organisations becoming flatter? </li></ul><ul><li>Corporate loyalty as a thing of the past? </li></ul>
    15. 15. Governance Drivers of Change(1) <ul><li>What is the future role of the state as a provider of services? – Step Up or Step Back? </li></ul><ul><li>Greater demands to hold political and administrative actors ‘to account’ for decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Absolute accountability vs. Innovation and risk in the public service </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity in the public sector </li></ul><ul><li>Mass production (efficiency) or tailoring services to the needs of the individual (quality) </li></ul>
    16. 16. Governance Drivers of Change(2) <ul><li>Demands for greater effectiveness and coordination across different levels and agencies of government </li></ul><ul><li>More complexity in policy-making </li></ul><ul><li>Locus of policy making </li></ul><ul><li>Role of the Media – Government by ‘Liveline’ </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-active or re-active? </li></ul><ul><li>Institutional Boundaries </li></ul>
    17. 17. Ireland and the Public Service in 2022 – Scenarios <ul><li>Liberty and Individualism </li></ul><ul><li>Islands of Empires </li></ul><ul><li>Fattened Geese </li></ul><ul><li>Italification of Ireland </li></ul>
    18. 18. Perspectives (External) <ul><li>Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ – is it ready for different eventualities, challenges, opportunities? </li></ul><ul><li>What choices lie ahead? </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Life </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Performance </li></ul><ul><li>Physical and Social Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Governance and Democracy </li></ul>
    19. 19. Perspectives (Internal) <ul><li>Is the public service ‘fit for purpose’ – is it ready for different eventualities, challenges, opportunities? </li></ul><ul><li>What choices lie ahead? </li></ul><ul><li>Political domain </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Service </li></ul><ul><li>Local Government </li></ul><ul><li>Health Service </li></ul>
    20. 20. Orthodoxies that need challenging <ul><li>Context – ensuring public service is well positioned to cope with challenges ahead and respond to future demand </li></ul><ul><li>The centre can do and control everything  Empowering the front line and more flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Every problem needs a new agency </li></ul><ul><li>The public service is only about service delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Ministers are responsible for everything </li></ul><ul><li>Some in-built rigidities in the system are ‘off-limits’ </li></ul>
    21. 21. <ul><li>It is not the strongest species that survive, nor is it the most intelligent, but those most adaptive to change – Charles Darwin </li></ul>
    22. 23. <ul><li>Thank you for your attention! </li></ul><ul><li>Mark Callanan </li></ul><ul><li>Institute of Public Administration </li></ul><ul><li>57-61 Lansdowne Road </li></ul><ul><li>Dublin 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>Tel: +353.1.2403632 </li></ul><ul><li>Fax: +353.1.6689135 </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Web: www.ipa.ie </li></ul><ul><li>Project Website: www.publicservice2022.ie </li></ul>
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