Managing the recovery challenge in Sudan
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Humanitarian and development situation in Sudan and analysis of the aid operations, with a focus on the South (Ameerah Haq, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General and UN Resident and ...

Humanitarian and development situation in Sudan and analysis of the aid operations, with a focus on the South (Ameerah Haq, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General and UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, December 2009).

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Managing the recovery challenge in Sudan Presentation Transcript

  • 1. United Nations Sudan Managing the recovery challenge in Sudan Dec-09 Slide 1
  • 2. United Nations Sudan Contents A. The recovery challenge B. Sudan’s situation in perspective Aid profile Basic needs Governance and state capacity Security in the South C. Key priorities for 2010 and beyond Dec-09 Slide 2
  • 3. United Nations Sudan A. The recovery challenge Dec-09 Slide 3
  • 4. United Nations Sudan The importance of getting the timing right Aid flows in post-conflict situations $ Time Humanitarian aid Development aid • Life-saving, short-term The recovery • Poverty-reducing, long- action challenge term support • Based on neutrality, • Led by national actors independence and Resources and priorities impartiality • Based on Paris Declaration principles t -2 t0 t +2 t +4 years Source: United Nations Sudan Dec-09 Slide 4
  • 5. United Nations Sudan Managing the recovery challenge Six key interventions in post-conflict environments 1 Assess the needs 2 Improve basic services visibly 6 Manage expectations Key 3 Make people feel safe interventions 5 Build state capacity quickly 4 Ensure good governance Dec-09 Slide 5
  • 6. United Nations Sudan B. Sudan’s situation in perspective Aid profile Dec-09 Slide 6
  • 7. United Nations Sudan Aid flows to Liberia Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million Development aid as share of total 1,000 100% 75% 750 50% 25% 500 0% 1995 2001 2007 250 Humanitarian Development 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs Dec-09 Slide 7
  • 8. United Nations Sudan Aid flows to Afghanistan Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million Development aid as share of total 100% 4,000 75% 50% 3,000 25% Humanitarian 2,000 0% 1995 2001 2007 Development 1,000 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs Dec-09 Slide 8
  • 9. United Nations Sudan Aid flows to the Democratic Republic of Congo Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million Development aid as share of total 6,000 100% 75% 5,000 50% 4,000 25% 3,000 0% 1995 2001 2007 2,000 Humanitarian Development 1,000 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs Dec-09 Slide 9
  • 10. United Nations Sudan Aid flows to Sudan Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million Development aid as share of total 2,750 100% 75% 2,200 50% Humanitarian 1,650 25% 0% 1995 2001 2007 1,100 550 Development 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs Dec-09 Slide 10
  • 11. United Nations Sudan B. Sudan’s situation in perspective Aid profile Basic needs Dec-09 Slide 11
  • 12. United Nations Sudan Sudan’s human development indicators have improved Improvement in Sudan’s Human Development Index compared to its peer group in 2000 HDI Change (2000=100) +10% Bangladesh Nigeria Papua New G. +8% Sudan (HDI 2000=0.491; 2007=0.531=150/180) Haiti Ghana +6% Mauritania +4% Malawi +2% Timor-Leste Cote d’Ivoire 100 to 2000 relative 1999 2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2009, countries with human development index values higher than 0.46 and lower than 0.5 in 2000, 2000 = 100 Dec-09 Slide 12
  • 13. United Nations Sudan Overall, Sudan’s economy is growing quickly Nominally, per capita incomes (PPP) doubled in Africa since 1985, but tripled in Sudan 300 Developing countries 250 200 Africa Sudan 150 relative to 1985 100 1985 =100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2009) Dec-09 Slide 13
  • 14. United Nations Sudan Sudan’s population is growing faster than the region’s From 1983 to 2008 Sudan’s population rose from 19m to 39m. It will reach 52m in 2020. Est. level of urbanization in Sudan Sudan 60% 200 40% 180 20% 0% Africa 160 -20% 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 140 Northern Africa 120 to 1983 relative 100 1980 1983=100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, US Census Bureau (International Database), www.ssrc.org for urbanization Dec-09 Slide 14
  • 15. United Nations Sudan Different challenges in a vast country A country the size of a continent Challenges by region • Darfur: IDP return, hum. aid to 4.7m NL people, community level recovery • East: forgotten crisis, protracted refugee France Rwanda situation, health crisis • Three Areas: PCA, Misseryia migration, Burundi recovery/conflict resolution • South: budget pressure, tribal conflict, food crisis, protection • National: CPA milestones, GoSS and Afghanistan Zimbabwe GNU cooperation, Darfur peace process Sierra Leone Area comparatives (1:1) 0 200 500km Dec-09 Slide 15
  • 16. United Nations Sudan Extreme regional differences Net primary school attendance (%) Net primary school att. (bottom 10, world) South 100 North and rest Somalia 22% 80 Chad 36% 60 Niger 38% 40 Liberia 40% 20 Ethiopia 45% 0 Burkina Faso 47% Eritrea 47% Haiti 50% Guinea 51% Congo, Dem. R. 52% Darfur Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006) Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009) Dec-09 Slide 16
  • 17. United Nations Sudan Extreme regional differences Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births) Maternal mortality (bottom 10, world) South 2,500 North and rest Sierra Leone 2,100 2,000 Afghanistan 1,800 1,500 Niger 1,800 1,000 Chad 1,500 500 Angola 1,400 0 Somalia 1,400 Rwanda 1,300 Liberia 1,200 Burundi 1,100 Congo, Dem. R. 1,100 Darfur Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006) Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009) Dec-09 Slide 17
  • 18. United Nations Sudan Extreme regional differences Access to improved sanitation (%) Access to sanitation (bottom 10, world) South 100 North and rest Eritrea 5% 80 Niger 7% 60 Chad 9% 40 Ghana 10% 20 Ethiopia 11% 0 Sierra Leone 11% Madagascar 12% Togo 12% Burkina Faso 13% Guinea 19% Darfur Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006) Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009) Dec-09 Slide 18
  • 19. United Nations Sudan Extreme regional differences Infant mortality in Sudan (per 1,000) Infant mortality (bottom 10, world) South* 160 North and rest Afghanistan 165 120 Sierra Leone 155 80 Chad 124 40 Equatorial Guinea 124 Guinea-Bissau 118 0 1993 Mali 117 2006 Angola 116 Mozambique 115 CAR 113 Rwanda 109 * State-level data not available Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006), National Census (1993) Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009) Dec-09 Slide 19
  • 20. United Nations Sudan Social services receive insufficient public funds Composition of GOSS public expenditure in 2008 Accountability Rule of law $300m (11.5%) $236m (9.0%) Public administration Infrastructure $235m (9.0%) $373m (14.2%) Transfers $207m (7.9%) Education $133m (5.1%) Rural dev. / environ. $90m (3.4%) Economic functions $89m (3.4%) Health $52m (2.0%) Security Social affairs $862m (32.9%) $39m (1.5%) Source: Government of Southern Sudan, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (01/2009) Dec-09 Slide 20
  • 21. United Nations Sudan Most aid to Sudan is humanitarian. Most of it is food. Food aid, agriculture and early recovery as a share of total humanitarian aid 100% 100% Food aid 59% 75% ($684m) 50% 50% Early recovery 25% 5% Agriculture ($58m) 0%0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Service (10/2009), dotted line indicates data not available Dec-09 Slide 21
  • 22. United Nations Sudan B. Sudan’s situation in perspective Aid profile Basic needs Governance and state capacity Dec-09 Slide 22
  • 23. United Nations Sudan Rise in public revenue challenges state capacity Government revenue by source (billion $) Transfers to the South (billion $) 12 3.0 10 2.5 Other (incl. oil) 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 Taxes 2 0.5 0 0.0 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Sudan Ministry of Finance, IMF Staff-monitored programme, International Financial Statistics Dec-09 Slide 23
  • 24. United Nations Sudan Weak government institutions Government effectiveness Control of corruption South Africa South Africa Ghana Ghana Ethiopia Ethiopia Kenya Cameroon Cameroon Nigeria Nigeria Kenya Cote d'Ivoire Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea Sudan Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Percentile rank Sudan Percentile rank 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009) Dec-09 Slide 24
  • 25. United Nations Sudan Weak government institutions Regulatory quality Rule of law South Africa South Africa Ghana Ghana Kenya Ethiopia Nigeria Kenya Cameroon Cameroon Ethiopia Nigeria Cote d'Ivoire Sudan Guinea Cote d'Ivoire Sudan Guinea Zimbabwe Percentile rank Zimbabwe Percentile rank 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009) Dec-09 Slide 25
  • 26. United Nations Sudan Low share of aid devoted to capacity building Institutional capacity building as a share of total foreign assistance 100% 100% 100% Afghanistan Dem. Republic of Congo Sudan 75% 75% 75% 50% 50% 50% 25% 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 1995 2001 2007 1995 2001 2007 1995 2001 2007 100% 100% 100% Sierra Leone Liberia Iraq 75% 75% 75% 50% 50% 50% 25% 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 1995 2001 2007 1995 2001 2007 1995 2001 2007 Source: OECD CRS (10/2009), Commitments (curr. USD), Aid for purposes of institutional and government capacity building, training, research (DAC codes ending 10, 81, 82, ...) Dec-09 Slide 26
  • 27. United Nations Sudan B. Sudan’s situation in perspective Aid profile Basic needs Governance and state capacity Security in the South Dec-09 Slide 27
  • 28. United Nations Sudan Renewed tensions in Southern Sudan Clashes, intertribal conflict, LRA incursions More than 332,000 displaced in 2009 122 58 31 76 0.8 2.4 25 Major clashes 21 LRA 14 activity Intertribal conflict IDPs 0 200 500km Dec-09 Slide 28
  • 29. United Nations Sudan C. Key priorities for 2010 and beyond Dec-09 Slide 29
  • 30. United Nations Sudan Key priorities for 2010 and beyond What we have to get right 5 Save lives 4 Strengthen governance • Coordinate response to acute crises • Create accountability frameworks • Ensure essential services and safety nets • Review and clean up public pay rolls • Avoid that humanitarian aid substitutes for • Strengthen public financial mgt. lack of recovery and development • Juba compact 6 Recovery challenge in Darfur Key 2 Build state capacity interventions • Continue humanitarian action, but seek • Build capacity to plan, coordinate and recovery local recovery opportunities deliver assistance at state level • Mobilize recovery and development • Rapid capacity placement actors and funding now • Capacity development working group 1 Help stabilize and secure 3 Lay foundations for recovery • Mitigate conflicts and reduce threats • Fast-track MDG achievement • Focus UN support on CPA milestones • Support transition to government-led • Coordinate with UNAMID, UNMIS, JMST development. Dec-09 Slide 30
  • 31. United Nations Sudan Darfur: make the integration with UNAMID work Dec-09 | Prepared by Kersten Jauer and Melanie Hauenstein Slide 31