CAR: Fragile progress

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Comprehensive briefing on the humanitarian and development situation in the Central African Republic (Toby Lanzer, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, recurring use in several versions in 2007/08)

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CAR: Fragile progress

  1. 1. CAR: Fragile progress Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team Central African Republic (CAR) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 1
  2. 2. Landlocked in the volatile centre of Africa Chad Sudan Nigeria Darfur CAR Cameroon DRC Congo Uganda Gabon Rebellion or internal conflict Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2
  3. 3. Desperately poor… Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day 73 70 67 64 61 61 59 Mali Nigeria CAR Zambia Niger Burkina Faso Gambia Source: World Bank (2002) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 3
  4. 4. No development progress in more than two decades One of only two LDCs in Africa with a falling human development indicator Human Development Index (HDI) Growth, Base = 100 (1985) +45% Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mozambique, Chad, Ethiopia CAR DRC +30% +15% 100 -15% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: HDR (2007) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 4
  5. 5. Gap between CAR and Africa is widening Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 20% in CAR, but doubled in Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985) Sub-Saharan Africa +100% CAR +80% +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: IMF (2007) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 5
  6. 6. MDGs Cost of reaching the MDGs: $5.3 billion Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half MDG 75% 67% Current trend 62% 50% 31% 25% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Human Development Report (2006) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 6
  7. 7. MDGs Reaching the MDGs an enormous challenge Maternal mortality rate highly unlikely to decrease by three quarters MDG 1,600 Current trend 1,355 1,200 949 683 800 400 171 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Human Development Report (2006) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 7
  8. 8. MDGs Reaching the MDGs an enormous challenge Highly unlikely that all children will benefit from primary education MDG 100% Current trend 75% 58% 60% 50% 55% 49% 25% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Human Development Report (2006) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 8
  9. 9. PROTECTION The pattern of violence changes Intense conflict in the north from mid 2006 to mid 2007 Refugee camp Am Timan Border Prefecture Birao Town / settlement Road Road banditry Intense conflict Sam-Ouandja Severe attacks / burning Ndélé Gore Wau UN Kaga-Bandoro UN UN Bossangoa UN Bozoum UN Obo UN Bangui 500 km Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 9
  10. 10. PROTECTION The pattern of violence changes Lower-level instability, road banditry and foreign incursions from mid 2007 to mid 2008 Refugee camp Am Timan Border Prefecture Birao Town / settlement Road Road banditry Fragile zones UN Sam-Ouandja Severe attacks / burning Ndélé Gore Wau UN Paoua UN Kaga-Bandoro UN UN Bossangoa UN Bozoum UN UN Obo UN Bangui 500 km Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 10
  11. 11. PROTECTION Refugees, IDPs and Returnees – September 2008 3 SUDAN CHAD 17 50 DARFUR 3 4 Vakaga 3 56 23 8 0 25 12 Bamingui- 5 5 Bangoran 45 10 Haute-Kotto Nana- 15 5 Ouham- Grébizi CAMEROON 10 Pendé Ouham Haut- Mbomou Nana- 5 0 Mambéré Bangui IDPs Returnees Refugees since 2005 since 2005 since 2002 in thousands in thousands in thousands DRC 10 8 CONGO Source: HDPT CAR (September 2008) * Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here. Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 11
  12. 12. PROTECTION Better access reveals full scale of suffering Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 12
  13. 13. PROTECTION Bandits endanger recovery and return Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 13
  14. 14. PROTECTION Armed groups are still using children Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 14
  15. 15. HEALTH GBV scars society Gender and GBV situation disturbing 1,000 GBV cases on 48 km in 6 months • Women in urban areas twice as likely to suffer from HIV/AIDS than men* Kabo • Over 14% of women in urban areas have been subjected to sexual violence** • GBV project assisted 1,000 victims of sexual violence on 48 km stretch in conflict-affected area in 6 months Batangafo Ouandago • Maternal mortality rate among world’s highest (1,102 per 100,000) • Illiteracy among women 68% (men 46%) Kaga-Bandoro City / large settlement Road * Infection rate 11% for women against 5% for men Burnt settlement ** CAR Govt. Briefing paper on Gender (2007) GBV project zone (project duration = 6 months) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 15
  16. 16. HEALTH Health system struggles to cope with epidemics Health quick facts Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08 • 76% of population live more than 10 km Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro from nearest health centre Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé • Life expectancy fell from 49 years in Typhoid* in Nana-Mambéré 1988 to 43 years in 2003 • 56% of births (~50,000) not assisted • Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000 • Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000 • Malaria leading cause of morbidity (40%) and mortality (14%) Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto Polio in Bangui Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) * disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 16
  17. 17. HEALTH Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and diarrhea are main killers Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 17
  18. 18. HEALTH Fighting child and maternal mortality Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 18
  19. 19. HEALTH Focus HIV/AIDS The highest prevalence rate in the region HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in % • 6.2% of the population (15-49 years old) 10.7 HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in 8.4 7.4 some prefectures 2.6 4.1 • Women significantly more affected, with 3.1 13.6 4.2 7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men 7.3 • Prevalence roughly twice as high in 3.6 7.2 urban areas as in rural areas. 7.8 3.1 3.2 6.9 6.3 • Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by HIV/AIDS Top 7 regions by total Women Men Total • Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9% Haut-Mbomou 13.5 13.8 13.6 Bamingui-Bangoran 15.1 6.0 10.7 Nana-Gribizi 11.4 4.9 8.4 Bangui 10.3 5.1 7.8 Haute-Kotto 8.3 6.4 7.4 Ombella-M’Poko 9.8 4.5 7.3 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) Mambéré-Kadéï 10.6 3.2 7.2 Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 19
  20. 20. HEALTH Joining forces to halt the spread of the disease Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 20
  21. 21. WATER Millions without access to safe drinking water Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10) • Most water pumps destroyed or Mali 46 in disrepair Sierra L. 39 • Access to safe drinking water at only 26% of population Guinea-B. 35 • About 73% of population without Mozambique 32 access to improved sanitation DRC 30 facilities CAR 27 • Open-air defecation common Burkina F. 13 • No waste management system Niger 13 Ethiopia 13 Chad 9 Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08 Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08 Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 21
  22. 22. WATER Drinking water a health hazard Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 22
  23. 23. FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE Food security paradox: fertile soils and malnutrition Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 23
  24. 24. FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE Agricultural sector in disarray Cotton production down by 90%, coffee down by 80% since peaks in the late 1990s Cotton 70 14 Coffee Coffee 60 12 50 10 40 8 Cotton 30 6 20 4 10 2 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Central African Central Bank (BEAC, www.beac.int) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 24
  25. 25. FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE Seeds and tools needed now Food security and agriculture quick facts Children suffer: severely retarded growth • Global acute malnutrition for children 30% under 5 years at 10% • Global moderate malnutrition rate 25% 20 percent higher than in 1995 20% • 15 million ha arable land but only 600,000 ha cultivated 15% • 94% of farming is subsistence farming • Agricultural production in the north came 10% to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools 5% Months 9 18 30 42 54 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 25
  26. 26. EDUCATION One of the world’s weakest educational systems Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa • Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education, 100 almost 50% below African average 92 • Primary enrolment rates have not 83 improved in 15 years 80 72 66 • Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary 63 62 education 60 • Almost 50% of teachers are parents • Only 32% of pupils completed basic 40 primary education in 2005 • Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32% 20 for women CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 26
  27. 27. EDUCATION Bush schools: helping communities take action Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 27
  28. 28. LOGISTICS Broken infrastructure continues to hamper access Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 28
  29. 29. LOGISTICS As operation grows, logistics challenges increase Logistics quick facts Road accessibility and distances from Bangui • Landlocked country, only 700 km of roads with good accessibility Birao: 1,073 km • Rainy season left all roads in SUDAN CHAD complete disrepair Ndélé: 718 km Sam Ouandja: 910 km • Only 7 fuel stations in the field Kaga-Bandoro: 330 km • UNHAS vital: 2,300 passengers Bossangoa: 300 km in 2008 to date; 82% of cargo for Bouar: 447 km Bria: 579 km NGOs Bambari: 374 km Sibut: 179 km • Airstrips need to be rehabilitated Bangui • Lowest ranking country for ease of ‘trading across borders’ Minor road Good Difficult DRC Very Poor Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Transport, World Bank (2007), UNHAS UN Depot Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 29
  30. 30. LOGISTICS Air service remains key tool in logistics struggle Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 30
  31. 31. LOGISTICS Small-scale road rehabilitation projects begin Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 31
  32. 32. Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2009 Central African people expect government and donors to deliver Inclusive Security Political Sector Dialogue Reform Poverty Reduction Strategy & Humanitarian Action Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 32
  33. 33. PEACE PROCESS Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 33
  34. 34. PEACE PROCESS Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace Laying the groundwork Risks and threats to progress • Bilateral peace agreements signed by • Opposition groups have left the the government and the FDPC, UFDR negotiation table due to disagreement and APRD in Feb 07, Apr 07 and May 08 over amnesty provisions • Broadly representative preparatory • Cease-fire arrangements have been committee presented action plan for disrespected inclusive political dialogue in Apr 08 • FDPC has not yet signed the • Comprehensive peace agreeement comprehensive peace agreeement signed by the government and the UFDR • Signatories of the peace accords cannot and APRD in Libreville in June 08 always control operations of their men • Regional mediation offers international on the ground recognition and improves neutrality Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 34
  35. 35. PEACE PROCESS EUFOR and MINURCAT support stability in the north-east Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 35
  36. 36. PEACE PROCESS EU/UN Peacekeeping Force overview MINURCAT EUFOR: 2,700 deployed / 3,700 troops in total • UN Mission, Security Council authorized • One-year mandate 1,558+78 (60%) France • 300 police, 50 military liaison officers (total) 378+19 Ireland • Training of police forces and support to govt. 311+6 Sweden in dealing with regional crisis 151+4 Austria EUFOR Chad/CAR 113+6 Belgium • EU peacekeeping force, UN authorized 107+4 Italy • One-year mandate, starting from Initial 83+6 Operating Capability (reached in March 2008) Poland • 3,700 troops under Irish command – Biggest 61+2 Finland multinational EU military operation in Africa 29+3 Netherlands • Protect civilians, facilitate humanitarian aid delivery, and ensure UN personnel’s safety Source: News sources as of May 2008 Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 36
  37. 37. SECURITY SECTOR REFORM Security sector reform: key to future stability Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 37
  38. 38. SECURITY SECTOR REFORM Security and development intricately linked Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements • Forces armées centrafricaines (FACA), the national army, counts roughly 5,000 National soldiers (over 10% over retirement age) army • Impunity of armed forces has been a powerful factor for internal displacement Police and Customs Gendarmerie • Gendarmerie has a personnel of 1,800 – for a country larger than France SSR • Police force has lost 60% of its staff since 1981, with roughly 1,350 officers active Good Justice • Customs Service has only 396 staff Governance system • Virtually none of the services have the required equipment or training Intelligence • Salary arrears impede performance Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 38
  39. 39. SECURITY SECTOR REFORM Progress on security sector reform A gateway to stability Risks and need for action • Attempt to mould security forces into • Failure would signal to armed forces to professional organizations under continue to act with impunity democratic control • Failure could discredit and isolate the • Government is cooperative, working government from international support with many partners, facilitated by UNDP • Follow-up and continued donor • Landmark SSR seminar held in April engagement is key after April seminar 2008, kick-starting process and outlining concrete actions for next two years. Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 39
  40. 40. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY Poverty Reduction Strategy: development or disillusionment Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 40
  41. 41. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR • Sept 2007: Paris Declaration • Ownership CAR government commits to aid Government now stepping forward to effectiveness principles lead aid coordination • Sept 2007: HIPC decision point • Alignment CAR becomes eligible for debt relief, Transitioning from donor to national HIPC triggers focus on accountability development priorities • Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction Strategy • Harmonisation CAR government presents national Integrating humanitarian and priorities to international community development coordination • Managing for results Strengthening national monitoring and evaluation capacity • Mutual accountability Implementing aid management system Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 41
  42. 42. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) An inclusive strategy for development Risks and need for action • Landmark document published in 2007 • Serious government efforts need to be after wide public engagement matched by stronger donor • Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for period engagement 2008-2010 • Lack of action on the PRSP could • Donor Round Table raised significant contribute to popular disillusionment expectations among the population and renewed tensions • Linking humanitarian and development aid critical to avoid recovery gap Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 42
  43. 43. HUMANITARIAN ACTION Increasing humanitarian financing Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) financing rises from $2.9m in 2004 to $69.3m in 2007 $92.5m $69.3m $23.9m $9.8m $2.9m 2004 2005 2006 2007 August 08 Source: FTS (2008) Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 43
  44. 44. HUMANITARIAN ACTION Increasing humanitarian presence – January 2007 Birao Ndélé Paoua Kaga-Bandoro Bossangoa Bozoum Bouar Sibut Bambari Bangui Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 44
  45. 45. HUMANITARIAN ACTION Increasing humanitarian presence – September 2008 Birao Gordil Ndélé Kabo Sam Ouandja Paoua Bocaranga Kaga-Bandoro Bossangoa Bozoum Mbrés Bouar Obo Sibut Bambari JUPEDEC BANGUI Source: HDPT CAR / Sep 08 500 km Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 45
  46. 46. HUMANITARIAN ACTION Reviewing humanitarian action Changing realities Risks and need for action • Peace agreements with militants • Regional insecurity risk remains present and could • Govt improves on human rights continue to grow – Sudan, Chad and now LRA in south-east • Banditry becoming main threat • High prevalence of small arms increases likelihood of • Cross-border attacks worsen renewed conflict • Humanitarian presence breeds • Just above crisis point – small changes in security stability situation could have massive humanitarian Adapting the strategy consequences • Funding decline could endanger early achievements • Expanding protection efforts which have not yet been consolidated • Reaching more people than ever • Early recovery provides basis for longer term • Seizing recovery opportunities development – essential to bridge gap between • Streamlining humanitarian funding humanitarian action and development aid Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 46
  47. 47. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE The aid gap is growing Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985) Sub-Saharan Africa +100% CAR +80% +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% -40% -60% -80% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 47
  48. 48. Because of political instability? CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Rwanda Angola Uganda Central African Republic Chad Nigeria Cote d’Ivoire Sudan Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 48
  49. 49. Because of a lack of strategic natural resources? Sudan Chad Darfur Cameroon Bangui Diamonds Gold DRC Timber Congo Uranium Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 49
  50. 50. Because of corruption? CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Rwanda Ethiopia Uganda Central African Republic Sudan Angola Chad Nigeria Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 50
  51. 51. Because of an overly repressive regime? CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Uganda Central African Republic Ethiopia Rwanda Nigeria Chad Zimbabwe Congo, Dem. Republic of Sudan Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 51
  52. 52. Opportunities and risks in 2009 Opportunities Risks Help to consolidate fragile peace Resurgent violence • Dialogue paves way for free elections in 2010 • Failure of dialogue reignites insurgencies • Security sector reform improves security and • Lack of security sector reform leads to continued respect for human rights impunity and dwindling international support Respond to manageable problem Progress undone • Small population with basic needs • Short-term engagement undermines sustainability • Small investments have large impact • Vulnerability to regional shocks remains high • Cooperative government despite low capacity • CAR disappears from view once again Move from crisis to recovery Dangerous recovery gap • Transition to early recovery and • Lack of humanitarian transition leads to aid shortfall national development strategy and renewed tensions • Humanitarian actors incorporate recovery • Failure to support long-term development action strategy in their programmes weakens fragile society Break circle of poverty and conflict Fall back into full-scale violence Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 52
  53. 53. WEBSITES Useful websites • www.hdptcar.net – HDPT CAR Blog on the humanitarian and development situation • www.hcpt.jot.com – HDPT CAR Intranet for Humanitarian and Development Partners • www.cf.undp.org – UNDP Central African Republic • www.car-conference.net – CAR Development Partner Consultation • www.car-round-table.net – CAR Development Partner Round Table • www.minplan-rca.org – CAR Ministry of Planning, Economics and International Cooperation Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 53
  54. 54. CONTACTS Contact the Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team • Mr Toby Lanzer – Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator – UNDP Representative – Phone +236 75 56 10 26 | Email toby.lanzer@undp.org • Ms Amanda Weyler – Special Assistant to the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator – Phone +236 75 56 27 44 | Email amanda.weyler@undp.org • Mr Jean-Sebastien Munie – Head of OCHA – Phone +236 75 55 41 41 | Email munie@un.org • Mr Kersten Jauer – UN Information Manager – Phone +236 75 57 50 34 | Email kersten.jauer@undp.org Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 54
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