Research undertaken to help identify problems which are not necessarily apparent on the surface and yet exist or are likely to arise in the future. Examples: market potential, market share, image, market characteristics, sales analysis, forecasting, and trends research.
Problem-Solving Research
Research undertaken to help solve specific marketing problems. Examples: segmentation, product, pricing, promotion, and distribution research.
Risk: A decision making condition under which a manager can list all outcome and assign probabilities to each outcome
Uncertainty : A decision- making condition under which a manager cannot list all possible outcome and/ or cannot assign probabilities to the various outcome
Decision Alternative : There is finite number of decision alternative available with the decision maker at each point when decision is made
State of Nature : A possible future condition resulting from choice of a decision alternative depends upon certain factors beyond the control of decision maker
A retailer buys an article at Rs.2 per case and sells the same at Rs.5 . He incurs a loss of Rs 2 for every item which is not sold.Previous experience shows that demand varies from 13 to 15 cases a day . Construct Conditional Payoff table
I
H Dangi, FMS I
15.
Conditional Pay off Table H Dangi, FMS I hear, I forget I see, I remember I do I understand State of Nature/ Strategy 13 14 15 13 39 37 35 14 39 42 40 15 39 42 45
A physician purchase a particular medicine n Monday of each week . The medicine must be used within the week following otherwise it will become worthless . The medicine costs Rs 2 per order and physician charges Rs 4 per dose . The past 50 week records are as follow:
Dose per Week 20 25 40 60
No of weeks 5 15 25 5
Find : I) EMV ii) EOL iii) EVPI
H Dangi, FMS I hear, I forget I see, I remember I do I understand
A company has leased an oil mine . It may sell it for Rs 25000or drill it for oil . The various possible drilling results are given as under along with probability dist.
A company has leased an oil mine . It may sell it for Rs 25000or drill it for oil . The various possible drilling results are given as under along with probability dist.
H Dangi, FMS Possible results Probability Rs consequences Dry well 0.10 - 1,00,000 Gas well only 0.40 45000 Oil& Gas 0.30 98000 Oil well only 0.20 1,99,000
A business man has two investments A and B available to him: but he lacks the capital to undertake both of them simultaneously. He can choose to take A first and then stop, or if A is successful then take B, or vice versa. The probability of success of A is 0.7 while for B is 0.4 .Both require an initial outlay of Rs 2000 and both return nothing if it fails. Successful completion of A will return Rs 3000 while B will return Rs 5000 .Draw the decision tree and determine the best strategy.
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