John Appleby: future health and social care spending pressures

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John Appleby takes a closer look at how spending on the provision of health and social care in England may change in the next 50 years.

John Appleby takes a closer look at how spending on the provision of health and social care in England may change in the next 50 years.

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  • 1. Future health and social carespending pressuresJohn ApplebyChief Economist, The King’s Fund
  • 2. What is driving increased spending?
  • 3. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status
  • 4. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income
  • 5. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income Consumer/patient behaviours
  • 6. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income Consumer/patient behaviours Treatment practices
  • 7. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income Consumer/patient behaviours Treatment practices Technological progress
  • 8. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income Consumer/patient behaviours Treatment practices Technological progress Health prices and productivity
  • 9. What is driving increased spending? Demographic factors and health status Income Consumer/patient behaviours Treatment practices Technological progress Health prices and productivity Health care system organisation
  • 10. Key questions
  • 11. Key questions Will people be willing to pay the same or indeed increasing levels of taxes?
  • 12. Key questions Will people be willing to pay the same or indeed increasing levels of taxes? Will the government be willing and able to increase borrowing?
  • 13. Key questions Will people be willing to pay the same or indeed increasing levels of taxes? Will the government be willing and able to increase borrowing? Will there be an expectation that people should take greater personal responsibility?
  • 14. ‘What outcomes will be possible for our future health?What resources will be needed to achieve them, inhealth care and elsewhere? How can we minimise thecost and how do we decide how much is justified?How do we create the flexibility to react wheninevitably circumstances change? Is there awillingness and an ability, individually or collectively,to pay the cost?’ Sir Derek Wanless Wanless D, Appleby J, Harrison A, Patel D (2007). Our future health secured?: A review of NHS funding and performance, London: The King’s Fund.
  • 15. Find out more: www.kingsfund.org.uk/think