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    3.1 human population dynamics notes 3.1 human population dynamics notes Presentation Transcript

    • Guru IB syllabus: 3.1.1-3.1.4 Ch 12 Video: The Population Paradox – World in the Balance Topic 3 Human Population Human Populations: Population Dynamics 1
    • Guru • 3.1.1: Describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in human populations • 3.1.2: Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility , doubling time and natural increase rate • 3.1.3: Analyze age/sex pyramids and diagrams showing demographic transition models • 3.1.4: Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations Topic 3 Human Population Syllabus Statements 2
    • Crude birth rate Crude death rate Demographic transition Doubling time Fertility Rate of natural increase Guru 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Topic 3 Human Population vocabulary 3
    • Factors Effecting Population Size • 3 factors effecting population birth, death, & migration. • Crude Death rate = # deaths / 1000 people in year population Guru • Crude Birth rate = # live births / 1000 people in year population. Topic 3 Human Population • Population change = (Birth + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) • Rates more often used. 4
    • Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 All developing countries Topic 3 Human Population 10 24 Developing countries (w/o China) 29 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Guru 8 5
    • 38 14 Latin America 23 6 Asia 20 Oceania 18 7 United States 15 9 North America 14 9 Europe Topic 3 Human Population 7 Guru © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Africa 6 10 11
    • Guru • Worldwide birth and death rates dropping • Death rate dropping faster than birth rate • 216,000 people added to world population daily • Exponential population growth still occurring but slower • http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Population counter • But base number still increasing • 79 x 106 people added per year Topic 3 Human Population World Population Change 7
    • World Population over the Centuries Guru Topic 3 Human Population 9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour 8
    • Topic 3 Human Population <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Guru Annual world population growth 9
    • Reasons for the Human Population Explosion • Death rates dropping faster because of Topic 3 Human Population B Birth Age Death Survival changed from B to A Guru • Causes of disease recognized • Improvements in nutrition • Discovery of antibiotics • Improvements in medicine • Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age A 10
    • Implications of Exponential Growth • Increase strain on the environment – pollution, sanitation needs, biodiversity loss • Increase food production & land under production Guru • Outstrip our resource base – nonrenewable gone, renewable maybe used faster than replaced Topic 3 Human Population • Biotic potential exceeds environmental resistance: birth rates exceed death rates 11
    • 12 Guru Topic 3 Human Population
    • • 14 • 5 • 258 Guru • America • West Germany • Africa Topic 3 Human Population Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren 13
    • • Total fertility rate (TFR)= # of children a woman will have in her childbearing years (15-49) • TFR = 1.6 in developed countries, 3.1 in developing countries Guru • Replacement fertility – number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves – roughly 2.1 • Reaching replacement fertility now would still cause population growth for another 50 years Topic 3 Human Population Fertility 14
    • Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times 70/Rate of Increase = Doubling Time Guru Topic 3 Human Population (CBR – CDR)/10 = Rate of increase or decrease in population per 1,000 per year 15
    • CBR CDR Kenya 33 13 Mexico 27 5 USA 15 9 Denmark 13 Rate of Increase Doubling Time Guru Country Topic 3 Human Population Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times: Practice 11 16
    • Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times: Answers CDR Kenya 33 13 Mexico 27 5 2.2 32 USA 15 9 0.6 116 11 0.2 350 431 Denmark 13 Rate of Increase 2.0 Doubling Time 35 Topic 3 Human Population CBR Guru Country 17
    • 4-4.9 2-2.9 5+ 3-3.9 Data not available Worldwide TFR in 2002 Topic 3 Human Population <2 Guru Births per woman 18
    • Population projections based on TFR (H = 2.6, M = 2.1, L = 1.7) 12 9 8 High 10.9 Medium Low Medium 9.3 7 6 Low 7.3 5 Guru Population (billions) 10 High Topic 3 Human Population 11 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year 19 2050
    • 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.5 Topic 3 Human Population Baby boom (1946-64) 1.0 0.5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 Demographic 14 transition 0 1910 1920 Guru Births per thousand population Births per woman US fertility and the “baby boom” End of World War II Depression Baby boom 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year Baby bust 1970 20 Echo baby boom 1980 1990 2000 2010
    • 2. 3. 4. Importance of children for labor  higher in developing countries & rural areas Urbanization  more family planning resources, less need for children in cities Cost of raising or educating children  more expensive to raise in developed areas Education & Employment for women  less opportunity outside of house higher TFR 5. Infant mortality rate  When infant mortality lower fewer children needed 6. Average age at marriage  Fewer children when 25 or older for marriage 7. Availability of pension  Eliminate need for kids to take care of you 8. Availability of Legal abortion 9. Availability of & Reliability of birth Control 10.Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms Guru 1. Topic 3 Human Population Factors effecting Birth & TFR 21
    • Guru • Infant mortality and Life Expectancy are good indicators of health in a country • Global life expectancy is increasing • Poorest countries it may still be low or even falling (AIDS in Africa) • Infant mortality encompasses nutrition & health care so it’s a good measure • Still 8 million infants worldwide dieing of preventable causes in first year of life • US – teen pregnancy rate highest of all industrialized countries Topic 3 Human Population Life & Death 22
    • 23 Guru Topic 3 Human Population
    • Topic 3 Human Population <10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available Guru Infant deaths per 1,000 live births 24
    • Different Worlds Guru Topic 3 Human Population • Rich nations, poor nations • Population growth in rich and poor nations • Different populations, different problems 25
    • Population (2002) 288 million 174 million 130 million United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) Population projected (2025) 219 million 205 million 6.8 33 75 Life expectancy 77 years 69 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.1 2.2 5.8 %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP (2000) Guru 21% Topic 3 Human Population Infant mortality rate 346 million 33% 44% 13% 5% 3% 26 $34,100 $7,300 $800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
    • Economic Categories Based on Per Capita Gross National Income • Middle-income, moderately developed countries • Latin America, South Africa, China • Average GNI per capita = $1,850 Guru • United States, Japan, Canada • Average GNI per capita = $26,710 Topic 3 Human Population • High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries • Low-income, developing countries • Western and central Africa, India, central Asia • Average GNI per capita = $430 27
    • Disparities • Developed countries • 16% of the world’s population • Control 81% of the world’s wealth • Difference in per capita income: 62 to 1! Guru • 41% of the world’s population • Control 3.4% of the world’s gross national income Topic 3 Human Population • Low-income developing countries 28
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries 29
    • © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developed Countries 40 Rate of natural increase 30 Topic 3 Human Population Crude birth rate 20 Crude death rate 10 Guru Rate per 1,000 people 50 Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate 0 1775 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 2050 30
    • © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developing Countries 50 40 Rate of natural increase 30 Topic 3 Human Population Crude death rate 20 Guru Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate 10 0 1775 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 2050 31
    • Population Age Structure • Represent a good comparison between countries • Compare Growth  Rapid, Slow, Zero, Negative Guru • Prereproductive: 0 – 14 years • Reproductive: 15 – 44 years • Postreproductive: 45 and up Topic 3 Human Population • Analysis by sex, of the proportion of population at each age level • 3 main age categories 32
    • Male Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Ages 0-14 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Female Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Topic 3 Human Population Female Guru Male 33
    • Male Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Ages 0-14 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Female Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Topic 3 Human Population Female Guru Male 34
    • Age Structure & Population Growth • Population has stabilized or declining in most developed countries • Many developing countries expected to double or triple before stabilizing Guru • Depends on the number of females as well • In 2002 30% of world population was below 15 (33% in developing countries) Topic 3 Human Population • Country with many people under 15 has large potential for population increase. • Mexico, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil 35
    • Guru • Countries like Iraq will continue to grow for 50–60 years even after the total fertility rate is reduced to replacement level. Topic 3 Human Population Population Momentum 36
    • Track the baby boomers through age pyramids Currently ½ of adult Americans Dominate demand for goods, services, & control politics and laws The social security problem – Paid for by current workers, fewer than boomers • Future impact = later retirement, more taxes, … Guru • • • • Topic 3 Human Population Projections of Population and Economics 37
    • Age Age Females Males Age Males 2015 4 84 12 Millions 16 4 128 16 20 Millions Age Females Males Guru 1955 20 Females 16 8 12 20 20 16 12 48 Topic 3 Human Population Females Males 20 1985 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 24 1620 12 48 4 128 16 20 Millions 24 2035 20 38 20 16 12 48 4 128 16 20 Millions 24
    • Guru Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary 20 1950 16.5 10 1945 Topic 3 Human Population 40 1945 41.9 workers 30 0 2075 1.9 2000 Year 2050 2075 39
    • If many populations stable now At some future time they will begin to decline By 2050 – 39 countries are expected to be in decline If rapid, can cause problems (1) consume public services, health care, social security; (2) labor shortage, increased reliance on immigrant labor Guru • • • • Topic 3 Human Population Problems with Population decline 40
    • 40 30 Global Aging 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 Year Under age 15 Topic 3 Human Population 25 Guru Age Distribution (%) 35 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over 41
    • Population decline from rising death rates Sharp decrease in average life expectancy Loss of productive workers Rise in numbers of orphans Drop in food production with loss of laborers • Need new Marshall Plan • Reduce HIV spread: education, health services • Restore economic progress: aid as $ & volunteers Guru • • • • Topic 3 Human Population • HIV epidemic in Africa kills 6000 daily • Kills mostly young adults 42
    • Guru • Wrong question? • What is the optimum number of people that can be sustainably supported by the earth without further environmental degradation • Optimum would allow people to live comfortably without harming future generations Topic 3 Human Population Is the world overpopulated? 43
    • Reducing births! - Violation of personal and religious freedoms - Viewed as a form of genocide by some ethnic groups - BUT - We currently don’t provide basic needs for 1/6 of the world population - Increasing environmental harm & death rates - Life span longer today so we have a greater per person impact too Guru 1. Topic 3 Human Population Solutions 44
    • Demographic Transition Hypothesis As countries become industrialized first death rate then birth rate will decline 1. Preindustrial Stage  harsh living conditions = little population growth, high B & D Industrial Stage  Industry continues = population grows but Topic 3 Human Population Transitional Stage  industrialization starts, better healthcare & slowly, B > D by a little 2. Guru • food = population growth is rapid, high B & lower D 3. 4. Postindustrial Stage  population growth stops, B = D (13% of world) then B < D an may start to decline (this may be stage 5) 45
    • Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial 60 50 Birth rate 40 30 Death rate 20 10 Total population 0 Low growth rate Increasing growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low Low growth rate Zero growth rate Guru Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) 70 Topic 3 Human Population High 80 Negative growth rate Time 46
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population Demographic Transition Comparisons 47
    • Demographic Transition Hypothesis • Most developing countries today have death rates declining • Fear that population growth in these areas will overcome economic growth • Demographic Trap: get stuck in a stage Guru • Still in Transitional stage Topic 3 Human Population more than birth rates • Countries lack skilled workers, capital & resources, drop in economic assistance 48
    • Doing so will reduce abortion rates & save lives as well Family Planning – info on birth spacing, birth control and prenatal care Empowering women – education, job opportunities, womens rights 2. • 3. Women work 2/3 all hours worked, 10% income Economic Rewards & Penalties – payments to individuals who use contraceptives Guru • 1. Topic 3 Human Population Can we reduce Birth rates 49
    • Male sterilization 5% Condom 5% Global Contraceptive Use Pill 8% No method 43% Guru Topic 3 Human Population Other methods 10% IUD 12% 50 Female sterilization 17%
    • India: A Case Study GNIPP is $2,340 a year Unemployment = 50% 40% population, 50% children suffer malnutrition 16% world population, 2% resources ½ cropland degraded, 70% water seriously polluted • Overall, program disappointing & poorly done Guru • • • • • Topic 3 Human Population • World’s first national family planning program • After 50 years it is still the second most populous country in world (1 billion) 51
    • China: A Case Study • 1972-2002 cut crude birth rate in half, TFR from 5.7 to 1.8 children per woman UN projects population drop by 2042 It was either population control or starvation Population still growing, mass environmental impact But projected to be on the decline by 2040 Guru • • • • Topic 3 Human Population • Encourage late marriage & 1 child per family • Contraception. Sterilization, Abortion = FREE • Reward Food, $$$, School tuition, Medical care 52
    • India China Percentage of world population 16% 21% Population (2000) 1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 36% 25% Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate 1.8% 0.9% 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate Guru Population under age 15(%) Topic 3 Human Population 17% 72 31 Life expectancy GNP per capita (1998) 61 years 71 years $440 $750 53
    • Cutting Global Population Growth Universal access to family planning Improve health care – infants, children, women Social & Economic plans for countries Increase access to education Eradicate poverty Eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption Guru • • • • • • Topic 3 Human Population • UN encouraging world population stability 54
    • Guru • We can’t see the future • But we have good predictive power based on current numbers • Using birth & death rates, fertility and extrapolation we can model populations into the future • Models based on mathematical calculations of future predictions Topic 3 Human Population The use of Models 55
    • Computer Simulations Guru Topic 3 Human Population • View Population connection simulation 56
    • Demographic Tables Guru Topic 3 Human Population • http://www.wpro.who.int/publications/databas es/demographic_tables/en/ 57
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population Projecting Future Populations: Age/Sex Pyramids 58
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population Graphical Extrapolation: World Population 59
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population • http://www.shambles.net/worldclock/worldclock.swf 60
    • Guru Topic 3 Human Population Review Topics 61
    • High fertility rates High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth Intense poverty Eat high on the food chain Long doubling times High environmental degradation Twenty percent of the world’s population Rule of 70 – yrs it takes for pop to double Guru • • • • • • • • Topic 3 Human Population Are these characteristics of Developing or Developed Nations? 62
    • Compare Projected Populations in Developing and Developed Countries Fertility Rate <2 Guru Topic 3 Human Population Fertility Rate >2 63
    • LESS biodiversity pest resistance wetlands Guru More Population MORE Causes deforestation resource depletion loss of agricultural land disease population migration Irrigation Topic 3 Human Population Consequences of Exploding Populations 64