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Chapter 1
 

Chapter 1

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    Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Presentation Transcript

    • Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown
    • Why Do Individuals Invest ?
      • By saving money (instead of spending it), individuals tradeoff present consumption for a larger future consumption.
    • How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?
      • The pure rate of interest is the exchange rate between future consumption (future dollars) and present consumption (current dollars). Market forces determine this rate.
      • If the future payment will be diminished in value because of inflation , then the investor will demand an interest rate higher than the pure time value of money to also cover the expected inflation expense.
      How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?
      • If the future payment from the investment is not certain , the investor will demand an interest rate that exceeds the pure time value of money plus the inflation rate to provide a risk premium to cover the investment risk.
      How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?
    • Defining an Investment
      • A current commitment of $ for a period of time in order to derive future payments that will compensate for:
        • the time the funds are committed
        • the expected rate of inflation
        • uncertainty of future flow of funds.
    • Measures of Historical Rates of Return
      • Arithmetic Mean
      1.4
    • Measures of Historical Rates of Return
      • Geometric Mean
      1.5
    • A Portfolio of Investments
      • The mean historical rate of return for a portfolio of investments is measured as the weighted average of the HPYs for the individual investments in the portfolio, or the overall change in the value of the original portfolio
    • Expected Rates of Return
      • Risk is uncertainty that an investment will earn its expected rate of return
      • Probability is the likelihood of an outcome
    • Expected Rates of Return 1.6
    • Risk Aversion
      • The assumption that most investors will choose the least risky alternative, all else being equal and that they will not accept additional risk unless they are compensated in the form of higher return
    • Probability Distributions
      • Risk-free Investment
      Exhibit 1.2
    • Probability Distributions
      • Risky Investment with 3 Possible Returns
      Exhibit 1.3
    • Probability Distributions
      • Risky investment with ten possible rates of return
      Exhibit 1.4
    • Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return 1.7
    • Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return
      • Standard Deviation is the square root of the variance
      1.8
    • Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return
      • Coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of relative variability that indicates risk per unit of return
      • Standard Deviation of Returns
      • Expected Rate of Returns
      1.9
    • Measuring the Risk of Historical Rates of Return
      • variance of the series
      • holding period yield during period I
      • expected value of the HPY that is equal to the arithmetic mean of the series
      • the number of observations
      1.10
    • Determinants of Required Rates of Return
      • Time value of money during the period of investment
      • Expected rate of inflation during the period
      • Risk involved
    • Nominal Risk-Free Rate
      • The quoted rate (T-Bill)
      • Dependent upon
        • Conditions in the Capital Markets
        • Expected Rate of Inflation
    • The Real Risk Free Rate (RRFR)
        • Assumes no inflation.
        • Assumes no uncertainty about future cash flows.
        • Influenced by time preference for consumption of income and investment opportunities in the economy
    • Adjusting For Inflation
      • Real RFR =
      1.12
    • Facets of Fundamental Risk
      • Business risk
      • Financial risk
      • Liquidity risk
      • Exchange rate risk
      • Country risk
    • Risk Premium
      • f (Business Risk, Financial Risk, Liquidity Risk, Exchange Rate Risk, Country Risk)
      • or
      • f (Systematic Market Risk)
    • Business Risk
      • Uncertainty of income flows caused by the nature of a firm’s business
      • Sales volatility and operating leverage determine the level of business risk .
    • Financial Risk
      • Uncertainty caused by the use of debt financing .
      • Borrowing requires fixed payments which must be paid ahead of payments to stockholders.
      • The use of debt increases uncertainty of stockholder income and causes an increase in the stock’s risk premium.
    • Liquidity Risk
      • Uncertainty is introduced by the secondary market for an investment.
        • How long will it take to convert an investment into cash?
        • How certain is the price that will be received?
    • Exchange Rate Risk
      • Uncertainty of return is introduced by acquiring securities denominated in a currency different from that of the investor.
      • Changes in exchange rates affect the investors return when converting an investment back into the “home” currency.
    • Country Risk
      • Political risk is the uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a major change in the political or economic environment in a country.
      • Individuals who invest in countries that have unstable political-economic systems must include a country risk-premium when determining their required rate of return
    • Risk Premium and Portfolio Theory
      • The relevant risk measure for an individual asset is its co-movement with the market portfolio
      • Systematic risk relates the variance of the investment to the variance of the market
      • Beta measures this systematic risk of an asset
    • Fundamental Risk versus Systematic Risk
      • Fundamental risk comprises business risk, financial risk, liquidity risk, exchange rate risk, and country risk
      • Systematic risk refers to the portion of an individual asset’s total variance attributable to the variability of the total market portfolio
    • Relationship Between Risk and Return Exhibit 1.7 (Expected)
    • Changes in the Required Rate of Return Due to Movements Along the SML Exhibit 1.8
    • Change in Market Risk Premium Exhibit 1.10 NRFR Expected Return R m ´ R m
    • Capital Market Conditions, Expected Inflation, and the SML Exhibit 1.11 NRFR NRFR´ Expected Return
    • The Internet Investments Online
      • http://www.finpipe.com
      • http://www.investorguide.com
      • http://www.aaii.com
      • http://www.economist.com
      • http://www.online.wsj.com
      • http://www.forbes.com
      • http://www.barrons.com
      • http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/journal/jofsites.htm
      • http://www.ft.com
      • http://www.fortune.com
      • http://www.smartmoney.com
      • http://www.worth.com
      • http://www.money.cnn.com
    • Future Topics Chapter 2
      • The asset allocation decision
      • The individual investor life cycle
      • Risk tolerance
      • Portfolio management