1BFC 1BFC Jim Huntzinger Chief Investment Officer


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1BFC 1BFC Jim Huntzinger Chief Investment Officer

  1. 1. 1 BFC Jim Huntzinger Chief Investment Officer February 24 th , 2009 Leadership Oklahoma Market Outlook
  2. 2. Unusual Starting Point for 2009 Source: ISI
  3. 3. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 <ul><li>1) Transitioning to </li></ul><ul><li>Deflation </li></ul><ul><li>ISI CPI Forecast Model </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Wage Trends </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Rent Inflation </li></ul><ul><li>3) U.S. Finds A Footing </li></ul><ul><li>Ahead of the Global </li></ul><ul><li>Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic vs. Foreign Focused Equities </li></ul><ul><li>Value over Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Small over Large </li></ul><ul><li>2) Unprecedented </li></ul><ul><li>Global Policy Easing </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Equity & Policy Rates </li></ul><ul><li>Growth Rates </li></ul>Source: ISI
  4. 4. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 CPI Model Suggest Deflation is Right Around the Corner! Source: ISI
  5. 5. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 Source: ISI
  6. 6. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 Source: ISI
  7. 7. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 The world has never experienced a synchronized rate cutting cycle of this magnitude… Source: ISI
  8. 8. Key Influences Likely to Shape Markets in 2009 Source: ISI
  9. 9. Investment Conclusions Source: ISI
  10. 10. General Investment Conclusions <ul><li>Markets threatening again. Currently waiting for details of administration financial system plan. Policy response is still behind the sinking economic curve. </li></ul>Fed: Short rates will remain anchored at zero. Longer rates will continue under pressure to move even lower, until economic log jam begins to break. Bonds: Sell on strength mentality remains intact for equities. Backdrop for equities remains poor. Earnings expectations have dropped but few signs of recovery yet. Equities:
  11. 11. Valuations Approaching Extremes The market’s dividend yield is now nearly 100 basis points greater than 10-Year Treasuries Source: Strategas
  12. 12. Valuations Approaching Extremes The market’s current Price-to Book is now lower than it has been at any time since roughly 1986 Source: Strategas
  13. 13. Valuations Approaching Extremes The S&P’s price to sales multiple is now 0.8x, lower than at any time we have available data Source: Strategas
  14. 14. Investment Conculsion Source: ISI
  15. 15. Investment Conclusions Source: ISI
  16. 16. Investment Conclusions <ul><li>Little hope for anything but miniscule yields in ‘09 </li></ul>Cash: <ul><li>Majority of return has already been had in U.S. Treasury market. Look for better opportunities in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Municipal Bonds (credit issues) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mortgage Backed Securities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate Bonds (have seen some recent improvement) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Still too early to position for the re-flation trade… </li></ul><ul><li>but it is coming </li></ul>Bonds: Equities: <ul><li>Favor U.S. over Internationals </li></ul><ul><li>Gradually overweight small cap over large cap </li></ul><ul><li>Gradually overweight value over growth </li></ul><ul><li>Expect an economic recovery, preceded by a market rally, just don’t expect it tomorrow </li></ul>
  17. 17. Legal Stuff Disclaimers The information in the report was prepared by Jim Huntzinger. BOK Financial Corporation, a multi-bank financial holding company (NASDAQ:BOKF), offers trust and investment management services through its subsidiaries, Bank of Oklahoma , N.A., Bank of Texas , N.A., Bank of Albuquerque , N.A., Bank of Arkansas , N.A., Bank of Arizona , N.A., Colorado State Bank and Trust , N.A., Bank of Kansas City , N.A., and Southwest Trust Company, N.A, and investment advisory services through Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc., a subsidiary of Bank of Oklahoma (each an “Investment Subsidiary”). Distribution of this report is intended for informational purposes. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. The opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment of the author at this date and are subject to change without notice and are not a complete analysis of any sector, industry or security. The information provided in this presentation is not a solicitation for the investment management services of any Investment Subsidiary. This document does not constitute the recommendation of any Investment Subsidiary to meet the investment needs of any individual client. It does not take into account any specific investment objectives, financial situations, or particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. This report is not to be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, nor is it intended to provide personal investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. The information provided in this presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in any jurisdiction. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Investments are not insured by the FDIC and are not guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate. Investments are subject to risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report may not be reproduced, redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, or referred to in any publication, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BOKF. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this research report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report.