Lecture Presentation Software   to accompany Investment Analysis and  Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by  Frank K. Rei...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>Questions to be answered: </li></ul><ul><li>How do you determine ...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>How do you compute the following yields on bonds: current yield, ...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>How and why do you use the spot rate curve to determine the value...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>When yields change, what characteristics of a bond cause differen...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What is effective duration and when is it useful? </li></ul><ul><...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What happens to the duration and convexity of bonds that have emb...
Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What are effective duration and effective convexity and when are ...
The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation <ul><li>The present-value model </li></ul>Where: P m =the current market price of the b...
The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation <ul><li>If yield < coupon rate, bond will be priced at a premium to its par value </li>...
The Present Value Model <ul><li>The value of the bond  equals the present value of its expected cash flows </li></ul>where...
The Yield Model <ul><li>The expected yield on the bond may be computed from the market price </li></ul>where: i  = the dis...
Computing Bond Yields <ul><li>Yield Measure   Purpose </li></ul>Nominal Yield Measures the coupon rate Current yield Measu...
Nominal Yield <ul><li>Measures the coupon rate that a bond investor receives as a percent of the bond’s par value </li></ul>
Current Yield <ul><li>Similar to dividend yield for stocks </li></ul><ul><li>Important to income oriented investors </li><...
Promised Yield to Maturity <ul><li>Widely used bond yield figure </li></ul><ul><li>Assumes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Investor ...
Computing the  Promised Yield to Maturity <ul><li>Solve for  i  that will equate the current price to all cash flows from ...
Computing Promised Yield to Call <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P m   = market price of the bond </li></ul><ul><li>C i  ...
Realized (Horizon) Yield Present-Value Method
Calculating Future Bond Prices <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P f   = estimated future price of the bond </li></ul><ul><...
Yield Adjustments  for Tax-Exempt Bonds <ul><li>Where: </li></ul><ul><li>FTEY  = fully taxable yield equivalent </li></ul>...
Bond Valuation Using Spot Rates <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P m   = the market price of the bond </li></ul><ul><li>C ...
What Determines Interest Rates <ul><li>Inverse relationship with bond prices </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting interest rates ...
What Determines Interest Rates <ul><li>Effect of economic factors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>real growth rate </li></ul></ul><u...
Term Structure of Interest Rates <ul><li>It is a static function that relates the term to maturity to the yield to maturit...
Spot Rates and Forward Rates <ul><li>Creating the Theoretical Spot Rate Curve </li></ul><ul><li>Calculating Forward Rates ...
Expectations Hypothesis <ul><li>Any long-term interest rate simply represents the geometric mean of current and future one...
Liquidity Preference Theory <ul><li>Long-term securities should provide higher returns than short-term obligations because...
Segmented-Market Hypothesis <ul><li>Different institutional investors have different maturity needs that lead them to conf...
Trading Implications of the Term Structure <ul><li>Information on maturities can help you formulate yield expectations by ...
Yield Spreads <ul><li>Segments: government bonds, agency bonds, and corporate bonds </li></ul><ul><li>Sectors: prime-grade...
Yield Spreads <ul><li>Magnitudes and direction of yield spreads can change over time </li></ul>
What Determines the  Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Bond price change is measured as the percentage change in the pric...
What Determines the  Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Four Factors </li></ul><ul><li>1. Par value </li></ul><ul><li>2. C...
What Determines the  Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Five observed behaviors </li></ul><ul><li>1. Bond prices move inve...
What Determines the  Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>The maturity effect </li></ul><ul><li>The coupon effect </li></ul>...
The Duration Measure <ul><li>Since price volatility of a bond varies inversely with its coupon and directly with its term ...
The Duration Measure <ul><li>Developed by Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938 </li></ul><ul><li>Where: </li></ul><ul><li>t  =  tim...
Characteristics of Macaulay Duration <ul><li>Duration of a bond with coupons is always less than its term to maturity beca...
Modified Duration and Bond Price Volatility <ul><li>An adjusted measure of duration can be used to approximate the price v...
Modified Duration and Bond Price Volatility <ul><li>Bond price movements will vary proportionally with modified duration f...
Trading Strategies Using Modified Duration <ul><li>Longest-duration security provides the maximum price variation </li></u...
Bond Duration in Years for Bonds Yielding 6 Percent Under Different Terms
Bond Convexity <ul><li>Modified duration is a linear approximation of bond price change for small changes in market yields...
Price-Yield Relationship for Bonds <ul><li>The graph of prices relative to yields is not a straight line, but a curvilinea...
Modified Duration <ul><li>For small changes this will give a good estimate, but this is a linear estimate on the tangent l...
Determinants of Convexity <ul><li>The convexity is the measure of the curvature and is the second derivative of price with...
Determinants of Convexity <ul><li>Inverse relationship between coupon and convexity </li></ul><ul><li>Direct relationship ...
Modified Duration-Convexity Effects <ul><li>Changes in a bond’s price resulting from a change in yield are due to: </li></...
Duration and Convexity  for Callable Bonds <ul><li>Issuer has option to call bond and pay off with proceeds from a new iss...
Option Adjusted Duration <ul><li>Based on the probability that the issuing firm will exercise its call option </li></ul><u...
Convexity of Callable Bonds <ul><li>Noncallable bond has positive convexity </li></ul><ul><li>Callable bond has negative c...
Limitations of Macaulay and Modified Duration <ul><li>Percentage change estimates using modified duration only are good fo...
Effective Duration <ul><li>Measure of the interest rate sensitivity of an asset </li></ul><ul><li>Use a pricing model to e...
Effective Duration <ul><li>Effective duration greater than maturity </li></ul><ul><li>Negative effective duration </li></u...
Empirical Duration <ul><li>Actual percent change for an asset in response to a change in yield during a specified time per...
Yield Spreads With Embedded Options <ul><li>Static Yield Spreads </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider the total term structure <...
The Internet Investments Online <ul><li>http://www.bondcalc.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.bondmarkets.com </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>End of Chapter 18 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds </li></ul></ul>
Future topics Chapter 19 <ul><li>Bond Portfolio Management Strategies </li></ul>
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  1. 1. Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 18
  2. 2. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>Questions to be answered: </li></ul><ul><li>How do you determine the value of a bond based on the present value formula? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the alternative bond yields that are important to investors? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>How do you compute the following yields on bonds: current yield, yield to maturity, yield to call, and compound realized (horizon) yield? </li></ul><ul><li>What are spot rates and forward rates and how do you calculate these rates from a yield to maturity curve? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the spot rate yield curve and forward rate curve? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>How and why do you use the spot rate curve to determine the value of a bond? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the alternative theories that attempt to explain the shape of the term structure of interest rates? </li></ul><ul><li>What factors affect the level of bond yields at a point in time? </li></ul><ul><li>What economic forces cause changes in bond yields over time? </li></ul>
  5. 5. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>When yields change, what characteristics of a bond cause differential price changes for individual bonds? </li></ul><ul><li>What is meant by the duration of a bond, how do you compute it, and what factors affect it? </li></ul><ul><li>What is modified duration and what is the relationship between a bond’s modified duration and its volatility? </li></ul>
  6. 6. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What is effective duration and when is it useful? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the convexity for a bond, how do you compute it, and what factors affect it? </li></ul><ul><li>Under what conditions is it necessary to consider both modified duration and convexity when estimating a bond’s price volatility? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What happens to the duration and convexity of bonds that have embedded call options? </li></ul><ul><li>What are effective duration and effective convexity and when are they useful? </li></ul><ul><li>What is empirical duration and how is it used with common stocks and other assets? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the static yield spread and the option-adjusted spread? </li></ul>
  8. 8. Chapter 18 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds <ul><li>What are effective duration and effective convexity and when are they useful? </li></ul><ul><li>What is empirical duration and how is it used with common stocks and other assets? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the static yield spread and the option-adjusted spread? </li></ul>
  9. 9. The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation <ul><li>The present-value model </li></ul>Where: P m =the current market price of the bond n = the number of years to maturity C i = the annual coupon payment for bond i i = the prevailing yield to maturity for this bond issue P p =the par value of the bond
  10. 10. The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation <ul><li>If yield < coupon rate, bond will be priced at a premium to its par value </li></ul><ul><li>If yield > coupon rate, bond will be priced at a discount to its par value </li></ul><ul><li>Price-yield relationship is convex (not a straight line) </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Present Value Model <ul><li>The value of the bond equals the present value of its expected cash flows </li></ul>where: P m = the current market price of the bond n = the number of years to maturity C i = the annual coupon payment for Bond I i = the prevailing yield to maturity for this bond issue P p = the par value of the bond
  12. 12. The Yield Model <ul><li>The expected yield on the bond may be computed from the market price </li></ul>where: i = the discount rate that will discount the cash flows to equal the current market price of the bond
  13. 13. Computing Bond Yields <ul><li>Yield Measure Purpose </li></ul>Nominal Yield Measures the coupon rate Current yield Measures current income rate Promised yield to maturity Measures expected rate of return for bond held to maturity Promised yield to call Measures expected rate of return for bond held to first call date Realized (horizon) yield Measures expected rate of return for a bond likely to be sold prior to maturity. It considers specified reinvestment assumptions and an estimated sales price. It can also measure the actual rate of return on a bond during some past period of time.
  14. 14. Nominal Yield <ul><li>Measures the coupon rate that a bond investor receives as a percent of the bond’s par value </li></ul>
  15. 15. Current Yield <ul><li>Similar to dividend yield for stocks </li></ul><ul><li>Important to income oriented investors </li></ul><ul><li>CY = C i /P m </li></ul><ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>CY = the current yield on a bond </li></ul><ul><li>C i = the annual coupon payment of bond i </li></ul><ul><li>P m = the current market price of the bond </li></ul>
  16. 16. Promised Yield to Maturity <ul><li>Widely used bond yield figure </li></ul><ul><li>Assumes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Investor holds bond to maturity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All the bond’s cash flow is reinvested at the computed yield to maturity </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Computing the Promised Yield to Maturity <ul><li>Solve for i that will equate the current price to all cash flows from the bond to maturity, similar to IRR </li></ul>
  18. 18. Computing Promised Yield to Call <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P m = market price of the bond </li></ul><ul><li>C i = annual coupon payment </li></ul><ul><li>nc = number of years to first call </li></ul><ul><li>P c = call price of the bond </li></ul>
  19. 19. Realized (Horizon) Yield Present-Value Method
  20. 20. Calculating Future Bond Prices <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P f = estimated future price of the bond </li></ul><ul><li>C i = annual coupon payment </li></ul><ul><li>n = number of years to maturity </li></ul><ul><li>hp = holding period of the bond in years </li></ul><ul><li>i = expected semiannual rate at the end of the holding period </li></ul>
  21. 21. Yield Adjustments for Tax-Exempt Bonds <ul><li>Where: </li></ul><ul><li>FTEY = fully taxable yield equivalent </li></ul><ul><li>i = the promised yield on the tax exempt bond </li></ul><ul><li>T = the amount and type of tax exemption (i.e., the investor’s marginal tax rate) </li></ul>
  22. 22. Bond Valuation Using Spot Rates <ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><li>P m = the market price of the bond </li></ul><ul><li>C t = the cash flow at time t </li></ul><ul><li>n = the number of years </li></ul><ul><li>i t = the spot rate for Treasury securities at maturity t </li></ul>
  23. 23. What Determines Interest Rates <ul><li>Inverse relationship with bond prices </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamental determinants of interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>i = RFR + I + RP </li></ul><ul><li>where: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RFR = real risk-free rate of interest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I = expected rate of inflation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RP = risk premium </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. What Determines Interest Rates <ul><li>Effect of economic factors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>real growth rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tightness or ease of capital market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>expected inflation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>or supply and demand of loanable funds </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Impact of bond characteristics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>credit quality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>term to maturity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>indenture provisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>foreign bond risk including exchange rate risk and country risk </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Term Structure of Interest Rates <ul><li>It is a static function that relates the term to maturity to the yield to maturity for a sample of bonds at a given point in time. </li></ul><ul><li>Term Structure Theories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expectations hypothesis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Liquidity preference hypothesis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Segmented market hypothesis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trading implications of the term structure </li></ul>
  26. 26. Spot Rates and Forward Rates <ul><li>Creating the Theoretical Spot Rate Curve </li></ul><ul><li>Calculating Forward Rates from the Spot Rate Curve </li></ul>
  27. 27. Expectations Hypothesis <ul><li>Any long-term interest rate simply represents the geometric mean of current and future one-year interest rates expected to prevail over the maturity of the issue </li></ul>
  28. 28. Liquidity Preference Theory <ul><li>Long-term securities should provide higher returns than short-term obligations because investors are willing to sacrifice some yields to invest in short-maturity obligations to avoid the higher price volatility of long-maturity bonds </li></ul>
  29. 29. Segmented-Market Hypothesis <ul><li>Different institutional investors have different maturity needs that lead them to confine their security selections to specific maturity segments </li></ul>
  30. 30. Trading Implications of the Term Structure <ul><li>Information on maturities can help you formulate yield expectations by simply observing the shape of the yield curve </li></ul>
  31. 31. Yield Spreads <ul><li>Segments: government bonds, agency bonds, and corporate bonds </li></ul><ul><li>Sectors: prime-grade municipal bonds versus good-grade municipal bonds, AA utilities versus BBB utilities </li></ul><ul><li>Coupons or seasoning within a segment or sector </li></ul><ul><li>Maturities within a given market segment or sector </li></ul>
  32. 32. Yield Spreads <ul><li>Magnitudes and direction of yield spreads can change over time </li></ul>
  33. 33. What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Bond price change is measured as the percentage change in the price of the bond </li></ul>Where: EPB = the ending price of the bond BPB = the beginning price of the bond
  34. 34. What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Four Factors </li></ul><ul><li>1. Par value </li></ul><ul><li>2. Coupon </li></ul><ul><li>3. Years to maturity </li></ul><ul><li>4. Prevailing market interest rate </li></ul>
  35. 35. What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>Five observed behaviors </li></ul><ul><li>1. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields (interest rates) </li></ul><ul><li>2. For a given change in yields, longer maturity bonds post larger price changes, thus bond price volatility is directly related to maturity </li></ul><ul><li>3. Price volatility increases at a diminishing rate as term to maturity increases </li></ul><ul><li>4. Price movements resulting from equal absolute increases or decreases in yield are not symmetrical </li></ul><ul><li>5. Higher coupon issues show smaller percentage price fluctuation for a given change in yield, thus bond price volatility is inversely related to coupon </li></ul>
  36. 36. What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds <ul><li>The maturity effect </li></ul><ul><li>The coupon effect </li></ul><ul><li>The yield level effect </li></ul><ul><li>Some trading strategies </li></ul>
  37. 37. The Duration Measure <ul><li>Since price volatility of a bond varies inversely with its coupon and directly with its term to maturity, it is necessary to determine the best combination of these two variables to achieve your objective </li></ul><ul><li>A composite measure considering both coupon and maturity would be beneficial </li></ul>
  38. 38. The Duration Measure <ul><li>Developed by Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938 </li></ul><ul><li>Where: </li></ul><ul><li>t = time period in which the coupon or principal payment occurs </li></ul><ul><li>C t = interest or principal payment that occurs in period t </li></ul><ul><li>i = yield to maturity on the bond </li></ul>
  39. 39. Characteristics of Macaulay Duration <ul><li>Duration of a bond with coupons is always less than its term to maturity because duration gives weight to these interim payments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A zero-coupon bond’s duration equals its maturity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There is an inverse relationship between duration and coupon </li></ul><ul><li>There is a positive relationship between term to maturity and duration, but duration increases at a decreasing rate with maturity </li></ul><ul><li>There is an inverse relationship between YTM and duration </li></ul><ul><li>Sinking funds and call provisions can have a dramatic effect on a bond’s duration </li></ul>
  40. 40. Modified Duration and Bond Price Volatility <ul><li>An adjusted measure of duration can be used to approximate the price volatility of an option-free (straight) bond </li></ul>Where: m = number of payments a year YTM = nominal YTM
  41. 41. Modified Duration and Bond Price Volatility <ul><li>Bond price movements will vary proportionally with modified duration for small changes in yields </li></ul><ul><li>An estimate of the percentage change in bond prices equals the change in yield time modified duration </li></ul>Where:  P = change in price for the bond P = beginning price for the bond D mod = the modified duration of the bond  i = yield change in basis points divided by 100
  42. 42. Trading Strategies Using Modified Duration <ul><li>Longest-duration security provides the maximum price variation </li></ul><ul><li>If you expect a decline in interest rates, increase the average modified duration of your bond portfolio to experience maximum price volatility </li></ul><ul><li>If you expect an increase in interest rates, reduce the average modified duration to minimize your price decline </li></ul><ul><li>Note that the modified duration of your portfolio is the market-value-weighted average of the modified durations of the individual bonds in the portfolio </li></ul>
  43. 43. Bond Duration in Years for Bonds Yielding 6 Percent Under Different Terms
  44. 44. Bond Convexity <ul><li>Modified duration is a linear approximation of bond price change for small changes in market yields </li></ul><ul><li>However, price changes are not linear, but a curvilinear (convex) function </li></ul>
  45. 45. Price-Yield Relationship for Bonds <ul><li>The graph of prices relative to yields is not a straight line, but a curvilinear relationship </li></ul><ul><li>This can be applied to a single bond, a portfolio of bonds, or any stream of future cash flows </li></ul><ul><li>The convex price-yield relationship will differ among bonds or other cash flow streams depending on the coupon and maturity </li></ul><ul><li>The convexity of the price-yield relationship declines slower as the yield increases </li></ul><ul><li>Modified duration is the percentage change in price for a nominal change in yield </li></ul>
  46. 46. Modified Duration <ul><li>For small changes this will give a good estimate, but this is a linear estimate on the tangent line </li></ul>
  47. 47. Determinants of Convexity <ul><li>The convexity is the measure of the curvature and is the second derivative of price with resect to yield ( d 2 P/di 2 ) divided by price </li></ul><ul><li>Convexity is the percentage change in dP/di for a given change in yield </li></ul>
  48. 48. Determinants of Convexity <ul><li>Inverse relationship between coupon and convexity </li></ul><ul><li>Direct relationship between maturity and convexity </li></ul><ul><li>Inverse relationship between yield and convexity </li></ul>
  49. 49. Modified Duration-Convexity Effects <ul><li>Changes in a bond’s price resulting from a change in yield are due to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bond’s modified duration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bond’s convexity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Relative effect of these two factors depends on the characteristics of the bond (its convexity) and the size of the yield change </li></ul><ul><li>Convexity is desirable </li></ul>
  50. 50. Duration and Convexity for Callable Bonds <ul><li>Issuer has option to call bond and pay off with proceeds from a new issue sold at a lower yield </li></ul><ul><li>Embedded option </li></ul><ul><li>Difference in duration to maturity and duration to first call </li></ul><ul><li>Combination of a noncallable bond plus a call option that was sold to the issuer </li></ul><ul><li>Any increase in value of the call option reduces the value of the callable bond </li></ul>
  51. 51. Option Adjusted Duration <ul><li>Based on the probability that the issuing firm will exercise its call option </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Duration of the non-callable bond </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Duration of the call option </li></ul></ul>
  52. 52. Convexity of Callable Bonds <ul><li>Noncallable bond has positive convexity </li></ul><ul><li>Callable bond has negative convexity </li></ul>
  53. 53. Limitations of Macaulay and Modified Duration <ul><li>Percentage change estimates using modified duration only are good for small-yield changes </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to determine the interest-rate sensitivity of a portfolio of bonds when there is a change in interest rates and the yield curve experiences a nonparallel shift </li></ul><ul><li>Initial assumption that cash flows from the bond are not affected by yield changes </li></ul>
  54. 54. Effective Duration <ul><li>Measure of the interest rate sensitivity of an asset </li></ul><ul><li>Use a pricing model to estimate the market prices surrounding a change in interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Effective Duration Effective Convexity </li></ul>P- = the estimated price after a downward shift in interest rates P+ = the estimated price after a upward shift in interest rates P = the current price S = the assumed shift in the term structure
  55. 55. Effective Duration <ul><li>Effective duration greater than maturity </li></ul><ul><li>Negative effective duration </li></ul><ul><li>Empirical duration </li></ul>
  56. 56. Empirical Duration <ul><li>Actual percent change for an asset in response to a change in yield during a specified time period </li></ul>
  57. 57. Yield Spreads With Embedded Options <ul><li>Static Yield Spreads </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider the total term structure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Option-Adjusted Spreads </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider changes in the term structure and alternative estimates of the volatility of interest rates </li></ul></ul>
  58. 58. The Internet Investments Online <ul><li>http://www.bondcalc.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.bondmarkets.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.pimco.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.bonds-online.com </li></ul>
  59. 59. <ul><li>End of Chapter 18 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds </li></ul></ul>
  60. 60. Future topics Chapter 19 <ul><li>Bond Portfolio Management Strategies </li></ul>
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