Nws binghamton briefing7_2013_0703


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Nws binghamton briefing7_2013_0703

  1. 1. Search: National Weather Service Binghamton NWS Binghamton Issued: 7/03/2013 10:00 AM Follow Us: @NWS Binghamton NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Flood Potential – Briefing #7 Issued 10:00 AM Wed 07/03/2013 FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta. FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre. This briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only: NWS Binghamton Warning Coordination Meteorologist Dave Nicosia
  2. 2. Summary  High pressure off the east coast continues to build westward and is pushing the core of the deep tropical moisture a little west of region.  Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon with the day’s heating and taper off this evening after sunset.  Locally there still is a chance for heavy rain and flash flood problems.  Potential for flash flooding is less than the last few days therefore flash flood watch has been allowed to expire.  RIVERS: Chenango and Tioughnioga continue to recede; Upper Mohawk continues near Moderate Flood and will remain nearly steady. Susquehanna River now NOT expected to flood in NY or PA.  No other river or lake flooding expected.
  3. 3. Deep Tropical Moisture Feed Tuesday Blocking High Pressures Tropical Moisture Feed HH L
  4. 4. Core of Deep Tropical Moisture a little west of region Today. Blocking High Pressures Tropical Moisture Feed shifting west HH L
  5. 5. RIVER FORECASTS AS OF 10 AM WED 7/3/13 Mohawk River • Utica (minor to moderate) No other points expected to exceed flood stage. FOR LATEST UPDATES GO TO: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=bgm
  6. 6. With wet ground, how much rain would it take for Flash Flooding? • Twin Tiers of NY/PA, and Mohawk Valley southward in NY: 0.6-1.0 inches in 1 hour, or 1.0 to 1.4 inches in 3 hours, could cause flash flooding. • Rest of Central NY/Northeast PA: Generally 1-1.5 inches in 1 hour, or at least 1.5-2.0 inches in 3 hours, could cause flash flooding. Flash Flood Rainfall Threshold for 1 hour Flash Flood Rainfall Threshold for 3 hours
  7. 7. Rainfall Timing - Showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon with the day’s heating and last into the evening. - Thunderstorms will taper down after sunset. - For some spots heavy rain could fall and still cause localized flash flooding. - Chances are less today for flash flooding. - Coverage expected to be greatest in the upper Finger Lakes to upper Mohawk Valley near a frontal boundary. - Also mountains of northeast Pa to the Catskills will have higher chances for thunderstorms.
  8. 8. Thunderstorm Outlook Today Lowest probability of thunderstorms today
  9. 9. Maintain Situational Awareness – General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/ Latest river stages and forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BGM Northeast Region Radar Loop: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Other Links: