Nws binghamton briefing5_2013_0702 (2)


Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Nws binghamton briefing5_2013_0702 (2)

  1. 1. NOAA/NWS Binghamton Flood Potential Briefing #5 Issued 2:00 pm July 2nd, 2013 David J. Nicosia Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
  2. 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State. - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
  3. 3. Summary  Deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will continue until at least Thursday.  Potential continues for localized MAJOR flash flooding daily through at least Thursday with each round of showers and thunderstorms that forms.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain developing over central NY and northeast PA at present.  Watching a larger batch of showers and thunderstorms over the southeast U.S. and Mid Atlantic that is heading north.  Some models bring it through our region tonight, others weaken it.  If this area of rain hits us, it would make conditions worse.  Susquehanna, Chenango and Tioughnioga Rivers expecting minor flooding.  Headwater river points, streams and poor drainage areas in all river basins will remain vulnerable to rapid rises and flash flooding with locally heavy rain.  Rest of larger rivers and lakes not expected to flood at this time.
  4. 4. Previous events: June 28-29, 2013
  5. 5. Previous events: July 1-2, 2013
  6. 6. North Main Street Sherburne, NY last night Courtesy: Rick L. Crow
  7. 7. 7 day observed rainfall
  8. 8. 7 day percent of normal: Purple 300 to 600% of normal!!! > 600% of normal!!!!
  9. 9. Deep Tropical Moisture Feed through at least Thursday Blocking High Pressures Deep Tropical Moisture Feed HH Remnants of Gulf System
  10. 10. 1230 pm Radar Scattered showers/thunderstorms developing Next batch of heavy rain heading north
  11. 11. Model Radar as of 5 pm this evening
  12. 12. Model Radar as of 8 pm this evening
  13. 13. Model Radar as of 11 pm this evening
  14. 14. 72 hr rainfall amounts used in river models
  15. 15. 30% Chance of Moderate River Flooding in highlighted area below.
  16. 16. Minor flooding main branch of Susquehanna River in NY Moderate flooding Chenango River Sherburne
  17. 17. Minor flooding upper Mohawk River
  18. 18. Flash Flood Rainfall Thresholds • Twin-Tier region of NY/PA around 1 inch of rain needed in 3 hours to cause flash flooding (red). • Rest of area between 1.25 and 2.5 inches needed in 3 hours for flash flooding to begin.
  19. 19. Rainfall Timing - Showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and will continue this evening - Another batch of heavy rain possible later this evening?? - Locally very heavy rain will fall and cause more localized flash flooding. - Wednesday and Thursday likely will see the same pattern with an afternoon and evening peak in shower and thunderstorm activity and associated highest risk for flash flooding. - Pattern could break down by Friday with a reduced threat for flash flooding.
  20. 20. River Crest Timing • Tributaries of Susquehanna river in NY crest today, tonight and Wednesday morning. • Main Branch of Susquehanna River in NY crests Wednesday night/early Thursday. • Susquehanna River in PA crests Thursday below flood stage. • Rest of larger rivers and lakes should remain below flood stage. • Any smaller river tributary, stream, or poor drainage area will be susceptible to rapid rises and flash flooding until Thursday. • Biggest threat continues to be localized MAJOR flash flooding.
  21. 21. Current River Stages and Forecasts http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BGM
  22. 22. For continuous updates: – General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/