Nws binghamton briefing3_2013_0701 3pm


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Nws binghamton briefing3_2013_0701 3pm

  1. 1. NOAA/NWS Binghamton Flood Potential Briefing #3 Issued 2 PM July 1st, 2013 David J. Nicosia Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
  2. 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State. - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
  3. 3. Overview  Deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will continue until late this week.  Potential continues for localized MAJOR flash flooding through at least Wednesday with each round of showers and thunderstorms.  Upper Finger Lakes potential is increasing, may extend flash flood watch there too.  Many rivers and streams running high and will continue high all week.  Some larger rivers will see at least minor flooding with the possibility of moderate flooding in some locations.  Finger Lakes still will see only minor rises.  Delaware River Basin Reservoirs- rises of 1 to 3 feet.  Heavy rain arriving now with increased flash flood potential for into tonight.  Another round of heavy rain possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Any showers and thunderstorms will have potential for localized heavy rainfall through at least Wednesday. Hard to pin-point time and exact locations.
  4. 4. Deep Tropical Moisture Feed through at least Wednesday Today and Tonight’s wave supporting heavy rain potential Wednesday’s wave supporting additional heavy rain potential?? Deep Tropical Moisture Feed
  5. 5. 30% Chance of Moderate River Flooding in highlighted area below. Significant flooding not anticipated in the Finger Lakes drainage
  6. 6. Flood Watches Eastern Seaboard Heat Advisories/Warnings West!!
  7. 7. Blocking High Pressures, persistent heat west, persistent southerly flow in the east H H HEAT!!! Deep persistent southerly flow of tropical moisture
  8. 8. Watches, Warnings and Advisories in Effect Flash Flood Watch (Dark Green) in effect for portions of Central NY and Northeast PA through Tuesday morning. Conditions favorable for localized heavy rain and flash flooding, along with possible river flooding. Flood Warning (Light Green) currently in effect for the Mohawk River at Utica and the Susquehanna River at Conklin. A flash flood warnings (Dark Red)
  9. 9. Flash Flood Rainfall Thresholds • Finger Lakes region could withstand up to 2-3 inches of rain in 3-hours to cause flash flooding. • Other areas of Central NY will take just 1.5-2 inches of rain in 3-hours. • Most of northeast PA would need less than 2 inches to send small streams out of banks.
  10. 10. Timing • First batch of heavy rain into tonight. • Another batch of heavy rain possible late Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. • Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday could lead to excessive rainfall. • Hard to pin-point timing beyond tonight.
  11. 11. Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding through Tonight
  12. 12. Radar at 1230 pm First batch of rain ending tonight. Scattered Thunderstorms for Tuesday??
  13. 13. Radar at 1230 pm Wednesdays rain?? Watching Gulf…
  14. 14. Rainfall as of 8 am
  15. 15. This Morning’s Rainfall Estimates
  16. 16. Additional rainfall forecast through 8 am Thursday.
  17. 17. Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna. River Forecasts Through 8 AM Thursday Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from ¾” in Finger Lakes to 2-3” in northeast Pennsylvania into the southern Tier of NY and the Catskills. Minor river flooding expected at this time in the Susquehanna Basin. Potential for moderate flooding in Northeast PA to Upper Susquehanna and Upper Delaware in NY. Need to keep watching these areas very closely as event unfolds. Know your local action, and flood stages at gauges in your area.
  18. 18. Current River Stages and Forecasts http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BGM
  19. 19. For continuous updates: – General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs – River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/