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NOAA/NWS Binghamton
Flood Potential
Briefing #2
Issued 10:00 AM July 1st, 2013
David J. Nicosia
Warning Coordination Meteo...
This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service
Area only
- This area includes but is
not limited to cities such as
Sy...
Overview
 Deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will continue until late
this week.
 Potential continues for localize...
Deep Tropical Moisture Feed through
at least Wednesday
Today and Tonight’s
wave supporting
heavy rain potential
Wednesday’...
Watches, Warnings and Advisories in Effect
Flash Flood Watch (Dark Green)
in effect for portions of Central NY
and Northea...
Flash Flood Rainfall Thresholds
• Finger Lakes region could withstand up to 2-3 inches of rain in 3-hours to cause flash
f...
Timing
• First batch of heavy rain late morning and early
afternoon today.
• Another batch of heavy rain arrives later thi...
Radar at 900 am
Next batch of rain coming
for later afternoon and
tonight.
First batch of rain for
next few hours.
Rainfall Forecasts used for River
Models through 8 AM Thursday.
Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from
¾...
Highest threats will be to the
tributaries and reservoirs of the
Delaware river basin, plus areas
of the Upper Susquehanna...
30% Chance of Moderate River
Flooding in highlighted area below.
For continuous updates:
– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm
– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forec...
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Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0701 (2)

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Transcript of "Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0701 (2)"

  1. 1. NOAA/NWS Binghamton Flood Potential Briefing #2 Issued 10:00 AM July 1st, 2013 David J. Nicosia Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
  2. 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State. - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
  3. 3. Overview  Deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will continue until late this week.  Potential continues for localized MAJOR flash flooding through at least Wednesday with each round of showers and thunderstorms.  Less chance in upper Finger Lakes where it has been drier.  Many rivers and streams running high and will continue high all week.  Soil moisture is running high most areas.  Some larger rivers will see at least minor flooding with the possibility of moderate flooding in some locations.  Finger Lakes will see only minor rises.  Delaware River Basin Reservoirs- rises of 1 to 3 feet.  Heavy rain arriving now with increased flash flood potential for this afternoon into tonight.  Another round of heavy rain possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Any showers and thunderstorms will have potential for localized heavy rainfall through at least Wednesday. Hard to pin-point time and exact locations.
  4. 4. Deep Tropical Moisture Feed through at least Wednesday Today and Tonight’s wave supporting heavy rain potential Wednesday’s wave supporting additional heavy rain potential?? Deep Tropical Moisture Feed
  5. 5. Watches, Warnings and Advisories in Effect Flash Flood Watch (Dark Green) in effect for portions of Central NY and Northeast PA through Tuesday morning. Conditions favorable for localized heavy rain and flash flooding, along with possible river flooding. Flood Warning (Light Green) currently in effect for the Mohawk River at Utica and the Susquehanna River at Conklin. A flash flood warnings (Dark Red)
  6. 6. Flash Flood Rainfall Thresholds • Finger Lakes region could withstand up to 2-3 inches of rain in 3-hours to cause flash flooding. • Other areas of Central NY will take just 1.5-2 inches of rain in 3-hours. • Most of northeast PA would need less than 2 inches to send small streams out of banks.
  7. 7. Timing • First batch of heavy rain late morning and early afternoon today. • Another batch of heavy rain arrives later this afternoon and lasts into tonight. • Another batch of heavy rain possible late Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. • Isolated showers and thunderstorms at any time could lead to excessive rainfall through at least Wednesday. • Hard to pin-point timing beyond tonight.
  8. 8. Radar at 900 am Next batch of rain coming for later afternoon and tonight. First batch of rain for next few hours.
  9. 9. Rainfall Forecasts used for River Models through 8 AM Thursday. Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from ¾” in Finger Lakes to 2-3” in northeast Pennsylvania into the southern Tier of NY and the Catskills.
  10. 10. Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna. River Forecasts Through 8 AM Thursday Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from ¾” in Finger Lakes to 2-3” in northeast Pennsylvania into the southern Tier of NY and the Catskills. Minor river flooding expected at this time in the Susquehanna Basin. Potential for moderate flooding in Northeast PA to Upper Susquehanna and Upper Delaware in NY. Need to keep watching these areas very closely as event unfolds. Know your local action, and flood stages at gauges in your area.
  11. 11. 30% Chance of Moderate River Flooding in highlighted area below.
  12. 12. For continuous updates: – General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs – River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/
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