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Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612

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  • 1. NWS BinghamtonHeavy Rain/Flood PotentialBriefing #2Issued 400 pm Wednesday 06/12/2013Jim BrewsterService Hydrologist/MeteorologistNational Weather ServiceBinghamton, NY
  • 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton ServiceArea only- This area includesbut isnot limitedtocitiessuch asSyracuse,Utica,Ithaca,Elmira,BinghamtonandOneontain NY State.- This area includesbut isnot limitedtocitiessuch asTowanda, Montrose,Scranton,Wilkes-BarreinPA.
  • 3. Executive Summary- An unusually strong low pressure system will track from Iowa to across theOhio Valley tonight, to off the New Jersey coast by Thursday evening.- Rain will develop Thursday Morning and last until Thursday night.- Potential exists for a broad area of 1 to 3 inches northern half of our area to2 to 4 inches across northeastPAand southeastNY.- Lake and Reservoir levels could rise 1 to 2 feet. Spill flows on regionalreservoirs will likely increase.- Flash floodpotential will be moderate to high on smaller river tributaries,streams, urban andflood prone areas.-The timing of highest potential for flash flooding would be Thursdaymorning until the evening.-The timing of highest potential for river flooding wouldbe Thursday nightthroughFriday night.
  • 4. Recent PrecipitationSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonHighlights- Above normal rainfall hasoccurred in the last twoweeks across the FingerLakes region to the UpperSusquehanna and UpperDelaware.- Below normal rain hasbeen the case in theChemung and MainStemSusquehanna.
  • 5. Current Status of River and Stream FlowsSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonStream flows running well above normal at many gauges for this time of year
  • 6. Forecast Rainfall through Thursday NightSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/2013400 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonRainfall rangingfrom 1 to 2 inchesextending southfrom the FingerLakes to theSouthern Tier with2 to 4 inches acrossnortheast PA andthe Catskills.
  • 7. Rainfall Timing: Model Projected Radar5 am Thu11 am Thu 2 pm Thu8 pm Thu
  • 8. Potential for mainly Minor River FloodingSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonMinor flooding = Orange DotsModerate flooding = Red DotsMajor Flooding = Purple DotsHighest threatswill be to thetributariesand reservoirs of theDelaware river basin, plus areasof the Upper Susquehanna.
  • 9. Plausible Worst Case Scenario(not what we currently expect is likely to happen)• Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain.• Minor flooding expands to most river points withlocally moderate river flooding in hardest hitbasins.• Significant lake and reservoir rises of 2-3 feet ormore.• Widespread moderate to severe flash flooding.• Likelihood of this is small 5-10%.
  • 10. Potential ImpactsSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamton- Significant rises of area rivers and lakes likely tomorrow into Friday.- Minor River Flooding possible at many gauges in the Susquehanna inNY and the Delaware basin from Thursday night into Friday night.Headwaters mostvulnerable. Slight potential for isolated moderateflooding.- Good chance for small stream flash flooding and urban flooding.- Initial flood planning should be considered in all major basins.
  • 11. NWS Binghamton-led audio/webinar will be held forthe Delaware River Basin countiesonlyat 11:30 AM Thursday.- Another PDF Briefing will be issued Thursday morning.Additional decisions for webinar briefings in other areas willbe made as the event unfolds.For continuous updates:– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs– River Forecasts:http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm– Probability River Forecasts:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/

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