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Nws binghamton briefing1_2013_0630

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  • 1. NWS Binghamton Hazardous Weather Update Briefing #1 Issued 9:30 PM June 30, 2013 Priscilla Nicosia Service Meteorologist National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
  • 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State. - This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
  • 3. Overview  Slow moving storm system will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm activity to portions of Central NY and all of Northeast PA.  Torrential rain and flooding occurred across these areas Thursday night .  Localized flash flooding is a concern for our area with urban flood problems and road washouts possible, along with rises on small creeks and tributaries and ultimately main stem rivers.  Soil conditions are moist across the area after the rains from Thursday night and again Sunday afternoon.  Minor river flooding is predicted at this time for some locations on the north branch of the Susquehanna and the Upper Delaware. Smaller tributaries could change quickly if thunderstorms become stationary.
  • 4. Watches, Warnings and Advisories in Effect Flash Flood Watch (Dark Green) in effect for portions of Central NY and Northeast PA Monday through Tuesday morning. Conditions becoming favorable for localized heavy rain and flash flooding, along with possible river flooding. Minor Flood Warning (Light Green) currently in effect for the Mohawk River at Utica and the Susquehanna River at Conklin. An urban and small stream flood advisory (Light Green) is in effect for the Elmira-Corning area tonight. A flash flood warning (Dark Red) is in effect for Montgomery and Schoharie counties tonight.
  • 5. Flash Flood Rainfall Guidance • Finger Lakes region in CNY could withstand up to 2-3 inches of rain in 3-hours. • Other areas of CNY will take just 1.5-2 inches of rain in 3-hours. • Most of NEPA would need less than 2 inches to send small streams out of banks. • Rain expected Monday into Monday night could come down hard and fast.
  • 6. Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna. River Forecasts Through 8 PM Wednesday Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from ¾” in Finger Lakes to 2-4” in northeast Pennsylvania into the southern Tier of NY and the Catskills. Minor river flooding expected at this time in the Susquehanna Basin. Headwater point forecasts could change quickly! Need to keep watching these areas very closely as event unfolds. Know your local action, and flood stages at gauges in your area.
  • 7. Forecast Rainfall through 8 PM Wednesday. Basin average rainfall put into river models ranges from ¾” in Finger Lakes to 2-4” in northeast Pennsylvania into the southern Tier of NY and the Catskills.
  • 8. Timing • Heavy rain spreading into northeast Pennsylvania after noon on Monday and translating north through the evening. • Flash Flooding could occur any time guidance is exceeded. Should river flooding develop, it would be overnight and Tuesday.
  • 9. No Conference Calls Planned. For continuous updates: – General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs – River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/