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  • 1Home Help Service (HHS), Holiday Centre for the Elderly 2. Homes for the elderly, Nursing Homes
  • strengthening the support for infirm and demented elders, increasing the amount of supplements for residential care homes for demented elderly, 32billion for elderly in 2033
  • The pilot scheme is one of the latest initiatives to assist senior citizens to continue to live in the community
  • Clip 2香港的人口正不斷老化,根據2006年中期人口統計 (Census and Statistics Department),65歲以上的長者佔全港人口的12.5% (86萬人),預計至2016年及2033年,將會分別增加至佔總人口的14% 和27% ,即逾四分之一的人口將是65歲或以上的長者
  • gross domestic product (GDP), total market value of the goods and services produced by a nation’s economy during a specific period of time. It includes all final goods and services—that is, those that are produced by the economic resources located in that nation regardless of their ownership and that are not resold in any form估計人口老化對佔GDP 增長比例影響所及,在2025 年至2050 年間,歐洲增長將每年減低0.5%;日本則每年減低0.6%;美國更將每年減低1.5%。 (John Mauldin - www.hkej.com)Clip 7
  • In 2007, salaries tax account for 23% of the total revenue collection.
  • Recurrent government subvention ($32,025,104,000) + Capital government subvention ($ 476,123,000) = almost 90% of total expense ($ 36, 572,241,000)Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report 2009 - 2010
  • 全民退休計劃經驗證明是有一定的原則及持續的問題,需要考慮是否可以維持。我們對這個建議有很大的保留,政府亦不會貿貿然推行全民退休保障,對這課題,我希望議員小心處理。
  • Attract quality migrants, QMAS: modification relaxing the restrictions on age limit and other prerequisites  increase no. of eligible migrants
  • Ma : part 2
  • In 2018,the birth rate cannot match with the entire rate
  • 1Not the only way to solve the aging problem.2Although the elderly who entire in mainland china belongs to the Hong Kong Population, in economic prospect, they are not taken into account.3adpoting the policy of attracting foreign students to stay in Hk for learning purposes can also solve the aging problem.
  • Out team think治標不治本,way of Management expenses and health care cost needed to be paid. 理工大學應用社會科學系助理教授鍾劍華 Rich people usualyy got their own house already. And the poor old people is negected by the Housing Society.He thinks…
  • likely to become a necessity as the population ages increase.
  • Apart from proposed increase in child allowance.
  • Briefly explain the quality migrant admissionschemeTalents bring about: not only offspring, but also entrepreneurship  enhance competitiveness

Dsd Dsd Presentation Transcript

  • Solving the economic challenges of population aging in contemporary Hong Kong Members: Alan, Au Wai Lun (51867690) Kevin, Wong Tsz Wai (52569960)Anthony, Chow Lai Yin (52621822) Thomas, Lai Chung yam (52569984)
  • Content1. “Population aging” in Hong Kong2. Causes of “Aging population”3. Induced economic challenges of aging population  Social welfare expenditure  Medical expenditure  Impact on overall economic prospect4. Solution?-----Conflicting views5. Our suggestions
  • Definition of Population AgingAccording to World Health Organization(WHO):1. When population aged 65 or above ≥ 7% of the totalpopulation2. When population aged 65 or above ≥ 14% of the totalpopulation
  • Current Situation in HKAccording to “The Profile of Older Persons, 2006”published by Census and StatisticsDepartment:“Over the past 45 years, the proportion of older persons(aged 65 or above) in the total population rises from2.8% in 1961 to 12.4% in 2006.” Hyper- Aging Aged aged society society society
  • Future Demographic Trend in HKRefer to the “Projection of Population Distribution”and “Hong Kong Population Projection” published byCensus and Statistics Department:“In 2019, population of older persons will jumpedfrom 890,000 in 2009 to 1,320,000 in 2019 (13% to17.2%)”“In 2039, the proportion of the population aged 65and over is projected to rise markedly from 13% in2009to 28% in 2039”
  • Two main factors (1)1. Low birth rate (1933 in 1981 to 987 in 2006)  Delay in marriage (23.9 to 28.2)  High divorce rate (0.4 to 2.5)  High child-raising cost  Changed mindset (family  individual)  Industrial  financial  Postponement of first birth (25.1 to 29.2)  Increased woman participation in labour market Source: Demographic Trends in Hong Kong 1981-2006
  • Two main factors (2)2. Long life span (79.4 for men, 85.5 for women)  Improved health care services  Improved social welfare  Improved social condition Source: Demographic Trends in Hong Kong 1981-2006
  • Three Dimensions1. Social Welfare expenditure2. Medical expenditure3. Impact on overall economic condition
  • Social welfare expenditure
  • Examples of social welfare for elderly in HK1. Community Support Services for the Elderly2. Residential Care Services for the Elderly3. Old Age Allowance4. Public Housing5. Senior Citizen Residences Scheme
  • 2012–13 Government expenditure for elderly Social welfare expenditure for 2012–13: $44 billion ,about 30% used for elderly Comparing 2012-13 Budget with 2010-11, expenditure for Elderly services has increased for -16%
  • Why expenditure increase? Make improvement of elderly services  Allocate extra $900 million to improve quality of 250 district elderly community centers  Additional 1,000 subsidized residential care places  Public transport concessions for the elderly and eligible people
  • Old Age Allowance and CSSA More than 10 billion is used In 2039, elderly population is about 28% of total population Money for Comprehensive Social Security Assistance(綜援) and Old Age Allowance
  • Housing Burden 67% of total population of elderly live in public housing in 2010 Senior Citizen Residences Scheme is carried out because of the increasing need of house. Land used for public housing Gov. bear the construction cost Government land selling income
  • Brief Summary The rate of growth of aging population keep accelerating With the increasing need of social welfare, Old Age Allowance, CSSA etc. the money used for elderly will be doubled or tripled. The tax income may not afford the burden of these needs.
  • Medical Expenditure
  • Medical Expenditure2 parts:1. Expenditure of Hospital Authority2. Reasons that population aging increases medical expense └ Chronic disease └ In-patients Staying (病人日數)
  • Expenditure of Hospital Authority 90% of incomes comes from government  HKD39.9 billion 2011-2012 for Medical (17% of recurrent Government expenditure, 27% in 2033) Expenditure prediction  2011 - 2012 39.9 billion  2012 - 2013 45.0 billion (+8%)  2032 - 2033 186.6 billion (+367.6%)Two main Expenditure (09-10)  Staff costs (26.7 Billion, about 73%)  Drugs + Medical supplies and equipment (HKD4.4 Billion, About 12%) Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report
  • Why population aging increases medical expense?• About 90% of the old people rely on the public medical service (50% of Hospital Authority expense)• 72% old people are Chronic Illness• Chronic disease • Drugs Expensive (Samaritan Fund for Drug Items) • Number of In-patients Staying about 50% is aged 65↑• The amount of the drugs expenses have obvious increase. (2012 – 2013 Inject $10 billion into the Samaritan Fund )• Number of old people have increased and will have a great jump in year 2019 (13% to 17.2%)
  • Impact on overall economic prospects
  • Burden on next generation In 2033, the elderly (aged >65) will account for 27% of total population Cf. 13.2% currently Source: Census and Statistics Department Increase proportion of aged pop. ( retired) Increase burden of working pop.( nearly every 4 labours support 1 elderly ppl.)
  • Slow down in economic growth Gross domestic product (GDP) , a main measure of level of production (econ. growth) of a region.Labour population in 1996, 2001 and 2006 - By Age Group 1996 2001 2006Age No. % No. % No. %15 - 24 462 885 14.5 444 244 12.9 433 746 12.125 - 34 1 011 015 31.8 953 725 27.7 912 351 25.535 - 44 910 170 28.6 1 066 020 31.0 999 188 28.045 - 54 504 866 15.9 701 551 20.4 878 393 24.655 - 64 232 173 7.3 218 462 6.4 288 960 8.165+ 61 388 1.9 53 990 1.6 59 746 1.7Total 3 182 497 100.0 3 437 992 100.0 3 572 384 100.0Source: Census and Statistics Department
  •  GDP growth greatly depend on working population proportion of elderly people Relative in working population Slowdown in GDP growthE.g. During 2025-2050, GDP growth in USA,Japan and Europe is expected to fall by 1.5%,0.6% and 0.5% respectivelysource: John Mauldin – www.hjej.com
  • Shrinking tax revenue In 2007, salary tax account for 23% of total gov. income proportion of elderly source: Inland and Revenue Department relative in working population in salary tax revenue
  • 人口金字塔 Population Pyramid 二零零一年年中 年齡組別 (基準) 二零一六年年中 年齡組別 二零三一年年中 Mid-2001 年齡組別 Mid-2031 Age group (Base) Age group Mid-2016 Age group 85+ 85+ 85+ 男性 女性 男性 女性 男性 女性 Male Female 80-84 Male Female 80-84 Male Female80-84 75-79 75-7975-79 70-74 70-7470-74 65-69 65-6965-69 60-64 60-6460-64 55-59 55-5955-59 50-54 50-5450-54 45-49 45-4945-49 40-44 40-4440-44 35-39 35-3935-39 30-34 30-3430-34 25-29 25-2925-29 20-24 20-2420-24 15-19 15-1915-19 10-14 10-1410-14 5-9 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 0-4 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 千人 千人 千人 Thousand persons Thousand persons Thousand persons 外籍家庭傭工 Foreign domestic helpers
  •  Tax revenue is the base of public cost (e.g social welfare for the elderly, infrastructure…)Example: ~ 90% operation cost of the public hospitals is subsidised by SAR government (Source: Hospital Authority Statistical Report 2009 – 2010) aged population  demand for long-term care service  gov. expenditure proportion of ederly  gov. tax income In the long run, gov. expenditure may keep falling short of its revenue
  • 1. Broaden the tax base by introducing GSTPurpose: to maintain budget balance and the quality ofpublic elderly servicesGovernment supports the idea  In 2006, Financial Secretary Henry Tang Ying Yen said “…….. the rapid ageing of Hong Kongs population will be accompanied by higher spending pressures on healthcare and services for the aged…….. the introduction of a GST (Goods and Service Tax) is a viable option for Hong Kong. This would secure the long-term sustainability of our revenue base and our capacity to meet public expenditure needs.”
  • 1. Broaden the tax base by introducing GSTHowever, The Democratic Party(民主黨), League of SocialDemocrats (社民連), the tourism and retailing sector alloppose the idea because- The living of citizens will become more difficult- GST will degrade the business environment of HK
  • 2. Boost fertility ratePurpose: to lower the proportion of elderly ppl. in HongKong and secure future labour forceGovernment supports the idea  According to an interview with The Financial Times in June, 2007 “……..Chief Executive Donald Tsang has called on Hong Kong couples to step up reproduction - at an astonishing rate of three children per family……..Tsang also set out his vision of Hong Kong as a city of 10 million people that rivals London and New York as an international financial center.”  Since 2006, the child allowance has increased from $4,0000 to $63000 in 2012 (Source: Inland Revenue Department)
  • 2. Boost fertility rate The Democratic Party and The Family Planning Association of Hong Kong do not support the idea  Member of The Democratic Party, Lo Chi Kwong said, “…….Population aging is an irreversible progress. Therefore, it is more rational to focus on solving the accompanied economic challenges than to increase the birth rate.” (Source: Suggestions of The Democratic Party on population policy, 2006)  The Family Planning Association of Hong Kong:  It is a personal decision to have children or not  Quality > Quantity
  • 3. Universal Retirement Pensions(URP)Purpose: Working group and the government putmoney into a pool collectively, which will be used aspensionsGovernment does not support the ideaSecretary for Health, Welfare and Food Chow Yat-ngok said in aLegislative Council Discussion in 2006” ……with rapid population aging, Universal RetirementPensions is not a viable option for Hong Kong…….it will causeunfairness to the 2 million workers who currently participatingMPF(強積金)…….the business environment of Hong Kong willbe profoundly damaged…….The government has muchreservation on the feasibility of Universal Retirement Pensions.”
  • 3. Universal Retirement Pensions(URP) The business sector also strongly opposes the idea  Affect their own interest  Resource is limited, should be given to those in need, not indiscriminately The Lion Rock Institute (獅子山學會)  Elderly support is family responsibility, not society responsibility  URP places high pressure on younger generation  URP is not sustainable as working force keep dropping
  • 3. Universal Retirement Pensions(URP) However, many grassroots organizations (eg. the Alliance for Universal Pensions), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions(工聯會), The Democratic Party(民主黨), League of Social Democrats (社民連), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Union (職工盟) etc. all strongly support the idea  MPF’s return is very susceptible to the economic condition  A large group of workers are excluded from MPF  Everyone’s responsibility to take care elderly people
  • 4. Medical reform Purpose: To reduce the medical expenditure of the government by means of “Voluntary Medical Insurance Scheme” (自願性醫療保險計劃) Government supports the idea  More people will choose private hospital relieve the pressure and expenditure of public hospital The Insurance sector also supports the idea  More income  Government provides subsidy to the insurance sector
  • 4. Medical reform However, the Society for Community Organization, The Democratic Party, the Lion Rock Institute, the Neighborhood & Workers Service Centre and a portion of citizens all oppose the idea  Main source of pressure of public hospital is chronic disease patients, but their insurance payment is very high  The quality of public hospital will be worsened lower class suffer  Government should lower the salary of admin. staff instead of ask citizens to buy insurance (eg. 4 billion is used as staff cost, only 3 billion is used to buy drugs)
  • Quality Migrants Admission Scheme http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6n8ig7 bvao
  • 5. Attract youthful immigrantsPurpose: young population, maintain or even enhance quality of workforce  marketcompetitiveness Gov. supports the idea: first introduced Quality Migrant Admission Scheme in2006, further modification has been made in 2007 Nicole Alpert: a research associate for The Lion Rock Institute1. “The Lion Rock study makes an important point: ``For resource-poor city-states like Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and Shenzhen, human resources areprobably the only resource that can render their economic growth sustainable.”2. “Even with immigration, we cannot “escape” an aging population and itstransformation of society - migrants age too - but open immigration policies will
  • Opposing views Mr. Ma Kwok-ming, Lingnan University part time lecturer Immigration of mainland talents  more intense competition among work force Helen Chan Wing-mui, Assistant Director of Immigration “We want to protect our local graduates, not increase competition for them.” Leslie Kwoh, The Standard “Illustrating the disadvantages of such an arrangement, however, thescheme has come under fire in recent months for allowing thousands of foreignworkers to come into Australia at below-market rates while many localgraduates still struggle to find work.”
  • 6. Babies of non-local parents Purpose: Solve population aging in the long run Government: Automatically giving babies of non-local parents permanent residency A spokesman for the Labour and Welfare Bureau: By 2018, Hong Kong will have about 300,000 postwar baby boomers who have retired. Many of these vacancies will not be filled as the citys birth rate has been decreasing at an increasingly alarming speed since the 1970s. A government manpower study: Hong Kongs workforce will be too small to power its economic growth by 2018 because of an ageing population,
  • 6. Babies of non-local parents Citizens: oppose the idea Non-local parents are not tax payers but they occupy the resources of Hong Kong Citizens Chance of Babies of non-local parents taking their parents to HK after they grow up Non-local parents usually take their babies back to Mainland, no contribution to HK
  • Our suggestions1) Proper Allocation of resources2) Flexible retirement age3) Import foreign medical staff4) Increase availability of tertiary education5) Provide more incentives to encourage parenthood6) Enhance open immigration policy
  • 1. Proper Allocation of resources Joyous Living scheme  waste of resources Target customers : Rich elderly Over ten thousand management expenses per month The Hospital Authority: Spend more money on salary than on drugs More resources should be put on medical and social welfare sector
  • 2. Flexible retirement age 70 Labour Force Participation Rate 64.3 62.8 61.4 60 50percentage 40 30 20 14.1 9.8 10 7.2 0 1991 1996 2001 Older Persons Whole Population Source: Elderly Commission
  • 2. Flexible retirement age USA - being gradually raised to 67 years old Japan – 69 years old Korea - 67 years old Flexible or part-time work arrangements for older persons Retire age depends on work type Would not block the advancement of younger workers, while retaining valuable insight and expertise for the employer
  • 3. Import foreign medical staff Follow our Asian neighbour – Singapore import more foreign medical servants (e.g. nurses, health assistants or even doctors) Reduce burden of local medical staff in public hospitals Maintain quality of public medical service Lower the risk of medical accident
  • 4. Increase availability of tertiary education Availability of government-funded tertiary education programmes ( esp. degree prog.) Maintain and enhance competitiveness of local workforce amid contemporary knowledge-based economy Offset the economic influence of population aging (eg. GDP) Well- educated labours are essential human resources in H.K. !!!
  • 5. Provide more incentives to encourage parenthood Offer more economic lure to encourage citizens to give birth to babies One-off tax allowance of new born babies family Continuous and direct subsidy for children-raising Lengthen maternal leave (eg. 10 weeks to 24 weeks) Setting up babies care centers… etc. Fertility rate
  • 6. Enhance open immigration policy Now operating base on a “point system” (分數制) Focus on attracting relatively young workforce from worldwide By focusing on age limit –introduce bonus points in 15-30 age category By offering incentives to young immigrants-e.g. housing allowance, Encourage them to settle down ( Morgan as ansuccessful case)
  • Universal Retirement Pension Good intention Will not be implemented It involves wealth redistribution Against Hong Kong’s political ideology: neo-liberalism Social trend: Individualized Too many uncertainties
  • Conclusion Hong Kong is not a welfare state All solutions are economically driven Solving population aging is only the presenting goal Underlying goal maintain competitiveness and economic growth
  • Reference http://www.bycensus2006.gov.hk/tc/data/data3/statistical_tables/index_tc.htm#C1 http://www.ird.gov.hk/dar/2009-10/table/tc/revenue.pdf http://www.hkcss.org.hk/60/souvenir_bk/p90-123.pdf http://www.britannica.com.ezproxy.cityu.edu.hk/EBchecked/topic/246647/gross-domestic- product-GDP/ http://www.elderlycommission.gov.hk/cn/library/ Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMWHNhGo7j4 http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistical_tables/index_tc.jsp?charsetID= 2&tableID=002&subjectID=1 (2011 pop.) http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/major_projects/2001_population_census/key_statistics_of_the_ 2001_population_census/index_tc.jsp http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistical_tables/index.jsp?charsetID=1&t ableID=008&subjectID=2 ( labour participation)
  • Reference http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_socsecu/sub_stati stics/ http://oklink.org.hk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id= 75&Itemid=120 http://www.lwb.gov.hk/chi/legco/14012009_2.htm http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubpress/page_speeches/sub_s peech2010k/ http://specials.mingpao.com/cfm/News.cfm?SpecialsID=166&Page= 1&News=ae8a006515d34065ceaca26776995143ebee00cf7c90414 ba7ba8a48 http://news.sina.com.hk/news/2/1/1/2032100/1.html
  • Reference http://www.swd.gov.hk/doc/finance/2011-12%20COR_Printed_SWD_Chi.pdf http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_elderly/ http://www.budget.gov.hk/2012/chi/highlights1.html http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_socsecu/sub_ssallowance/ http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_socsecu/sub_socialsecurity/ http://www.budget.gov.hk/2012/eng/pdf/head170.pdf http://www.hkhs.com/sen_20040903/chi/cheerful_court/news/news_tko.htm http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_elderly/sub_residentia/id_enhancedbo/ http://www.swd.gov.hk/tc/index/site_pubsvc/page_socsecu/sub_socialsecurity/#SSAla