See the Future
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

See the Future

  • 334 views
Uploaded on

Tools and Techniques to Spot Opportunities & Threats in Emerging Technology

Tools and Techniques to Spot Opportunities & Threats in Emerging Technology

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
334
On Slideshare
333
From Embeds
1
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 1

http://www.linkedin.com 1

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide
  • Quick show of hands…DeveloperDesignerSocial Media / Marketing / Other
  • What do we mean by “seeing the future”?Why would we want to do this?How? Tools and techniques to help you spot opportunities + threat / get laptops readyRemind people that I’ll send out the slides
  • Refer this back to the first trend…Eric Schmidt quote – In two days we create all the data that we created from the beginning of time up until 2003.Nomi – Sensors into stores to track foot traffic / optimizations
  • NateSilver (statistician, blogger, writer)…election outcome prediction23andMe…DNA sequencing, predict likelihood of illness / disease
  • Has anyone not heard of Google Glass? :)
  • Note that we’ll go through each one…Stress this isn’t a definitive listMachine Learning -> Analyze a training data set - > Make prediction
  • Opinion MiningHighlight the Google Glass “case study”
  • Under the umbrella of wisdom of the crowd
  • Notes#1Ability to forecast#2 Regional interest – particularly from Asia#3 Related items – top one is price (so obviously this is something that people are sensitive to and will likely impact success)Note that trends can go the other way too…e.g. Microsoft :)
  • Under “implications”, also overlaid more personal thoughts…Potential for broader success over time (with the right price / seamless integration)

Transcript

  • 1. SEE THEFUTURETOOLS AND TECHNIQUES TO SPOT OPPORTUNITIES& THREATS IN EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
  • 2. MY BACKGROUND12 years in technologyApplication Developer• MTV Networks, JP Morgan, MicrosoftInstructor at the General AssemblyBased out of New York CityInterest in…• Data Science• Disruptive Technologies
  • 3. WORKSHOP AGENDAInteractiveCan we really see the future?• What?!• Why?How?• Tools• TechniquesNext Steps• Tracking Framework• Key Players in Field
  • 4. CAN WE REALLY “SEE THEFUTURE”?Obviously no such thing as a crystal ballAlthough we’re getting close(r)Driven by a two key trends• Data growth• Increasing array of tools & techniquesDerive signal (insights) from the noise (data)• Insights = Predictions & Forecasts• Data = Growing Exponentially
  • 5. DATA, DATA, DATA…2.5 quintillion bytes of data per day, IBM• Equal to 2220.45 petabytes90% of data created was in the last 2 yearsSources• Social, News, Images, Sensors, Financial,Geographic, Sports, Meteorological, etcThat’s a lot of noise!• Somewhere in there is (future) signalthough
  • 6. WHY BOTHER?Because we increasingly can / value if you can find the signal• "Google Search Terms Can Predict Stock Market”• Warwick Business School, Boston UniversityHabit• Professionally and PersonallyMore specifically, uncover the following…• Strengths• Weaknesses• Opportunities• Threats
  • 7. WHY? BENEFITS…Environmental (weather)Political (election outcomes)Societal (trends, unrest)Financial (market predictions)Personal (career, investments, health)Technological (impact, success, opportunity)
  • 8. CASE STUDY - GOOGLE GLASSGoogle Glass• Think about some of the questions about this emergingtechnology
  • 9. CASE STUDY - GOOGLE GLASSTypes of questions we might ask…• Will Google Glass be a success?• How will it impact my business?• Should we develop app(s) for it?• When will it launch?• What else will it disrupt?Unstructured data (sentiment driven)• No app store, sales, price• LOTS of hype
  • 10. HOW? TOOLS & TECHNIQUESSentiment Analysis• Opinion miningPrediction Markets• Leverage the “wisdom of the crowd”Signal Tracking• Discover insightsMachine Learning• Learn and analyze data
  • 11. SENTIMENT ANALYSISSentiment140 (sentiment140.com)
  • 12. PREDICTION MARKETShttp://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/53978
  • 13. SIGNAL TRACKING #1 -GOOGLE TRENDSGoogle Trends (google.com/trends)
  • 14. SIGNAL TRACKING #2 –RECORDED FUTURERecorded Future (recordedfuture.com)
  • 15. SIGNAL TRACKING #3 – NEWSANALYSIS
  • 16. CASE STUDY – SUMMARYInsights• Google Glass tends to polarize opinion• Although sentiment is generally positive• Prospective buyers are price sensitive• Anticipated launch in Q4 2013• Interest from Asian markets• Developer interest (apps being created)Implications• Quite niche product (initially)• Needs right price / refined form factors• Worth exploring space, as well as other “wearables”
  • 17. ADDITIONAL TECHNIQUES“Datafication”• Taking aspects of life and turning them into data• Seating positioning in a car (AIIT, Tokyo)• IBM patent for “touch sensitive floor covering”Explore Models• Hype Cycles• S-CurvesWatchlists• SV Angels "Megatrends”• Kickstarter (great bell-weather…Pebble Watch)• Betali.st
  • 18. TRACKING FRAMEWORKDefine the Why/ Goals /MeasuresEstablish DataSources / Tools& TechniquesMonitorAssess &RefineAct :)Price / affordabilityNumber of appsSentimentUnstructured versus StructuredSentimentThresholds
  • 19. WHO?Chris Anderson(s) (@chr1sa and @TEDchris)Ray Kurzweil (@raykurzweil2035)Peter Diamandis (@PeterDiamandis)Clayton Christensen (@claychristensen)Esther Dyson (@edyson)Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight)Elon Musk (@elonmusk)Guy Kawasaki (@GuyKawasaki)
  • 20. THANK YOU :)Get in touch…• kevin@bluer.com• @kevinbluer