Economic Forcast Us&Japan 012710

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Economic Forcast Us&Japan 012710

  1. 1. US and Japan Diplomatic Relations and Economic Development Forecast in 2010 January 27, 2010 Pacific Dreams, Inc. 25260 SW Parkway Avenue, Suite D Wilsonville, OR 97070
  2. 2. < Top Risks of 2010 by Eurasia Group > <ul><li>Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>India-Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Eastern Europe, Elections & Unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Turkey </li></ul><ul><li>US-China Relations </li></ul><ul><li>Iran </li></ul><ul><li>European Fiscal Divergence </li></ul><ul><li>US Financial Regulation </li></ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul>
  3. 3. < Democrat Party Japan (DJP) > <ul><li>❖ Started September 1996 through several LDP splits </li></ul><ul><li>❖ Won 308 seats at Lower House Election last August </li></ul><ul><li>❖ Hatoyama’s Cabinet consists of a 3 party coalition of administration; DJP, SDP (Social Democrat Party) and PNP (People’s New Party) </li></ul><ul><li>❖ 2 nd Highest popularity rating (75%) of a Cabinet </li></ul><ul><li>❖ Philosophy-oriented, policies based on domestic </li></ul><ul><li>demand expansion and pro-Asian diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>❖ Elimination of bureaucratic system and promotion </li></ul><ul><li>of Political leadership </li></ul><ul><li>❖ Chief Secretary Ichiro Ozawa’s strong leadership </li></ul><ul><li>often strongly influences Hatoyama’s decisions </li></ul>
  4. 4. < Futenma Base Issues> ❖ Futenma Base is located in the middle of downtown Ginowan-city in Okinawa Island and due to its location is the most dangerous US air base in the world ❖ People in Okinawa strongly desire to transfer all the US bases outside of Okinawa ❖ Previously LDP Prime Ministers have held discussions and have come to an agreement with US to move Futenma Base to another location in Okinawa ❖ One of DJP’s campaign pledges at the Lower House election was to review US Military Base location in Japan
  5. 5. <Futenma Base Transfer Issues> ❖ Transfer to Camp Schwab in Henoko Coastline (Nago-city) But, Henoko Coastline is Jugong’s natural habitat ❖ The US military has a long-term plan to move Futenma Base to Henoko, the plan to be implemented by 2014 ❖ Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is more concerned about keeping the coalition administration’s agreement than the future impact of moving Futenma Base to Henoko ❖ “US-Japan alliance should not be held hostage by Futenma” (Richard Armitage, US Deputy Secretary of State under Bush Administration)
  6. 6. <US-Japan Alliance Concerns> ❖ (Revised) US-Japan Security Treaty began in 1960 ❖ Agreement that US military takes charge in an emergency situation, but Japan pays the bill during peacetimes ❖ Concerns and arguments resurface in the US Congress about the “Japanese Defense Free-ride” ❖ After WW II political leaders paid exceptional effort and attention to the treaty regardless of the economic friction ❖ Hatoyama administration should give extra attention and develop a more mature and deeper alliance with US, while at the same time taking into consideration the domestic constituents’ (in Okinawa) request for the US to relocate elsewhere
  7. 7. < Global Economic Forecast 2010 > <ul><li>USA: -2.5% (09)  2.7 % (10)  2.4% (11) </li></ul><ul><li>Japan: - 5.3% (09)  1.7% (10)  2.2% (11) </li></ul><ul><li>China: 8.5% (09)  10.0% (10)  9.7% (11) </li></ul><ul><li>Euro Zone Countries: -3.9% (09)  1.0% (10) </li></ul><ul><li>India: 5.6% (09)  7.7% (10) </li></ul><ul><li>Russia: -9.0% (09)  3.5% (10) </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil: -0.4% (09)  4.7% (10) </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia: 4.0% (09)  6.3% (10) </li></ul><ul><li>World Economy: – 0.8% (09)  3.0% (10)  4.3% (11) </li></ul>❖ Economic Growth Rate (by IMF in Jan. 2010)
  8. 8. < Unemployment Concerns > USA Japan <ul><li>5.2% (Dec.08)  10.0% (Dec. 09) </li></ul><ul><li>Marginally Labor or Discouraged Workers (Possibly 17.2%) </li></ul><ul><li>17Million People unemployment and only 5.1Million People received unemployment benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Ken Sakai’s Prediction: </li></ul><ul><li>8.0% (Dec. 10) </li></ul><ul><li>4.0% (Dec.08)  5.2% (Dec. 09) </li></ul><ul><li>Employment Adjustment Subsidy </li></ul><ul><li> Unemployment Reserve </li></ul><ul><li>(Possibly 9.0%) </li></ul><ul><li>“ NEET” : Not in Employment, Education or Training </li></ul><ul><li>“ Freeter” : Freelance Arbeiter (Permanent Part-timer) </li></ul><ul><li>Ken Sakai’s Prediction: </li></ul><ul><li>4.5% (Dec. 10) </li></ul>
  9. 9. < 2010 Economic Elements in Japan > <ul><li>Exchange Ratio Between US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen </li></ul><ul><li>Upper House Election this summer </li></ul><ul><li>Exporting to Asian countries and US </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly Children Benefits for household </li></ul><ul><li>Prohibiting Staffing Services sent to Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Banks’ reluctant to expand new lending </li></ul><ul><li>Ken Sakai’s Prediction - 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>US Japan </li></ul><ul><li>2.2% GDP 1.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Exchange Rate 1US $ = ¥ 95 Yen (End of Dec. 10) </li></ul>
  10. 10. US and Japan Diplomatic Relations and Economic Development Forecast in 2010 Thank You! Ken Sakai [email_address] www.pacificdreams.org

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