The partys over oil war and the fate of industrial societies by richard heinberg the present and the future
The Partys Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg The Future Is NowThe world is about to run out of cheap oil and change dramatically. Withinthe next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even ifindustrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they willhave less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survivalof complex societies. We are entering a new era, as different from theindustrial era as the latter was from medieval times. In The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg places this momentous transition inhistorical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing offossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopoliticsof the twentieth century and how contention for dwindling energy resourcesin the twenty-first century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East,Central Asia and South America. He describes the likely impacts of oildepletion and all of the energy alternatives. Predicting chaos unless theUnited States-the worlds foremost oil consumer-is willing to join with othercountries to implement a global program of resource conservation andsharing, he also recommends a managed collapse that might make wayfor a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future. More readable than other accounts of this issue, with fuller discussion ofthe context, social implications and recommendations for personal,community, national and global action, Heinbergs updated book is ariveting wake-up call for human-kind as the oil era winds down, and acritical tool for understanding and influencing current US foreign policy. Richard Heinberg, from Santa Rosa, California, has been writing aboutenergy resources issues and the dynamics of cultural change for manyyears. A member of the core faculty at New College of California, he is anaward-winning author of three previous books. His Museletter wasnominated for the Best Alternative Newsletter award by Utne in 1993.Features:* Click here to view our Condition Guide and Shipping Prices
If you want to know what the near future holds for you, your family andsociety, Heinberg does a reasonably good job at describing it for thereader. There are, in my opinion, some limits to his content, a s well assome disinformation about the field of economics, but these are minorissues that do not distract from the meat and potatoes of his message.The primary focus of this work is based on Peak Oil Theory that waspresented by American geologist M. King Hubbert in the mid-1950s -- thefact that the production of available oil will peak, then run out. One of themajor criticisms of Hubbert, by the way, is that he was a geologist and notan economist and therefore had limited understanding of the marke t forcesin the decline phases after the peak is reached. This may be true, but Idoubt anyone in the mid-1950s had a vision of the modern industrializationof countries like China and India, including their populations thirst for ourworlds limited petroleum resources.I would agree with those, like T. Boone Pickens, who are of the opinionthat we are now about a year or two down the road from peak oil with aneconomy that reflects the fact. Take a look at the stock markets... Themarkets have been going up when oil goes down in price, yet the reasonthat oil is going down is based on a U.S. and world-wide economicdownturn. When the economic picture looks even a sliver brighter, oil riseseliminating even the small glimmer of a recovery. I heard it de scribed bestby an analyst on Bloomberg who described this as an L-shaped recovery(the economy will go down and there is no recovery as far as the eye cansee) that just about summarizes life post peak oil.Just as important as peak oil is the concept of cheap oil; in other words,there may be a lot of oil under the ocean but it will be costly to recover.Sure, the Gulf of Mexico may have billions of gallons in deep water off -shore. Perhaps there is another Prudhoe Bay at the bottom of theMarianas Trench... Are you going to pay $25,000 per barrel of oil withcurrent technology to recover it? Inexpensive energy peaked in the 1970s.Heinberg may have a skewed view of economist -- I dont know of a singlestudent who has covered a micro or macro course in the 101s level thatdoes not understand the ramifications of consuming a limit strategicproduct without finding alternative resources. It is not going to go well forthe United States or any country in the world... Economist do practice a lotof theoreticals with charts, graphs and what-ifs, but they are absolutelycognizant of the worlds realities and many of the consequences of priceand demand on a finite resource like petroleum.Finally, I feel that Heinberg paints too positive of a picture of our societywhen things like power grids and our economic systems fail. Our country,like most other developed nations, keeps their populations compliant bygiving citizens a relatively comfortable way of life; the American way of lifeif you will. As most of us have seen after Hurricane Katrina, local, stateand federal governments have a total inability to control civil unrest on
limited scales. Just think if what it will look like when numerous banks fail,prices double overnight, there is no gasoline and the electricity is out.When the gas prices reached $3.75 it was almost impossible to find apoliceman on the street and Im sure this practice was duplicatedthroughout the country. The prospect gives one great pause that perhapsthe survivalist may get to see their day come in the near future.We, in the United States, have lived at the expense of others too long. Ourday of reckoning is just around the corner. I dont envy whoever becomesour next president. Theyll have a full plate of problems our nation hasnever seen before. For More 5 Star Customer Reviews and Lowest Price: The Partys Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg - 5 Star Customer Reviews and Lowest Price!