2013 Arkansas Economic Forecast - Michael Pakko

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2013 UALR/IEA Arkansas Economic Forecast.

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2013 Arkansas Economic Forecast - Michael Pakko

  1. 1. The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR UALR Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference November 6, 2013
  2. 2. Overview Arkansas’ Recent Experience • • • • • • • Overview GDP Arkansas Coincident Index Personal Income Retail Sales Home Sales (and Prices) Employment & Unemployment Arkansas Forecasts
  3. 3. Overview Summary • Arkansas has experienced a slow, bumpy recovery • By some measures, Arkansas has fallen behind in the pace of expansion • The broad macroeconomic outlook suggests more of the same • On the other hand … recent trends in home sales suggest reason for optimism • Forecast: On the high side of a slowgrowth scenario
  4. 4. Gross Domestic Product U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 15.8 Trillions of chained  (2005) dollars 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012 2013
  5. 5. Gross Domestic Product U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth  (Percent change, annual rates) 8 6 4 Percent 2 0 ‐2 ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012 2013
  6. 6. Gross Domestic Product Annual GDP Growth 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% U.S. Arkansas -3% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2011 2012
  7. 7. Arkansas’ Experience A bumpy recovery: Coincident Index of Economic Activity ‐ Arkansas 102 Index, 2007Q4=100 100 98 96 94 92 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2013
  8. 8. Arkansas’ Experience A bumpy recovery: Arkansas Coincident Index - Growth Rates 4% Monthly growth rate (SAAR) 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2013
  9. 9. Personal Income Arkansas Personal Income ‐ 2013 Revisions 110 Billions of dollars 105 100 95 90 85 Previously Published Revised 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012 2013
  10. 10. Personal Income Employee and Employer Contributions for Social Insurance         (as percentages of Wages and Salaries plus Proprietors' Income) 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Employee and Self‐Employed Employer 5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012 2013
  11. 11. Personal Income Dividends, Interest, and Rent  (as a percent of Total Personal Income) 20% 19% 18% 17% Actual Hypothetical 16% 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2012 2013
  12. 12. Personal Income Effects of Tax Policy Changes on Arkansas Personal Income 108 +2.5% -0.9% 106 +1.9% 104 +0.7% Actual Billions of dollars 102 Adjusted 100 +3.7% 98 +2.7% 96 94 92 90 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013Q1
  13. 13. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  14. 14. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  15. 15. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  16. 16. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  17. 17. Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
  18. 18. Taxable Sales Growth Rates of Arkansas Taxable Sales (Seasonally Adjusted) 2012:Q3 Change from Previous  Quarter   ATS ATSIG ‐2.5% ‐2.1% Change from One  Year Earlier ATS ATSIG ‐0.5% ‐0.5% 2012:Q4 3.5% 3.3% 1.3% 1.2% 2013:Q1 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2013:Q2 3.1% 2.4% 4.3% 3.8% 2013:Q3(P) ‐1.7% ‐1.7% 5.1% 4.2% (P) = Preliminary Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.
  19. 19. Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, Census Bureau.
  20. 20. Home Sales Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors® (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 September observations 800 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement. 2013
  21. 21. Home Sales Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors® (Seasonally Adjusted) 3,200 Nov. 2009 Apr. 2010 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 2013 2010 2011 2012 2009 Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.
  22. 22. Home Sales ARA vs. NAR Home Sales, Arkansas 140 Index, 2009:Q1=100 130 120 110 100 90 NAR, Existing ARA, New & Existing 80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, National Association of Realtors®, Institute for Economic Advancement.
  23. 23. Home Prices FHFA House Prices Expanded‐Data Indexes (Seasonally Adjusted) 105 Index, 2007:Q1=100 100 95 Arkansas 90 85 U.S. 80 75 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) 2012 2013
  24. 24. Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
  25. 25. Home Prices FHFA House Price Changes (All‐Transactions Indexes, Seasonally Adjusted) Percent Changes* 1 quarter 2 quarters 1 year 2 years 5 years Fayetteville‐Springdale‐Rogers 2.2 3.9 5.0 6.6 ‐11.0 Fort Smith 0.5 0.5 0.9 2.3 0.3 Hot Springs 0.8 1.1 2.9 0.6 ‐5.6 Jonesboro 1.1 1.7 2.1 6.1 5.5 Little Rock‐N. Little Rock‐Conway 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 ‐0.3 Memphis 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 ‐10.4 Pine Bluff 2.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 ‐2.6 Texarkana 3.5 ‐0.2 3.2 1.9 6.1 Arkansas  0.7 1.4 2.8 3.1 ‐2.8 United States 1.9 3.4 4.1 4.2 ‐10.2 *Percent changes to 2013:Q2. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
  26. 26. Building Permits Single Family Building Permits 350 300 Index, 2009:Q1=100 250 200 150 100 50 ARKANSAS Fayetteville MSA Little Rock MSA 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s 2012 2013
  27. 27. Unemployment Unemployment Rates, Arkansas and U.S. 11 10 U.S. Percent 9 8 Arkansas 7 6 5 4 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2012 2013
  28. 28. Unemployment Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) - Arkansas Unemployment 112 Thousands 108 104 100 96 92 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2010 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2011 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2012 Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Apr Jul 2013 Employment  1,270 Thousands 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,220 Jan Apr Jul Oct 2010 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 2013 2012 2011 Labor Force  1,380 1,370 Thousands 1,360 1,350 1,340 1,330 1,320 Jan 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2011 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oct Jan 2013
  29. 29. Unemployment Labor Force Participation Rates 67 66 U.S. 65 64 Percent 63 62 Arkansas 61 60 59 58 57 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2012 2013
  30. 30. Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  31. 31. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  32. 32. Employment Arkansas Employment 1,340 Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted 1,300 Household Survey 1,260 1,220 Payroll Survey 1,180 1,140 QCEW 1,100 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2012 2013
  33. 33. Employment Current Employment Statistics: Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment - August 2013* Employment changes (thousands of jobs) from: Year ago Feb 2010 Dec 2007 Mining & Logging 0.0 0.3 0.4 Construction -0.3 -1.9 -9.5 Manufacturing -0.6 -4.1 -33.4 Wholesale Trade -1.7 -0.4 -2.6 Retail Trade 7.0 11.1 4.1 Transportation & Utilities 3.9 6.9 -1.5 Information Services -0.1 -1.2 -3.4 Financial Services 0.5 0.4 -3.5 Professional & Business Services 2.0 8.6 7.1 Education & Health Services 4.9 11.7 20.2 Leisure & Hospitality Services -0.9 3.9 0.4 Other Services -1.3 -1.0 -3.5 Government -1.2 0.0 2.4 TOTAL 12.2 34.3 -22.8 * Seasonally adjusted data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  34. 34. Economic Outlook "I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." - Kehlog Albran, The Profit
  35. 35. Forecast Methodology Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody’s Analytics. Structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy Arkansas linked to US forecast, by sector Forecast tied to Moody’s macroeconomic U.S. model Alternative Forecast Paths: Moody’s Wells Fargo NABE Wall Street Journal Macroeconomic Advisers PNC Financial Etc. …
  36. 36. Real GDP U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth  (Percent change, annual rates) 6 4 Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 2 2012 Percent ‐2 ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 ‐10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1.9 2.3 2015 Forecast 2013 2014 0 2.0 2.8
  37. 37. Real GDP Arkansas Real GDP Growth 4% 3.0% 3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2% 1.3% 1% 0.7% 0.3% 0% -1% -2% -2.0% Actual Forecast -3% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  38. 38. Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 2012 5.3 2013 2.0 2014 4.1 2015 4.5
  39. 39. Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 2012 1.2 2013 2.0 2014 5.6 2015 4.6
  40. 40. Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) 2011 24.4K ‐1.2% 2012   24.0K ‐1.1% 2013 26.7K +13.8% 2014 28.6K +7.2% 2015 28.8K +0.8%
  41. 41. Employment Q4/Q4 Growth 2011 +12.2K +1.0% 2012   +4.2K +0.4% 2013 +8.6K +0.7% 2014 +22.5K +1.9% 2015 +23.6K +1.9%
  42. 42. Employment Employment Growth Forecasts by Sector (Q4/Q4) Thousands Percent 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 4.2 8.6 22.5 23.6 0.4 0.7 1.9 1.9  Natural resources and Mining ‐1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐12.0 1.5 1.0 1.2  Construction ‐2.1 1.5 2.3 1.4 ‐4.4 3.2 4.8 2.9  Manufacturing ‐2.1 ‐1.0 ‐0.5 0.3 ‐1.3 ‐0.7 ‐0.3 0.2 7.8 4.1 0.8 1.4 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.6  Wholesale Trade 0.8 ‐0.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 ‐1.3 0.5 0.8  Retail Trade 4.4 4.5 0.4 0.6 3.3 3.3 0.3 0.4  Transportation & Utilities 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 4.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 ‐0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 ‐2.0 0.2 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.6 ‐1.6 3.2 4.4 5.3 ‐1.3 2.6 3.5 4.1  Education & Health Services 2.7 4.4 5.5 6.0 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.3  Leisure & Hospitality 1.4 0.6 4.4 4.6 1.4 0.6 4.2 4.3  Other Services 0.1 ‐1.8 0.4 0.6 0.2 ‐4.1 1.0 1.3 ‐0.9 ‐2.6 4.2 2.7 ‐0.4 ‐1.2 2.0 1.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.9 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.6 ‐4.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.8  State government 0.4 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.8 2.7 1.9  Local government ‐1.1 ‐2.3 2.3 1.3 ‐0.9 ‐1.9 2.0 1.1  Total Nonagricultural  Trade, Transportation & Utilities  Information  Financial Activities  Professional & Business Services  Government  Federal Government
  43. 43. Unemployment End of Year (Q4) 2012 7.2 2013 7.3 2014 6.6 2015 5.9
  44. 44. Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www.arkansaseconomist.com

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