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Informing “The Question”: 3rd June 2013
Philip Bryers
Dr. Ted Grossardt
Dr. Keiron Bailey
Michael Marra
David Torrance
Event Team
T. Grossardt
(ComDec)
M. Marra
(U. Dundee)
B. Gall
(U3A)
K. Bailey
(ComDec)
M. Whatley
(U. Dundee)
D. Torrance
(5MQ)
Event Attendees
Aims of the Event
• 1. To help those present to gain a better
understanding of the underlying issues
associated with the referendum in September
2014, and
• 2. To use the Structured Public Involvement
(SPI) approach to assess what themes the
audience deems most significant in
determining their stance on the independence
question.
What Have Been Your Primary Sources for
Information About the Question? (pick 3)
RadioNew
spaperTelevision
Online-W
ebsiteSocialm
edia
Discussion
w
it...
Other
28
22
38
5
32
0
7
1. Radio
2. Newspaper
3. Television
4. Online-Website
5. Social media
6. Discussion with friends,
family, others
7. Other
Have You Decided How You’ll Vote Yet?
Yes,I’m
Quite...
I’m
PrettySur...
I’m
Leaning
To...
IReally
Have
...
37%
9%
33%
22%
1. Yes, I’m Quite Certain
2. I’m Pretty Sure I Know
How I’ll Vote
3. I’m Leaning Toward A
Particular Decision
4. I Really Have No Idea
Relevance?
Do we need a new vision for the
union now?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
17%
0%
5%
2%
19%
14%
19%
7%
17%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
How will an independent Scotland
pay her way?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
3%
0% 0% 0%
77%
8%8%
3%3%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
Will we join European Union
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
3%
0% 0% 0%
77%
9%
3%
6%
3%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
Will we join NATO?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
3%
0% 0%
6%
50%
3%
11%11%
17%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
Will we remove Trident
immediately?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
9%
0%
12%
3%
35%
3%3%
0%
35%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
Would we have a constitution and
who would write it?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
3%
0% 0% 0%
72%
11%
8%
0%
6%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
How and when would we judge
the success of independence
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
43%
5%
0%
5%
21%
7%
5%
7%7%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
Relevance?
Should we consider a federal
system?
Notrelevantatall
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Extrem
elyrelevant
33%
9%
2%
0%
24%
7%
2%
4%
18%
1. Not relevant at all
2. ...
3. ...
4. ...
5. ...
6. ...
7. ...
8. ...
9. Extremely relevant
6.36.3
4.64.3
6.55.8
7.7
5.0
8.3
5.5
5.75.96.47.5
7.3
8.3
4.6
7.68.0
6.46.8
6.86.2
6.2
7.68.4
5.96.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
Howdoesthe
experienceof
unionoverthe
past300years
matter?
Whatwillour
economylook
like?
Wouldcurrent
proposed
changedstothe
welfaresystem
becontinued?
Whataboutour
pensions?
Willwejoin
EuropeanUnion
Wouldwehave
anarmy?
IfnottheQueen,
thenwho?
Whowillgovern
us?-political
institutions
Howandwhen
wouldwejudge
thesuccessof
independence
Relevance?
How does the experience of union over the past 300 years matter?
Do we need a new vision for the union now?
How will an independent Scotland pay her way?
What will our economy look like?
How much income would North Sea Oil provide?
Will we use the £, the Euro, or a new currency?
Would current proposed changeds to the welfare system be continued?
Will there be more investment in welfare in an independent Scotland?
Would the education system stay the same?
What about our pensions?
What about occupational persions?
Will I need a Scottish passport? Cost?
Will we join European Union
Will we join NATO?
Will we join the UN
To what extent will the likely result of the
2015 UK general election influence your vote?
Notatall
Onlyslightly
M
oderately
ConsiderablyItw
illm
atter...
43%
18%
11%
18%
11%
1. Not at all
2. Only slightly
3. Moderately
4. Considerably
5. It will matter greatly
Of the Questions We’ve Posed Today, How Many of Them
Do You Believe Will be Answered by September 18, 2014?
M
ostofAllof...
The
M
ajority
AboutHalf
M
aybeOneQuar...
Alm
ostNone
of...
2%
13%
22%
33%
29%
1. Most of All of Them
2. The Majority
3. About Half
4. Maybe One Quarter
5. Almost None of
Them
Do you consider yourself to be:
EntirelyScott...
M
ore
Scottish
...
Equally
Scotti...
M
ore
British
t...EntirelyBriti...
Other
11%
26%
2%
9%
4%
48%
1. Entirely Scottish
2. More Scottish than
British
3. Equally Scottish and
British
4. More British than
Scottish
5. Entirely British
6. Other
Do you believe an independent Scotland should
have a written constitution?
Yes
No
74%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1. Yes
2. No
How satisfied are you with this process?
42%
10%
31%
0%
6%
0%
6%
0%
6% 1. Very unsatisfied
2.
3. Moderately unsatisfied
4.
5. Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
6.
7. Moderately satisfied
8.
9. Very satisfied
Performance comparison with SPI processes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean process satisfaction where 1 = "awful" and 10 = "wonderful". Total 'n' > 4000.
Q-metric: Mean satisfaction with SPI Processes 2000-13
About SPI
SPI is a high performance group involvement method to support decision
making in complex and challenging resource allocation problems. The
philosophy of SPI is to maximize justice from the viewpoint of multiple
stakeholders and not to seek an infeasible "consensus." SPI forums are
designed in collaboration with public agencies and contractors to address
choices and to maximize the input of stakeholder valuations subject to
financial, engineering, legal and other decision constraints. Citizen
valuations on designs/plans are sought at open public meetings using
electronic polling and scenario modeling or visualization. The data is
gathered anonymously, simultaneously and independently and translated
into guidance for the professionals using advanced analytic techniques. SPI
is designed around a framework of Quality, Inclusion, Transparency and
Efficiency. Objective process evaluation is therefore possible. This allows
SPI to be evaluated against other potential methods such as deliberative
democracy, focus groups, online surveys and other techniques. SPI
maximizes fairness, efficiency in public involvement and resist gaming by
established interest groups. It improves governance by facilitating the so-
called "silent majority" who are often discouraged from participating in
public goods management by process abuse, manipulation, or inefficiency.
SPI Highlights
Thirteen years of high performance participatory process
innovation, design, delivery and measurement
More than forty successful public involvement projects.
Variety of partners inc. Federal agencies (e.g.
DoE, FHWA, FTA, NSF), State DoTs, MPOs, private consultants.
More than ten thousand stakeholders involved.
Fifty peer-review publications.
Research awards e.g. Transportation Research Board
Committee memberships on National Academies panels.
Service on professional organizations, journal, grant proposal
review from environmental management to civil engineering.
Largest Arnstein Ladder data set published worldwide.
Largest Q-metric data set for participatory processes.
Structured Public Involvement……. Just Google it!

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Scottish Independence Forum 3 June13 (Summary)

  • 1. Informing “The Question”: 3rd June 2013 Philip Bryers Dr. Ted Grossardt Dr. Keiron Bailey Michael Marra David Torrance
  • 2. Event Team T. Grossardt (ComDec) M. Marra (U. Dundee) B. Gall (U3A) K. Bailey (ComDec) M. Whatley (U. Dundee) D. Torrance (5MQ)
  • 4. Aims of the Event • 1. To help those present to gain a better understanding of the underlying issues associated with the referendum in September 2014, and • 2. To use the Structured Public Involvement (SPI) approach to assess what themes the audience deems most significant in determining their stance on the independence question.
  • 5. What Have Been Your Primary Sources for Information About the Question? (pick 3) RadioNew spaperTelevision Online-W ebsiteSocialm edia Discussion w it... Other 28 22 38 5 32 0 7 1. Radio 2. Newspaper 3. Television 4. Online-Website 5. Social media 6. Discussion with friends, family, others 7. Other
  • 6. Have You Decided How You’ll Vote Yet? Yes,I’m Quite... I’m PrettySur... I’m Leaning To... IReally Have ... 37% 9% 33% 22% 1. Yes, I’m Quite Certain 2. I’m Pretty Sure I Know How I’ll Vote 3. I’m Leaning Toward A Particular Decision 4. I Really Have No Idea
  • 7. Relevance? Do we need a new vision for the union now? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 17% 0% 5% 2% 19% 14% 19% 7% 17% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 8. Relevance? How will an independent Scotland pay her way? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 3% 0% 0% 0% 77% 8%8% 3%3% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 9. Relevance? Will we join European Union Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 3% 0% 0% 0% 77% 9% 3% 6% 3% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 10. Relevance? Will we join NATO? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 3% 0% 0% 6% 50% 3% 11%11% 17% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 11. Relevance? Will we remove Trident immediately? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 9% 0% 12% 3% 35% 3%3% 0% 35% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 12. Relevance? Would we have a constitution and who would write it? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 3% 0% 0% 0% 72% 11% 8% 0% 6% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 13. Relevance? How and when would we judge the success of independence Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 43% 5% 0% 5% 21% 7% 5% 7%7% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 14. Relevance? Should we consider a federal system? Notrelevantatall ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Extrem elyrelevant 33% 9% 2% 0% 24% 7% 2% 4% 18% 1. Not relevant at all 2. ... 3. ... 4. ... 5. ... 6. ... 7. ... 8. ... 9. Extremely relevant
  • 15. 6.36.3 4.64.3 6.55.8 7.7 5.0 8.3 5.5 5.75.96.47.5 7.3 8.3 4.6 7.68.0 6.46.8 6.86.2 6.2 7.68.4 5.96.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 Howdoesthe experienceof unionoverthe past300years matter? Whatwillour economylook like? Wouldcurrent proposed changedstothe welfaresystem becontinued? Whataboutour pensions? Willwejoin EuropeanUnion Wouldwehave anarmy? IfnottheQueen, thenwho? Whowillgovern us?-political institutions Howandwhen wouldwejudge thesuccessof independence Relevance? How does the experience of union over the past 300 years matter? Do we need a new vision for the union now? How will an independent Scotland pay her way? What will our economy look like? How much income would North Sea Oil provide? Will we use the £, the Euro, or a new currency? Would current proposed changeds to the welfare system be continued? Will there be more investment in welfare in an independent Scotland? Would the education system stay the same? What about our pensions? What about occupational persions? Will I need a Scottish passport? Cost? Will we join European Union Will we join NATO? Will we join the UN
  • 16. To what extent will the likely result of the 2015 UK general election influence your vote? Notatall Onlyslightly M oderately ConsiderablyItw illm atter... 43% 18% 11% 18% 11% 1. Not at all 2. Only slightly 3. Moderately 4. Considerably 5. It will matter greatly
  • 17. Of the Questions We’ve Posed Today, How Many of Them Do You Believe Will be Answered by September 18, 2014? M ostofAllof... The M ajority AboutHalf M aybeOneQuar... Alm ostNone of... 2% 13% 22% 33% 29% 1. Most of All of Them 2. The Majority 3. About Half 4. Maybe One Quarter 5. Almost None of Them
  • 18. Do you consider yourself to be: EntirelyScott... M ore Scottish ... Equally Scotti... M ore British t...EntirelyBriti... Other 11% 26% 2% 9% 4% 48% 1. Entirely Scottish 2. More Scottish than British 3. Equally Scottish and British 4. More British than Scottish 5. Entirely British 6. Other
  • 19. Do you believe an independent Scotland should have a written constitution? Yes No 74% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1. Yes 2. No
  • 20. How satisfied are you with this process? 42% 10% 31% 0% 6% 0% 6% 0% 6% 1. Very unsatisfied 2. 3. Moderately unsatisfied 4. 5. Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 6. 7. Moderately satisfied 8. 9. Very satisfied
  • 21. Performance comparison with SPI processes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean process satisfaction where 1 = "awful" and 10 = "wonderful". Total 'n' > 4000. Q-metric: Mean satisfaction with SPI Processes 2000-13
  • 22. About SPI SPI is a high performance group involvement method to support decision making in complex and challenging resource allocation problems. The philosophy of SPI is to maximize justice from the viewpoint of multiple stakeholders and not to seek an infeasible "consensus." SPI forums are designed in collaboration with public agencies and contractors to address choices and to maximize the input of stakeholder valuations subject to financial, engineering, legal and other decision constraints. Citizen valuations on designs/plans are sought at open public meetings using electronic polling and scenario modeling or visualization. The data is gathered anonymously, simultaneously and independently and translated into guidance for the professionals using advanced analytic techniques. SPI is designed around a framework of Quality, Inclusion, Transparency and Efficiency. Objective process evaluation is therefore possible. This allows SPI to be evaluated against other potential methods such as deliberative democracy, focus groups, online surveys and other techniques. SPI maximizes fairness, efficiency in public involvement and resist gaming by established interest groups. It improves governance by facilitating the so- called "silent majority" who are often discouraged from participating in public goods management by process abuse, manipulation, or inefficiency.
  • 23. SPI Highlights Thirteen years of high performance participatory process innovation, design, delivery and measurement More than forty successful public involvement projects. Variety of partners inc. Federal agencies (e.g. DoE, FHWA, FTA, NSF), State DoTs, MPOs, private consultants. More than ten thousand stakeholders involved. Fifty peer-review publications. Research awards e.g. Transportation Research Board Committee memberships on National Academies panels. Service on professional organizations, journal, grant proposal review from environmental management to civil engineering. Largest Arnstein Ladder data set published worldwide. Largest Q-metric data set for participatory processes. Structured Public Involvement……. Just Google it!

Editor's Notes

  1. These are optional questions, but can be very useful in helping organizers understand how to attract future participation.
  2. We can combine questions and comments or have one slide each for each question, depending on the number of topics we want to tackle.