People Centered Initiatives  Feb 18, 2010
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People Centered Initiatives Feb 18, 2010

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Presents the potential energy savings associated with programs that focus on people as opposed to technologies. Explores strategies for engaging people in energy conservation and efficiency.

Presents the potential energy savings associated with programs that focus on people as opposed to technologies. Explores strategies for engaging people in energy conservation and efficiency.

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People Centered Initiatives  Feb 18, 2010 People Centered Initiatives Feb 18, 2010 Presentation Transcript

  • MegaWatts on Main Street A Carbon Finance Speaker Series at Yale Presenting Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez in “ People Centered Initiatives: Estimating the Potential for Behavior-Related Energy Savings and why they are Necessary” Brought to you by the Center for Business and the Environment at Yale through the generous support of the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation
  • People-Centered Initiatives: Estimating Potential Behavior-Related Energy Saving Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, Ph.D. Megawatts on Main Street Webinar, February 18, 2010
  • Opening Thoughts
    • Leading an Energy Revolution
    • “Science and technology can create much better choices.” (Chu 2009)
    • We won’t get there unless we bring people back into the process.
  • Creating an Energy Revolution
    • A revolution doesn’t happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts new behaviors.
    • Clay Shirky, Digital Guru
  • Traditional Approaches to Efficiency With a little behavioral change Imagine a U.S. economy in 2030 that is 70% larger than today The “official future” Add more productive technology And with a little imagination. . .
  • Saving Energy in a Hurry
    • What is Possible?
    • In 6 weeks Juneau Alaska cut it’s electricity consumption by more than 30 percent.
    • A dramatic conservation campaign resulting from a sense of urgency and efficacy.
    • Post-repair electricity consumption remained 10 percent lower than one year earlier.
    • Juneau’s experience represents the effectiveness of broad mobilization to save energy.
  • Estimating the Behavioral Resource
    • Current Consumption : Residential energy use and household use of personal vehicles = 38% of total U.S. energy consumption today.
    • The Question: What is the scale of potential energy savings assuming people-centered approaches?
    • The Method:
      • Identifying more than 100 separate conservation and energy efficiency measures (all cost-effective) that could be taken in a short period of time.
      • Apply a Monte Carlo probability simulation – allowing a random distribution of eligibility, participation, and saving magnitudes – we found an energy savings potential on the order of about 9 Quads compared to current use.
  • U.S. Residential Energy End Uses (2008) End Use Category Energy Consumed (Quads) Percent of Total Space Heating 6.2 16.1% Air Conditioning 2.4 6.1% Lighting 2.3 6.0% Hot Water 2.5 6.3% Refrigeration 1.4 3.8% Consumer Appliances 3.3 8.6% Other Uses Not Specified 4.0 10.4% Personal Transportation 16.5 42.8% Total End Use Energy 38.5 100.0%
  • Categories of Household Behaviors that Impact Residential End Use
  • Range of Participation Rates and Savings by End Use Category Major End Uses Range of Potential Savings Range of Policy-driven Participation Expected Savings Space Heating 18-36% 3-40% 27% Air Conditioning 19-47% 2-75% 33% Lighting 10-53% 20-80% 32% Hot Water 6-26% 3-75% 16% Refrigeration 17-55% 5-75% 36% Consumer Appliances 6-20% 40-80% 13% Other Uses 12-24% 30-50% 18% Personal Transport 14-33% 30-80% 24% Total End Use Impacts 18-28% n/a 23%
  • Potential Near-Term Household and Personal Transportation Energy Savings Category of Actions Potential National Energy Savings (Quads) Conservation, Lifestyle, Awareness, Low-Cost Actions 4.9 (57% of total savings) Investment Decisions 3.7 (43% of total savings) Total Energy Savings ~8.6 +/- 1.5 (22% of HH energy)
  • How Much is 9 Quads of Energy Savings?
    • ~9% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2008;
    • ~600 gallons of gasoline equivalent per household;
    • ~240 medium coal-fired power plants; and
    • Roughly equal to total annual energy consumption of either Brazil or South Korea, and just slightly less than total annual energy consumption in the UK (~10 Quads), France (~11 Quads) and Germany (~14 Quads)
    Conclusion? Even these conservative estimates indicate that a people-centered approach could result in significant energy savings – but they would require a meaningful shift in policy.
  • What are Behavior-Savvy Strategies?
    • Targeting - people and actions
    • Informing - energy, technologies, and programs
    • Motivating - norms, networks, goals and commitments
    • Empowering - removing financial and structural barriers and providing better choices
  • Targeting – People and Actions
    • Social Marketing
    • Community-Based Social Marketing
    • Home Weatherization?
    • Smaller Houses?
    • CFLs?
    • Air drying laundry?
    • Public Transportation?
    • Anti-Idling?
  • Informing – Energy Consumption, Technologies, and Programs
    • Energy Consumption Feedback
    The Energy Detective Power Cost Monitor Savings: 5-15%
  • Motivating – Norms, Networks, Goals, and Commitments
    • Communicating Social Norms
    Savings: 2.5-3.0%
  • Empowering – Removing barriers and providing better choices
    • Choice Architecture
    • Choice architecture is about creating a context in which people are likely to make better decisions – decision that will make choosers better off, as judged by themselves. (Thaler and Sunstein 2008)
    • Inertia and the Status Quo Bias
    • BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment
  • BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Meat production is responsible for 18% of GHG emissions – around 40% more than the entire transport sector (Pew Commission 2008) Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans ACEEE Conference Standard BECC 2007 BECC 2009 Meat-Based Lunch 90-95% 83% 20% Veg. Lunch 5-10% 17% 80% Large Indirect Savings
  • Closing Thoughts
      • Revolutions don’t Happen without popular support and widespread participation.
      • Large Energy Savings can Come from Addressing the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of Energy.
      • Understanding the Human Dimensions of Energy Savings is Essential for Meeting Climate Change Goals.
      • More Social Science Needs to be Integrated into Energy and Climate Change Policy.
  • For Further Information Contact:
    • Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez , Ph.D.
    • [email_address]