Understanding complexity - The Cynefin framework

Understanding complex organisations: The Cynefin model Keith De La Rue

Why complexity theory?
“ One recent study of 40 companies found that 58% of change initiatives failed to reach their goals”
McKinsey Quarterly, 2002
We need to understand how organisations work, before we can effectively change them
Organisations now depend more on people
Complex, unpredictable, dynamic
Resistant to engineering
Change is only made possible by people

The Cynefin Framework
A way to look at the nature of organisations
An understanding of complexity
Tools to work with the environment
“Sensemaking”
Developed by David Snowden, Cognitive Edge
Welsh: “habitat, place”
Conveys the sense that we all have multiple pasts of which we are only partly aware: cultural, religious, geographic, tribal, etc

Complex
Cause and effect coherent in retrospect, repeat accidentally – unpredictable
Frog
Complicated
Cause and effect separated over time & space, but repeat – analysable
Knowable
747
Simple
Cause & effect relations repeatable & predictable
Known
Bicycle
Chaos
No cause and effect relationships generally perceivable
House on fire

Complex
Multiple small and diverse interventions to create options
Probe-sense-respond
Complicated
Analytical techniques to determine facts and option range
Sense-analyse-respond
Simple
Standard processes with review cycles and clear measures
Sense-categorise-respond
Chaos
Single or multi actions to stabilise situations
Act-sense-respond

Complex
Informal
Emergence
Social Media
Complicated
Domain of experts
Good practice
20 th Century
Simple
“ Business as usual”
Best practice
19 th Century
Chaos
Novel
Crisis
Catastrophic change
Ordered
Unordered Disorder

Organisations are complex
Dynamic, with rich interactions
Different people operating at different levels
Feedback
Non-linear, unpredictable
Emergent characteristics
Whole different to sum of parts
Small changes can have large impacts
History can make a difference

Emergence
Fly to the centre
Match speed
Avoid collision
(But humans are more complex)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/moriza/

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply
“ The definition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result”
In a complex environment, doing the same thing twice will give a different result
“ You can't fix what you can't measure”
You can intervene in a complex environment, even though you can’t measure it reliably

Further information
David Snowden, Cognitive Edge:
http://www.cognitive-edge.com/
Shawn Callahan, Anecdote:
http://www.anecdote.com.au/
Keith De La Rue, AcKnowledge Consulting:
http://acknowledgeconsulting.com

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Understanding complexity - The Cynefin framework

by Keith De La Rue

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