The Dynamics of Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA

A Brief Agenda Populism in General Definitions Consequences Populism and Issue Dimensions Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic A Brief History of Slovak and Czech Populism Slovak and Czech Populism Today Bad Guesses About the Future

Populism in General

Definitions

Consequences

Populism and Issue Dimensions

Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

A Brief History of Slovak and Czech Populism

Slovak and Czech Populism Today

Bad Guesses About the Future

Populism in General: Definitions My Ally + Voters = Popul ar My Opponent + Voters = Popul ist

Inherent Pathology Lang: Over simplification Papadopolous: Over promising Tismaneanu: False reality Populism in General: Definitions

Inherent Pathology

Lang: Over simplification

Papadopolous: Over promising

Tismaneanu: False reality

Empirical Analysis Kurt Weyland: “ left-out” voters, direct appeal, bypassing institutions Margaret Canovan: “ appeal to the people, against the power structure” Cas Mudde: “ pure people v. corrupt elite” Populism in General: Definitions

Empirical Analysis

Kurt Weyland:

“ left-out” voters, direct appeal, bypassing institutions

Margaret Canovan:

“ appeal to the people, against the power structure”

Cas Mudde:

“ pure people v. corrupt elite”

Organizational Strong leader who seeks direct tie with voters Stylistic Appeals that are moralistic and idiosyncratic Programmatic Attacks all elites per se on behalf of “the people” Populism in General: Definitions Not Consensual leadership or party institutionalization Not Pragmatic compromise or systematic programs Not Attacks only on some elites or on behalf of some groups

Organizational

Strong leader who seeks

direct tie with voters

Stylistic

Appeals that are moralistic

and idiosyncratic

Programmatic

Attacks all elites per se

on behalf of “the people”

Not

Consensual leadership

or party institutionalization

Not

Pragmatic compromise

or systematic programs

Not

Attacks only on some elites

or on behalf of some groups

Populism in General: Definitions Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people

Populism in General: Definitions Is “Populism” a concept worth using? On one hand It is tainted There is little inherent linkage On the other hand Everybody does it Connection practical if not inherent

Is “Populism” a concept worth using?

On one hand

It is tainted

There is little inherent linkage

On the other hand

Everybody does it

Connection practical if not inherent

Populism in General: Consequences Is Populism worth fearing? Canovan’s Shadow of democracy. These characteristics have positives and negatives. Strong leader Direct Approach Morality Selectivity Opposing “Bad” Elites Defending the People Strong leader Weak Institutions Moralism Idiosyncracy Opposing “Good” Elites Pandering to the Mass

Is Populism worth fearing?

Canovan’s Shadow of democracy. These characteristics have positives and negatives.

Populism in General: Consequences Is Populism worth fearing? Defining “The People” Imprecise terminology to cover the notion of an undefined “us” who need the trains to run on time, and a “them” who block it in the name of democratic procedures that we simply cannot afford “ The People” Not “The People” Compatible Position Poor Rich Economic Left Co-ethnics Domestic ethnic groups and co-ethnic “traitors” Nationalism Radical Right Co-citizens Foreign powers and their domestic “agents” Isolationism Euroskepticism Anti-Americanism Believers Non-believers Fundamentalism Well-behaved Criminals Law and Order “ The Besieged” “ The Obstructionists” Authoritarianism

Is Populism worth fearing? Defining “The People”

Populism in General: Issue Divides Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis Other Issue Positions of Populist Parties Nationalist 70% Authoritarian 60% Xenophobic 43% Social 37% None 30%

Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis

Populism in General: Issue Divides Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis Issue Combinations of Populist Parties Authoritarian/National 60% Authoritarian/Xenophobic 43% Xenophobic/National 43% Social/National 37% Social/Authoritarian 27% Social/Xenophobic 10%

Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis

Populism in General: Issue Divides Populism and No Other Issues? Petr Ucen Alan Sikk

Populism and No Other Issues?

Petr Ucen

Alan Sikk

Populism in General: Issue Divides Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Anti-elite program hard to sustain while in power

Populism in General: Issue Divides Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Anti-elite program hard to sustain while in power

Dynamics: Populism’s Tragic Flaw Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal

Dynamics: Populism’s Tragic Flaw

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Other Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw

Dynamics: Permanence left right Populism in General: Issue Divides

Dynamics: Permanence

Dynamics: Permanence national cosmopolitan Populism in General: Issue Divides

Dynamics: Permanence

Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral non-populist populist Populism in General: Issue Divides

Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral

Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral Populist Party 1 Populist Party 2 Populist Party 3

Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral

Macro Level Evidence? Rapid Decline Once in Power Rapid Replacement Populism in General: Issue Divides

Macro Level Evidence?

Rapid Decline Once in Power

Rapid Replacement

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power Populism in General: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Lithuania Populism in General: Issue Divides Colored boxes denote new parties

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Lithuania

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Bulgaria Populism in General: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Bulgaria

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Estonia Populism in General: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Estonia

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Latvia Populism in General: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Latvia

Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic ZRS 1994 Score=18 or 100% SDL 1994 Score=12 or 50% Example

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic HZDS KDH DU SDK SDKU ANO SNS SDL ZRS SOP Smer KSS SMK 1992 strong leader 3 2 2 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 2 1 2 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 Sum 15 10 13 11 11 1994 strong leader 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 avoids constraining organization 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 Sum 14 9 12 15 11 18 10 1998 strong leader 3 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 1 2 2 3 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 2 3 2 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 1 2 2 Sum 13 11 15 10 15 10 2002 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 16 18 17 12 10 2006 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 2 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 1 3 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 3 1 1 3 2 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 17 15 10

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic ODS ODA US SZ KDU- CSL CSSD KSCM LSU HSD- SMS SPR- RSC Dek. Od. 1992 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 3 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 Sum 10 10 8 13 11 11 11 18 1996 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 3 avoids constraining organization 1 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 3 Sum 9 10 8 13 11 18 1998 strong leader 3 2 1 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 11 10 8 12 11 2002 strong leader 3 1 1 2 1 2 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 3 attacks all elites 2 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 12 9 8 9 11 17 2006 strong leader 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 2 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 attacks all elites 2 3 1 1 3 Sum 11 15 8 10 11

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Is There a Populism Issue Divide? What would we expect to see if there were? Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Is There a Populism Issue Divide?

What would we expect to see if there were?

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement? Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement?

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once In Power? Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides ZRS SOP ANO Smer

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once In Power?

Micro Patterns: Satisfaction followed by disillusion Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Micro Patterns: Satisfaction followed by disillusion

Departing members of ANO more likely than continuing members to believe that: Powerful do not care about me (16%) Elections offer a chance for people like me to have a say (16%) Politicians behave with restraint (13%) Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Departing members of ANO more likely than continuing members to believe that:

Powerful do not care about me (16%)

Elections offer a chance for people like me to have a say (16%)

Politicians behave with restraint (13%)

Departing members of Smer not more likely than continuing members to believe the same propositions Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

 Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power

Has Smer “routinized” its populism? Evidence: In institutional development New party organization New name: Smer-Social Democracy Choice of redistribution tolerant partners In the electorate Leftist leanings Poor v. rich Stronger redistributionist profile among all voters Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

Has Smer “routinized” its populism?

Evidence:

In institutional development

New party organization

New name: Smer-Social Democracy

Choice of redistribution tolerant partners

In the electorate

Leftist leanings

Poor v. rich

Stronger redistributionist profile among all voters

Has Smer Routinized Populism? ZRS ANO Smer Time  Non-Routinized Populism Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer New Party or Parties Time  Non-Routinized Populism Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer Routinized Populism Time  SOP Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

All material used here availalable at www.pozorblog.com Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA [email_address]