Opportunity In Chinas Consumer Economy Despite Crisisa Dec08

“ Opportunity in China’s Consumer Economy – A Safe Bet in the Current Financial Crisis” PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Nov 2008

PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL THE TOP 10 - How China is learning to love spending! Increasingly affluent consumers are playing a significant role in turning China into a market economy, with department stores and supermarkets tipped to benefit the most as disposable incomes grow. It comes as little surprise, then, that the country is well represented in our look at the top 10 retail companies across the region in terms of return on equity. Chris Wright fashions the facts from the fiction. There is a consumption revolution happening in China", says HSBC analyst Matt Marsden. It's a key component of the country's broader economic and social development, and its pace is accelerating. "It's all part of the process of China becoming a market economy, and the consumer plays a very important part in this," he says. "There's a very interesting fundamental story and the equity market is there and ready to finance it." Take, for example, shoes. Even if we look only at Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, there was one listed shoe company in early 2007; now there are five. "There is a whole sub-sector of footwear stocks that didn't exist a year ago," says Marsden. "If you look at the evolution of the department store sector you've got a similar story." Indeed, the growth of this sector in China is the area that has had the greatest impact on Asiamoney's monthly Top 10 chart of Asian companies with the highest return on equity, which for March focuses on the retail sector. Golden Eagle, Parkson and Lifestyle International all feature in our top 10. They are all growing dramatically. Golden Eagle, profiled on page 80, logged a 64.1% year-on-year increase in profits attributable to shareholders in the first half of last year, to Rmb195.8 million (US$27.4 million). Parkson, the China arm of the Malaysian Lion Group's retail business, is growing almost as fast: its profit went up 54.7% over the same period, to RM303.5 million (US$94.3 million). It manages 39 stores in 26 Chinese cities today and in the first half of last year alone executed new lease agreements to add 40,000 square metres of retailing space to its portfolio. And Lifestyle International, best known in Hong Kong for the Sogo stores in Causeway Bay and Kowloon, has launched the same model in China through its Jiuguang Department Store, which opened in September 2004. Flush with the success of that approach, in October it bought 59.4% of the equity in a sino-foreign joint-venture which owns the Xian Tian Xia Square retail shopping complex in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, for Rmb538 million (US$75m). It is also building and redeveloping properties elsewhere in China: complexes should open this year in Suzhou, Dalian and Tianjin, with others to follow in Shengyang, Qingdao and Harbin. Wealth of evidence The Chinese retail sector is attracting more and more attention. ABN Amro analyst Katherine Chan spent part of October visiting 20 department stores in the country and seeing the management of groups including Golden Eagle, Parkson, Intime, Peace Mark and Seagull Watch. "We walked away with more confidence in the Chinese department store sector," she says, noting that the wealth effect of strong stock markets pushed national retail sales up 17.1% year-on-year on the first half of 2007. "Historical data suggests that people tend to spend less on food and other necessities as disposable income grows. We believe department stores will benefit most in this environment since they do not sell daily necessities, apart from a tiny proportion of sales from supermarket food items." Whether that remains the case given the more recent turmoil in stock markets remains to be seen. But even if that dampens the top-end department stores, there is also a growing supermarket sub-sector in China, with listed companies including Wumart, Times Supermarkets and Jiahua. "Supermarkets are a robust business," says Marsden. "They don't fall off a cliff. People need food, they will always shop for consumer staples. A more modern supermarket format offers them more choice, sometimes at lower prices, in a clean, modern, air-conditioned or heated environment for Mr and Mrs average consumer China." And if the good times do continue to roll in China, then the presence of luxury retail names will be maintained. Our top 10 list includes two groups in this category: Ports Design, a fashion and luxury goods company, and Xinyu Hengdeli, which represents 50 international watch brands in China. Peace Mark, also in the watch industry, falls just outside our list, in 11th place . 2008 Issue (Pre-Crisis) “ There is a Consumer Revolution Happening in China….”!!

Convergence of Critical Factors- Foundation laid by Government Consumer-focused Stimulus of USD586 Billion Market Opportunity : Why China? Timing Opportunity : Why Now? Govt Stimulus : Drive Growth Recent equity market corrections to multi-year lows presents buying opportunity at lower valuations! China “few” global bright spots – focus of Global Co Consumerism extend to 3/4 th tier cities Established record of successful exits Deliberate Drive to Domestic Economy Few growth sectors remaining Internet “pushing” consumer knowledge Reduction of taxes; incentives for pvt investment Infrastructure spending to create jobs Improve social network-push use of savngs Update

Govt Stimulus – Can it Drive Consumer Spending? PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

China’s Strategic and Fundamental Shift to A Consumer-Driven Economy Market Opportunity: Long term and Significant Chinese Government desire to re-balance economy from export and investment-led (FDI) to domestic consumption driven Broad-based regulatory and policy changes 1 Long term growth of consumer market 2

WTO and 100% foreign-ownership of retail possible from 2007- Opportunity for foreigners to directly operate and own retail in China

In Eleventh Plan “Increase of personal consumption” identified as a key objective : “Designated” multiple long holidays to encourage travel and leisure; policies to provide better social and healthcare

Reform of financial sector: Shift banking sector current focus on corporate lending to consumer – offering credit cards, consumer loans – encourage “savings” to be released for consumption

China will be 3 rd largest consumer nation by 2025- world’s fastest growing market for consumer goods – Electrical market valued at USD55B; Food retailing over USD360B; steady annual growth for multi-sectors - department stores at 11%; apparel 9%

China will become 3 rd largest consumer of luxury goods – by 2015 China will account for 29% of global luxury consumption

Rapid Urbanisation and growth of Middle-class – Chinese middle-class will reach 300M by 2015 and 600M by 2025

“ Baby Boomers” – Younger generation are have increased disposal income, are “brand” conscious, aggressive consumers

Fundamental Push Unchanged!

Chinese Stimulus Provides Strong Foundation to Build Consumer Confidence Govt Stimulus – Multi-pronged Chinese Government desire to provide “strong boost” to push Consumer Spending Address social safety net & economic concerns 1 Encourage investment by private companies 2

Provide low-cost housing

Beef up health & medical service through improving grass-roots medical system

Incomes: improve average urban and rural incomes; providing pension for low-income urban residents

Disaster Re-building: Speeding up construction in earthquake areas

Industry: Enhancing innovation & supporting the development hi-tech and service industries.

·Taxes: Extending reforms in value-added tax rules to all industries, which could cut the tax corporate burden by RMB120B

·Finance: Enhancing financial support to maintain economic growth. Removing loan quotas on commercial lenders. Appropriately increasing bank credit for priority projects, rural areas, smaller enterprises,

Govt Infrastructure Spending 3 Can Stimulus offset export-loss & generate jobs? Rural infrastructure: Speeding up rural infrastructure construction. Poverty relief efforts will be increased. ·Transportation: Accelerating the expansion of the transport network. · Environment: Improving environmental protection

Market Opportunity – Change in Chinese Consumer? PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Targets the Emerging Chinese Middle Class & Baby Boomers

Founding Partners Network : Our team has developed a broad network of business contacts in this industry having held senior positions in various leading International/Asian/Chinese retail/consumer companies.

= We can access a propriety and significant dealflow network

New Funds are Starting to Focus on this Sector : Most funds have identified consumer, education, healthcare and natural resources as top sector focus. Report from McKinsey identifies the significant growth in consumer spending of the Chinese Middle class

= Consumer/Retail sector offers strong growth opportunities

“ Lower” risk profile of Consumer/Retail companies in emerging economies like China: Leading Chinese consumer/retail companies have high growth, strong cashflow and a “defensible” brand position; also consolidation and M&A will happen in the industry

= Overall portfolio risk is lower; additional exit opportunities through trade sale

Why Consumer/ Retail “… China has over 300,000 USD millionaires and a booming market with over 160m luxury consumers (1), luxury brands are rapidly penetrating the Chinese market: Giorgio Armani said that it planned to open 22 outlets in China before 2006”

People Opportunity PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL China’s Domestic Retail Sales Continues to Grow even in 2008 Retail Sales Increase of 22% yoy in Oct 2008 ; Wage growth may sustain spending – rural income increase at faster rate of 11% in first 9 mths 2008 Update 1H2008 domestic consumption contrinuted 50.2% to econpmic growth Becoming increasingly important driver for economic growth

People Opportunity PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Typical Profile of China’s Emerging Middle-Class China’s Consumers Have Unique Characteristics Cash-Driven Consumer Economy Consumer Behaviour in the Inner Cities can differ significantly

People Opportunity PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Economic boom has seen growth in domestic consumer brands Chinese Domestic Consumer Brands are Building Own Strengths Domestic brands ranked higher than foreign brands in trust Recent survey shows domestic brands’ strength in service; price appears less valued by consumers Update Offering Opportunities to Invest and Grow Local Brands Superior Service Quality & Response Customised to local tastes & habits Long historical heritage Established distribution network

PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL Internet is an Integral Part of the Chinese Consumer Economy helping to drive various sectors eg. Domestic travel, shopping.. Update China already has world’s largest internet population of over 260M Steady growth in cyber economy /online shopping supported by boom in online payment services Online clothing will be largest segment with sales of RMB 17B in 2008 Internet companies has significant role in consumer economy

Timing Opportunity – Foreign PE Continues to Invest PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Conditions for Private Equity in China are Increasingly Favourable Timing Opportunity: Now before Market becomes Crowded Chinese Government recognising role and value of Private Equity in long-term development of Chinese companies and economy Government and regulatory support 1 Improved conditions along PE value-chain 2

Significant regulatory changes to favour formation of PE funds- Numerous domestic Chinese (RMB-denomitade) funds have been launched

Chinese Government “symbolic” direct investment - Investment of USD3B in Blackstone as cornerstone pre-IPO investor

Significant capital raised for PE fund with Asia/China focus – Over USD14B raised for 40 Asia-focused funds in 2006 (Funds raised in 2H 2006 increased by over 106% from 2005); Several significant funds raised Carlyle Asia raising USD1.8B, MBK Partners USD1.56B.

Increasing size of deals – Several mega deals make China the most active PE market in Asia for 2006 (129 deals worth USD12.9B from 75 PE funds)

Strong exits - 33 successful exits in 2006 including H&Q’s Beijing Media, Warburg and Pincus’s AsiaInfo and 3i’s Focus Media.

Improving Conditions across Private Equity Value-Chain in China Funding Deal Source Deal Execution & Management Exit

Rapid increase in interest and oversubscription of Asia-focused PE funds from Western/ME investor community

Asia-based investors also beginning to recognise PE as investment vehicle

Sovereign funds are potential source of funding

Potential pool of over 150,000 state-owned enterprises now increasing open to foreign ownership

Numerous young privately-owned Chinese enterprise seeking fund for growth; Industry crowded ready for M&A;foreigners can own 100%

Strong Chinese brands are continuing to grow at over 30% CAGR annually

Significant operational and financial improvements can be executed on investee companies to increase value

Opportunity to bring investee companies/ brands to global markets

Increasing liquidity and appetite of domestic market for new IPOs – recent IPOs of Chinese apparel (Bosideng)and sports brands (DongXiang) at relatively rich p/e

Strong appetite of global markets for Chinese consumer plays- “Luxury goods industry eye Asian, US deals” Reuters Jun 2007

Few Consumer-focused funds exist now in China’s PE competitive landscape : Opportunity to Create a Unique Consumer PE Brand Successful Global-equivalent : Catterton, Lion Capital, TSG

Recent Transactions in China Consumer/Retail Remains Active Fund Invested Company Deal Size (USD M) Remarks Beijing Hotpot Actis $50 For over 50% stake in a hotpot chain with 60 stores in Beijing and Tianjin Ambow Educational Co. Actis $103 Chinese educational provider targeting middle school WoWo Convenience Chain ARC $10 Marketing 7-Day Inn Actis $65 Best Roast Chicken Shenzhen Venture NA 2008 Top ten fast-food chain in China. Revenues over RMB 680M 老百姓大药房 EQT Partners NA Chamate Tea House Oak $23 60 stores across Bejing, Shanghai, Hangzhou,Nanjing Jiaguang Mart Co. Carrefour RMB40M Acquisition of hypermarket chain Xi'an Aijia Commerce Co China Resources RMB600M Acquisitition of supermarket chain Metersbowen IPO Raised RMB1.38B Casual wear apparel chain with over 2000 stores and overseas outlets Little Lamb Hotpot IPO Raised HKD780M Well-known nation-wide hotpot chain invested by 3i Fujian New Hua Du Supermart IPO Raised HKD2.55B

Investment Strategy – Immediate & Longer Term PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Niche and Focused Investment Strategy on Targetted Companies Strategy We minimise risk by taking advantage of the current market condition; while maximising the potential “Value-Creation” - targetting niche investments matching team strengths Target Chinese retail/consumer companies with “branded” product or service serving the middle-market (private companies with brands strong in 2/3 rd tier cities) 1 Target undervalued companies due to recent market crisis as targets for buyout (listed equities in markets outside HK/CHN) 2

Taking significant minority stake with Board seat

Play an active stakeholder role to help management with strategic & key operational issues

Value-add by leveraging on our business relationships to expand investee business internationally or bring strategic partnerships

Leverage on Industry/Sector Growth – strong brands can grow above industry norma Target Chinese companies in high growth sectors of the retail/consumer economy (beauty, cosmetics, apparel, furniture, internet e-commerce) 3 Current Market Conditions drive lower valuations – good companies undervalued by market Value Creation – financial, strategic, operational guidance from world-class best practices, expansion of business partnerships & geographical network Update Unchanged

Focus on Emerging Brands and on Consumer Internet/Direct franchise or related services Right Strategy = Winning Fund Emerging Niche Brands + Consumer Internet + Inner City Retail

More Chinese are using the internet as a source for ordering goods and services. Research institute Data Centre of China Internet, said in a report that China’s Internet users spent 256.1 billion yuan (37.5 billion dollars) in the first six months of the year, up 58.2 percent from the same period in 2007…led by a younger generation that is willing to buy on credit and shop online .

Online men’s apparel retailer PPG bagged USD100M 4 th round financing from US Dept Store

China's TV shopping industry scale was about CNY10.5 billion in 2007, of which the TV direct-sale and shopping-focus channels accounted for 59.1% and 40.9% respectively. With the

standardization and support of national policies, a TV shopping industry chain composed of logistics, information flow and capital flow has been formed. About 10% of TV shopping audiences in key cities fulfilled a purchase …

Sales of China’s TV Shopping will reach RMB 20billion in 2008 Emerging Brands- Chinese Hairpin Brand strong recognition in GZ differentiated by unique service-value offered to customers Update Immediate/ Short term

Shift Focus with Recovery in the Global Economy Right Strategy = Winning Fund Extracts from Morgan Stanley’s report on China’s Baby Boomers “ Luxury” Products/Services + Middle-class + Baby Boomers!!

“ A survey of 45 exits last year showed 44% of them had an internal rate of return of more than 200%.”

Centre for Asia Private Equity Research

“ Actis funds under management in China: US$286m; Realized portfolio return (gross): US$ IRR 59%; Total portfolio return (gross): US$ IRR 28%” Actis , an emerging markets PE firm with US$2.7B under management

Reports from recent fund exits Update Medium to Long term

Investment – Potential Cases PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Strategy 1 Target Company Potential Value-Creation Target Chinese retail/consumer companies with established brand in niche product or service serving mid-high end market Target emerging local “Luxury” /niche brands Brands with penetration in 2 nd /3 rd tier cities- highest future growth Brands with potential into international market Strategic partnership with international brands to raise brand image Expansion of brand and retail concept into new markets outside China Provide advisory on strategic direction for expansion of brand /retail network Match brand with potential international buyers Partnership with foreign hair accessory brands to license/distribute in China Case Strong Consumer Brands Emerging as Niche Market Leaders

PROFILE Hair Accessory Brand

A ten-year old women’s hair-care business founded in Guangzhou that has now over 1200 stores across China (including in 2/3 rd tier cities) retailing mid-priced hair accessories (average price RMB100). The brand is well-recognised for its well-designed products (based on Chinese traditional hairpins) but more uniquely the on-site hair styling service provided to its customers in the shop, using these accessories. Each 20 sqm store generates upto RMB250K monthly. The brand has now moved into retailing of self-branded cosmetics. Brand spokewoman : Fan Bing Bing- popular Chinese actress.

1 Case Quick Datasheet for Hair Accessory Co Market Opportunity Recent Industry Trend Global Peer Comparables Invest USD10-15M for 20-25% stake, potentially leading to IPO or trade sale to foreign brand owner High Growth Segment : China;s hair accessory market valued at RMB8 Bn in 2007 having growth of >25% CAGR for past few years Penetration Opportunity: Overall hair care and styling market estimated >RMB 270Bn with hair products taking a mere 3% (hence significant room to penetrate) Weak Industry structure with no major players : Industry primarily dominated by local players, majority targetting low-end consumers with product pricing <RMB10. Number of major brands estimated at 10 for higher priced products. New entrants have easy entry into market; only obstacle is “brand”

Global Trend

Few standalone “Hair accessory”player. Even industry leader Scunci acquired by Conair

Two key trends appearing:

- vertically integrated player – hair care to styling

- horizontal integration as part of overall personal care

China Trend

Recent acquisition of C-Bon Group (local leader in or care products) for HKD3.5Bn bv German cosmetic conglomerate

M&A potential by foreign entrants; or even by local giants tp consolidate market share

Estimate company revenue between RMB200-400M @NPM of 12% generating RMB25-45M NPT. (valuing company @RMB200-350M for P/E 5-8X) Global Brands Goody, Scunci, Conair, Evita-Peroni Segment Consumer Discretionary Leading Companies Scunci International; Conair Limited; Evita-Peroni (privately held by Danish founders); Goodys (Division of Newells Rubbermaid), Helen of Troy Key Financial Ratios P/B Range : 0.6X to 0.8X P/E Range : 14X-25X Average Sales : USD200-500M

Strategy 2 Target Company Potential Value-Creation Target undervalued listed consumer/retail companies which due to the recent crisis has lost significant market value (esp in markets outside HKG/CHN) Target companies with strong brands Companies whose market value has collapsed by over 50% Chinese Equities in markets with limited analyst coverage Strategic partnership with international shoe brands for distribution in China Introduction of brand and retail concept into new markets outside China Provide advisory on strategic direction for expansion of retail within China Link potential buyer from international fashion players Buy-out and de-list Hongguo shifting to markets with higher valuation (HKEX) Case Undervalued Companies with Potential for Buyout (I)

PROFILE Hongguo Branded Shoe Retailer

One of China’s leading mid-to high end ladies shoe retailer, whose brand Cbanner commands top 3 market share in the segment. Distributes to over 700 POS across china

Market value recently collapsed from high of USD350M to USD120M, with a market P/E between 7-8X, which is significantly below its HK peers trading at 18-20X.

Hongguo has been listed since 2004 and has suffered a lower valuation due to lack of coverage

Hongguo has a strong group of institutional investors who are currently suffering having purchased stock at above SGD1

2 Case Quick Datasheet for Hongguo Recent Share Price (SGX, SGD) Results for FY2007 Key Financial Ratios vs Peers (HKD) Invest USD10-15M for 10-15% stake, partner with existing institutional shareholders to drive “Value-Creation” Consistently under-valued by >50%; strong growth opportunity as retail network still small and brand is well-recognised Hongguo Prime Success Belle Key Brands CBanner, EBanner Daphne Belle, Staccato, Teenix Retail Network 700+ 2000+ >3000 Exchange SGX HKEX HKEX Revenue (2007) 740M 3B 6B EPS 0.05 0.18 0.15 P/E 7X 20X 44X Market Cap. 0.8B 6B 55B Shareholders UBS, Templeton, Morgan, NewSmith - -

Strategy 2 Target Company Potential Value-Creation Target listed consumer/retail companies which have historically been undervalued and constrained due to “family-run” management Target companies with strong brands Companies whose market value has lagged peers by 30% Companies with significant non-core businesses Bring professional management team and practices Divest non-core assets (manufacturing factories) and focus on retail business in China Expand brand portfolio- partnering international brands for licensing/distribution in China Leverage on strong cash reserves of HKD 1 Bn to execute potential M&A in China Improve investor relations and exposure to foreign funds Case Undervalued Companies with Potential for Buyout (II)

PROFILE Glorious Sun - JeansWest

One of China’s leading casual wear brands with over 1400 stores in China and Australia, and expanding overseas franchise (Thailand, Vietnam, MiddleEast)

JeansWest (Australian brand origins) is well-recognised by Chinese youths; and well-positioned in China’s 2/3 rd tier cities

Company also owns international brands like Quiksilver/Roxy with presence in HK/Macau/China

Market value ranges around USD500M, with a market P/E between 14-16X, which is significantly below its HK peers trading at 20-25X.

Consistent growth 10-15%;below market potential of 20-25%

2 Case Quick Datasheet for Glorious Sun (JeansWest) Recent Share Price (HKEX, HKD) Results for FY2007 Key Financial Ratios vs Peers (HKD) Potential Management/Shareholder “Buy-out” from existing family. Significant opportunity to leverage on brand, distribution network in China plus cash “warchest” to create value. Consistently under-valued by 20%-30%; growth and margins by could be improved by 5-10% with professional management; substantial cash reserves of HKD1Bn under-utilised Glorious Sun Giordano LiNing Key Brands JeansWest Quiksilver/Roxy Giordano LiNing, Kappa Retail Network 1400+ 1000+ >3000 Revenue (2007) 4.5B 4.3B 4.4B EPS 0.26 0.14 0.5 P/E 14X 20X 40X Cash 1 BN 720M NA Market Cap. 3.9B 3.9B 20B

Strategy 3 Target Company Potential Value-Creation Target companies whose brands can become market leaders in the high growth segment of the consumer economy Target companies with strong brands Market size >USD30BN 2007; Segment growth@ 15-20% Companies whose valuation remains low Expand brand portfolio- strategic partnership with international cosmetic brands Review business model to consider new retail concept to further strengthen brand Buy-out and de-list Beauty China from SGX, relisting at higher valuations (HKEX) Matching company with potential buyers I the international arena Case Target Companies in High-Growth Consumer Segment

PROFILE Beauty China Holdings

One of China’s leading local cosmetic brands with 2 brands targetting the mid-low and mid-hi segments, with over 1500 POS across China.

Business model”: brand management company that does operate the retail outlets. Revenue HKD650M for 2007 and consistently growing at >35% CAGR

Listed on SGX - similarly suffered a recent market value collapse. Market P/E now between 6-7X. Even at norm, P/E stand at 12-14X which is below peers in HK/PRC.

Potential for JeansWest and ColorZone to partner as both target “value-segment”

3 Case Quick Datasheet for Beauty China Recent Share Price (SGX, SGD) Results for FY2007 Key Financial Ratios vs Peers (HKD/RMB) Invest USD15-20M for 15-20% stake, @7X ;partner with management to “Create-Value” Consistently undervalued player in China’s growing cosmetic market, with substantial cash-in-hand (HKD200M+) Beauty China Shanghai Jahwa GZ Softto Key Brands Colorzone, Charming Lady Chinhei, cocool, maxam, etc Softto Retail Network 1500+ >3000 >2000 Exchange SGX Shanghai EX (600315) SZSE Revenue (2007) 650M 2.3B 500M EPS 0.45 0.6 0.3 P/E 7X 50X 26X Market Cap. 1.2B >50B 2.4B

Strategy Target Company Potential Value-Creation Target companies whose brands can become market leaders in the high growth segment of the consumer economy Target companies with strong brands Market size >USD30BN 2007; Segment growth@ 15-20% Companies whose valuation remains low Expand brand portfolio- strategic partnership with international cosmetic brands Review business model to consider new retail concept to further strengthen brand Matching company with potential buyers I the international arena Case 2 Target Companies in High-Growth/ Hi-value Consumer Segment

PROFILE Comestic Co Z

One of China’s leading local cosmetic brands with 2 brands targetting the mid-low and mid-hi segments, with over 1500 POS across China.

Business model”: brand management company that does operate the retail outlets. Revenue HKD650M for 2007 and consistently growing at >35% CAGR

Listed on SGX - similarly suffered a recent market value collapse. Market P/E now between 6-7X. Even at norm, P/E stand at 12-14X which is below peers in HK/PRC.

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