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Autocracy and Revolution in North Africa<br />Breakdown of the Region<br />
Autocrat: Zine el-Abedin (deposed)<br /> El -Abedin fled to Saudi Arabia after 23 years of authoritarian rule in the count...
Why Tunisia Failed<br />Cause: <br />Rising food prices, political corruption, inflation, freedom of speech and poor livin...
Autocrat: AbdelazizBouteflika<br />President of Algeria since 1999. In 2009, he amended the constitution to allow himself ...
Next to Fall?: Algeria<br />Warning signs:<br />Riots over food prices and widespread unemployment broke out in Algeria in...
Autocrat: President Hosni Mubarak <br />has ruled in Cairo for three decades, where an emergency law, which has been in ef...
Next to Fall?: Egypt<br />Warning signs:<br />Egypt has witnessed a wave of self-immolations in recent days, as outraged c...
Autocrat: Col. Muammar Qaddafi <br />Is The world's longest-serving head of state, having taken power in a military coup i...
Next to Fall?: Libya<br />Warning Signs: <br />Gaining reliable information out of Libya is difficult, but there have been...
Autocrat: Omar al-Bashir<br />Over the past two decades Bashir has become a master of the divide-and-conquer strategy, exp...
Next to Fall?: Sudan<br />Warning Signs:<br />As protesters in Khartoum took to the streets on Jan. 17, Sudanese oppositio...
U.S. and International Concerns<br />The United States has a vested interest in the region and keeps many alliances with t...
Latest from Egypt<br />Large scale demonstrations calling for the resignation of Hosni Mubarak  have occurred in Cairo and...
New State of Southern Sudan <br />Ethnic conflict that has gone on since the nation was formed in 1956 between the Arab-Mu...
The Failed State of Somalia<br />Technically, the country is governed by the Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Governm...
Authoritative Dictatorship in Eritrea<br />The Eritrean government maintains an iron grip on the country's political and s...
Human Rights Violations in Chad<br />Despite its substantial mineral wealth, Chad remains one of the world's poorest and l...
Western Saharan Independence<br />Western Sahara is the subject of a decades-long dispute between Morocco and the Algerian...
Al Qaeda in the Maghreb<br />In the harsh desert Sahel region of Algeria, Mali, and Mauritania, according to Moroccan and ...
North African Issues
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North African Issues

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Transcript of "North African Issues"

  1. 1. Autocracy and Revolution in North Africa<br />Breakdown of the Region<br />
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  3. 3. Autocrat: Zine el-Abedin (deposed)<br /> El -Abedin fled to Saudi Arabia after 23 years of authoritarian rule in the country. <br />
  4. 4. Why Tunisia Failed<br />Cause: <br />Rising food prices, political corruption, inflation, freedom of speech and poor living conditions.<br />Leaked diplomatic documents from the website Wikileaks exposed Tunisia’s corruption leading to massive protest.<br />Outlook: <br />Protests continue, free elections stated to be held in 6 months, government currently under the control of the an interim president and military.<br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2011/01/16/VI2011011601828.html<br />
  5. 5. Autocrat: AbdelazizBouteflika<br />President of Algeria since 1999. In 2009, he amended the constitution to allow himself to run for a third term and was overwhelmingly reelected in a contest that was boycotted by the opposition. Accused of failings to promote democracy or curtail Islamic insurgency.<br />
  6. 6. Next to Fall?: Algeria<br />Warning signs:<br />Riots over food prices and widespread unemployment broke out in Algeria in early January.<br />The unrest was sparked when the government announced a price hike on milk, sugar, and flour. Thousands of youths rioted in the capital city of Algiers, throwing rocks at security forces and burning down a police station<br />Algeria provides 20% of Europe's gas needs, and citizens are increasingly frustrated that the revenues are not being divvied up more equitably. <br />Outlook: <br />By late last week, Algeria's sizable internal security forces appeared to have the rioting under control. Things have since taken a darker turn, with five Algerian men setting themselves afire.<br />Although Bouteflika's regime is unpopular and increasingly undemocratic, it's not nearly as repressive as was Ben Ali's, which may make it harder for the opposition to build a mass movement for its ouster.<br />Additionally, there are no signs that Algeria's influential trade unions or opposition groups are willing to support the rioters -- who are mostly unemployed youths at this point.<br />
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  8. 8. Autocrat: President Hosni Mubarak <br />has ruled in Cairo for three decades, where an emergency law, which has been in effect for the duration of his tenure, gives him free rein to manipulate the political system. <br />
  9. 9. Next to Fall?: Egypt<br />Warning signs:<br />Egypt has witnessed a wave of self-immolations in recent days, as outraged citizens attempt to duplicate the popular protests caused by the suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi.<br />Coptic Christians have protested over the lack of protection from the government after a string of bombings perpetrated by factions of radical Islamists. <br />Thousands of Egyptians across the nation staged protests on the streets against Hosni Mubarak’s regime demanding political concessions including ending emergency laws, freedom for political activity and a limit on the president’s tenure in office<br />Protests have also occurred against corruption, poverty, unemployment and other sociopolitical grievances.<br />Outlook:<br />Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed AboulGheit dismissed suggestions that the Tunisian unrest could spread as "nonsense," complaining that those drawing the comparison were "promoting fantasies and trying to ignite the situation” <br /> Other Egyptian political players sounded a different note. Presidential contender and former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said that change in Egypt was "inevitable" following the events in Tunisia<br />http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2011/01/25/vo.egypt.protest1.cnn.html<br />
  10. 10. Autocrat: Col. Muammar Qaddafi <br />Is The world's longest-serving head of state, having taken power in a military coup in 1969. Libya is consistently ranked as one of the world's worst human rights abusers and least democratic countries. It is a totalitarian state with no freedom of the press and only token opposition parties; <br />
  11. 11. Next to Fall?: Libya<br />Warning Signs: <br />Gaining reliable information out of Libya is difficult, but there have been reports -- as well as some videos posted to YouTube -- of protests in the city of al-Bayda, including chanting crowds and fires in recent days.<br />Street protests used to be a nearly unheard of event in this highly repressive state. Likely in an effort to head off the food-price surges that provoked riots in neighboring Algeria and Tunisia, the Libyan government has slashed duties on imported food. <br />Outlook: <br />The aging Qadaffi has opened the question of who is likely to succeed him. His two sons Mutassim (the head of the nation’s powerful security agency) and Saif (supported of reform) have different ideologies and whomever wins the power struggle will most likely determine the path Libya takes.<br />
  12. 12. Autocrat: Omar al-Bashir<br />Over the past two decades Bashir has become a master of the divide-and-conquer strategy, expertly splitting opponents and fracturing political threats to his regime. A north-south civil war dominated his attention for his first 15 years in office. In the early 2000s, he was accused and charged with war crimes for his actions towards rebels in Darfur. In the capital Khartoum there have been frequent press crackdowns and intimidation of opposition parties. He won reelection in last year's presidential ballot -- after many opposition parties withdrew, fearing that it wouldn't be a fair contest<br />
  13. 13. Next to Fall?: Sudan<br />Warning Signs:<br />As protesters in Khartoum took to the streets on Jan. 17, Sudanese opposition leader Hassan al-Turabi had a message for Bashir. "What happened in Tunisia is a reminder, "This is likely to happen in Sudan … If it doesn't, then there will be a lot of bloodshed.”<br />Indeed, despite his characteristic strength, the threats against Bashir are mounting. On Jan. 9, the country's south began voting in a referendum that will likely see their secession from greater Sudan. The stakes are particularly high for Bashir because much of the country's oil wealth lies south of the presumed border (which is yet to be officially demarcated). Even in northern Sudan, discontent is brewing over the economy.<br />Outlook:<br />Bashiris struggling to control a current account deficit, which his administration has tried to combat by ending certain subsidies on fuel and basic goods.<br />Students flooded the streets to protest the price increases.Still, there is likely no revolution around the corner for Sudan. Turabi was arrested on Tuesday morning, along with a slew of fellow opposition members, after he publicly praised the Tunisian uprising and called for reform in Sudan<br />
  14. 14. U.S. and International Concerns<br />The United States has a vested interest in the region and keeps many alliances with the nations there. Although the U.S. would welcome regime change in Libya and Sudan, it is less supportive of it in Egypt.<br />There are numerous positive and negative outcomes that may come from this wave of popular revolts…<br />http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/18/tunisia.protests.region/index.html<br />
  15. 15. Latest from Egypt<br />Large scale demonstrations calling for the resignation of Hosni Mubarak have occurred in Cairo and other cities throughout Egypt.<br />Police have used tear gas and the military has been called in but nothing has weakened the resolve of the protesters.<br />Mubarak has vowed reform, has appointed his intelligence minister as successor and has said he will not run for re-election, but still the protests continue.<br />Pro-Mubarak rallies have begun as well putting a larger strain on the country; Foreigners fearing for their safety have fled the country in great mass.<br />
  16. 16. New State of Southern Sudan <br />Ethnic conflict that has gone on since the nation was formed in 1956 between the Arab-Muslim population in the North and the Black-Christian/Animist population has appeared to come to an amicable end.<br />Votes for secession by the south has been widely supported and as early as July 2011 the world will welcome its newest state.<br />Worries remain about the possibility of war between the North and South if independence is gained despite the promises of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir.<br />The main issue may be over the location of oil reserves that are found primarily within the borders of Southern Sudan.<br />
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  18. 18. The Failed State of Somalia<br />Technically, the country is governed by the Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), but its actual control is minimal. There are no effective political parties, and the political process is driven largely by clan loyalty.<br />Conflict continued in Somalia throughout 2008 between the TFG and insurgent groups, including the Islamist militant group al-Shabab, causing further civilian deaths and the displacement of thousands of Somalis, particularly from the capital, Mogadishu.<br />Attacks against aid workers increased during the year, significantly reducing the activities of many United Nations agencies and nongovernmental organizations.<br />Rampant piracy as well as independence movements in the province of Somaliland and Puntland have further destabilized the region.<br />
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  20. 20. Authoritative Dictatorship in Eritrea<br />The Eritrean government maintains an iron grip on the country's political and social structures.<br />National elections have been postponed indefinitely, independent political parties do not exist, and the government controls all broadcast media and restricts independent print publications.Journalists arrested in a 2001 crackdown remain in prison.<br />The country's long-standing suppression of democratic and human rights at home is accompanied by an aggressive foreign policy, which has included conflict with Ethiopia, support for antigovernment rebels in Somalia, tension with Yemen, and meddling in Sudanese civil conflicts.<br />
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  22. 22. Human Rights Violations in Chad<br />Despite its substantial mineral wealth, Chad remains one of the world's poorest and least developed countries.<br />Corruption related to the misuse of oil revenues is rampant within the inner circle of President IdrissDéby, who took power in a military coup in 1990.<br />Ethnic and political conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands of Chadians from their homes, and human rights groups have accused both security forces, like the young soldiers shown here, and rebel groups of killing and torturing civilians with impunity.<br />After a failed coup attempt in 2008, the government arrested opposition figures and imposed new restrictions on the press.<br />
  23. 23. Western Saharan Independence<br />Western Sahara is the subject of a decades-long dispute between Morocco and the Algerian-backed rebel group, the Polisario Front.<br />Morocco controls local elections, severely restricts freedom of assembly, and denies nomadic Saharans, or Sahrawis, their right to form independent political or non-governmental organizations. Sahrawi activists face harassment, arbitrary detention, and torture.<br />Moroccan authorities regularly use force when quelling demonstrations and riots in Sahrawi villages. Above, Sahrawi women stand behind the fence of a refugee camp.<br />
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  25. 25. Al Qaeda in the Maghreb<br />In the harsh desert Sahel region of Algeria, Mali, and Mauritania, according to Moroccan and Mauritanian government sources, some Marxist nationalists are colluding with Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). <br />In recent months, the group has abducted Westerners for hefty ransoms, trafficked arms and drugs from Latin cartels, and bombed sites in Algeria and Mauritania.<br />AQIM is taking advantage of the poverty in nations such as Mali and Mauritania as well as the nationalist movement in Western Sahara. 
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