Transcript of "Uttarpradesh- Political Scenario before general election 2014"
Uttar Pradesh - 2014 General Elections
No. of seats: 80 (17 SC category reserved seats + 63 Non reserved general seats)
Highest number of seats, most crucial state in terms of overall result
Election Dates: 10 April (Phase 3), 17 April (Phase 5), 24 April (Phase 6), 30 April (Phase 7), 07
May (Phase 8), 12 May (Phase 9)
For breakage of constituencies:
Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP),
Indian National Congress (INC),
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),
Samajwadi Party (SP),
Communist Party of India (CPI) & (CPI-Marxist),
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD),
Possible major alliances: BSP (Mayawati) + INC (UPA) (Just a speculation)
BJP + RLD
Clash of the Titans: BJP v/s two big regional players (BSP, SP)
Stats from 2009 Elections:
Party Name No of seats won
NDA Alliance (total) 15
Points in Favor for NaMo:
• At nearly 20% of the population, Muslims are in a position to influence results in at least 40 seats
across the state, especially if they put their weight behind one party or candidate.
The BJP's success, thus, depends heavily on keeping this vote divided, preferably split three
ways between the Congress, SP and BSP, to allow saffron candidates to squeak through with less
than 30% of the vote in our first-past-the-post system.
• Declining Congress, going by the exit polls result- Congress is least likely to create any
• If MODI can top the BJP's best ever tally of 57 in 1998, he will have the satisfaction of breaking
Atal Bihari Vajpayee's record. If opinion polls are to be believed, Modi is well on course.
• BJP has been strengthened further by the communalised atmosphere in the state after the
Muzaffarnagar riots. The violence has reopened old wounds that never quite healed in the wake
of the BJP's divisive Ram Mandir agitation.
Points that might affect BJP:
• If there's anything that can stop the Modi juggernaut, it's a Congress-BSP prepoll alliance. The
win ability quotient of this alliance has always been high, but never more so than today when
the Muslim vote is likely to play a key role in shaping the outcome in UP.
• A Dalit-Muslim power bloc would be formidable and could well upset Modi's applecart. There
are around 50 Lok Sabha constituencies where Dalits and Muslims together make up over 40%
of the electorate.
• And if Brahmins come on board, it would revive Indira Gandhi's winning social alliance with
which the Congress fought back peasant leader Charan Singh's Jat-OBC combine in the 1970s.
• Muslims are looking at the BSP in a big way for the first time. Their "Maulana" Mulayam has
crashed from his pedestal after the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar. Surely, the Congress
doesn't look a winner in 2014.
Expected Winner: NDA Alliance with 40+ seats (However, BSP and SP can create problems in gaining
Surprise Elements: Congress-BSP alliance.
Star Factors: Mohammed Kaif (Congress), Ravi Kishan (BJP), Jaya Prada (RLD)